Covid UPDATE Saturday: 10,082 new infections, news briefs

[Soidog]

6 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

This is the chart of the Baht to AUD since they floated in 1997.  Clearly the Baht is still way over-valued and I believe it will drop more - another 20+% I reckon.  If you look at the chart it is obvious the Junta created an atmosphere (managed) to raise the Baht - some say to pay for Military purchases  and grandiose China-style infrastructure projects to create the false illusion of economic growth - I dont know enough to argue against that. 

Similar story with the U.K. Pound. What I don’t understand about exchange rates is how they seem to be counterintuitive to what you see with the news. A couple of weeks ago, with the U.K. vaccination program surging and an announcement of massive investment by Nissan and the release of lockdown on July 19th, the Bank of England announced the U.K. would return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than thought. On the same day there were further government protests in BKK. Covid cases were rising, vaccination was stalled, the Bank of Thailand cutting growth forecasts for the fourth time in as many weeks.  Concern over the civil war in Myanmar potentially spreading to Thai border regions. What happened? The Baht strengthened by nearly 1% that day!!!  Now I’m sure someone with better knowledge will explain it’s all about foreign reserves, indications of exports and growth etc etc but WTF!! 

[AussieBob]

12 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Similar story with the U.K. Pound. What I don’t understand about exchange rates is how they seem to be counterintuitive to what you see with the news. A couple of weeks ago, with the U.K. vaccination program surging and an announcement of massive investment by Nissan and the release of lockdown on July 19th, the Bank of England announced the U.K. would return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than thought. On the same day there were further government protests in BKK. Covid cases were rising, vaccination was stalled, the Bank of Thailand cutting growth forecasts for the fourth time in as many weeks.  Concern over the civil war in Myanmar potentially spreading to Thai border regions. What happened? The Baht strengthened by nearly 1% that day!!!  Now I’m sure someone with better knowledge will explain it’s all about foreign reserves, indications of exports and growth etc etc but WTF!! 

No one can explain the exchange rate changes - or the stock market movements. Especially the experts who get it wrong way more than right. What I can say is that the Baht is over-valued based on history and that is as good a guide/expert as anything else. Aside from the Y2K slump, and the GFC crash, the Baht was at a similar level against the AUD for almost 2 decades since they floated the Baht in 1997.  But since 2014 there was a (deliberate) increasing of the value of the Bahjt against all the major currencies, including the AUD.  That only stopped happening in early 2020 when the covid numbers could no longer hide the true value of the Baht.  In my opinion the Thai economy which is so reliant on exports and tourism (which is very negatively affected by a high Baht) started to contract severely in 2015. However, that was 'hidden' behind grandiose Govt projects and military acquisitions (huge spending thus creating fake growth). I think there is more decline coming in the Thai Baht and economy - a lot more. 

[KaptainRob]

FX is all a bit of mystery, and I'm far from knowledgeable, though one has to look beyond 'today's events' for a realistic view of future movements, eg:-

Thailand has massive foreign currency reserves and is a powerhouse of manufacturing and IT exports. 

During this pandemic nearly all major (country) exporters are similarly affected for various reasons:- factory closures, lack of demand and logistics ... eg shipping difficulties. 

The Baht slides a little.  

My crystal ball agrees with AussieBob more out of wishful thinking than anything concrete.

[Guevara]

7 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

No one can explain the exchange rate changes - or the stock market movements. Especially the experts who get it wrong way more than right. What I can say is that the Baht is over-valued based on history and that is as good a guide/expert as anything else. Aside from the Y2K slump, and the GFC crash, the Baht was at a similar level against the AUD for almost 2 decades since they floated the Baht in 1997.  But since 2014 there was a (deliberate) increasing of the value of the Bahjt against all the major currencies, including the AUD.  That only stopped happening in early 2020 when the covid numbers could no longer hide the true value of the Baht.  In my opinion the Thai economy which is so reliant on exports and tourism (which is very negatively affected by a high Baht) started to contract severely in 2015. However, that was 'hidden' behind grandiose Govt projects and military acquisitions (huge spending thus creating fake growth). I think there is more decline coming in the Thai Baht and economy - a lot more. 

I have to agree, the worst is yet to come for the Baht. The first thing that global stock markets use as a yard stick is the strength and viability of the US Dollar (even down to the price of middle east crude oil per barrel, always quoted in US$) Because Thailand is so reliant on tourism to remain sustainable it can cling on for a limited time without plummeting but for the past few months it has lost some ground. I tend to use Superrich as a guide or Siamex and in March 2020 I could get 40 Bahts for £1 sterling. Now if you exchange a considerable sum you can get 45.40 Bahts for £1 sterling. The longer the tourist industry remains stagnant the better the exchange rate. If Prayut's 'dream' of 120 days doesn't materialize and tourism may pick up November/December, the rate could well be 55 or even 60 Bahts/ £1 sterling.

[Chaimai]

46 minutes ago, Guevara said:

I have to agree, the worst is yet to come for the Baht. The first thing that global stock markets use as a yard stick is the strength and viability of the US Dollar (even down to the price of middle east crude oil per barrel, always quoted in US$) Because Thailand is so reliant on tourism to remain sustainable it can cling on for a limited time without plummeting but for the past few months it has lost some ground. I tend to use Superrich as a guide or Siamex and in March 2020 I could get 40 Bahts for £1 sterling. Now if you exchange a considerable sum you can get 45.40 Bahts for £1 sterling. The longer the tourist industry remains stagnant the better the exchange rate. If Prayut's 'dream' of 120 days doesn't materialize and tourism may pick up November/December, the rate could well be 55 or even 60 Bahts/ £1 sterling.

 

 

I have been waiting 15 years for the Baht to collapse.

 

The countries massive reserves should ensure that won't happen.

 

GBP 55/60 ....... I wish, that is a pipe dream.

 

71 when I first came here in 2006, 63 when I bought land in 2008, 53 pre-Brexit....... traded at an average of 50 before that...... post Brexit down to 37 ish I think.

 

The 'recovery' to 45 has been hard gained and supported by Baht weakness..... not sure it has the legs to get past 50......but here's hoping  -  and dreaming.

[Stardust]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

This is a great point. I think many unvaccinated and vaccinated people will contract the virus in the next 12 months. As the world becomes more vaccinated, we need to stop worrying so much about case numbers and focus on hospitalisations and deaths. In the U.K. we know (and live with the fact) that on average 10,000 people a year die from flu. We don’t report how many people caught it and survived. We happily accept the risk and older people are encouraged to get an annual flu jab. 
 

I know three people in the last few weeks who have got Covid. All fully vaccinated and all had a few days of what was like a heavy flu symptoms. Aches and pain, very bad headaches and a high temperature. All recovered quickly and now back at work. They all said the worst part was not knowing how bad it was going to get. A feeling that had they not been vaccinated would have been far worse.  

But the Thai government made a big mess with the vaccine management and crashed the country, the peoples health and the economy. 

[Stardust]

On 7/17/2021 at 6:40 PM, AussieBob said:

No one can explain the exchange rate changes - or the stock market movements. Especially the experts who get it wrong way more than right. What I can say is that the Baht is over-valued based on history and that is as good a guide/expert as anything else. Aside from the Y2K slump, and the GFC crash, the Baht was at a similar level against the AUD for almost 2 decades since they floated the Baht in 1997.  But since 2014 there was a (deliberate) increasing of the value of the Bahjt against all the major currencies, including the AUD.  That only stopped happening in early 2020 when the covid numbers could no longer hide the true value of the Baht.  In my opinion the Thai economy which is so reliant on exports and tourism (which is very negatively affected by a high Baht) started to contract severely in 2015. However, that was 'hidden' behind grandiose Govt projects and military acquisitions (huge spending thus creating fake growth). I think there is more decline coming in the Thai Baht and economy - a lot 

1997 yes the same numbers and I remember the time after the crash. It is like a dejavue

 

<deleted non-approved LINK>

[satpete]

according to new infections,

some cares for money but not for people

[JamesR]

The numbers really show you the importance of the vaccine, in the UK we have about 50,000 new cases per day due to the Indian variant, but there are around 49 deaths, in Thailand that would be around 705 deaths per day according to the ratio of deaths and cases mentioned in the article above.

Plus in the UK people who have been vaccinated with two doses generally have less symptoms and do not need to go to hospital, so what Thailand has to do as we all know is get needles in arms as soon as possible.

The UK and other countries really demonstrates the vaccines really work, but of course the nutters will be out there with their usual misinformed nonsense rabbiting on.

Oh yes, the majority of people in the UK who have serious symptoms or die are mostly unvaccinated by choice. 

[bushav8r]

19 hours ago, AussieBob said:

It was always going to happen - and there it is - 10,000 in one day - and 141 deaths.   I would not be surprised to see some PR messages over the weekend - followed by some even more serious lockdowns and restrictions announced on Monday/Tuesday.  Now might be a good time to visit Makro and stock up on essential items - before others do the same and they are gone.  But please - do not take all the toilet paper like the bogans here and in UK/USA did - learn to use the bum gun. 

What is a bogan?

[Soidog]

2 minutes ago, bushav8r said:

What is a bogan?

Do you mean what is a Bum Gun? It’s a small water spray attachment found at the side of Thai toilets and used to clean your ass !! Once clean, tissue paper/toilet paper is simply used to dry your ass. I must admit, it’s one of the things I miss when I return to the U.K. the method of just using toilet paper seems so unclean in comparison. I hope that was your intended question

[bushav8r]

30 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Do you mean what is a Bum Gun? It’s a small water spray attachment found at the side of Thai toilets and used to clean your ass !! Once clean, tissue paper/toilet paper is simply used to dry your ass. I must admit, it’s one of the things I miss when I return to the U.K. the method of just using toilet paper seems so unclean in comparison. I hope that was your intended question

no

[bushav8r]

 

bo·gan¹

/ˈbōɡ(ə)n/

Learn to pronounce

 

noun

DEROGATORY•INFORMAL

 

1. an uncouth or unsophisticated person regarded as being of low social status.

   "some bogans yelled at us from their cars"

 

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, bushav8r said:

no

Umm ok. So I’m lost then. Why did you ask what a Bogan was? 

[JamesE]

33 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Umm ok. So I’m lost then. Why did you ask what a Bogan was? 

"Why, yes, waiter. I'll have what @bushav8ris smoking."

[Chaimai]

53 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Umm ok. So I’m lost then. Why did you ask what a Bogan was? 

 

 

I believe Aussie Bob referred to a "bogan' in one of his posts.....possibly the one that bushav8r replied to (but the the full original post is not visible on the thread when replying).....if that makes sense !

[bushav8r]

34 minutes ago, JamesE said:

"Why, yes, waiter. I'll have what @bushav8ris smoking."

How rude.  You can use whatever drugs have already addled your mind.

[AussieBob]

12 hours ago, Guevara said:

I have to agree, the worst is yet to come for the Baht. The first thing that global stock markets use as a yard stick is the strength and viability of the US Dollar (even down to the price of middle east crude oil per barrel, always quoted in US$) Because Thailand is so reliant on tourism to remain sustainable it can cling on for a limited time without plummeting but for the past few months it has lost some ground. I tend to use Superrich as a guide or Siamex and in March 2020 I could get 40 Bahts for £1 sterling. Now if you exchange a considerable sum you can get 45.40 Bahts for £1 sterling. The longer the tourist industry remains stagnant the better the exchange rate. If Prayut's 'dream' of 120 days doesn't materialize and tourism may pick up November/December, the rate could well be 55 or even 60 Bahts/ £1 sterling.

I use the website trading economics for exchange rates - they provide up to 25+ years comparisons.  AUDTHB Exchange Rate (tradingeconomics.com)

I would add to what you said that there are 3 main parts of the economy in Thailand.  There is the elite/wealthy (unspeakable about what they do), the manufacturing/farming, and the tourism.  The high Baht is good for the elite/wealthy part, but is bad for the other 2 parts.  The vast majority of Thais are involved in the second two parts. Thailand undertook the 'China Solution' regarding economic growth, by spending up big on public projects and expenditures, which make the overall numbers look good - but it was in fact bad for the majority of Thais who saw things declining in 2016/2017.  Coupled to that is the fact that the world 'currency police' are looking for those countries that manipulate their currencies downwards (China?) to enable them to grow their exports - Thailand was not 'questioned' as their currency was increasing under the Junta. There has been many dire media predictions of 'blowback' since 2016 about the Junta's strategy when the baht becomes unsustainable (for exports/tourism), and then the Copvid 'crash' affected everyone so badly that it was not 'noticed' how bad it was in Thailand.  As other economies started to recover from the Covid induced problems, the Thai economy and the level of the Baht became 'exposed' and has been dropping ever since.  The problem is that like the Titanic, a country's currency does not always move quickly and takes many months to 'turn' - so things that might seem bad news today dont really affect the exchange rate tomorrow.  Unless of course it hits an iceberg and I can see a few coming - and one of them might be a big one (as happened in 1996/7).  

[AussieBob]

3 hours ago, bushav8r said:

What is a bogan?

A picture is worth a thousand words:

Dont get me wrong - they are very friendly people (mostly) and they are OK (in small doses). But their understanding of how to get things done and how to do them right is not one of their strong suits - she'll be right mate is their mantra - for everything.  They love Football, Meat Pies, Kangaroos and Beer.  I like all of those things - but in moderation. And going to Maccas or KFC is not going to a restaurant for a 'fancy night out'.  

https://www.dmarge.com/signs-youre-a-bogan 

 

Edited July 18, 2021 by AussieBob

[bushav8r]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

Umm ok. So I’m lost then. Why did you ask what a Bogan was? 

I was referring to the post that I quoted.  Your fascination with toilets is duly noted.   Perhaps the cleaning that you referred to is why Thai people smile so much.

[bushav8r]

3 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

A picture is worth a thousand words:

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/07/02/article-2677562-1F4D637B00000578-836_634x943.jpg

Dont get me wrong - they are very friendly people (mostly) and they are OK (in small doses). But their understanding of how to get things done and how to do them right is not one of their strong suits - she'll be right mate is their mantra - for everything.  They love Football, Meat Pies, Kangaroos and Beer.  I like all of those things - but in moderation. And going to Maccas or KFC is not going to a restaurant for a 'fancy night out'.  

What's A Bogan? Are You A Bogan? (dmarge.com)

Is that a photo of you?

[AussieBob]

6 minutes ago, bushav8r said:

Is that a photo of you?

How dare you disparage my mum !!

[bushav8r]

2 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

How dare you disparage my mum !!

 

Thanks for making me laugh.  

[Kes]

21 hours ago, MikeW said:

And other provinces I live in prachinburi 

To give vaccines by nationality is very discriminatory. We are all human. Everybody should be given the same chance at vaccination close to their homes. 

[Kes]

20 hours ago, BookShe said:

No need for more experiment. Just get the funky vaccines.

The vaccines are an experiment. While current data may look good testing them is far from over.