News Forum - Thai medic says most Omicron cases mild or asymptomatic, expects jump in numbers

[DiJoDavO]

5 minutes ago, vvdb.fr said:

I read and I synthesized

- when Omicron arrived in UK the Delta virus was circulating a lot

- winter in UK (indoor population) vs summer in SA

- many AS are immune by the successive waves of Beta and Delta

- average age in AS of 28 years old

- many overweight people in UK vs SA

- vaccine protects against severe forms, not disease, vaccinees are contagious less time.

Now you have described the UK, how about the negative parts of South Africa.... Just a quick search, I see that South Africa is not exactly the world's healthiest country. More one of the unhealthy countries. 

[Poolie]

29 minutes ago, DiJoDavO said:

I'd like to add to that, track current cases. Not like at the begin of the 'pandemic' only the totals. The number of current cases in Thailand was always pretty low, but they kept adding it up only to show the total cases (which looks way scarier). 

In the news it has always only been about deaths, never about how many people recovered. Maybe they should report that. Have a bit of positive news for a change. 

I've been keeping a passing interest in that, from a point of view where more recover and are discharged from quarantine than are admitted.  Interestingly (depending on your level of boredom) there have been more discharges than admissions every day except for one in the last three months or so.

[Rain]

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

I'd like to add to that, track current cases. Not like at the begin of the 'pandemic' only the totals. The number of current cases in Thailand was always pretty low, but they kept adding it up only to show the total cases (which looks way scarier). 

In the news it has always only been about deaths, never about how many people recovered. Maybe they should report that. Have a bit of positive news for a change. 

Simply - of the last two years the ideals of the overwhelming percentage [98.4] of recovered, asymptomatic, mild instances isn't marketable, less newsworthy. Even when it's real.

Needing to keep the populations in bogus fear and angst is what it's all about. 

As time passes, much of the populations are beginning to awaken as to the reality of this manufactured mess.

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

Who needs to say what, to make you say: hmm, Covid is officially not dangerous anymore? 

Someone who knows what they're talking about.

So far nobody who does has suggested there's any sign if that.

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

Can you still answer my question from the previous post? Because I'd like to have a view from a covid expert on this one. 

How can the UK (70.3% vaccination rate) suffer so much more from Omicron than where it was discovered; South Africa (26.6% vaccination rate)?

In South Africa they have no clue what they are crying about in Europe. 

 Answered - look at what the Covid experts say (paraphrased by @vvdb.fr).

Vaccines have always only ever been part of the solution.

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, BraveNewFahrenheit said:

Shame that the health care systems are not prepared now after 2 years and trillions of dollars.

Agreed 100%.

Throwing money at the wrong thing seldom solves anything, and if the UK hadn't wasted $50 billion on a testing system that every government committee said was a total failure, and kept on throwing money at it, maybe its health care system would be better.

Just an example .....

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

In the news it has always only been about deaths, never about how many people recovered. Maybe they should report that. Have a bit of positive news for a change. 

Maybe you need to look at other news channels.

Current cases and numbers recovered and discharged from hospital and ICU are on Thai TV and Thai PBS every day, several times a day.

[Manu]

7 hours ago, gundam0315 said:

are you scared?

Well yeah

[Rain]

2 minutes ago, Manu said:

Well yeah

Why?

[Rookiescot]

7 hours ago, gundam0315 said:

are you scared?

If you are unvaccinated you should be. The majority of people being hospitalised, even with the less fatal omicron variant, are the basement dwellers who make up a minority of the population.

There is a certain level of delicious irony there.

[DiJoDavO]

2 hours ago, Stonker said:

 

 Answered - look at what the Covid experts say (paraphrased by @vvdb.fr).

Vaccines have always only ever been part of the solution.

That's an easy way to get rid of the question. Btw, looking back at the reply to him, you could notice I got a bit confused because of some typos and I might have read too quickly there. 

In this message a better response:

4 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

- winter in UK (indoor population) vs summer in SA

Summer or winter, didn't actually matter much in your eyes. Thailand is hot and still has to be VERY cautious, lockdown etc. 

4 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

- many AS are immune by the successive waves of Beta and Delta

How would they get natural immunity? Maybe from actually getting it? They seem to be way better off now then. I wonder what currently appears to be better then... 

4 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

many overweight people in UK vs SA

And still people want parks and gyms to stay closed. Result = overweight

It's as if in every option they had, they chose the wrong one. 

Vaccines are brought up by many people and linked to less Covid, because they should work. But the weird thing is that South Africa is barely vaccinated and just deals with Omicron like a cold + they don't make it a big deal. 

Some good points were made by@vvdb.frby@vvdb.fr but nowadays more and more news gets out that not only in South Africa it's very very mild. It's just very very mild in general. See this news article. 

If Omicron is so scary as the media makes it, how could an almost completely unvaccinated population just handle it without trouble? And why are a bunch of almost fully vaccinated countries pretending it's the end of the world? With the current news getting out, I think we should also take a look at the unnecessary panic created by media and government. Some people saw it coming already, but a lot of people got in shock, for what just was a very mild flu. 

This article is literally news about doctors saying it's just a very mild flu. I've also seen some articles from western news on 'good news' on Omicron. So what I always have said is now more mainstream. It's not a bad thing to have your own view on things. 

But now there's positive news, you still seem not to believe it, even though it's more mainstream. I kind of understand as sometimes I can't believe my eyes too if I see a positive news article.

[Marc26]

3 hours ago, Stonker said:

Agreed 100%.

Throwing money at the wrong thing seldom solves anything, and if the UK hadn't wasted $50 billion on a testing system that every government committee said was a total failure, and kept on throwing money at it, maybe its health care system would be better.

Just an example .....

What should govt's do to better prepare?

 

They can't fix the overworked front line workers

They can't waste money, as has been lamented, on extra beds that they don't know when will be used

 

I don't know what else they could do but be reactionary when surges hit

Isn't that basically what healthcare is, reactionary?

[gundam0315]

3 hours ago, Manu said:

Well yeah

you should just stay home and don't travel, in fact just don't go outside your house... ever 

[astro]

21 minutes ago, gundam0315 said:

you should just stay home and don't travel, in fact just don't go outside your house... ever 

Is that what you do?

[astro]

6 hours ago, BraveNewFahrenheit said:

It's tragic maybe the nurses will not have enough time to do their tik tok videos.  Shame that the health care systems are not prepared now after 2 years and trillions of dollars.

Yeah, ICU  nurses have nothing better to do than post tik tok vids.

And you're still wondering why your responses aren't taken seriously....

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

That's an easy way to get rid of the question

You mean telling you that if you want to know a "Covid expert"'s opinion you should ask a Covid expert?

I didn't comment on anything @vvdb.fr said beyond saying he'd paraphrased some of the arguments, so your assumptions of what I think "doesn't matter very much" are pretty imaginative.

The key difference, which is the only one I emphasised but which you've ignored, is the age difference.

27 in S Africa vs 41 in UK and Thailand and 43 in Europe.

That massively affects not just the numbers most affected by Omicron but the numbers who were previously infected by other variants but who recovered and got whatever immunity they have.

Yes, natural immunity is better than vaccinated immunity but only if you're not affected by the infection (or dead) so that's not much use to an older population.

Similarly, while it's only a "very mild flu" for far more people than Delta, it's still serious for some and when far more are affected then it's serious for the same number but not the same proportion - far fewer who are infected are hospitalised, but for those who are it isn't a "mild flu".

It really isn't rocket science if you look at the basics.

As for the article and other reports being "good news", maybe you need to read it again as well as some of the posts.

If 2% of those who catch Omicron are "serious" cases, as he says, and it has an 'r' number of 3 - 5 and is at least five times as infectious as Delta, as is generally reported, and 1 in 8 hospitalised as a "serious" case dies as has happened in the UK, then you end up with far more serious cases and deaths than Thailand has now.

Do the maths - it's not complicated.

... and you think that's "good news" ?

 

[gundam0315]

1 hour ago, astro said:

Is that what you do?

no i'm not scared like you 

[Freeduhdumb]

As usual, I see a lot of "beliefs" and "hopes" and "coulds" being reported here... is this how they promulgate public healthy policy too? Lol. Let's get real people... where's the data to support these claims? All we ever get is a constant onslaught of unsubstantiated reporting of opinions. Where's the data that is actually useful; actual hospital admission rates of symptomatic patients and deaths? Undefined "Cases" and "infections" and "asymptomatic admissions" tell us very little. In fact I would argue these useless data actual obfuscate the issue. 

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, Marc26 said:

What should govt's do to better prepare?

Make contingency plans?

Only a couple of years before the pandemic, the UK had 'war-gamed' a major pandemic, which told them that they needed more PPE and specialist equipment such as ventilators as a reserve.

Instead of taking that on board, they lowered their stock even more!

2 hours ago, Marc26 said:

They can't fix the overworked front line workers

Why not?

Improve the pay and conditions and you improve recruiting and retention and they're not overworked any more.

2 hours ago, Marc26 said:

They can't waste money, as has been lamented, on extra beds that they don't know when will be used

If they don't have enough beds in the first place then they know the extra beds will be used!

 

2 hours ago, Marc26 said:

Isn't that basically what healthcare is, reactionary?

No, not if it's any good - it's anticipatory.

[Marc26]

7 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Make contingency plans?

Only a couple of years before the pandemic, the UK had 'war-gamed' a major pandemic, which told them that they needed more PPE and specialist equipment such as ventilators as a reserve.

Instead of taking that on board, they lowered their stock even more!

Why not?

Improve the pay and conditions and you improve recruiting and retention and they're not overworked any more.

If they don't have enough beds in the first place then they know the extra beds will be used!

No, not if it's any good - it's anticipatory.

Yes the PPE was a failure

 

Improve the pay, well it's not like nurses are sitting home day trading instead of nursing, all nurses are basically working and they get paid pretty damn well already with more money being thrown at them.

 

They have enough beds for regular healthcare needs but how do you add beds you don't use most of the time?

I guess some sort of expansion subsidised by the govt possibly

 

But I just don't see how they do much different battling a pandemic that comes in stages

 

 

I do think you can apply most you say to our govt's responses.

It seems they are so reactionary when you can see the issue coming months ahead and then they are 1-2 months behind

[samiam123]

13 hours ago, astro said:

"Most" infections are mild, but a steep increase in cases may still produce enough serious infections to overload the health care system.

That's not scaremongering, it's facing reality.

Hospitalization numbers are only up slighting in the UK and S. Africa, and the vast majority are unvaxxed.  That is facing reality.  So yes this is scaremongering imo.

Edited December 27, 2021 by samiam123

[Stonker]

18 minutes ago, Marc26 said:

Yes the PPE was a failure

Improve the pay, well it's not like nurses are sitting home day trading instead of nursing, all nurses are basically working and they get paid pretty damn well already with more money being thrown at them.

They have enough beds for regular healthcare needs but how do you add beds you don't use most of the time?

I guess some sort of expansion subsidised by the govt possibly

But I just don't see how they do much different battling a pandemic that comes in stages

I do think you can apply most you say to our govt's responses.

It seems they are so reactionary when you can see the issue coming months ahead and then they are 1-2 months behind

Sorry, I can't agree with you about pay - before it was enough to attract a pile of Eastern Europeans.

Now, with the Brexit changes, it isn't and it's not attracting Asians or Commonwealth either.

It may be a reasonable pay scale to some, but obviously it's not enough.

Enough beds, with some left unused?

Where?   What about the waiting lists, although it's no good having beds without staff.

You can't just give people a clap and a cheer, whether it's nurses, GP's or anyone else and expect them to be happy - particularly when you waste 50 billion on a useless test and trace system and value  bean counters more than front-line medics.

I think we're probably drifting off topic, though ...

[Marc26]

17 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Sorry, I can't agree with you about pay - before it was enough to attract a pile of Eastern Europeans.

Now, with the Brexit changes, it isn't and it's not attracting Asians or Commonwealth either.

It may be a reasonable pay scale to some, but obviously it's not enough.

Enough beds, with some left unused?

Where?   What about the waiting lists, although it's no good having beds without staff.

You can't just give people a clap and a cheer, whether it's nurses, GP's or anyone else and expect them to be happy - particularly when you waste 50 billion on a useless test and trace system and value  bean counters more than front-line medics.

I think we're probably drifting off topic, though ...

I think things may be very different in the US/Canada than in the UK.

(and possibly less qualified, not fully degreed nurses?)

 

Nurses are extremely well paid here, even before the pandemic. 

 

My niece is 25yrs old and has gotten recruited out of 3 hospitals with fantastic packages each time.

I had a home nurse last year come 2x/week and her phone never stopped ringing with them wanting her to come in for OT

At 1k cad for the shift

 

[Freeduhdumb]

32 minutes ago, Marc26 said:

I think things may be very different in the US/Canada than in the UK.

(and possibly less qualified, not fully degreed nurses?)

Nurses are extremely well paid here, even before the pandemic. 

My niece is 25yrs old and has gotten recruited out of 3 hospitals with fantastic packages each time.

I had a home nurse last year come 2x/week and her phone never stopped ringing with them wanting her to come in for OT

At 1k cad for the shift

In America the "degree" system is either a two year Associate Degree or a Four year Bachelor of Science Degree. Most nurses begin clinical work with the two year degree and many will not advance to the B.S. degree. If a nurse is aspiring to advance, to say advanced clinical work, or teaching or administrative functions, they will usually be required to achieve the B.S. Nurses, like the U.K. or Canada are in high demand and can command very good salaries. A.S. degree nurses right out of school will start from around $50,000 - $60,000 per year working a normal shift schedule with no OT. Even a small amount of OT can easily gain them another $10,000 per year. A B.S. degree nurse can add another $10,000 - $20,000 per year. 

[Marc26]

27 minutes ago, Freeduhdumb said:

In America the "degree" system is either a two year Associate Degree or a Four year Bachelor of Science Degree. Most nurses begin clinical work with the two year degree and many will not advance to the B.S. degree. If a nurse is aspiring to advance, to say advanced clinical work, or teaching or administrative functions, they will usually be required to achieve the B.S. Nurses, like the U.K. or Canada are in high demand and can command very good salaries. A.S. degree nurses right out of school will start from around $50,000 - $60,000 per year working a normal shift schedule with no OT. Even a small amount of OT can easily gain them another $10,000 per year. A B.S. degree nurse can add another $10,000 - $20,000 per year. 

Yes and that is why I mentioned the less qualified

 

The US has great nursing programs at many Universities, so many of the nurses in US hospitals are actually with degrees

 

Other nurses, without degrees are usually called LPN's

 

Many of the Filiipina nurses that come to Canada/US are LPN's

And I assume the Nurses from EE Stonker mentioned are as well

They can still make good money with OT but not like the RN's with degrees

 

Degree'd nurses a few years out are making even more than 50-60k nowadays

My niece had her students loans paid for as a signing bonus in one of her moves

 

[Marc26]

34 minutes ago, Freeduhdumb said:

In America the "degree" system is either a two year Associate Degree or a Four year Bachelor of Science Degree. Most nurses begin clinical work with the two year degree and many will not advance to the B.S. degree. If a nurse is aspiring to advance, to say advanced clinical work, or teaching or administrative functions, they will usually be required to achieve the B.S. Nurses, like the U.K. or Canada are in high demand and can command very good salaries. A.S. degree nurses right out of school will start from around $50,000 - $60,000 per year working a normal shift schedule with no OT. Even a small amount of OT can easily gain them another $10,000 per year. A B.S. degree nurse can add another $10,000 - $20,000 per year. 

Nursing is very similar to what my stepson is currently majoring in, Physical Therapy

Where before it was mostly a certificate type occupation has now turned into a full blown degree programs, some bordering on medical degrees

 

My stepson takes classes similar to if he were pre-med