Phuket Sandbox woes: 2 foreign Covid-19 cases, Delta variant

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

3 hours ago, Stonker said:

Where did you read that?

Maybe this

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2026670 
or this

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/9/e2020834118
 

 

[JohninDublin]

18 minutes ago, Soidog said:

You need to know the number of tests carried out before you can compare various countries. If the test rate per 100,000 is different then you need to make allowances regarding the infection rate. My feeling is the infection rate in Thailand is around 20,000-30,000 a day currently, very similar to the U.K.  I would estimate the deaths to be around 300-500 a day in Thailand

Regardless of the test rates, and even if your estimates are correct, the figure from the UK, the 6th richest country on the planet are a disgrace when you compare their resources to that of TH.

There will eventually be a public enquiry into this, and if the epidemiologists are set to work, they will probably find that a huge number of "patient zeroes" for the Delta variant flew in from India with negative PCR tests and were never investigated. I'd be very interested  to know, how many of those who took the test, were denied boarding because they did not have a negative test? I'd say, there is a very good chance that many of these people never even took the test, but got the cert anyway.

I can't say it often enough: The UK and England before that, has an 800 year history of hearing of foreign plagues which eventually end up killing many of the citizenry. Sir John Snow invented the science of epidemiology in 1854, so we knew how disease was spread. We knew as soon as we saw the rate at which this virus was being spread, that it was only a matter of time before it would be brought in by foreign travel and we initially did nothing with our borders for 6 months even though we were a self-contained island. We also knew about the rampant corruption in India, yet nobody sought to question any of these PCY+R tests. These were people who not unnaturally, did not want to spend £2500 on a two week stay in a lockdown hotel, and or, possibly lose their jobs because they were unavailable for work. Within weeks, Delta was the dominant variant. It beggars belief, that none of these PCR tests were ever challenged.

To give you some idea of the virtually total incompetence of the UK gov in this matter, recently, they dedicated a terminal at LHR to flights arriving from high risk countries, while still allowing flights from lower risk countries to use the same terminal. The high risk passengers were funnelled down one side of a rope barrier, while the low risk were on the other side. I am sure we all know how effective ropes are at preventing the spread of disease.

Yes! Undoubtedly TH has made mistakes and their infection rate MAY truly be as bad as the UK right now.  But it never had the advantages of the UK in terms of being a relatively extremely wealthy island. All things considered, TH has done a great job until recently, and what they need now need to do, is to dump every bottle of Sinovax in the Kwai and Mekong rivers and start again.

[Soidog]

11 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Regardless of the test rates, and even if your estimates are correct, the figure from the UK, the 6th richest country on the planet are a disgrace when you compare their resources to that of TH.

There will eventually be a public enquiry into this, and if the epidemiologists are set to work, they will probably find that a huge number of "patient zeroes" for the Delta variant flew in from India with negative PCR tests and were never investigated. I'd be very interested  to know, how many of those who took the test, were denied boarding because they did not have a negative test? I'd say, there is a very good chance that many of these people never even took the test, but got the cert anyway.

I can't say it often enough: The UK and England before that, has an 800 year history of hearing of foreign plagues which eventually end up killing many of the citizenry. Sir John Snow invented the science of epidemiology in 1854, so we knew how disease was spread. We knew as soon as we saw the rate at which this virus was being spread, that it was only a matter of time before it would be brought in by foreign travel and we initially did nothing with our borders for 6 months even though we were a self-contained island. We also knew about the rampant corruption in India, yet nobody sought to question any of these PCY+R tests. These were people who not unnaturally, did not want to spend £2500 on a two week stay in a lockdown hotel, and or, possibly lose their jobs because they were unavailable for work. Within weeks, Delta was the dominant variant. It beggars belief, that none of these PCR tests were ever challenged.

To give you some idea of the virtually total incompetence of the UK gov in this matter, recently, they dedicated a terminal at LHR to flights arriving from high risk countries, while still allowing flights from lower risk countries to use the same terminal. The high risk passengers were funnelled down one side of a rope barrier, while the low risk were on the other side. I am sure we all know how effective ropes are at preventing the spread of disease.

Yes! Undoubtedly TH has made mistakes and their infection rate MAY truly be as bad as the UK right now.  But it never had the advantages of the UK in terms of being a relatively extremely wealthy island. All things considered, TH has done a great job until recently, and what they need now need to do, is to dump every bottle of Sinovax in the Kwai and Mekong rivers and start again.

Wow. All I said was you need to know the test to infection rates!!

[yselmike]

A 90 year old Belgian women has just died,she was infected with the Alpha and Beta variants.I wouldn't book any flights yet as there may be a lot of new variants in the pipeline.

[Soidog]

26 minutes ago, yselmike said:

A 90 year old Belgian women has just died,she was infected with the Alpha and Beta variants.I wouldn't book any flights yet as there may be a lot of new variants in the pipeline.

She hasn’t just died. She died in March and was unvaccinated. 
 

Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57761343

[JohninDublin]

23 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Wow. All I said was you need to know the test to infection rates!!

Apologies if you think I am being confrontational with you. I am not. I never challenged your suspicions about the real infection rate in TH.

All I was trying to say is that all matters considered, until recently, and possibly it still is the case depending on whether your suspicions are correct, TH is well ahead of the far better resourced UK which also has the advantage of being an Island with border controls. It's ok for you to say, "This is what I believe is the true current numbers and testing would vindicate me ", but even if you are correct, the deaths have to have been under-reported by 98% and infections by 94% to match the UK's figures. In short, my post is more to do with the failings of the UK, who have an almost identical population to TH.

Just to add, my particular interest in this matter is because Phuket is attempting to do what I think the UK should have done from day 1 which is to introduce strict border controls. Whether I am right will largely depend on whether the sandbox is successful, but right now, the rest of TH looks like it is about to implode, and the signs from Phuket are worrying. Is it a blip, or the shape of things to come?

[yselmike]

21 minutes ago, Soidog said:

She hasn’t just died. She died in March and was unvaccinated. 
 

Covid: Woman aged 90 died with double variant infection https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57761343

Fair enough I only read the headline.my point is that because in  most of the planet covid is free to do its thing it's going to mutate.The UK government is starting to row back on facemasks it looks like they may stay on public transport and some public spaces.still wouldn't book a flight though.Here in the Netherlands they have cancelled all festivals and closed the clubs,bars now have to close at midnight,the newspapers are talking about the Netherlands going back on the red list.

[Soidog]

40 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Apologies if you think I am being confrontational with you. I am not. I never challenged your suspicions about the real infection rate in TH.

All I was trying to say is that all matters considered, until recently, and possibly it still is the case depending on whether your suspicions are correct, TH is well ahead of the far better resourced UK which also has the advantage of being an Island with border controls. It's ok for you to say, "This is what I believe is the true current numbers and testing would vindicate me ", but even if you are correct, the deaths have to have been under-reported by 98% and infections by 94% to match the UK's figures. In short, my post is more to do with the failings of the UK, who have an almost identical population to TH.

Just to add, my particular interest in this matter is because Phuket is attempting to do what I think the UK should have done from day 1 which is to introduce strict border controls. Whether I am right will largely depend on whether the sandbox is successful, but right now, the rest of TH looks like it is about to implode, and the signs from Phuket are worrying. Is it a blip, or the shape of things to come?

Ok, I’ll say some more on this.
 

I agree the U.K. could and should have done better. However, a lot of people think the U.K. should have locked down hard, like New Zealand or Thailand. I’m not saying that a harder lockdown shouldn’t have taken place. I just think we all have to be careful comparing one country with another. The U.K. is both economically, demographically, politically and socially  very different to many countries that locked down hard. They also took the view to support workers and industry to a level rarely seen in other countries. This amount of support needs to be paid for, and part of that is funded by helping to keep industry ticking along. A far better comparison would be to countries like Sweden and Holland. Both these countries, along with the U.K., initially embarked upon the herd immunity strategy whereby they had few formal rules and relied upon people to follow guidelines thinking it would spread through the population and slow down. This was a deliberate strategy. It was a mistake only with hindsight. It wasn’t as a result of a series of errors or poor planning. It was a deliberate and calculated risk strategy which proved, in hindsight to be a wrong. 
 

Having seen the effects of this, the U.K. and eventually Holland and later Sweden then moved to a stricter lockdown strategy to contain it, releasing the lockdowns as and when case rates and critically, hospital admissions were manageable. This was never an attempt to keep Covid as close to zero as possible. That was never the aim by countries like the U.K. To have zero would not have been seen a success while shelling out billions of pounds to keep the country locked down. The U.K. deliberately controlled case numbers so it’s health service could cope, while aggressively pursuing a vaccination policy that is now allowing the country to open up. Meanwhile countries like Thailand and Australia are still locked down and the economic damage to people will prove to be far more damaging to society than the U.K. approach. Not good for the 130,000 who have died, but that is what governments do. They balance risk and reward. We need another couple of years before we can truly say who got the balance right and what I’m sure that will show is that neither the U.K. nor Thailand will be up there in the top 10. The U.K. actually ended up with one of the worst (short term) hits to its GDP and one of the highest fatality rates.  It will be places like Taiwan and South Korea that got it right. Some of that is perhaps due to more recent experience of dealing with SARS. In the final analysis I think history will show that those developed economies who also kept infection rates low, also came out well economically  

To judge “success” of handling this virus I think you need a complex formula of comparing: Deaths, Suicide rates,  initial economic loss. Long term economic loss, economic support to people. Loss of social freedoms, population, demographics, Political structures,  Social compliance of laws.  And this is why the debate will rage on. It has never been a zero sum game. 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Soidog
Typo

[Soidog]

11 minutes ago, yselmike said:

Fair enough I only read the headline.my point is that because in  most of the planet covid is free to do its thing it's going to mutate.The UK government is starting to row back on facemasks it looks like they may stay on public transport and some public spaces.still wouldn't book a flight though.Here in the Netherlands they have cancelled all festivals and closed the clubs,bars now have to close at midnight,the newspapers are talking about the Netherlands going back on the red list.

Yes I totally agree. It’s become a bit of a WHO strapline, but it’s true that “no one is safe until we are all safe”. It’s also true that unless people change some of their habits in relation to food and destroying natural environments, it’s only a matter of time before Covid-31 or Covid-43 hits the world. 

[David297]

1 hour ago, yselmike said:

A 90 year old Belgian women has just died,she was infected with the Alpha and Beta variants.I wouldn't book any flights yet as there may be a lot of new variants in the pipeline.

I think the point to be made about variants is that, with Delta taking over the UK and Thailand (not to mention the rest of the world) these countries are probably becoming breeding grounds for the next variant, whatever that may be.  Good reason to control the spread of Delta, not let it rip as in the UK?

 

[Soidog]

45 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Phuket is attempting to do what I think the UK should have done from day 1 which is to introduce strict border controls.

Just to comment on a particular thing you said. I understand the overall idea of locking down an island and carefully checking people who enter. But Phuket doesn’t have hundreds of thousands of nationals who are out of the country with passports granting them legal free access to the U.K. visiting families or on business in India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the U.S, Spain etc etc. Phuket doesn’t have 68 million people who need feeding with massive imports via boat and tunnel from the mainland.  Phuket is a tiny island in a country. Your analogy works to a point. But It would be fairer to compare the Isle of Wight with Phuket. 
 

But let’s be clear, I’m not saying the U.K. got it right. I returned to the U.K. in May last year and was appalled at how I just got off the flight from Bangkok and strolled in. Not so much as a temperature check!
Overall, I’d give the U.K. 1 out of 10 for initial response. 7/10 for helping people financially and 10/10 for its vaccine strategy. Total 17/30

I’d give Thailand 8/10 for initial response 1/10 for helping people financially (by the way they can afford it!), and 1/10 for its vaccine strategy. Total 10/30

[JohninDublin]

31 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Ok, I’ll say some more on this.
 

I agree the U.K. could and should have done better. However, a lot of people think the U.K. should have locked down hard, like New Zealand or Thailand. I’m not saying that a harder lockdown shouldn’t have taken place. I just think we all have to be careful comparing one country with another. The U.K. is both economically, demographically, politically and socially  very different to many countries that locked down hard. They also took the view to support workers and industry to a level rarely seen in other countries. This amount of support needs to be paid for, and part of that is funded by helping to keep industry ticking along. A far better comparison would be to countries like Sweden and Holland. Both these countries, along with the U.K., initially embarked upon the herd immunity strategy whereby they had few formal rules and relied upon people to follow guidelines thinking it would spread through the population and slow down. This was a deliberate strategy. It was a mistake only with hindsight. It wasn’t as a result of a series of errors or poor planning. It was a deliberate and calculated risk strategy which proved, in hindsight to be a wrong. 
 

Having seen the effects of this, the U.K. and eventually Holland and later Sweden then moved to a stricter lockdown strategy to contain it, releasing the lockdowns as and when case rates and critically, hospital admissions were manageable. This was never an attempt to keep Covid as close to zero as possible. That was never the aim by countries like the U.K. To have zero would not have been seen a success while shelling out billions of pounds to keep the country locked down. The U.K. deliberately controlled case numbers so it’s health service could cope, while aggressively pursuing a vaccination policy that is now allowing the country to open up. Meanwhile countries like Thailand and Australia are still locked down and the economic damage to people will prove to be far more damaging to society than the U.K. approach. Not good for the 130,000 who have died, but that is what governments do. They balance risk and reward. We need another couple of years before we can truly say who got the balance right and what I’m sure that will show is that neither the U.K. nor Thailand will be up there in the top 10. The U.K. actually ended up with one of the worst (short term) hits to its GDP and one of the highest fatality rates.  It will be places like Taiwan and South Korea that got it right. Some of that is perhaps due to more recent experience of dealing with SARS. In the final analysis I think history will show that those developed economies who also kept infection rates low, also came out well economically  

To judge “success” of handling this virus I think you need a complex formula of comparing: Deaths, Suicide rates,  initial economic loss. Long term economic loss, economic support to people. Loss of social freedoms, population, demographics, Political structures,  Social compliance of laws.  And this is why the debate will rage on. It has never been a zero sum game. 

Now I do find myself in disagreement with you. Had there been stricter border controls, the need for the lockdown and it's economic consequences would have been far lighter. S. Korea, which considering it'd border with the north, can almost be described as an Island, and for many months the only lockdown was places of entertainment and the economic impact was very limited. NZ: Similar SK thought they'd beaten it, reopened the entertainment sector and one person who was infected visited three discos in a night, infected about 20 others and the problem has never been under control since.  NZ had eradicated it. They then allowed two visitors from the UK in to visit a sick relative, and the infections restarted, and have not gone away. Regardless, the NZ lockdown was again far gentler than in the UK. Both cases go to my point how other islands used border controls to stifle the virus. That's why NZ and SK  have done better economically throughout this while having death of rate of 5 and 40 per mill respectively compared to the UK of 1880. And let's not forget how severely SK were initially hit by this.

The economic argument does not carry much weight with me. We had to do this because we failed to control our borders. First case, a Brit returning from a ski trip to Italy when the figures from there were already causing alarm. Within days, two Chinese students from Wuhan of all places, were allowed to enter the country without screening, and started a cluster in York. We knew that this thing was going to be brought in by travellers, but even when people were arriving from high risk areas, we made no attempt to screen them. We didn't even introduce border controls until July, and even those have shown clear signs of lack of joined-up thinking. I recall seeing Transport Sec, Shaps  in April last year where he was asked why there were no border controls. His reply was, "Because the virus is already here". A few days ago, I saw him in the Commons, state that we now had amongst the most stringent border controls on the planet. Nothing like shutting the stable door after the stable has been burnt to the ground don't you think? 

Regarding NL and Sweden, in considering there stats, you have to factor in that they are both part of Schengen and it's taken the EU a long time to modify those rules. Regardless, on June 30th, the UK had more infections than the UK combined, and the EU's population exceeds the UK by about 6.5X.

As far as your parameters go in trying to make comparisons, all that I personally care about is the death rate. Businesses may fold, but if there is demand, they will reopen. People may lose their jobs, but most will be re-employed. But once your dead, there is no recovery. But if like SK and NZ, we had taken advantage of our isolation from infectious borders, do you think the economic impact would have been as harsh as it has become? 

I suspect that you and I are going to take a different view of how well the UK has handled this. But I leave you with this thought: There are numerous island nations in the world with a population of over 1 mill who have border controls. How could the UK, as a single nation island have death toll per capita 6X the rate of the next worst island that fits into that category, Cyprus. And BTW, Cyprus, has tested at about 2x the rate of the UK.

[Does]

7 hours ago, BeerIsLife said:

Young children not only are at low risk for developing COVID-19 but also don’t play a significant role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 while attending school, finds a study recently publishedTrusted Source in the Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA).

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/study-finds-kids-under-10-unlikely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-school

This is from the US CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html

COVID-19 among children and adolescents

Children and adolescents can be infected with SARS-CoV-2, can get sick with COVID-19, and can spread the virus to others.^9-15  In the United States through March 2021, the estimated cumulative rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 symptomatic illness in children ages 5-17 years were comparable to infection and symptomatic illness rates in adults ages 18-49 and higher than rates in adults ages 50 and older.¹⁶  Estimated cumulative rates of infection and symptomatic illness in children ages 0-4 years are roughly half of those in children ages 5-17 years, but are comparable to those in adults ages 65 years or older.  These cumulative rates were estimated from CDC models that account for under-detection among reported cases.¹⁷

Several studies conducted early during the COVID-19 pandemic suggested that the incidence rate among children and adolescents was lower than among adults.^{9, 10, 18-23}  However, the lower incidence rates may have been due in part to children, when compared to adults, having fewer opportunities for exposure (due to school, daycare, and activity closures) and a lower probability of being tested.¹⁷  Studies that have systematically tested children and adolescents, irrespective of symptoms, for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (using antigen or RT-PCR assays) or prior infection (through antibody testing) have found their rates of infection can be comparable, and in some settings higher, than in adults.^{12, 15, 24-29}

 

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

Just to comment on a particular thing you said. I understand the overall idea of locking down an island and carefully checking people who enter. But Phuket doesn’t have hundreds of thousands of nationals who are out of the country with passports granting them legal free access to the U.K. visiting families or on business in India, Pakistan, Nigeria, the U.S, Spain etc etc. Phuket doesn’t have 68 million people who need feeding with massive imports via boat and tunnel from the mainland.  Phuket is a tiny island in a country. Your analogy works to a point. But It would be fairer to compare the Isle of Wight with Phuket. 
 

But let’s be clear, I’m not saying the U.K. got it right. I returned to the U.K. in May last year and was appalled at how I just got off the flight from Bangkok and strolled in. Not so much as a temperature check!
Overall, I’d give the U.K. 1 out of 10 for initial response. 7/10 for helping people financially and 10/10 for its vaccine strategy. Total 17/30

I’d give Thailand 8/10 for initial response 1/10 for helping people financially (by the way they can afford it!), and 1/10 for its vaccine strategy. Total 10/30

You make a fair point about the comparison of Phuket and the UK. But my point is that regardless of all the other factors you list, it seems that the Phuket Provincial gov, is determined to screen everyone that enters the island Based on the news story which gave rise to this thread, it appears to be working because they detected two Farangs who entered by land yesterday. Not sure how much damage they will have done, but it appears that they were isolated within 24 hours. 

17 months on and the UK has nothing like that. 

Regarding your return to the UK, I had a similar experience on my return from TH last year a few weeks prior to yours. I was able to clear border controls at T3, and walk across to T2 without any hindrance. This was at a time when there were very few flights arriving and it was possible to screen if they were of a mind to with limited disruption. Again, at T2, no pre-flight checks. 

Anyway, it's been an interesting convo. We are unlikely to agree but I thank you anyway.

[Does]

7 hours ago, BeerIsLife said:

Young children not only are at low risk for developing COVID-19 but also don’t play a significant role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 while attending school, finds a study recently publishedTrusted Source in the Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA).

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/study-finds-kids-under-10-unlikely-to-spread-coronavirus-at-school

This is from the US CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html

COVID-19 among children and adolescents

Children and adolescents can be infected with SARS-CoV-2, can get sick with COVID-19, and can spread the virus to others.^9-15  In the United States through March 2021, the estimated cumulative rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 symptomatic illness in children ages 5-17 years were comparable to infection and symptomatic illness rates in adults ages 18-49 and higher than rates in adults ages 50 and older.¹⁶  Estimated cumulative rates of infection and symptomatic illness in children ages 0-4 years are roughly half of those in children ages 5-17 years, but are comparable to those in adults ages 65 years or older.  These cumulative rates were estimated from CDC models that account for under-detection among reported cases.¹⁷

Several studies conducted early during the COVID-19 pandemic suggested that the incidence rate among children and adolescents was lower than among adults.^{9, 10, 18-23}  However, the lower incidence rates may have been due in part to children, when compared to adults, having fewer opportunities for exposure (due to school, daycare, and activity closures) and a lower probability of being tested.¹⁷  Studies that have systematically tested children and adolescents, irrespective of symptoms, for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection (using antigen or RT-PCR assays) or prior infection (through antibody testing) have found their rates of infection can be comparable, and in some settings higher, than in adults.^{12, 15, 24-29}

 

[B.S]

The sandbox idea is a good idea but at the same time not such a good idea because of certain risk factors that have already shown up. These factors affect those traveling into Phuket as also the local population.

I personally think the idea of quarantine on arrival in a ASQ hotel is the better Garantie against a possible Covid-19 infection coming into the country of Thailand or any country for that matter. It also saves any hassle for the incoming foreign as they have already accepted the idea of quarantine.

I realize it’s not for everyone but we must get used to the idea that the vaccination of people must reach a certain % of population to avoid serious Covid illness to anyone person local or foreign. This applies to every country in our world.

So if vaccination % is low then quarantine is the only answer really to enter a country.

If one is fully vaccinated then maybe one can get out quarantine early after a couple of negative tests. This must depend on the discretion of country being visited.

Whatever.   Simple rules like masks, hygiene and a certain discretion on social distance should always be practiced in any country. I respect your health as you respect my health by simply carrying out three simple ideas.

[Soidog]

18 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Now I do find myself in disagreement with you. Had there been stricter border controls, the need for the lockdown and it's economic consequences would have been far lighter. S. Korea, which considering it'd border with the north, can almost be described as an Island, and for many months the only lockdown was places of entertainment and the economic impact was very limited. NZ: Similar SK thought they'd beaten it, reopened the entertainment sector and one person who was infected visited three discos in a night, infected about 20 others and the problem has never been under control since.  NZ had eradicated it. They then allowed two visitors from the UK in to visit a sick relative, and the infections restarted, and have not gone away. Regardless, the NZ lockdown was again far gentler than in the UK. Both cases go to my point how other islands used border controls to stifle the virus. That's why NZ and SK  have done better economically throughout this while having death of rate of 5 and 40 per mill respectively compared to the UK of 1880. And let's not forget how severely SK were initially hit by this.

The economic argument does not carry much weight with me. We had to do this because we failed to control our borders. First case, a Brit returning from a ski trip to Italy when the figures from there were already causing alarm. Within days, two Chinese students from Wuhan of all places, were allowed to enter the country without screening, and started a cluster in York. We knew that this thing was going to be brought in by travellers, but even when people were arriving from high risk areas, we made no attempt to screen them. We didn't even introduce border controls until July, and even those have shown clear signs of lack of joined-up thinking. I recall seeing Transport Sec, Shaps  in April last year where he was asked why there were no border controls. His reply was, "Because the virus is already here". A few days ago, I saw him in the Commons, state that we now had amongst the most stringent border controls on the planet. Nothing like shutting the stable door after the stable has been burnt to the ground don't you think? 

Regarding NL and Sweden, in considering there stats, you have to factor in that they are both part of Schengen and it's taken the EU a long time to modify those rules. Regardless, on June 30th, the UK had more infections than the UK combined, and the EU's population exceeds the UK by about 6.5X.

As far as your parameters go in trying to make comparisons, all that I personally care about is the death rate. Businesses may fold, but if there is demand, they will reopen. People may lose their jobs, but most will be re-employed. But once your dead, there is no recovery. But if like SK and NZ, we had taken advantage of our isolation from infectious borders, do you think the economic impact would have been as harsh as it has become? 

I suspect that you and I are going to take a different view of how well the UK has handled this. But I leave you with this thought: There are numerous island nations in the world with a population of over 1 mill who have border controls. How could the UK, as a single nation island have death toll per capita 6X the rate of the next worst island that fits into that category, Cyprus. And BTW, Cyprus, has tested at about 2x the rate of the UK.

That’s fine, but you aren’t disagreeing with me as I never defended what the U.K. government did in any of this. I’m simply pointing out that not to lockdown wasn’t a “mistake” it was a deliberate act. It has proven to be a mistake but at the time they did it as a deliberate strategy. 
 

As for the economic and population size of Cyprus and the comparison you draw with the U.K., it clearly doesn’t compare. 
 

As for your statement about the only thing that matters to you is the number of deaths, then again, that’s fine and nothing wrong with that. However, as Thailand is also now seeing, economic failure is also a factor when it comes to this pandemic. In the U.K. business May fold and reopen and in the meantime people will be compensated and a major social safety net exists for health care and other needs such as food. In Thailand that’s doesn’t happen and people run up massive financial debts that need to be repaid. Sometimes that debt burden becomes too much and people end their life. That is also a consequential death toll. 
 

These are facts. They are not my opinions and hence we are not in disagreement. We just have a different view on what is most important when dealing with a pandemic. Ideally you have zero deaths and zero impact to your economy. At the same time you develop vaccines and the whole world gets vaccinated within a few months. Unfortunately, life ain’t like that …

[vlad]

4 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

Regardless of the test rates, and even if your estimates are correct, the figure from the UK, the 6th richest country on the planet are a disgrace when you compare their resources to that of TH.

There will eventually be a public enquiry into this, and if the epidemiologists are set to work, they will probably find that a huge number of "patient zeroes" for the Delta variant flew in from India with negative PCR tests and were never investigated. I'd be very interested  to know, how many of those who took the test, were denied boarding because they did not have a negative test? I'd say, there is a very good chance that many of these people never even took the test, but got the cert anyway.

I can't say it often enough: The UK and England before that, has an 800 year history of hearing of foreign plagues which eventually end up killing many of the citizenry. Sir John Snow invented the science of epidemiology in 1854, so we knew how disease was spread. We knew as soon as we saw the rate at which this virus was being spread, that it was only a matter of time before it would be brought in by foreign travel and we initially did nothing with our borders for 6 months even though we were a self-contained island. We also knew about the rampant corruption in India, yet nobody sought to question any of these PCY+R tests. These were people who not unnaturally, did not want to spend £2500 on a two week stay in a lockdown hotel, and or, possibly lose their jobs because they were unavailable for work. Within weeks, Delta was the dominant variant. It beggars belief, that none of these PCR tests were ever challenged.

To give you some idea of the virtually total incompetence of the UK gov in this matter, recently, they dedicated a terminal at LHR to flights arriving from high risk countries, while still allowing flights from lower risk countries to use the same terminal. The high risk passengers were funnelled down one side of a rope barrier, while the low risk were on the other side. I am sure we all know how effective ropes are at preventing the spread of disease.

Yes! Undoubtedly TH has made mistakes and their infection rate MAY truly be as bad as the UK right now.  But it never had the advantages of the UK in terms of being a relatively extremely wealthy island. All things considered, TH has done a great job until recently, and what they need now need to do, is to dump every bottle of Sinovax in the Kwai and Mekong rivers and start again.

 

8 minutes ago, Soidog said:

That’s fine, but you aren’t disagreeing with me as I never defended what the U.K. government did in any of this. I’m simply pointing out that not to lockdown wasn’t a “mistake” it was a deliberate act. It has proven to be a mistake but at the time they did it as a deliberate strategy. 
 

As for the economic and population size of Cyprus and the comparison you draw with the U.K., it clearly doesn’t compare. 
 

As for your statement about the only thing that matters to you is the number of deaths, then again, that’s fine and nothing wrong with that. However, as Thailand is also now seeing, economic failure is also a factor when it comes to this pandemic. In the U.K. business May fold and reopen and in the meantime people will be compensated and a major social safety net exists for health care and other needs such as food. In Thailand that’s doesn’t happen and people run up massive financial debts that need to be repaid. Sometimes that debt burden becomes too much and people end their life. That is also a consequential death toll. 
 

These are facts. They are not my opinions and hence we are not in disagreement. We just have a different view on what is most important when dealing with a pandemic. Ideally you have zero deaths and zero impact to your economy. At the same time you develop vaccines and the whole world gets vaccinated within a few months. Unfortunately, life ain’t like that …

Bit of an Anti Brit post that JohninDublin. Who was the first to produce a vaccine ? who was the 1st to get it an an Arm ? who was the first to inoculate nearly its entire population ?. One of Britain's worst Pandemic first noted in 13th century a second wave killed millions from 1665 spread from parish to parish from infected rats and Fleas that carried the Bacillus virus. It was not brought from Ships bringing cargo in from Europe. It was finally discovered that Skin lice was the main culprit in the late 1800's. 

[Stonker]

8 hours ago, BlueSphinx said:

Trying to find that article you reference, but cannot find it even when using key-words like Covid / Science / Feb 15 / Stockholm University.  Please do provide a link, so that I can check for myself.

'In God we trust, all others must bring data'

Sorry, I'm on my smallest smartphone so I can't do links at the moment.

 

A search for  sweden school teacher infections covid brings it up for me on the second link, though.

[Soidog]

One of the things that surprises me most about this pandemic, is the people who want the government in the U.K. and other liberal democracies to have introduced hard lockdowns. Total restriction of movement. Forced closures of business. People not allowed out of their homes or meet family etc etc. The rest of the time, they criticise the same governments for wanting ID cards, surveillance cameras and controlling people’s right to march wherever they want. They want liberal democracies enshrined in law. And then want those same laws ripped up and dictatorship installed overnight when things get tough. Who would want to be a politician? 

[Stonker]

50 minutes ago, Soidog said:

These are facts.  They are not my opinions ...

I've tried to avoid commenting on your posts, but NO, they're NOT "facts" but they're you're opinion.

 

There's no credible evidence, for example, that the failure to lockdown early was a deliberate balance between economic damage and deaths or just a stuff up because Boris wanted a day at the races.

 

 

[JohninDublin]

39 minutes ago, Soidog said:

That’s fine, but you aren’t disagreeing with me as I never defended what the U.K. government did in any of this. I’m simply pointing out that not to lockdown wasn’t a “mistake” it was a deliberate act. It has proven to be a mistake but at the time they did it as a deliberate strategy. 
 

As for the economic and population size of Cyprus and the comparison you draw with the U.K., it clearly doesn’t compare. 
 

As for your statement about the only thing that matters to you is the number of deaths, then again, that’s fine and nothing wrong with that. However, as Thailand is also now seeing, economic failure is also a factor when it comes to this pandemic. In the U.K. business May fold and reopen and in the meantime people will be compensated and a major social safety net exists for health care and other needs such as food. In Thailand that’s doesn’t happen and people run up massive financial debts that need to be repaid. Sometimes that debt burden becomes too much and people end their life. That is also a consequential death toll. 
 

These are facts. They are not my opinions and hence we are not in disagreement. We just have a different view on what is most important when dealing with a pandemic. Ideally you have zero deaths and zero impact to your economy. At the same time you develop vaccines and the whole world gets vaccinated within a few months. Unfortunately, life ain’t like that …

I didn't cherry-pick to further my point. I chose them because they were the second worst in that category. If you want to eliminate Cyprus on Economic grounds, then they UK figure is even more horrendous. 

I could have chosen among others, Japan. NZ, Oz, or Singapore who are relatively wealthy compared with the UK. That would have made the UK correspondingly, 16x, 376x, 54x or 313x worse. If anything, Cyprus was a far better candidate to reduce the embarrassment of the UK. Do you still want to exclude them?

I agree with you that the UK made the wrong decision, but should we really be surprised at that? Bojo is a populist and will do what he thinks will make him most popular, especially if he is relying on donations from business. In addition, he surrounds himself with a cabinet of his supporters. The problem with populists is that they are good at getting elected, but crap at running countries. Their agenda once elected,  is to put their own self-interest and staying in power. Look at the countries with the highest death tolls, and 6 of the 7 If you include Trump, are run by populists. With the exception of the vax roll out, there is no metric I can see that tells me, the UK did a good job.

[Soidog]

9 minutes ago, Stonker said:

I've tried to avoid commenting on your posts, but NO, they're NOT "facts" but they're you're opinion.

There's no credible evidence, for example, that the failure to lockdown early was a deliberate balance between economic damage and deaths or just a stuff up because Boris wanted a day at the races.

Not true. This has been confirmed and even Boris Johnston himself somewhat reluctantly confirmed this was the case. The strategy at the start was to assume lower infections leading to hospitalisation and allow herd immunity to take place. A fact. Oh hold on, where’s my formatting keys…… NO, A FACT. 

Do you research on Google

[Soidog]

8 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I didn't cherry-pick to further my point. I chose them because they were the second worst in that category. If you want to eliminate Cyprus on Economic grounds, then they UK figure is even more horrendous. 

I could have chosen among others, Japan. NZ, Oz, or Singapore who are relatively wealthy compared with the UK. That would have made the UK correspondingly, 16x, 376x, 54x or 313x worse. If anything, Cyprus was a far better candidate to reduce the embarrassment of the UK. Do you still want to exclude them?

I agree with you that the UK made the wrong decision, but should we really be surprised at that? Bojo is a populist and will do what he thinks will make him most popular, especially if he is relying on donations from business. In addition, he surrounds himself with a cabinet of his supporters. The problem with populists is that they are good at getting elected, but crap at running countries. Their agenda once elected,  is to put their own self-interest and staying in power. Look at the countries with the highest death tolls, and 6 of the 7 If you include Trump, are run by populists. With the exception of the vax roll out, there is no metric I can see that tells me, the UK did a good job.

Boris Johnston is a politician working within a democracy. His only way to survive is to appeal to the majority of the people most of the time in order to get re-elected. Principles and logic are for the opposition parties. Fortunately for the U.K. Boris can’t hold on to power with the help of the Army. I don’t know many politicians who remained in power by being unpopular with the voting majority. 

[Stonker]

48 minutes ago, vlad said:

Bit of an Anti Brit post that JohninDublin. Who was the first to produce a vaccine ? who was the 1st to get it an an Arm ? who was the first to inoculate nearly its entire population ?

Not sure what point you're trying to make there, @vlad.

 

Who was the first to produce a vaccine ?

Moderna.

 

Who was the 1st to get it an an Arm ?

Jennifer Haller, a Canadian, with Moderna on 17 March 2020 in Seattle.

 

Who was the first to inoculate nearly its entire population ? 

Israel, with Pfizer.