The vaccine peak efficacy is approximately 6 months, similar to that of the flu vaccine. As the benefits of the previous inoculations wear off during holiday season, we will see a surge in the number of infections with complications. Add to that the foreign carriers bringing in new variants for the holiday season and I expect that there will be a spike in the number of infections around mid January. The problem that arises is that Thais rush to hospitals with outpatient manageable illnesses and expect magic potions and pills to cure illnesses that can resolve naturally in a few days. (Westerners can be just as bad.) If there is an exponential type growth, as in the past, the hospital system may become overwhelmed for a period of time. I will not be surprised if a mask mandate returns even if it is for a short period as the government will need to show it is doing something.