News Forum - Prediction for international travellers to Thailand lowered again

[Thaiger]

Tourism researchers have once again downgraded their expectations for the total number of international travellers in 2021 after Thailand has yet to recover from the third wave of Covid-19 starting in April that brought the Delta various and huge infection numbers across the country. The Tourism Authority of Thailand, known for its rose-tinted predictions and press releases, had predicted in January that 2021 would bring 3 million international travellers. They later revised that target to 1.2 million visitors, but now say they expect to hit only 300,000 international travellers by the end of the year. Always the eternal optimist, the […]

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[Bob20]

Who would have guessed? TAT's predictions were too high?

Surely not

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

Well, what makes them think if they didn’t turn up to the Phuket Sandbox, tourists will turn up for the other openings they are advertising. 
 

Well, according to https://www.mots.go.th/mots_en/more_news_new.php?cid=330 for the first 6 months there were 40,477 tourists that arrived in Thailand. Let’s see if they can increase that number in the next 6 months. Noting Phuket sandbox must now be under a bit of pressure to remain open with 80% of hospital beds now taken with Covid patients.

TAT - The King of Wishful Thinking  

[AlexPTY]

it's ok, we will catch up before the end of the year, just need more sandboxes please 

[Bob20]

5 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Well, what makes them think if they didn’t turn up to the Phuket Sandbox, tourists will turn up for the other openings they are advertising. 
 

Well, according to https://www.mots.go.th/mots_en/more_news_new.php?cid=330 for the first 6 months there were 40,477 tourists that arrived in Thailand. Let’s see if they can increase that number in the next 6 months. Noting Phuket sandbox must now be under a bit of pressure to remain open with 80% of hospital beds now taken with Covid patients.

TAT - The King of Wishful Thinking  

Considering that until about a month ago we weren't on other countries red-lists, probably unlikely. But to be fair, they have to create an optimistic message. That's their job.

[ThailandRyan]

Lets see, shall we take a poll, each make a guess and at the end of the year when the totals are released crown the right poster with the tile of Greatest Guesstimator?

[dmacarelli]

There was a chance of recovery, had they acted sooner, and came up with a solid vaccination plan. Now, all bets are off. Prayuth practices what could be referred to a scorched earth form of governance. Destroy everything and everyone within your sight, including the industry that made up $110,000,000,000 of your economy annually. Tourism in Thailand. Gone, baby gone. For good. Permanent destruction. 

They might have saved some money, by giving us only the lower quality options. Higher quality vaccines would have required a demonstration of leadership, courage, vision, a plan of action, and actually caring about the health of the people. None of which these clowns possess. They even had the arrogance to pass on the COVAX program. Now, they are expressing regret. Now. What goons. What simpletons. The fact that the Thai people allowed the army to assume power, and maintain power all this time is a scary thing to ponder. They must figure out a way to get rid of these toxic creatures, and the sooner, the better. 

But, they sure succeeded in sabotaging their economy for years to come, not to mention the possibility that they have destroyed tourism permanently. In reality, it is far more dangerous for foreigners who are bold enough to come here now, having gotten vaccinated and tested, than it is for Thais who are exposed to them. There should be no restrictions placed on them, whatsoever. Welcome to Thailand. Thanks a million for coming. What can we do to make your trip more pleasurable, and to show our gratitude? 

Tourism is not returning anytime soon. The average Thai seems to attribute this to Covid. And that is a significant factor. But, there were a dozen issues plaguing the industry long before covid reared it's ugly head, income was dropping dramatically, as the "number of arrivals" were up, pointing toward a dramatically lower quality of tourist, that Thailand was able to attract. The heavy hitters, and the wealthy tourists have found many other places that meet their need for a nice bottle of wine with dinner (that is not overpriced to a mind boggling degree), a sommelier at the hotel who knows their wine, reasonable luxury goods, so the wife can shop here while on vacation, law and order that addresses jet ski scammers, sewage being dumped into the ocean in resort areas, control over the taxi goons, and far better transportation options (high speed trains, helicopters available for transport, etc). And I am only getting started, as there were a dozen other things that needed to be addressed, and were not on any level, by anyone.

I predict a four to seven year recovery, with real unemployment remaining between 26 and 42% for the next three years, and potentially going down to 19% within five to six years. And I would estimate the actual support base for the leaders has fallen to between 1 and 2%. Mostly army members. 
 

[AussieBob]

I can remember when Tim said he would walk backwards nude down walking street if even 1 million tourists arrive in Thailand. I think TAT should be scrapped and Tim given the job - clearly better qualified and better outcomes.  Seriously though, how the hell does TAT dont get disbanded. They changed the boss and a few senior managers, but they still come out with these outrageous predictions year after year. 

[Storm]

5 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

 But to be fair, they have to create an optimistic message. That's their job.

That is not an optimistic message. An optimistic message would have been we cannot expect much, with the targets and rules we have set, in the current scenario, where the whole world has suffered, but we will try to make our plan as attractive as possible.  What happened was spinning a fairytale. 

[DoUKnowWhoIAm]

45 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

They later revised that target

Whatever estimate they present needs to be divided by 10.

[BIGGLES]

It's very simple really. 

Tourists are not coming!

If you want Tourists, make them welcome, remove all these draconian restrictions.

Try adopting the same policies as Malta, give people incentives (MONEY), to travel and holiday in Thailand. 

KEEP THESE RESTRICTIONS, AND IT'S GAME OVER. 

Uncomfortable decisions, but hey, that's what comes with being in government. 

 

[HolyCowCm]

It's a bird, It's a plane, It's Superrrrrr TAT

[Storm]

2 minutes ago, BIGGLES said:

It's very simple really. 

Tourists are not coming!

If you want Tourists, make them welcome, remove all these draconian restrictions.

Try adopting the same policies as Malta, give people incentives (MONEY), to travel and holiday in Thailand. 

KEEP THESE RESTRICTIONS, AND IT'S GAME OVER. 

Uncomfortable decisions, but hey, that's what comes with being in government. 

Exactly.  Make it easy for tourists to come, not more difficult.  Vaccinated tourists do not want to spend 15 days in QTine, or pay for 3 tests, and spend an inordinate amount of time and money to apply for COEs, and Visas. Make it easy, Consulates should be given authority to deal with all visa types, and COE should be abolished or at least modified and simplified.

[BBY]

Quote

All this, coupled with Thailand’s strict entry policies that require full vaccination, multiple prepaid tests, hotels booked and paid in advance and more, has driven a severe decline in tourism. The first half of 2021 saw just 58,503 travellers arrive, compared with 6.7 million last year which is still several times lower than pre-pandemic figures. Those numbers equate to a 99% drop in international travellers this year.

The above paragraph says it all. Is Thailand really open. No, it’s sandbox open. Same same but very different. 

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, Storm said:

Exactly.  Make it easy for tourists to come, not more difficult.  Vaccinated tourists do not want to spend 15 days in QTine, or pay for 3 tests, and spend an inordinate amount of time and money to apply for COEs, and Visas. Make it easy, Consulates should be given authority to deal with all visa types, and COE should be abolished or at least modified and simplified.

 

1 minute ago, BBY said:

Quote

All this, coupled with Thailand’s strict entry policies that require full vaccination, multiple prepaid tests, hotels booked and paid in advance and more, has driven a severe decline in tourism. The first half of 2021 saw just 58,503 travellers arrive, compared with 6.7 million last year which is still several times lower than pre-pandemic figures. Those numbers equate to a 99% drop in international travellers this year.

The above paragraph says it all. Is Thailand really open. No, it’s sandbox open. Same same but very different. 

 

12 minutes ago, BIGGLES said:

It's very simple really. 

Tourists are not coming!

If you want Tourists, make them welcome, remove all these draconian restrictions.

Try adopting the same policies as Malta, give people incentives (MONEY), to travel and holiday in Thailand. 

KEEP THESE RESTRICTIONS, AND IT'S GAME OVER. 

Uncomfortable decisions, but hey, that's what comes with being in government. 

But even that is difficult, as you can't sweeten any deal for people whose countries have Thailand on the red-list...

Get jabbing! That is the only solution out if this.

[Greeneyes]

55 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Who would have guessed? TAT's predictions were too high?

Surely not

I thought it was TWATs

[HolyCowCm]

4 minutes ago, Greeneyes said:

I thought it was TWATs

But for the other twat I actually really like.

[Bob20]

6 minutes ago, Greeneyes said:

I thought it was TWATs

Not sure what that would stand for...

They are hardly an authority though.

So if you replace Authority with Institute the abbreviation may be closer to the truth already

[AussieBob]

12 minutes ago, Storm said:

Exactly.  Make it easy for tourists to come, not more difficult.  Vaccinated tourists do not want to spend 15 days in QTine, or pay for 3 tests, and spend an inordinate amount of time and money to apply for COEs, and Visas. Make it easy, Consulates should be given authority to deal with all visa types, and COE should be abolished or at least modified and simplified.

We will not be visiting again until there are no tests and no quarantine. No problem with being vaccinated and tested (here) before getting on the plane and OK with mandatory travel insurance - but no tests and no masks and no other restrictions in Thailand.  That of course means 2022 sometime.  

[Bob20]

Just look at the UK and from today Denmark also.

First firm restrictions, then vaccination, then easing with a vaccine-passport and then as of today everything open with no restrictions, no special measures and no passport. 

That's what's possible when you get to 83% full vaccination ratio.

Here they need to stop dithering and waffling and get on with it. Everything else is just marginal.

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

11 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Not sure what that would stand for...

Tourism Wishing Authority of Thailand?

[Bob20]

5 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

We will not be visiting again until there are no tests and no quarantine. No problem with being vaccinated and tested (here) before getting on the plane and OK with mandatory travel insurance - but no tests and no masks and no other restrictions in Thailand.  That of course means 2022 sometime.  

Guess again...

[HappyExpat]

1 hour ago, AlexPTY said:

it's ok, we will catch up before the end of the year, just need more sandboxes please 

And each traveler will need to spend 16 billion baht. All good!

[BlueSphinx]

3 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Just look at the UK and from today Denmark also.

First firm restrictions, then vaccination, then easing with a vaccine-passport and then as of today everything open with no restrictions, no special measures and no passport. 

That's what's possible when you get to 83% full vaccination ratio.

Here they need to stop dithering and waffling and get on with it. Everything else is just marginal.

Yes I looked at UK covid-death figures for last 3 months.  And indeed, as you state, that's what's possible when you get to 80% full vaccination ratio.

[HappyExpat]

1 minute ago, Bob20 said:

7 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

That of course means 2022 sometime.  

Guess again...

Seriously, I think that's way over-optimistic.