News Forum - Health Ministry warns people to get vaccinated or face possible restrictions

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, mickkotlarski said:

Fauci is talking about 6 month boosters for Pfizer and Moderna. Every 2 months for J&J.

Covid vaccines are still being developed and refined - they did not exist when the Spanish Flu killed so many people - it was because of it that vaccine development was pushed ahead.  They will improve vaccines against covid and they will get better - and I will gladly get a booster after 6 months if available.  I agree with you - anyone still thinking that vaccines are a 'cure' needs to listen up - they aint and they never will be (probably).  Covid virus will continue to develop itself and mutate - it is here forever - and the way I see it we are all going to get it - I prefer to be vaccinated (and booster) when it hits me.   

[Bob20]

2 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

What I have seen is that the viral 'load' between vaccinated and unvaccinated is about the same. BUT those who are vaccinated catch it less frequently than those who are not, and those who are vaccinated clear the virus out of their system quicker than those unvaccinated. That is why vaccinated people spread the virus far less than unvaccinated - they get it less and they have it for less time - plus they get less sick than the unvaccinated.  It is not about the individual - it is about the herd - we are all better off if people are vaccinated. But mandatory is not acceptable - but exclusions are acceptable.  It is OK to exclude someone with a serious contagious disease - the rights of the herd over-rule the rights of the individual. 

Morning Bob, I wish it were so, but it's not what the latest research for the current delta variant says. 

The vaccinated "catch" the virus the same, but they are protected to a high degree from illness and death. They spread the virus to the same degree as well. The differences are in fact small and not statistically significant.

This also shows in all the countries with a high level of vaccination that have opened up. Case load grows exponentially and that's not just from the minority unvaccinated.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

[Bob20]

9 hours ago, SkipsPa said:

As a newbie to this site I'm not sure whether a new topic might be discussed. I'm a 77-yr old male in England and have an inguinal hernia. This could be operated on but I'm reluctant to add more work on to the hospitals whilst they have the heavy burden that Covid has added.

I think that's something to discuss with your GP or specialist. If you have been vaccinated you may not have to worry much about the hospital environment, and if it's been advised that you have the surgery and it can be scheduled, I think you should go for it.

[mickkotlarski]

30 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Morning Bob, I wish it were so, but it's not what the latest research for the current delta variant says. 

The vaccinated "catch" the virus the same, but they are protected to a high degree from illness and death. They spread the virus to the same degree as well. The differences are in fact small and not statistically significant.

This also shows in all the countries with a high level of vaccination that have opened up. Case load grows exponentially and that's not just from the minority unvaccinated.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

Good to see people quoting the Lancet and not the next door neighbors ideology.

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

Good to see people quoting the Lancet and not the next door neighbors ideology.

My next door neighbour was busy all night writing it

[AussieBob]

50 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Morning Bob, I wish it were so, but it's not what the latest research for the current delta variant says. 

The vaccinated "catch" the virus the same, but they are protected to a high degree from illness and death. They spread the virus to the same degree as well. The differences are in fact small and not statistically significant.

This also shows in all the countries with a high level of vaccination that have opened up. Case load grows exponentially and that's not just from the minority unvaccinated.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

I hear what you are saying, but you are wrong in that interpretation Bob.  This is from the article you quoted:  "Vaccination was found to be effective in reducing household transmission of the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) by 40–50%, and infected, vaccinated individuals had lower viral load in the upper respiratory tract (URT) than infections in unvaccinated individuals, which is indicative of reduced infectiousness.

The study reported in Lancet was all in-home contacts and the spread between in-home contacts. It was about those living together in the same house and the rate of infections between them through continued exposure.  This shows clearly that in close contact there is not a lot of difference in viral load when someone is infected, vaccinated or not.  But it also showed that the vaccinated have that load less longer, and the vaccinated are less likely to get infected in-close living with an infected person. 

 

[Bob20]

26 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

I hear what you are saying, but you are wrong in that interpretation Bob.  This is from the article you quoted:  "Vaccination was found to be effective in reducing household transmission of the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) by 40–50%, and infected, vaccinated individuals had lower viral load in the upper respiratory tract (URT) than infections in unvaccinated individuals, which is indicative of reduced infectiousness.

The study reported in Lancet was all in-home contacts and the spread between in-home contacts. It was about those living together in the same house and the rate of infections between them through continued exposure.  This shows clearly that in close contact there is not a lot of difference in viral load when someone is infected, vaccinated or not.  But it also showed that the vaccinated have that load less longer, and the vaccinated are less likely to get infected in-close living with an infected person. 

Yes, but the conclusion is that there is no significant difference.

It can get confusing as some define infection as morbidity and mortality. Others as catching the virus regardless of the effects.

Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host–virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory.

[mickkotlarski]

44 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

I hear what you are saying, but you are wrong in that interpretation Bob.  This is from the article you quoted:  "Vaccination was found to be effective in reducing household transmission of the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) by 40–50%, and infected, vaccinated individuals had lower viral load in the upper respiratory tract (URT) than infections in unvaccinated individuals, which is indicative of reduced infectiousness.

The study reported in Lancet was all in-home contacts and the spread between in-home contacts. It was about those living together in the same house and the rate of infections between them through continued exposure.  This shows clearly that in close contact there is not a lot of difference in viral load when someone is infected, vaccinated or not.  But it also showed that the vaccinated have that load less longer, and the vaccinated are less likely to get infected in-close living with an infected person. 

 

Hi Bob...Just going a little off topic but of major interest wrt Covid19.

Got a message from my boss saying I'm clear to return to work duties in Japan early next year. Checking the number of those daily infected and fatalities the tallies are surprisingly low and have been for a month. Note that Japan had 23,000 per day not long ago.

Physicians and researchers alike are baffled as the nsp14 protein in the Delta variant has gone. In short the delta strain in Japan has mutated to the point its basically killing itself. Because it can no longer reproduce.

There is a theory that like SARS in 2003 that suddenly had an unexplained disappearance. Scientists call it error catastrophy whereby the virus mutates to the point its own self extinction for that strain is caused.

Dr.Ituro Inoue at the Institute of genetics in Japan still cannot fully explain this and the research on SARS in 2003 was inconclusive due to the viruses suddenly vanishing. Simply put not enough data gathered.

The scientists remain skeptical about a cure and reiterate that precautions and vaccinations remain in place especially during the colder months. I think something we can all agree on.

But interesting all the same.

 

[Bob20]

1 hour ago, mickkotlarski said:

Hi Bob...Just going a little off topic but of major interest wrt Covid19.

Got a message from my boss saying I'm clear to return to work duties in Japan early next year. Checking the number of those daily infected and fatalities the tallies are surprisingly low and have been for a month. Note that Japan had 23,000 per day not long ago.

Physicians and researchers alike are baffled as the nsp14 protein in the Delta variant has gone. In short the delta strain in Japan has mutated to the point its basically killing itself. Because it can no longer reproduce.

There is a theory that like SARS in 2003 that suddenly had an unexplained disappearance. Scientists call it error catastrophy whereby the virus mutates to the point its own self extinction for that strain is caused.

Dr.Ituro Inoue at the Institute of genetics in Japan still cannot fully explain this and the research on SARS in 2003 was inconclusive due to the viruses suddenly vanishing. Simply put not enough data gathered.

The scientists remain skeptical about a cure and reiterate that precautions and vaccinations remain in place especially during the colder months. I think something we can all agree on.

But interesting all the same.

Interesting to see what follows from research later, but for now there are plenty of "conventional" reasons for what they see, as besides a high vaccination rate they didn't let go of the facemasks like other countries did.

www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/world/asia/japan-covid-drop.amp.html

BTW, there has been heated debate about (in-)efficiency of mask wearing. Research now shows that 53% of infections is prevented by wearing a mask, so there is no debate anymore.

www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068302

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

8 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

BTW, there has been heated debate about (in-)efficiency of mask wearing. Research now shows that 53% of infections is prevented by wearing a mask, so there is no debate anymore.

www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068302

By excluding 64 studies out of 72 studies and only using 8 you can get whatever results you want to get.

[mickkotlarski]

8 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Interesting to see what follows from research later, but for now there are plenty of "conventional" reasons for what they see, as besides a high vaccination rate they didn't let go of the facemasks like other countries did.

www.nytimes.com/2021/10/28/world/asia/japan-covid-drop.amp.html

BTW, there has been heated debate about (in-)efficiency of mask wearing. Research now shows that 53% of infections is prevented by wearing a mask, so there is no debate anymore.

www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068302

Agreed. Still nothing conclusive and further research awaits but it does make one think.

Face masks, restrictions and rules being respected definitely helps but still to go from 23,000 per day to less than 150 is not just face masks Bob. Why the nsp14 protein disappeared is baffling.

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

By excluding 64 studies out of 72 studies and only using 8 you can get whatever results you want to get.

That's still 8 more than you usually quote

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

Just now, Bob20 said:

That's still 8 more than you usually quote

If you include 8 studies of mere 100 people each, you'll get whatever you want.

https://fee.org/articles/new-danish-study-finds-masks-don-t-protect-wearers-from-covid-infection/

 

"Half the participants were given surgical masks and instructed to wear them outside the home; the other half were instructed to not wear a mask outside the home.

Roughly 4,860 participants finished the experiment, the Times reports. The results were not encouraging.

“The researchers had hoped that masks would cut the infection rate by half among wearers. Instead, 42 people in the mask group, or 1.8 percent, got infected, compared with 53 in the unmasked group, or 2.1 percent. The difference was not statistically significant,” the Times reports."

 

 

[Bob20]

Just now, mickkotlarski said:

Agreed. Still nothing conclusive and further research awaits but it does make one think.

Face masks, restrictions and rules being respected definitely helps but still to go from 23,000 per day to less than 150 is not just face masks Bob. Why the nsp14 protein disappeared is baffling.

It's exactly what places like Austria and Holland and Germany and soon the UK are trying to do. If they hadn't let go of all restrictions they would have been much better off... Nothing is conclusive and every change they find is an option but not necessarily the answer.

[Thomazz59]

If you're talking about wering an "EFFECTIVE" mask.. Purchase a 3M half mask with HEPA filters. I used to perform asbestos abatement and this ws an intergal part of our PP equipment

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, Thomazz59 said:

If you're talking about wering an "EFFECTIVE" mask.. Purchase a 3M half mask with HEPA filters. I used to perform asbestos abatement and this ws an intergal part of our PP equipment

Whilst you are correct, that is out of reach of most people. And in temperatures of 35°+ very uncomfortable.

it's good to know that many cheap masks (incl.cloth) don't filter well but catch aerosole droplets on the outside and keep your own aerosole droplets on the inside. And they are main cause of transmission.

[Shark]

5 hours ago, Bob20 said:

Morning Mr.Shark. As there likely will be other variants and vaccines don't necessarily work against future variants, just like with the normal flu, boosters with updated vaccines may well be the optimal choice. Chances that we will find a sterilising vaccine are small.

If you like to know more, this is an informative piece:

https://www.science.org/content/article/how-long-do-vaccines-last-surprising-answers-may-help-protect-people-longer

that's what I was saying. But the person actually didn't agree lost whom it was in the haystack.

[AussieBob]

20 hours ago, Bob20 said:

Yes, but the conclusion is that there is no significant difference.

It can get confusing as some define infection as morbidity and mortality. Others as catching the virus regardless of the effects.

Vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and accelerates viral clearance. Nonetheless, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts. Host–virus interactions early in infection may shape the entire viral trajectory.

Yes - it is very similar in a closed environment frequently sharing the same air all day/night - as in that the study was conducted about families in their houses. But the study showed that vaccinated people who became infected were infectious to others for far less period of time - that is the critical issue.  And that study does not translate into the broader community who are not sharing a house with other people for several weeks.   I think what the study proves is that at their peak viral loads there is little difference in the infectious rate for those with Covid between vaccinated and unvaccinated people, and that the vaccinated have a peak load for far less period of time that the unvaccinated (hence the 40%-50% lower rate of infections from vaccinated versus unvaccinated people with Covid).  It does not mention exactly how long each person had their 'peak viral load' - but I would say the study indicates that unvaccinated people have a peak viral load (highest time if infectious) for 40-50% longer than vaccinated people.    

[AussieBob]

20 hours ago, mickkotlarski said:

Hi Bob...Just going a little off topic but of major interest wrt Covid19.

Got a message from my boss saying I'm clear to return to work duties in Japan early next year. Checking the number of those daily infected and fatalities the tallies are surprisingly low and have been for a month. Note that Japan had 23,000 per day not long ago.

Physicians and researchers alike are baffled as the nsp14 protein in the Delta variant has gone. In short the delta strain in Japan has mutated to the point its basically killing itself. Because it can no longer reproduce.

There is a theory that like SARS in 2003 that suddenly had an unexplained disappearance. Scientists call it error catastrophy whereby the virus mutates to the point its own self extinction for that strain is caused.

Dr.Ituro Inoue at the Institute of genetics in Japan still cannot fully explain this and the research on SARS in 2003 was inconclusive due to the viruses suddenly vanishing. Simply put not enough data gathered.

The scientists remain skeptical about a cure and reiterate that precautions and vaccinations remain in place especially during the colder months. I think something we can all agree on.

But interesting all the same.

Very interesting Mick - thanks for that information.

My own research at the beginning of the pandemic showed me that influenza viruses all eventually do the same - they mainly mutate to less and less infectious versions - and very few of the new mutations are infectious to humans - but every few years or so a new one breaks out that hits hard and and then it also 'dies away'. They never completely disappear though - they become dormant (waiting?).  No one really knows why, but the main popular theory was that they somehow have adopted this strategy, because if they did not do that and they became more and more infectious, then they would kill off all their potential hosts (and thus themselves).  Viruses have been around for billions of years - that 'strategy' theory makes sense - if that is true then how it works is completely sceptical.   I reckon the Covid virus will do the same - and I reckon unlike most flu viruses that die away after a short period, Covid will be like the Spanish Flu which took 3.5 years to become dormant. But maybe vaccines and medications will help bring that forward and by mid-late 2022 Covid will 'dissipate' - I hope so. 

[Bob20]

I think we agree on the main points and both would like it if the vaccines also prevent transmission. We have to be careful not to draw wrong conclusions from the data by wishful thinking or applying our own logic though. This was merely the latest study, but there are more studies that don't show reduced transmission rate in Delta. 

[Pinetree]

2 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Very interesting Mick - thanks for that information.

My own research at the beginning of the pandemic showed me that influenza viruses all eventually do the same - they mainly mutate to less and less infectious versions - and very few of the new mutations are infectious to humans - but every few years or so a new one breaks out that hits hard and and then it also 'dies away'. They never completely disappear though - they become dormant (waiting?).  No one really knows why, but the main popular theory was that they somehow have adopted this strategy, because if they did not do that and they became more and more infectious, then they would kill off all their potential hosts (and thus themselves).  Viruses have been around for billions of years - that 'strategy' theory makes sense - if that is true then how it works is completely sceptical.   I reckon the Covid virus will do the same - and I reckon unlike most flu viruses that die away after a short period, Covid will be like the Spanish Flu which took 3.5 years to become dormant. But maybe vaccines and medications will help bring that forward and by mid-late 2022 Covid will 'dissipate' - I hope so. 

Its not a flu virus.  Its more like Smallpox and that never did get 'less dangerous' by mutation. Too much wishful thinking going on with regard to Covid. 

[mickkotlarski]

6 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Very interesting Mick - thanks for that information.

My own research at the beginning of the pandemic showed me that influenza viruses all eventually do the same - they mainly mutate to less and less infectious versions - and very few of the new mutations are infectious to humans - but every few years or so a new one breaks out that hits hard and and then it also 'dies away'. They never completely disappear though - they become dormant (waiting?).  No one really knows why, but the main popular theory was that they somehow have adopted this strategy, because if they did not do that and they became more and more infectious, then they would kill off all their potential hosts (and thus themselves).  Viruses have been around for billions of years - that 'strategy' theory makes sense - if that is true then how it works is completely sceptical.   I reckon the Covid virus will do the same - and I reckon unlike most flu viruses that die away after a short period, Covid will be like the Spanish Flu which took 3.5 years to become dormant. But maybe vaccines and medications will help bring that forward and by mid-late 2022 Covid will 'dissipate' - I hope so. 

Morning Bob.

Good to see observant people. After SARS and MERS made an exit from the world stage most were happy that an imminent threat has gone. But geneticists and microbiologist in several nations approached federal governments and sponsors for more support in research. They were for the bulk denied due to lack of need.

But viruses are living organisms that (as you correctly said) have been around for billion of years. Pandemics can vanish but viruses stay with us.

I'm still pessimistic that Covid19 will disappear but the fact that a nation has had the good fortune to see the delta strain suddenly mutate to the point it could not produce its own nsp14 protein is very promising indeed.

It could very well be the key that researchers are looking for.    

The approximate 100 year cycle is ironic. The Black plague, Cholera, Spanish flu and in Japan's case Covid19 have seen millions infected and doomsday predictors chime in yet viruses would suddenly disappear and the endemics and pandemics either lessened or disappeared.

The only real man made strategy that will succeed is developing a medication that can kill the virus without nasty side effects. Same ideology with a vaccine. Its just a theory suggested by Dr.Ituro Inoue but if combinations of viruses could be introduced to compete against eachother then we may see some light at the end of the tunnel.

After all why is it that other nations with similar conditions are still badly affected?

Thanks for the message. So good to see somebody not waving fists in the air but actually looking at facts outside the box.

Enjoy the golf.

 

 

[AussieBob]

19 hours ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

If you include 8 studies of mere 100 people each, you'll get whatever you want.

https://fee.org/articles/new-danish-study-finds-masks-don-t-protect-wearers-from-covid-infection/

"Half the participants were given surgical masks and instructed to wear them outside the home; the other half were instructed to not wear a mask outside the home.

Roughly 4,860 participants finished the experiment, the Times reports. The results were not encouraging.

“The researchers had hoped that masks would cut the infection rate by half among wearers. Instead, 42 people in the mask group, or 1.8 percent, got infected, compared with 53 in the unmasked group, or 2.1 percent. The difference was not statistically significant,” the Times reports."

Fake News Jack - that is a study that showed "masks-don-t-protect-wearers-from-covid-infection".  The reason masks are recommended by medical specialists and mandated by some Govts, is that they slow the rate of infection to others. Wearing a mask does not stop you from catching covid from someone coughing or breathing near you who is infected (unless a high end PPE mask), but what they do is slow the spread of infections from people who have covid but are not aware of that fact.  Same for vaccinated people - vaccinated people who are infected spread it far less than those who are unvaccinated, plus it gives them better protection and greatly reduces their levels of sickness and deaths.

Because the flu does not kill that many people each year (relatively) there has been very little research and studies about the effectiveness of wearing masks.  A university in USA did a study whereby they placed young students together - some with - some without masks - some infected with the flu - some uninfected.  The 'study' did not meet scientific rules etc. but 'anecdotally' it showed a reduction of 72% of students becoming infected when sharing a room for 8 hours with an infected person who was wearing a mask - compared to sharing with an infected person without a mask.  Wearing a mask made very little difference in infection rates (less than 20%) when sharing with an unmasked infected person. 

Getting vaccinated does NOT stop you getting Covid, and that wearing a mask does NOT stop you getting Covid.  They both reduce the spread of the infection. 

[AussieBob]

35 minutes ago, Pinetree said:

Its not a flu virus.  Its more like Smallpox and that never did get 'less dangerous' by mutation. Too much wishful thinking going on with regard to Covid. 

It is a virus.  Wishful thinking - Conspiracy thinking - Up to you.

[Bennett]

On 11/16/2021 at 9:16 AM, Transam said:

I know a farang teacher that has not been vaxed or wears a mask at work in school or anywhere else, nobody says anything....

Good for him. The guy's probably got a brain.