News Forum - UKRAINE UPDATES

[vlad]

10 minutes ago, KRLMRX said:

so what about the nuclear power plant? why are they not being fired upon?

Your digging a hole for yourself KRLMRX except you have been defeated and face the truth instead of trying to deflect the issue of this Topic. I will ask one more question then im finished with this thread. If the Russian army is so powerful KRLMRX why did they not meet any of their criteria such as taking Mariupol, Odesa, Kiev, they did not meet one of the objectives all they did was force millions of civilians to flee because your leader targeted their homes. Answer this or walk away.

[butterfly]

2 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Why would Czar Putin even be talking to the Ukrainians if he held a strong hand.

The fact is he is losing in every dynamic. Militarily and financially. Your boy is beat. 

I think the plan was to seize as much as he could as bargaining chips,

didn't take the full prize, but might be enough for bargaining

let's wait for the details of the deal, to see who really won that war

Edited March 29, 2022 by butterfly

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, butterfly said:

let's wait for the details of the deal, to see who really won that war

If Putin makes a deal, he has already lost. No doubt whatever deal he does make isn't worth the paper it's written on. Still he made a huge investment in conquering Ukraine. If he basically ends up with what he started with, in what world is that a win?  

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I don't see them coming to an agreement anytime soon if ever. Ukraine says sovereignty is off the table, a key demand of Russia. At the same time Russia is demanding no foreign based troops. Of course Ukraine knows Russia will attack again (it's a given), and the only way they stand a chance of that not happening is with the basing of foreign troops. The whole thing hinges on sovereignty and security. Two things Ukraine demands, and two things Russia won't grant. 

Even so, the real problem is Putin is running out of time. If the economic sanctions don't get him first (they won't be going away anytime soon), the demographics have sped up and will get Russia sooner rather than later.

[Fanta]

1 hour ago, EdwardV said:

If Putin makes a deal, he has already lost

Not at all. If Ukraine agrees to become neutral Putin can claim mission accomplished. The proposed agreement includes no NATO membership, no foreign forces based in Ukraine, no Ukrainian military expansion, a 15 year deal on Crimea and ceding the 2 disputed regions to the Russians. If that deal goes through Zelenskyy, after claiming to be beating the Russians, will have to worry about keeping his job so political time could take care of Putin’s aim to get rid of the current Ukrainian government. Zelenskyy desire for “security guarantor countries” has as much chance as a no-fly zone = none. 

[EdwardV]

5 minutes ago, Fanta said:

The proposed agreement includes no NATO membership, no foreign forces based in Ukraine, no Ukrainian military expansion, a 15 year deal on Crimea and ceding the 2 disputed regions to the Russians.

There is no way that gets agreed to by Ukraine. The no NATO membership is a given, he wasn't getting that anyway. However I read the Russia's were willing to give in on EU membership. If so, there won't be much difference in a few years. The EU voted last Monday to approve something called the "Strategic Compass", a 5K combat force to react to member states in conflict situations. Basically it's the start of an EU army. Ukraine isn't going to agree to anything where they can't guarantee their security. No military expansion and no foreign based troops is a picture they have seen before (like last month). How will Russia guarantee Ukraine's security? A piece of paper promising to not attack? They have seen that picture before too. A 15 year deal of Crimea? When the 15 years is up, it's suppose to go back to Ukraine? How does that work and who makes sure it happens. The Russians? It's hard to imagine this flying considering Ukraine has already said sovereignty is off the table. What does Zelenskyy sell to the people? Yes we had thousands of deaths, hundreds of thousands displaced and hundreds of billions of destruction, in return we give everything up? What part is where he says "we beat up Russia"? 

[Alavan]

39 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Not at all. If Ukraine agrees to become neutral Putin can claim mission accomplished. The proposed agreement includes no NATO membership, no foreign forces based in Ukraine, no Ukrainian military expansion, a 15 year deal on Crimea and ceding the 2 disputed regions to the Russians. If that deal goes through Zelenskyy, after claiming to be beating the Russians, will have to worry about keeping his job so political time could take care of Putin’s aim to get rid of the current Ukrainian government. Zelenskyy desire for “security guarantor countries” has as much chance as a no-fly zone = none. 

So you have thousands of deads on both side for a situation as it was 2 months ago.

There was no chance of Ukraine becoming a NATO member,

Russia had already the Crimea,

2 disputed regions were already outside the control of Ukraine

 

[Fanta]

8 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

How will Russia guarantee Ukraine's security?

Well, that’s the problem isn’t it. Zelenskyy wants the EU member countries to guarantee Ukraine’s future security/independence but I think there is no chance of that. One issue is that the current Ukrainian government may be acceptable to  many but who knows about future Ukrainian governments? Plus an EU country committing troops in this or future Ukraine conflicts could mean that NATO is legally obligated to step in and protect that EU country deemed to be under attack. Zelenskyy demands guarantees, no fly zones etc that he knows cannot be granted because then he can reply to the refusal with “How about some weapons/money etc?”. Weaning Ukraine off the Western teat will take some time. 

[Fanta]

8 minutes ago, Alavan said:

So you have thousands of deads on both side for a situation as it was 2 months ago.

Not really. Russia want Ukraine to agree to not host foreign troops and no military build up (Putin’s goal of demilitarizing Ukraine), subsequent internal political pressure on Zelenskyy for giving anything to Russia (Putin’s goal of a regime change in Ukraine), Ukrainian agreement to leave Crimea off the negotiating table for 15 years and agreed Russian control of the 2 disputed regions in Ukraine (Putin’s unstated goal of Russian expansion). Putin could get what he claimed he wanted from the beginning as well as leaving a weakened Ukraine on new borders with Russian forces stationed in the 2 regions to “keep the peace”. 

[EdwardV]

20 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Zelenskyy wants the EU member countries to guarantee Ukraine’s future security/independence but I think there is no chance of that.

The EU is changing, that might not be so far fetched as it was just a month ago. That is if they still want Ukraine to join. It's a catch 22 for them. Let them join to protect ourselves, or don't let them join to protect ourselves. 

22 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Plus an EU country committing troops in this or future Ukraine conflicts could mean that NATO is legally obligated to step in and protect that EU country deemed to be under attack.

Maybe but I don't think that is the case. It requires the country to be attack, not it's forces in a third party country. However I do agree it's iffy at best and that's the scary part. 

24 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Weaning Ukraine off the Western teat will take some time. 

You can say that twice. 

Regardless without a solid security agreement, I don't see Ukraine agreeing to a deal. At that point there is nothing in it for them outside of locking in a future invasion. Why do a deal that guarantees you end up where you started? 

[Fanta]

15 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Why do a deal that guarantees you end up where you started? 

To remove the “enemy at the gates” and stave off defeat.  The Russians were at Kyiv’s doorstep. That is undeniable. If Kyiv falls then the Ukrainian government falls and it is all over bar the shouting and political hand wringing. The Russians have agreed to pull back from Kyiv. The West portrays this as a regrouping of forces and an unspoken admission of Russian failure to achieve a goal. Putin will portray this as a show of largesse and giving the Ukrainian government time to think of what could have happened. Zelenskyy will want more from the West than he is currently getting but will he get it? 

[EdwardV]

1 hour ago, Fanta said:

To remove the “enemy at the gates” and stave off defeat.  The Russians were at Kyiv’s doorstep. That is undeniable. If Kyiv falls then the Ukrainian government falls and it is all over bar the shouting and political hand wringing. The Russians have agreed to pull back from Kyiv.

A couple of problems with that story. First Russian forces have been stuck at the gates of Kyiv for two weeks now making little process. Are you honestly expecting me to believe two weeks ago Russia decided on this plan to pull back? That’s a tough sell. On top of that, why would Russia stop period? Why not finish off Ukraine? There is no logic to it unless you like having your army mauled. Last the West has been prepared for Ukraine to fall since 2014. The plan was always to fund and supply a massive insurgency and bleed out the Russian army. The thing that kept that from happening isn’t Russia’s generosity, it was Ukraine’s courage and determination. 

[oldschooler]

8 hours ago, KRLMRX said:

people are fleeing war zones. mainly Kyiv, Kharkov, Mariupol and front-line territories. There are no mass refugees from the Dnieper, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, Odessa. This means that the statement that Russia's goal is terror against all Ukrainians is not entirely true.

You added “ all” as deflection tactic.
Doesn’t matter where the Refugees are coming from just the massive numbers, deliberately created by Putin. 

Clearly it’s Ukranian - speakers that can be conveniently targeted. Obviously Putin won’t want to terrorize the loyal Russian speaking areas.

[oldschooler]

1 hour ago, EdwardV said:

A couple of problems with that story. First Russian forces have been stuck at the gates of Kyiv for two weeks now making little process. Are you honestly expecting me to believe two weeks ago Russia decided on this plan to pull back? That’s a tough sell. On top of that, why would Russia stop period? Why not finish off Ukraine? There is no logic to it unless you like having your army mauled. Last the West has been prepared for Ukraine to fall since 2014. The plan was always to fund and supply a massive insurgency and bleed out the Russian army. The thing that kept that from happening isn’t Russia’s generosity, it was Ukraine’s courage and determination. 

Russians reached Irpin, a remote Kyiv suburb 25 km from city Centre ! Hardly the “gates” of Kyiv

[Fanta]

7 hours ago, EdwardV said:

On top of that, why would Russia stop period? Why not finish off Ukraine? 

Mainly because occupation was never a stated Russian goal. < off topic reference removed > Considering that, total victory leading to occupation is a no win situation for Russia and opens them to longer lasting ongoing sanctions and  a perpetual national and international thorn in their side. This way Putin gets what he wants, the news slips off the front page and the world can forget what happened, as it always does. Keep n mind that the war is only one month old so being parked outside the Ukrainian capital for 2 weeks is hardly a sign of weakness. This can be seen as a sign of restraint, a warning or a stalemate depending on how you look at it. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Faz
off topic

[oldschooler]

9 hours ago, KRLMRX said:

your examples are voluntary decisions of these states. Kosovo is not. As far as I know, Serbia has not yet recognized Kosovo.

It’s called “ self - determination”.

Nobody cares about Serbian recognition of anything.

[Thaidup]

Maybe some good news,

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine appeared to deliver the first tentative signs of progress on Tuesday,

The Russian team also suggested that direct talks between President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could take place once both sides had agreed to a draft peace deal — sooner than they had said before.

https://www.wuwm.com/world/2022-03-29/russia-vows-to-reduce-ukraine-attacks-after-talks-but-the-u-s-is-skeptical

Edited March 30, 2022 by Thaidup

[Politenessman]

6 hours ago, Fanta said:

Mainly because occupation was never a stated Russian goal.  Considering that, total victory leading to occupation is a no win situation for Russia and opens them to longer lasting ongoing sanctions and  a perpetual national and international thorn in their side. This way Putin gets what he wants, the news slips off the front page and the world can forget what happened, as it always does. Keep n mind that the war is only one month old so being parked outside the Ukrainian capital for 2 weeks is hardly a sign of weakness. This can be seen as a sign of restraint, a warning or a stalemate depending on how you look at it. 

Restraint?  they are flattening Mariupol. a warning? Russia has committed 75% of its combat ready forces and has ground to a halt and been pushed back in some areas.

Russian doctrine relies on massive firepower and speed of movement, they are low on ammunition, don't have enough trucks to conduct adequate resupply (because they traditionally rely on rail) and have been stopped for two weeks.

Putin is now trying to redefine victory in real time.

This isn't a strategic decision - the Russian military has been exposed as a facade.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Faz
edited quote

[oldschooler]

6 hours ago, Fanta said:

Mainly because occupation was never a stated Russian goal. Considering that, total victory leading to occupation is a no win situation for Russia and opens them to longer lasting ongoing sanctions and  a perpetual national and international thorn in their side. This way Putin gets what he wants, the news slips off the front page and the world can forget what happened, as it always does. Keep n mind that the war is only one month old so being parked outside the Ukrainian capital for 2 weeks is hardly a sign of weakness. This can be seen as a sign of restraint, a warning or a stalemate depending on how you look at it. 

Russia’s Ukraine Goals: Control ( Regime Change); Neutrality ( no NATO); Wreck ; Disarm. Occupy / Denazify: No.

Edited March 30, 2022 by Faz
edited quote

[KaptainRob]

7 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Russia’s Ukraine Goals: Control ( Regime Change); Neutrality ( no NATO); Wreck ; Disarm. Occupy / Denazify: No.

That one may bounce!   

I doubt it will go ahead but if it does it would be very little gain for Putin at massive cost to the country which will suffer for many years unless by some miracle, a complete purge of the Kremlin occurs.

[Fanta]

7 minutes ago, Politenessman said:

Restraint?  they are flattening Mariupol. a warning? Russia has committed 75% of its combat ready forces and has ground to a halt and been pushed back in some areas.

I was commenting in regards to Kyiv.

And 75%? 

“To be sure, most military experts say that Russia will eventually subdue Ukraine’s army. Russia’s military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraine’s. ”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html

[oldschooler]

1 minute ago, KaptainRob said:

That one may bounce!   

I doubt it will go ahead but if it does it would be very little gain for Putin at massive cost to the country which will suffer for many years unless by some miracle, a complete purge of the Kremlin occurs.

Yes. Russia can’t now get “Control”.

“Wreck” is Done ( but at huge cost).

Neutrality: doable.

Disarm : can’t be done now.

[Rookiescot]

6 hours ago, Fanta said:

Mainly because occupation was never a stated Russian goal. Considering that, total victory leading to occupation is a no win situation for Russia and opens them to longer lasting ongoing sanctions and  a perpetual national and international thorn in their side. This way Putin gets what he wants, the news slips off the front page and the world can forget what happened, as it always does. Keep n mind that the war is only one month old so being parked outside the Ukrainian capital for 2 weeks is hardly a sign of weakness. This can be seen as a sign of restraint, a warning or a stalemate depending on how you look at it. 

Czar Putins army stalled in their advance and couldnt secure its supply lines. Any restraint was forced on them and indeed now they appear to be getting forced back.  

Edited March 30, 2022 by Faz
edited quote and reply.

[oldschooler]

4 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I was commenting in regards to Kyiv.

And 75%? 

“To be sure, most military experts say that Russia will eventually subdue Ukraine’s army. Russia’s military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraine’s. ”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/us/politics/russia-ukraine-military.html

And all of fairly useless quality & morale. Numbers in this situation won’t work. Simple Logistics & Modern weapons will render ineffective any WW2 human wave tactics. 

[EdwardV]

4 hours ago, Fanta said:

Putin could get what he claimed he wanted from the beginning as well as leaving a weakened Ukraine on new borders with Russian forces stationed in the 2 regions to “keep the peace”. 

I’m one of those who don’t believe Ukraine was the final objective. That it was nothing but a rung on a ladder starting in Georgia and ending in Poland. That said let’s pretend you are right and Ukraine was the final objective. Problem is Putin already had all of those things prior to attacking. He already occupied Crimea and de facto did the same with the Donbas region. Ukraine was locked out of NATO and far less militarized than it will be in any peace deal. What does Putin get for ending up in the same spot at the cost of a wrecked army and destroyed economy? 

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, oldschooler said:

Russians reached Irpin, a remote Kyiv suburb 25 km from city Centre ! Hardly the “gates” of Kyiv

They also kicked out the Russians from Irpin