News Forum - Tourism ministry wants Thailand fully re-opened, without quarantine, by January

[Bob20]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/special-reports/2180351/rose-of-north-set-to-bloom

The ignorance is stunning and I'm tired of refuting the nonsense they continue to peddle.

[KaptainRob]

19 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/special-reports/2180351/rose-of-north-set-to-bloom

The ignorance is stunning and I'm tired of refuting the nonsense they continue to peddle.

The outgoing Governor wasn't going to open, this new one(?) hasn't a clue to what lies ahead if they proceed with this ridiculous seal route plan.  It may leak like a colander and covid cases will surely rise.

Already we're seeing many southern Thai's escaping to CM and bringing Covid with them. 

The only new foreigners I've seen in recent weeks are Chinese, quite large family groups, possibly from Hong Kong or the Mainland.  Several of their homes, that had been empty for many months, now have brand new red-plated vehicles garaged.  This indicates they've entered via Phuket or BKK ASQ which IMHO remain the best options available for returnees to Chiang Mai.

[Bob20]

It is a gigantic error to, AGAIN, first DO, and THINK later.

First you vaccinate.

And the numbers quoted are overstated BY FAR.

Thailand now states it has given 39m vaccinations (1st and 2nd together). I don't think they can even show they received that many...

And CM is NOT at all on track for 70% vaccination level for October. That would mean that TODAY we need to have 70% vaccinated with 2 jabs, as it's not fully effective until a few weeks after the 2nd jab. CM isn't at even 20%!

Continuing to say that travellers will be vaccinated is irrelevant! They can pick up and carry the virus at any time. And the CM locals aren't vaccinated, so will be at risk. The reason other areas have kept infections at bay, is self-control. It is criminal to allow or promote movement before properly protecting the people.

Continuing to quote the numbers of visitors and the associated money is irrelevant too. Because no such numbers will come and no such money will be received. Thailand is on many red lists and it will be a drop in the ocean.

It's AGAIN taking BIG risks with the people for LITTLE financial benefit.

 

[KaptainRob]

A number of off-topic posts have been removed.  

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

5 hours ago, PhayakPeter said:

The UK are scrapping expensive travel pcr tests

Are the scrapping quarantine as well?

5 hours ago, PhayakPeter said:

I hope Thailand do what they do best, COPY. 

As it does rake in a lot of baht, as shown by two months of Phuket Sandbox, PCR testing may just continue in Phuket Sandboxing, and hence others that copy this scheme.

[Chaimai]

52 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

It is a gigantic error to, AGAIN, first DO, and THINK later.

First you vaccinate.

And the numbers quoted are overstated BY FAR.

Thailand now states it has given 39m vaccinations (1st and 2nd together). I don't think they can even show they received that many...

And CM is NOT at all on track for 70% vaccination level for October. That would mean that TODAY we need to have 70% vaccinated with 2 jabs, as it's not fully effective until a few weeks after the 2nd jab. CM isn't at even 20%!

Continuing to say that travellers will be vaccinated is irrelevant! They can pick up and carry the virus at any time. And the CM locals aren't vaccinated, so will be at risk. The reason other areas have kept infections at bay, is self-control. It is criminal to allow or promote movement before properly protecting the people.

Continuing to quote the numbers of visitors and the associated money is irrelevant too. Because no such numbers will come and no such money will be received. Thailand is on many red lists and it will be a drop in the ocean.

It's AGAIN taking BIG risks with the people for LITTLE financial benefit.

 

 

Bob, just because you don't believe the numbers doesn't make them wrong. Of course they have had more than 39m doses. 

 

Many things in Thailand I wouldn't trust but vaccination numbers held on a national data basis are something that I would have more faith in.

I do agree that Chiang Mai are being hopeful - but again, most of the reportage is coming from the likes of TAT who have a vested interest in talking up numbers.

 

We have to get back to something resembling normality as quickly as possible. The rest of the world is doing that and have shown that 'living with Covid' is possible once vaccinations are at an appropriate level and the risk of death is unlikely and the risk of hospitalisation is vastly reduced.

 

Thailand were behind the game with their vaccination programme, they were also caught out with the Delta variant that made some earlier, quite logical, decisions look flawed. They have been doing nearly a million jabs some days - that should be applauded. Look for faults you will find many of them, but that sort of number is progress and will support the 'catch up'; I think 28m jabs are forecast for September?

 

If places like Chiang Mai want to open up (and I firmly believe they should) then greater geographical emphasis has to be directed to such places. The much reduced vaccination numbers at weekends are ridiculous; why not vaccinated around the clock in key areas (ie CM).

 

[Bob20]

50 minutes ago, Chaimai said:

Bob, just because you don't believe the numbers doesn't make them wrong. Of course they have had more than 39m doses. 

Many things in Thailand I wouldn't trust but vaccination numbers held on a national data basis are something that I would have more faith in.

I do agree that Chiang Mai are being hopeful - but again, most of the reportage is coming from the likes of TAT who have a vested interest in talking up numbers.

We have to get back to something resembling normality as quickly as possible. The rest of the world is doing that and have shown that 'living with Covid' is possible once vaccinations are at an appropriate level and the risk of death is unlikely and the risk of hospitalisation is vastly reduced.

Thailand were behind the game with their vaccination programme, they were also caught out with the Delta variant that made some earlier, quite logical, decisions look flawed. They have been doing nearly a million jabs some days - that should be applauded. Look for faults you will find many of them, but that sort of number is progress and will support the 'catch up'; I think 28m jabs are forecast for September?

If places like Chiang Mai want to open up (and I firmly believe they should) then greater geographical emphasis has to be directed to such places. The much reduced vaccination numbers at weekends are ridiculous; why not vaccinated around the clock in key areas (ie CM).

Well...

Firstly there is NO national database with any details underwriting the numbers that are thrown out. 

Secondly, we have been vaccinating about 4, maybe 5 months, with HUGE supply problems. There is no way that 8-10 million vaccines were available per month (on average) and the infrastructure was not available to jab that many.

Thirdly, you are making the same mistake of planning to open up, BEFORE the preparations are done. Nobody I speak with wants CM open, from small shop owners to foodstalls to restaurants to hotels. There are daily outbreaks and clusters here which are of enough concern already. People are scared and uncomfortable. Completely understandable with the current vaccination levels.

The only thing you have right is that they need to vaccinate. If necessary around the clock.

And AFTER 70% (minimum) is double jabbed and two more weeks have passed (minimum) THEN you open up.

And EVEN THEN it will NOT bring the number of people and the money they promise.

[Badspotteddog]

On 9/7/2021 at 9:45 AM, Bob20 said:

Something to be said for it, but it's the same debate for smokers, obese, anti-vaxx and a million more...

What about people like 2 of our family members, who cannot ever have another vaccine due to life threatening, previous adverse reactions? But we're otherwise healthy. I have not seen any consideration for people like us.

[Bob20]

2 minutes ago, Badspotteddog said:

What about people like 2 of our family members, who cannot ever have another vaccine due to life threatening, previous adverse reactions? But we're otherwise healthy. I have not seen any consideration for people like us.

Pharma and medical profession are always looking for solutions. If they are not available (yet) that is tragic. That means they will need to remain very careful, like the whole world had to do until a solution became available. It's without doubt tough, but they are not the only two, and it's not the only condition that leaves people isolated either...

[Chaimai]

45 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Well...

Firstly there is NO national database with any details underwriting the numbers that are thrown out. 

Secondly, we have been vaccinating about 4, maybe 5 months, with HUGE supply problems. There is no way that 8-10 million vaccines were available per month (on average) and the infrastructure was not available to jab that many.

Thirdly, you are making the same mistake of planning to open up, BEFORE the preparations are done. Nobody I speak with wants CM open, from small shop owners to foodstalls to restaurants to hotels. There are daily outbreaks and clusters here which are of enough concern already. People are scared and uncomfortable. Completely understandable with the current vaccination levels.

The only thing you have right is that they need to vaccinate. If necessary around the clock.

And AFTER 70% (minimum) is double jabbed and two more weeks have passed (minimum) THEN you open up.

And EVEN THEN it will NOT bring the number of people and the money they promise.

 

 

Don't open then.

 

In Hua Hin, Chonburi, Rayong and the south islands they would give their right arm to open.

 

Doesn't take a brain surgeon to see where the vast majority of cases occur.

 

Vaccinate frontline employees, protect the vulnerable and step forward carefully.

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, AdamX said:

... the current medications that are being labelled as vaccines do not provide immunity (snip) or if a true vaccine is developed.

A "true vaccine"?

Name any vaccine that gives full, sterile immunity from any virus.

Any at all.

Good luck!

[Stonker]

50 minutes ago, Badspotteddog said:

What about people like 2 of our family members, who cannot ever have another vaccine due to life threatening, previous adverse reactions? But we're otherwise healthy. I have not seen any consideration for people like us.

The "consideration" for those who can't be vaccinated is from those being vaccinated, as while that won't stop transmission it will reduce it so there's less chance of they're being infected.

The consideration for them from the anti-vaxxers, who just use them as as an excuse,  is ... well ... zero.

[AdamX]

24 minutes ago, Stonker said:

A "true vaccine"?

Name any vaccine that gives full, sterile immunity from any virus.

Any at all.

Good luck!

A vaccine with a 50% reinfection rate is not worthy of the name.

You cant redefine words according to your whims,

 

Edited September 12, 2021 by AdamX

[Bob20]

29 minutes ago, Chaimai said:Vaccinate frontline employees, protect the vulnerable and step forward carefully.

 

Vaccinate the majority (not just front line employees, because it effects everyone), THEN open carefully. Correct.

But we're a long way off yet

Don't make the mistake of misinterpretating my caution as not wanting to open and regain freedom. I want that as well. But NOT only for myself while too many remain at risk.

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, AdamX said:

Therefore it is logical that there more people that have natural immunity than are vaccinated at the moment.

No, not "logical" at all. Where the vaccination level is high there'll be more, where it's low there'll be less.

Simples.

An increasing number of the vaccinated will also have natural immunity and vice-versa, depending on if they were vaccinated before or after being infected, so it's not a case of one or the other any more but both - and both give far the best protection which is how things will inevitably end up. 

[Chaimai]

20 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Vaccinate the majority (not just front line employees, because it effects everyone), THEN open carefully. Correct.

But we're a long way off yet

Don't make the mistake of misinterpretating my caution as not wanting to open and regain freedom. I want that as well. But NOT only for myself while too many remain at risk.

 

 

I believe that we only differ on the timing/criteria for opening. I do not advocate open and be damned....but I do advocate sooner rather than later.

 

I think it has to be a risk/reward decision................. not 100% and also 100% reward....

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, AdamX said:

Therefore, assuming that the medications do not disrupt natural immunity, its safe to assume that we have already reached herd immunity.

Its only Pharma that wants to redefine herd immunity as the percentage of that population that have used their products instead of the actual definition which is in the name ie. Immunity.

Your assumptions are based on fallacies, @AdamX.

The idea of 70 or 75% for herd immunity has long gone, except amongst the TAT crowd. It was based on a low 'r' number, not much more than 1, and vaccine efficiency of at least 95%+, neither of which are correct any more.

"Pharma" don't "want to redefine herd immunity" at all - they're not even talking about it any more. Only the TAT crowd and the like are, as it's ancient history and a flawed concept for Covid as it's too contagious.

"Pharma" aren't talking about "immunity" any more, nor are informed government and scientists - it's now about protection, not immunity.

[Stonker]

3 hours ago, Bob20 said:

 

First you vaccinate.

And the numbers quoted are overstated BY FAR

 

 

2 hours ago, Chaimai said:

Bob, just because you don't believe the numbers doesn't make them wrong. Of course they have had more than 39m doses. 

I may well be wrong, again, but I think you may be talking at cross purposes.

The number of vaccines received has been confirmed by not just the manufacturers (AZ, Pfizer, Sinovac and Sinopharm) but by those giving and selling them (AZ, and the Chinese, Japanese, Singapore and American embassies, etc) so they can hardly be in much doubt. 

If anything, the question would be the opposite: why have they occasionally run out of vaccines when more have been received than have been jabbed?

Where I think claims are exaggerated and the controversy comes is with percentages, not "numbers", as you get into the moving goalposts of percentages of the actual population vs percentages of the target population, where there's a lot more scope for being economical with the truth.

[Stonker]

56 minutes ago, AdamX said:

A vaccine with a 50% reinfection rate is not worthy of the name

I'm not surprised you avoided the question and couldn't name any that you consider a "true vaccine", giving full sterile immunity as you describe, as there aren't any.

They're the Holy Grail, so sought after but as yet unfound.

Covid vaccines give varying protection, but even if you include Sinowhatever when coupled with AZ, Pfizer or Moderna they give protection on a par with others - better than some, worse than others - and are likely to need a similar number of jabs - more than some, less than others.

I don't see many people complaining about the number of jabs they've had for tetanus or flu, for example, or their effectiveness.

[Bob20]

47 minutes ago, Stonker said:

I may well be wrong, again, but I think you may be talking at cross purposes.

The number of vaccines received has been confirmed by not just the manufacturers (AZ, Pfizer, Sinovac and Sinopharm) but by those giving and selling them (AZ, and the Chinese, Japanese, Singapore and American embassies, etc) so they can hardly be in much doubt. 

If anything, the question would be the opposite: why have they occasionally run out of vaccines when more have been received than have been jabbed?

Where I think claims are exaggerated and the controversy comes is with percentages, not "numbers", as you get into the moving goalposts of percentages of the actual population vs percentages of the target population, where there's a lot more scope for being economical with the truth.

Well, I'd be very interested where you find actually delivered numbers and actually jabbed numbers, because I can not get them. Yes, you can see CCSA predictions and hopes. But no confirmed reliable numbers.

The most I can find is what we are told has been ordered (with cancellation and reordering) or donated. Not what is actually delivered.

And even western countries of similar size couldn't jab 8-10m per months when they started and even now would have trouble with that. I think people that go into far more detail than we realise that too and that may well have something to do with the red-listing. Because in actual infections and deaths there were countries far worse than Thailand that have managed to stay off it.

But if you have the actual reliable info, I'd be happy to see it.

BTW, chaimai and I are indeed in principle not far off. I just am less trusting of the figures we are given and I don't like to take the same risks with other people's health for some small reward. After 18 months an extra month until we are sure enough people are vaccinated and the vaccine had had time to do its job is well worth it.

[oldcpu]

4 hours ago, Bob20 said:

Thailand now states it has given 39m vaccinations (1st and 2nd together). I don't think they can even show they received that many...

 

Actually - 39-million reads to be about right in terms of # of jabs:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccination_in_Thailand

* AZ = 16.16 million jabs given
* Sinovac = 14.4 million jabs given
* J&J = ? unknown jabs given (maybe 0.1 million ??)
* Pfizer - wiki says about 1.5 million jabs given, but given USA donated 4.5 million its likely more than 1.5 million

* Sinopharm - close to 9 million jabs given

I think 39-million is possibly a good number. 

Although another web site suggest the number is lower:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations  (which gives about 26.63-million of at least one jab ... and 11.63 of 2 jabs - which if added up is about  38.26 million)

Edited September 12, 2021 by oldcpu

[Bob20]

1 hour ago, Stonker said:

I may well be wrong, again, but I think you may be talking at cross purposes.

The number of vaccines received has been confirmed by not just the manufacturers (AZ, Pfizer, Sinovac and Sinopharm) but by those giving and selling them (AZ, and the Chinese, Japanese, Singapore and American embassies, etc) so they can hardly be in much doubt. 

If anything, the question would be the opposite: why have they occasionally run out of vaccines when more have been received than have been jabbed?

Where I think claims are exaggerated and the controversy comes is with percentages, not "numbers", as you get into the moving goalposts of percentages of the actual population vs percentages of the target population, where there's a lot more scope for being economical with the truth.

Can I just add that the UK has been vaccinating since middle of December last year and has done just over double of what Thailand claim? In 9 months, without supply problems, jabbing all over the country non-stop, not just mainly in the capital.

I don't see how 40m here could be even remotely possible in 4-5 months with at least half of that time doing nothing because of shortages and the rest of the time doing mostly only BKK. But I'm happy to be proven wrong.

(Of course we also need to take into account the difference in vaccines, but I'm happy with the numbers for now)

[Soidog]

28 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Can I just add that the UK has been vaccinations since middle if December last year and has done just over double if what Thailand claim? In 9 months, without supply problems, jabbing all over the country non-stop, not just mainly in the capital. I don't see how 40m here could be even remotely possible in 4-5 months with at least half of that time doing nothing because of shortages and the rest if the time doing mostly only BKK. But I'm happy to be proven wrong.

Common sense and for anyone who has spent more than a few holidays in Thailand will know, there is something not right with the data coming out of Thailand.  The U.K. has done 92 million jabs in 9 months. Apart from a couple of weeks back in April, where supplies dipped slightly, the U.K. has had no supply problems and an army of medical staff using centralised databases to send out appointments slots. The idea that Thailand, with all of its supply problems, chaotic registrations, add-hoc strategies and ever changing priorities could have achieved 39 million (42%) in 4 months seems like a fisherman’s story if ever there was one. 
As far as I know, there is no independent auditing of these numbers, and so just like their unemployment figures are meaningless. 

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Well, I'd be very interested where you find actually delivered numbers and actually jabbed numbers, because I can not get them. Yes, you can see CCSA predictions and hopes. But no confirmed reliable numbers.

The most I can find is what we are told has been ordered (with cancellation and reordering) or donated. Not what is actually delivered.

And even western countries of similar size couldn't jab 8-10m per months when they started and even now would have trouble with that. I think people that go into far more detail than we realise that too and that may well have something to do with the red-listing. Because in actual infections and deaths there were countries far worse than Thailand that have managed to stay off it.

But if you have the actual reliable info, I'd be happy to see it.

BTW, chaimai and I are indeed in principle not far off. I just am less trusting of the figures we are given and I don't like to take the same risks with other people's health for some small reward. After 18 months an extra month until we are sure enough people are vaccinated and the vaccine had had time to do its job is well worth it.

The embassies have reported deliveries, as I said, as have the manufacturers and all these have been reported here.

A quick, 10 second search and you get them all, such as https://thethaiger.com/news/national/3-million-sinovac-doses-arrive-in-bangkok-from-china which alone details 25 million Sinovac!

If you don't believe what the Embassies say, I really don't know who you'll believe unless you count them yourself.

[Bob20]

2 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Common sense and for anyone who has spent more than a few holidays in Thailand will know, there is something not right with the data coming out of Thailand.  The U.K. has done 92 million jabs in 9 months. Apart from a couple of weeks back in April, where supplies dipped slightly, the U.K. has had no supply problems and an army of medical staff using centralised databases to send out appointments slots. The idea that Thailand, with all of its supply problems, chaotic registrations, add-hoc strategies and ever changing priorities could have achieved 39 million (42%) in 4 months seems like a fisherman’s story if ever there was one. 
As far as I know, there is no independent auditing of these numbers, and so just like their unemployment figures are meaningless. 

Yes, I absolutely agree.  

Yet some seem to be thinking differently here.

And going along with it just creates repeated Phuket stories, but worse as it can't be contained like on an island elsewhere.

Covid already causes extra deaths and lots of misery.

Early decisions without proper protection just add totally unnecessary deaths and disease on top!