News Forum - Prediction for international travellers to Thailand lowered again

[AussieBob]

6 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Guess again...

Hope you are very wrong - wife getting anxious to return a visit Mum. I was going to say 'itchy' but some posters here will take that and run with it.

[AussieBob]

3 minutes ago, HappyExpat said:

Seriously, I think that's way over-optimistic.

Et Tu HappyExpat!  That makes two that I hope are very wrong.  Gonna go have a cuppa - and say nothing about this to the missus.

[Bob20]

6 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Hope you are very wrong - wife getting anxious to return a visit Mum. I was going to say 'itchy' but some posters here will take that and run with it.

I will tell you why. On July 30 Thailand received 1.5 million pfizer for 750.000 people. Now it is 40 days later. They haven't even finished the 750.000 first jabs.

I no longer believe that they jabbed 35m in the last 4 months, including the very slow setup and startup.

We are not getting to 75% vaccination rate until middle of next year at the earliest. And those will be government numbers, likely not being 75% at all. 

[riclag]

 Never let a crisis go to waste! You forgot another revenue scheme!

Mandatory Covid Ins.

It will never go away the virus and the money making scheme’s. 

“All this, coupled with Thailand’s strict entry policies that require full vaccination, multiple prepaid tests, hotels booked and paid in advance and more, has driven a severe decline in tourism”.

 

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Lets see, shall we take a poll, each make a guess and at the end of the year when the totals are released crown the right poster with the tile of Greatest Guesstimator?

148,000 including the 28,000 they claim from July 1st. So an additional 120,000 between September 1st and December 31st. 

[AussieBob]

14 minutes ago, BlueSphinx said:

Yes I looked at UK covid-death figures for last 3 months.  And indeed, as you state, that's what's possible when you get to 80% full vaccination ratio.

Off topic a bit - but just to respond - lets see how those numbers go in the next 3-6 months.  Reductions in cases and deaths lag behind vaccinations, so it will take a while for those numbers to adjust. 80% was hit only a few days ago, so lets give that 'herd immunity' some time to work - fair enough?  

 

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

I can remember when Tim said he would walk backwards nude down walking street if even 1 million tourists arrive in Thailand. I think TAT should be scrapped and Tim given the job - clearly better qualified and better outcomes.  Seriously though, how the hell does TAT dont get disbanded. They changed the boss and a few senior managers, but they still come out with these outrageous predictions year after year. 

As someone told me yesterday, it’s their job to be optimistic. Well, I actually believe in these testing times, it’s their job to be realistic. And it’s always their job  to improve tourism numbers and/or revenues. As such they need to be front and centre of showing they understand why tourists are staying away. All we get is third party concern over Covid or blaming the global downturn in financial spending. I’m not the least worried about Covid. I’ve got two shots of quality vaccine and I’ve got money waiting to spend in my bank. What I don’t have is any confidence I can get to Thailand without having a heart attack due to the stress of documentation and fear of having to spend 10 or more days in a field hospital with the stench of fish sauce in the air and no aircon.
 

What I want to see and hear from TAT and the government is what I posted yesterday. A clear message they GET IT! A statement that shows they intend to return the process of getting to Thailand back to pre-pandemic status and a roadmap to getting there. Measures which help and improve the ability to come to the country. In other words, wake up and join the year 2021 instead of living in 1921

[AussieBob]

14 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I will tell you why. On July 30 Thailand received 1.5 million pfizer for 750.000 people. Now it is 40 days later. They haven't even finished the 750.000 first jabs.

I no longer believe that they jabbed 35m in the last 4 months, including the very slow setup and startup.

We are not getting to 75% vaccination rate until middle of next year at the earliest. And those will be government numbers, likely not being 75% at all. 

The numbers they will use are those the CCSA publish - real or not - I think you may be right though but CCSA will dictate the number.  The CCSA states 11 million are fully vaccinated (18% of 60 million) and another 15 million have had one dose (8th Sept). That makes 15 million more doses to give about 25 million full vaccinations. Plus to get to 80% which is about 50 million, they will need to have given another 25 million x 2 doses (50 million) for a total of 50 million doses to get to 80% fully vaccinated.  50 + 25 = 75 million.  CCSA states that they are averaging about 650K doses per day - which means another 115 days (assuming they maintain that rate).

If all of that above is correct that means they will have 80% fully vaccinated on 2nd January 2022.  Maybe there will be a month added for 'slippage', or maybe even take some weeks off for an increased daily rate of injections.  Either way I estimate January/February 2022 they will be at 80% fully vaccinated.  But that of course depends on them maintaining 600K+ per day injections. If they slipped down to 200K injections per day then it will take until October 2022. 

January/February 2022 best case - October/November 2022 worst case.

Most likely to actually happen? IMO = May/June 2022.   Looks like you are right.  Dont tell the wife.

[AussieBob]

14 minutes ago, Soidog said:

As someone told me yesterday, it’s their job to be optimistic. Well, I actually believe in these testing times, it’s their job to be realistic. And it’s always their job  to improve tourism numbers and/or revenues. As such they need to be front and centre of showing they understand why tourists are staying away. All we get is third party concern over Covid or blaming the global downturn in financial spending. I’m not the least worried about Covid. I’ve got two shots of quality vaccine and I’ve got money waiting to spend in my bank. What I don’t have is any confidence I can get to Thailand without having a heart attack due to the stress of documentation and fear of having to spend 10 or more days in a field hospital with the stench of fish sauce in the air and no aircon.
 

What I want to see and hear from TAT and the government is what I posted yesterday. A clear message they GET IT! A statement that shows they intend to return the process of getting to Thailand back to pre-pandemic status and a roadmap to getting there. Measures which help and improve the ability to come to the country. In other words, wake up and join the year 2021 instead of living in 1921

Well said mate - agree 100%. Will that happen? Maybe.

[Poolie]

16 minutes ago, Soidog said:

 In other words, wake up and join the year 2021 instead of living in 1921

They weren't founded until 1960.

[Bob20]

23 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

The numbers they will use are those the CCSA publish - real or not - I think you may be right though but CCSA will dictate the number.  The CCSA states 11 million are fully vaccinated (18% of 60 million) and another 15 million have had one dose (8th Sept). That makes 15 million more doses to give about 25 million full vaccinations. Plus to get to 80% which is about 50 million, they will need to have given another 25 million x 2 doses (50 million) for a total of 50 million doses to get to 80% fully vaccinated.  50 + 25 = 75 million.  CCSA states that they are averaging about 650K doses per day - which means another 115 days (assuming they maintain that rate).

If all of that above is correct that means they will have 80% fully vaccinated on 2nd January 2022.  Maybe there will be a month added for 'slippage', or maybe even take some weeks off for an increased daily rate of injections.  Either way I estimate January/February 2022 they will be at 80% fully vaccinated.  But that of course depends on them maintaining 600K+ per day injections. If they slipped down to 200K injections per day then it will take until October 2022. 

January/February 2022 best case - October/November 2022 worst case.

Most likely to actually happen? IMO = May/June 2022.   Looks like you are right.  Dont tell the wife.

Uhummm. What made me very suspicious is that they constantly stop and start because of shortages even now. Yet they can't jab 750.000 doses in 40 days when they're on the shelf...

And this should worry you too, because they give the international community very different numbers:

[longwood50]

[Soidog]

35 minutes ago, BlueSphinx said:

Yes I looked at UK covid-death figures for last 3 months.  And indeed, as you state, that's what's possible when you get to 80% full vaccination ratio.

The figures in the U.K. at first sight look alarming. 80% fully vaccinated and still 30,000+ cases per day and 100+ dead. Wow!  What is going wrong? 
 

But wait….  That’s 80% of adults which means only 60% of entire population. Still way off herd immunity of 75%. (Not that anyone really believes that herd immunity works with this virus anymore apart from places like Thailand). Then there’s the fact that many of these people vaccinated were vaccinated back in Jan and Feb (6 months ago), so protection is waning in the elderly cohort. 

The country is now fully open and life is returning to normal. No curfews. No bar or restaurant closures. No social distancing or mask wearing (apart from a few transport areas such as London Underground). Kids now back at school. Shops gyms and cinemas all fully open. So of course people who are unvaccinated continue to catch the virus and people who are vaccinated are catching the virus. The majority of infections are now in the 7-24 year age group (see below graph from the ONS).
 

Finally don’t forget that the U.K. is testing around 400,000 a day. That’s ten times more that Thailand in the same population. 
 

So the numbers aren’t in the least surprising given the country is fully open, nearly all people up to the age of 18 remain unvaccinated and efficacy is reducing affecting those who were first vaccinated most, who are also the oldest and most vulnerable.   

[Paco]

When they said the 3 million, I said yeah right. Why they even make predictions? Is giving false hope to businesses  and they keep on staying open and paying the rent... is all it comes to, what if every one close their business, Thailand is doomed. And they already are because of the stupid ideas  and rules they made. 

 

Same with Pattaya re-opening, it is a joke.. drive or walk in pattaya it is sad, quiet, dead  ghost town who wants to spend money to stay there??? Stupid ideas of a moron that need to come up with some idea so he does not get fired and loses his over paid salary... Thailand should 1000000% get the infection in control asap and the rest will come back , but now for what you can not even drink a beer in a restaurant... or drink with some people in your room... they really think people come???? Thailand forget most tourist come for beer and fun... and there is none of it

 

How many ideas they already made??? 

Only thing they have to do was making a good and fast reliable plan to get everyone vaccinated, so things can slowly go back to normal, they try to force it to go fast.. IT DOES NOT WORK when will they understand? ....NEVER

Edited September 10, 2021 by Paco

[Soidog]

12 minutes ago, Poolie said:

They weren't founded until 1960.

All the more pathetic they are living like it’s 1921. But thanks for the helpful feedback 

[Paco]

2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

I can remember when Tim said he would walk backwards nude down walking street if even 1 million tourists arrive in Thailand. I think TAT should be scrapped and Tim given the job - clearly better qualified and better outcomes.  Seriously though, how the hell does TAT dont get disbanded. They changed the boss and a few senior managers, but they still come out with these outrageous predictions year after year. 

Well I want to see Tim doing that at least some fun .... I hope he is a man of his word  

Edited September 10, 2021 by Paco

[BlueSphinx]

9 minutes ago, Soidog said:

The figures in the U.K. at first sight look alarming. 80% fully vaccinated and still 30,000+ cases per day and 100+ dead. Wow!  What is going wrong? 
But wait….  That’s 80% of adults which means only 60% of entire population. Still way off herd immunity of 75%. (Not that anyone really believes that herd immunity works with this virus anymore apart from places like Thailand). Then there’s the fact that many of these people vaccinated were vaccinated back in Jan and Feb (6 months ago), so protection is waning in the elderly cohort. 

The country is now fully open and life is returning to normal. No curfews. No bar or restaurant closures. No social distancing or mask wearing (apart from a few transport areas such as London Underground). Kids now back at school. Shops gyms and cinemas all fully open. So of course people who are unvaccinated continue to catch the virus and people who are vaccinated are catching the virus. The majority of infections are now in the 7-24 year age group (see below graph from the ONS).
 

Finally don’t forget that the U.K. is testing around 400,000 a day. That’s ten times more that Thailand in the same population. 
 

So the numbers aren’t in the least surprising given the country is fully open, nearly all people up to the age of 18 remain unvaccinated and efficacy is reducing affecting those who were first vaccinated most, who are also the oldest and most vulnerable.   

Cases, hospitalizations and covid-deaths are ALL going up in the UK, especially the covid-deaths.  Total population full vaccination ratio now +65%.

[kayne189]

There are too many red tapes and additional costs for many tourists to consider Thailand at the moment. 

For a family of 4, the 8000 Baht PCR tests and travel insurance can cost upwards of 70000 baht to the holiday.

Reduce the no. of required PCR tests and some other requirements and restrictions and they might actually come close to some of the predicted visitor numbers.

 

[Poolie]

32 minutes ago, Soidog said:

All the more pathetic they are living like it’s 1921. But thanks for the helpful feedback 

I wouldn't personally know what 1921 looked like to be honest.

Enjoy your day.

[Bob20]

49 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Well said mate - agree 100%. Will that happen? Maybe.

Even WHO counts 32m...

It's more like "the price is right" than accurate information.

https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/th

[Soidog]

24 minutes ago, BlueSphinx said:

Cases, hospitalizations and covid-deaths are ALL going up in the UK, especially the covid-deaths.  Total population full vaccination ratio now +65%.

Yes that’s right. To be expected following the opening of the country. They wouldn’t keep falling or remain flat as they did during lockdown would they.  More movement means more infections. More infections means more hospitalisations and unfortunately more deaths. 
The infection rate will increase further over the next few weeks as kids are all back at school and university students start returning next week. 
 

A good comparison of the efficacy of the vaccine is to look at case numbers and deaths before and after vaccinations. In January 2021 the bi-weekly cases for the UK was approximately 500,000 and deaths were 16,000. Today, the bi-weekly cases are again 500,000 but the deaths are 1,600.   Take a bow Vaccines! 
 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/biweekly-covid-deaths?tab=chart&country=~GBR

[Soidog]

20 minutes ago, Poolie said:

I wouldn't personally know what 1921 looked like to be honest.

Enjoy your day.

If you Google “life in the 1920’s” there’s some good material. Enjoy 

[vlad]

Arn't we all forgetting the PM Issued a warning to people who are giving false information out and spreading fake news. So back up your threats PM and start arresting TAT spokesmen that spread false information when referring to tourist numbers. and misleading us of future numbers expected. 

[riclag]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

But wait….  That’s 80% of adults which means only 60% of entire population. Still way off herd immunity of 75%. (Not that anyone really believes that herd immunity works with this virus anymore apart from places like Thailand).

Your  spot on ! Herd immunity in this country has as much chance in succeeding as do the Thais replacing the over qualified security guard, that’s in office

[Poolie]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

If you Google “life in the 1920’s” there’s some good material. Enjoy 

I dont use Google thanks. It's edited.