Thursday Covid Update: High of 20,920 new cases and 160 deaths

[Stonker]

16 hours ago, Stardust said:

When 87% of the population in Thailand the average is now 4600 baht in the bank accounts then Thailand is now one of the poorest countries in the world there are no billions they are broke! 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2160243/how-to-save-country-when-its-broke

He has some interesting facts and unusual maths.

 

He asks, for example, "how could 5.4 million factory workers bring their production lines home?".

In his next paragraph he says that paying them to stay at home would cost "300 billion baht per month".

Well, dividing that 300 billion baht by 5.4 million factory workers comes to 55,000 per month. 

55,000 baht per month is pretty good pay for a factory worker in Thailand on minimum hours without overtime!

 

He says that Thailand's excess liquidity dropped from 624 billion baht in January 2021 to only 73 billion baht in June as if that's all Thailand has. He may well be right on excess liquidity as that's how much GDP has reportedly dropped by, but he's blurring the lines between excess liquidity, GDP, and reserves.

 

He's ignored reserves completely, as if Thailand has none, although Thailand actually still has at least $234 billion in foreign reserves - that's 7.8  trillion baht (7,800 billion) or over 100 times the "excess liquidity" he's talking about and approaching half the country's total annual GDP over the last decade.

 

Things may well have changed since I last read Lipsey, but as far as I know if you've got over half your annual income in the bank as a "reserve", even if your income's dropped you're a long way off  being "broke" - tight-fisted, possibly, but not "broke".

 

As for his claim that "87% of Thais have an average of just 4,622 baht in their bank accounts", it's impossible to know what that signifies given his previous economies with the truth and cherry picking in the article. 

Including children, who make up nearly 20% of "Thais"? 

Current bank accounts or deposit, as 83 million of the 95 million Thai bank accounts are nominally deposit accounts, or all accounts?

Based on the Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research study in December 2019 that found that a third of Thais kept less than 500 baht in their bank accounts, or something else?

 

Who know?

 

As a comparison, reportedly "15% of people in the UK have no savings at all", including "40% of people between the age of 22 and 29 years" and "low income families have less than GBP 93 in savings" - that's 22% of the British population with less than 4,622 baht saved by the entire family, not per person.

To compare Brits to the rest of the world, using the one source to try to avoid argument, that's similar to Australians, more than double Americans, nearly ten times Latvians, but half as much as the French, a third of the Germans, and an eighth of the Japanese.

 

..... but it's only savings, not wealth or assets, so on its own it means either nothing or whatever you want it to mean.

 

..... what's not arguable, though, is that even if your income drops, if you still have half your annual income in the bank in foreign reserves, and that's an income you've been living on comfortably for a decade, then you're not "broke"!

 

Thailand has $234 billion / 7.8 trillion baht in foreign reserves - that's not "broke"!

[Pete01]

Another perspective is that Khon Kaen and NSW are having roughly the same amount of new cases each day. 
That is not good Thailand:(

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, Chaimai said:

You might be flattering yourself by talking in depth about GDP in Thailand.......the black economy is huge and banks are only the thin end of any debt wedge.

Loans from within the villages are usurious despite there being an official maximum borrowing rate 15%.

5/6% per month is not unusual. A friend lends at 3% per annum, charged on a daily basis until repaid - no penalty for early payment, and he has a constant supply of customers.

Borrowing 100,000 Baht on the security of a chanote of 3 rai of farmland does not involve much due diligence - or credit assessment. In fact there are many 'agents' going round pushing the availability of loans....... a rich source of business is the illegal gambling dens.

Ok I make very easy and simple for you to understand:

I lend you 200$ privatly and you go to the shopping mall with that 200$ and buy a smart phone and .....ups...your 200$ is counted in the gdp!

[King Cotton]

5 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Ok I make very easy and simple for you to understand:

I lend you 200$ privatly and you go to the shopping mall with that 200$ and buy a smart phone and .....ups...your 200$ is counted in the gdp!

OK, smarty-pants . . . don't overdo it. Most members have an inkling what GDP is and roughly how it works . . . very roughly in my case, I must confess!

Otherwise, some excellent posts recently . . . good reading and happy days!

[RWD]

It is interesting that media have focussed on infection rates and not addressed the real issue - fatalities.

I updated a comparison of  the infection rates, and fatality rates -  Makes for an interesting conclusion - That Thailand still out-performs pretty much most other nations.

Covid Update AUG 6 2021.xlsx

[mcambl61]

3 minutes ago, RWD said:

It is interesting that media have focussed on infection rates and not addressed the real issue - fatalities.

I updated a comparison of  the infection rates, and fatality rates -  Makes for an interesting conclusion - That Thailand still out-performs pretty much most other nations.

Covid Update AUG 6 2021.xlsx 11.2 kB · 0 downloads

Well done sir. 

 

The out of perspective fear mongering and panic being pushed is completely ignoring the fatality rate, and in addition the age groups. 

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

Yes exactly, Sweden never had a 'proper' lock-down. 

Well, at last we're agreed on something.

 

Since they "never had a 'proper' lockdown" that suggests beyond much doubt that anyone who held them up as an example of lockdowns failing, saying that "Sweden being one of those 'black swans' that show that lockdowns are useless" was talking out of their backside.

 

2 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

But surprise, surprise > the Swedish figures are no worse than those of countries (like the UK) that went for a hard lock-down, and in the process destroyed much of their small-business economy.  

Well, that's not remotely correct like so much of what you say, but even assuming it is for the sake of argument, the idea that if it were it would prove anything  seriously defies belief.

 

For it to have any meaning at all you would have to be comparing like for like (population density, travel hubs, etc) and then comparing two similar countries where one had locked down at the right times in the right way and the other hadn't locked down at all.

 

The UK's lockdowns failed because they were imposed at the wrong time, applied to the wrong people.

Sweden's lack of lockdowns failed just as badly because they never applied them correctly at all.

 

Neither did the right thing, but the UK shot itself in the foot by damaging  lot of small businesses as well - that doesn't mean Sweden got it right!

[Stonker]

15 hours ago, Soidog said:

Thanks for the link and all very interesting data. The key comment is right at the end where he suggests they need 2 Trillion Baht. That’s around £GB44 billion  or $US61 billion dollars. That is not such a large amount of borrowing for a normal Thai economy to service. It’s biggest problem is that it can’t get the economy working to service the debt until the Covid wave is over. I fear Thailand’s only option will be to borrow from China, and that will come with more than financial strings attached !!

2 trillion baht is a quarter of Thailand's foreign currency reserves.

 

If that's all that's needed, why does Thailand need to borrow it from anyone?

 

Like others, you're being blinded by the BS - and there's plenty of it!

[Donald]

8 hours ago, stuhan said:

On the issue of lockdowns, whether they work or not,look at the countries in the world now today, who are still locking down because of rising case's, if lockdowns were shown to be u/s why are so many countries still adopting  them, and issuing green pass's,mandatory vaccinations & masks. Covid is killing young and old, otherwise healthy people not just those with health problems, read the world news not just thailand.

It's because they are worried or scared yes that's a fact

Lockdowns do work and save lives,economies in the long run, And mass vaccinations are the only other way to deal with it. Its probably the number and type of vaccines and mixing of vaccines that"s caused so many variants to appear rather than using one type .

Lock downs and other measures don't work. They are just used as a tool to keep the sheeple in a perpetuate state of fear and paranoia, so to make them obedient and submissive. Why does Sweden for the last two months have nearly zero Covid deaths and more importantly why don't you hear this in the main stream media ? Easily checked on        https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/                                        Not fake news or censored big tech. There is an alternative agenda being played out and Covid is the perfect excuse to enforce the agenda.                                          

[Chaimai]

5 hours ago, Stardust said:

Ok I make very easy and simple for you to understand:

I lend you 200$ privatly and you go to the shopping mall with that 200$ and buy a smart phone and .....ups...your 200$ is counted in the gdp!

You have missed the point completely.

 

Never mind.

[stuhan]

2 hours ago, Donald said:

Lock downs and other measures don't work. They are just used as a tool to keep the sheeple in a perpetuate state of fear and paranoia, so to make them obedient and submissive. Why does Sweden for the last two months have nearly zero Covid deaths and more importantly why don't you hear this in the main stream media ? Easily checked on        https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/                                        Not fake news or censored big tech. There is an alternative agenda being played out and Covid is the perfect excuse to enforce the agenda.                                          

Just another anti-lockdown lover, you should really do your home work properly before sounding off that lockdowns don't work, they work that's why most of the world  is implementing them.So stop spreading your trolling comments and move on,i have better things to do with my time than continue a thread that's going nowhere. Ta Ta

[BlueSphinx]

19 minutes ago, stuhan said:

Just another anti-lockdown lover, you should really do your home work properly before sounding off that lockdowns don't work, they work that's why most of the world  is implementing them.So stop spreading your trolling comments and move on,i have better things to do with my time than continue a thread that's going nowhere. Ta Ta

Your final double argument Ta x 2 cannot be argued against.  So I bow my head and will now do a small lock-down losers ritual dance to celebrate this victory of Ta reason over the trolling behavior of those that have access to the facts and data.

[stuhan]

8 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

Your final double argument Ta x 2 cannot be argued against.  So I bow my head and will now do a small lock-down losers ritual dance to celebrate this victory of Ta reason over the trolling behavior of those that have access to the facts and data.

At last. Ta ta