News Forum - Thailand backs ‘One China’ policy amid US Taiwan PR disaster

[NorskTiger]

14 hours ago, EdwardV said:

You base this on what? Considering the US also pretends to abide by the one China policy I don’t see your point. 

US PRETENDS TO is exactly the point. 

      When Princess Pelosi is sent there by the DS and MIC to prech about "democracy" it is like spitting in the eye of that policy. 

     China does not have the liberal democracy model and it is unlikely they will in future as well, unless the CIA and usual suspects should succeed in a large covert  and "spontaneous" color revolution. I think nobody thinks that is any more likely to happen in China than Russia. 

   

[NorskTiger]

14 hours ago, dmacarelli said:

China has never forgiven the Taiwanese for breaking away from a morally doomed, new republic. Why would they want to have any real connection to the heinous CCP? 

    China is not the CCP. China is an old entity that goes thousands of years back in time. Whether or not the CCP is "heinous" or have not "forgiven" Taiwan is irrelevant. Taiwan is set to be returing to CHina and fully integrating just like HK has recently done. It is a great pipe dream of the West to believe this can be stopped. 

[dmacarelli]

On 8/7/2022 at 10:31 PM, NorskTiger said:

    China is not the CCP. China is an old entity that goes thousands of years back in time. Whether or not the CCP is "heinous" or have not "forgiven" Taiwan is irrelevant. Taiwan is set to be returing to CHina and fully integrating just like HK has recently done. It is a great pipe dream of the West to believe this can be stopped. 

Anything can happen. It is a possibility that China will continue it's ascent, unabated. It is also possible the CCP could collapse. Between the massive debt, the ridiculous covid related shutdowns, and the draconian style of rule, there is alot of internal dissent. What will happen is anyone's guess. 

To just assume a Chinese takeover of Taiwan is not something I would wager on. Hong Kong was legally on a path to revert to Chinese rule. China broke their agreement of course, on their promise to allow some semblance of democracy, as they cannot help themselves. Taiwan is something entirely different. It is likely WWIII would start, before it was handed back to the CCP creeps. 

[EdwardV]

On 8/7/2022 at 10:29 PM, NorskTiger said:

US PRETENDS TO is exactly the point. 

      When Princess Pelosi is sent there by the DS and MIC to prech about "democracy" it is like spitting in the eye of that policy. 

Besides the fact you never answered my question. I wrote "pretends" on purpose, since both China and the US know that's exactly what's happening. Since that's the case, what difference did it make that Pelosi showed up? She's not the first speaker of the house to visit Taiwan. China is making this into a bid deal for internal reasons. They have spent so much time and effort in stoking nationalism with their wolf warrior tactics, they had to blow this up. They have to feed that dragon, or it will turn and eat them.

China needs to be careful as this can only end badly for them if it goes sideways.  Oh and if you think Pelosi was sent anywhere, you don't know that old witch. No one tells her what to do. 

 

[garyknrd]

One good thing is now the US and Taiwans allies knows exactly what to plan for. Short of a mushroom cloud... 

If I was going to invade a country the last thing I would want to do is show exactly how I was going to do it... 

Edited August 10, 2022 by garyknrd

[NorskTiger]

China will not take the bait from murica. It is not in their interest to get entangled into a war with USA. Would Beijing "win"? Certainly. The supply lines alone for USA are horrendous. The hypersonic missiles and the Chinese determination in this case will do the rest.

      However, Taiwan is still on the path to reunification. The UN says so, USA says so and frankly most countries in the world says so. 

   The funnny thing is this, it was USA-led intiative who kicked Taiwan out of the UN for not being a country.  

     Pelosi was likely sent by the DeepState to stir up some trouble, or at least test the sensitivity and resolve of China. I think the Chinese response was as expected. Not any invasion, but economic screws tightening and war games from now until reunification. 

       

   

[NorskTiger]

On 8/9/2022 at 10:04 PM, EdwardV said:

Besides the fact you never answered my question. I wrote "pretends" on purpose, since both China and the US know that's exactly what's happening. Since that's the case, what difference did it make that Pelosi showed up? She's not the first speaker of the house to visit Taiwan. China is making this into a bid deal for internal reasons. They have spent so much time and effort in stoking nationalism with their wolf warrior tactics, they had to blow this up. They have to feed that dragon, or it will turn and eat them.

China needs to be careful as this can only end badly for them if it goes sideways.  Oh and if you think Pelosi was sent anywhere, you don't know that old witch. No one tells her what to do. 

   Pelosi may be "old witch", but she belongs to the US state apparatus. She is a chief member of on of the teams of the uniparty, so there is nothing individual about her visit. Biden's feeble nonchalance is likely also a stage play. To show he is concerned and does not like it, but at the same time pretending to support "her right" to do it.  

        The hegemon has some fight left in it, but it is increasingy tough to move the bloated body too far.  No crossfit here. 

[EdwardV]

2 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

However, Taiwan is still on the path to reunification. The UN says so, USA says so and frankly most countries in the world says so. 

Pretty sure none of those entities get a vote on the matter. Too bad Taiwan wants nothing to do with mainland China. 

3 minutes ago, NorskTiger said:

Would Beijing "win"? Certainly.

There is an actual fact for you. China said they would attack if Pelosi visited, nothing happen. Not as she flew in, not while she was there, and not as she left. Nothing. Poor babies call they could do is cry and complain. Afterward the blew up some fish. Talk about a loss of face. Paper tiger. 

[Khunmark]

As far as I can tell in terms of Chinese/Taiwanese relations nothing has changed in the past 30 years. Both agree on a one China policy, however what a One China entails is in dispute. What has changed is the ratcheting up of antagonism on the part of the U.S. Starting with Trump in 2017. When his administration thought they could use the one China policy as a leveraging tool for a favourable trade agreement, much to the Chagrin of the Taiwanese administration.

If nothing else China is predictable in its reaction to foreign interference on the matter. And with this in mind the U.S has embarked on a campaign to  provoke China with the express purpose of characterising China as a bully to its (China’s) trading partners and potential trading partners. China is forecast to become the largest economy in the world in the next 20 years and the U.S is hellbent on preventing this from happening.

[dmacarelli]

On 8/6/2022 at 2:11 AM, stevenkongju said:

What "smacks of arraogance and ignorance" is to somehow believe that the actions of the US today are even close to the level of malevolance that the CCCP actions are. The current genocide of the Uyghers for a start. How about the continued destruction of the Tibeten culture? The persecution of Falun Gong members? The current slave labor of political prisoners ain't so nice. Squashing democracy in Hong Kong, after signing a treaty promising that the city would remain free for 50 years is another strike. And do you wanna talk getting involved in affairs of other countries? How about the wholesale theft of technologies and intellectual property? We also have the Belt and Road Initiative that takes advantage of poor countries desperation by building infrastructure and then basically changing usury type repayments.

We could go on and talk about the surveillance state that is the PRC, the lack of freedom of speech, association, religion, press et al. But I suppose that would just be Western Arrogance. I am sure the average Chinese citizen wants none of these freedoms.

Has the US been perfect? Nope. Is it perfect now? Nope, again. But US citizens are allowed to criticize their leaders, talk about the stain that was chattel slavery, argue about the past and even present treatment of native Americans and protest any time they believe their government has failed them or the world.

I tried not to answer the above rediculous post, but sometimes we need to call out BS.

Thank you. Most seem to be quite a bit naive as to just what the CCP are all about. There is not a belevolent bone in a single bone of any of the members. Xi is the worst. Be scared of them. Be very scared. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by dmacarelli

[NorskTiger]

This article from The Diplomat is trying to assess who in Asia is in support of USA and who si in support of China. 

    It seems to fall much as expected. USA is being supported by Australia, Japan New Zealand and Taiwan government, with India and Vietnam (times have changed) close in tow. 

    India is understandable from the situation of the India-China antagonism; while one would think VIetnam took a more neutral stance, but heavy lobbying and business interests have probably tipped the scale. 

    On the other side is Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Nepal (concerned of ticking off China)?, North Korea, Pakistan (doing the opposite of what India does) and Russia with the -stans (Understandably). 

     What is interesting is how most of the Pacific-Asia is staying neutral, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are so far not joing any side. Thailand and Bangladesh is also uncommitted. Especially the Philippines is interesting as it is often described as a staunch US vasall.

    Singapore is being described as having a pro-US stance here, but I am not sure how this is assessedand statements from SIngapore could be just as well be interpreted as being a demand for de-escalation, which goes to both USA and China. Now, sitting on one of the most (if not THE most) vital shipping lane in the world with more than 40% of Chinas oil going through the Malakka strait, they would surely be a focal point in any theoretical conflict. 

     Finally, Mongolia and South Korea has opted for a "no comment" situation. In SK's situation it is probably the only thing they can do in order not to tick off neither China nor USA, being beholden to both in some way. 

   Which Asian Countries Support China in the Taiwan Strait Crisis – and Which Don’t? – The Diplomat

[NorskTiger]

On 8/11/2022 at 11:22 PM, EdwardV said:

Pretty sure none of those entities get a vote on the matter. Too bad Taiwan wants nothing to do with mainland China. 

There is an actual fact for you. China said they would attack if Pelosi visited, nothing happen. Not as she flew in, not while she was there, and not as she left. Nothing. Poor babies call they could do is cry and complain. Afterward the blew up some fish. Talk about a loss of face. Paper tiger. 

China has not said "they will attack". Furthermore, China is not acting on impulse as is the typical US policy with regards to power projection. On the contrary, they just finished an expanded exercise which pretty much was a dry run on how to fully blockade and control Taiwan. China is not so stupid to be goaded into a fight with USA, for the reason that it would be disastrous for the ongoing Chinese growth and prosperity. USA OTOH, would probably (at some level) welcome a fight with China so far removed from home (as is the normal USA warfare). 

      The US DeepState did a major blunder by trying to posture this as some innocent 80-year old grandmother and WOMAN merely taking a trip and "she is free to make her own decisions". China is not buying any wo-ke PCBS and neither will they be distracted by rhetoric or taunts. 

      I still do not think there is any point in taking militarily what will come running to them within some years. USA is massively losing economic and influential hold in the entire world while China is firmly embedded as the dominant power in East Asia.  Once a grand bargain between China and India is brokered by Russian diplomacy, it is a total game over for the hegemon in the area. 

[NorskTiger]

On 8/11/2022 at 11:22 PM, EdwardV said:

Pretty sure none of those entities get a vote on the matter. Too bad Taiwan wants nothing to do with mainland China. 

There is an actual fact for you. China said they would attack if Pelosi visited, nothing happen. Not as she flew in, not while she was there, and not as she left. Nothing. Poor babies call they could do is cry and complain. Afterward the blew up some fish. Talk about a loss of face. Paper tiger. 

         If the above highlighted is correct, why has Taiwan not made a declaration of independence and submitted it to a vote in the United nation? 

         Also, there are many Taiwanese who do not think independence declaration is very wise move. 

 

    Time is working for reunification. 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

China has not said "they will attack".

That's not correct and never really has been either. Regardless the first "White Paper" on Taiwan under Pooh says this: 

 

A White Paper which was released by the Chinese Communist Party on the Taiwan issue read that in order to reunify the island nation into the mainland, Beijing will use force and will turn towards "armed re-unification". This comes as China released a white paper titled "The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era" on Wednesday, reiterating its claims on the self-ruled island with over 22 million people, Policy Research Group (POREG) reported. New White Paper claimed at the outset that the CCP "strives for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and efforts", but immediately declared that non-peaceful means will be the last choice under last resort". It also threatened to "not promise to renounce the use of force".

In addition: 

In earlier white papers CCP had promised that "the central government will not send troops and administrative personnel to Taiwan." But in the latest version, that signature promise to ensure Taiwan's high degree of autonomy has disappeared entirely.

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272653227/china-to-pull-off-armed-re-unification-of-taiwan-into-mainland-ccp-white-paper

Clearly China renounces their earlier commitment to not use force, just as they now acknowledge the fact they will be running the island if they every do get control. Of course the citizens of Taiwan always knew this and why they don't want anything to do with the mainland CCP. They saw what the broken promises with Hong Kong lead to. 

 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

         If the above highlighted is correct, why has Taiwan not made a declaration of independence and submitted it to a vote in the United nation? 

         Also, there are many Taiwanese who do not think independence declaration is very wise move. 

    Time is working for reunification. 

Why? Because there is no reason to poke the bear (or dragon in this case) when you are already independent. 

Many? I think that was prior to HK, since then everything has changed: 

 The Taiwan public's declining desire for political union with China fell further to a near-record low in the first half of 2022, the island's leading pollster said on Tuesday.

In a biannual update to its surveys on core political attitudes in Taiwan, National Chengchi University's Election Study Center (ESC) found only 1.3 percent of respondents wanted unification with mainland China "as soon as possible,"

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-china-politics-identity-independence-unification-public-opinion-polling-1724546

Time is not on the CCPs side. With a failing economy, and it's continued disconnection from what's left of the global economy. Add in the fastest collapsing demography in the world, and all Taiwan has to do is wait out the mainland's rapidly approaching demise. As long as China keeps treating HK as a chew toy, the one country/two systems sale pitch will find no buyers in Taiwan. 

 

 

A US congressional delegation led by Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ed Markey has arrived in Taipei on an unannounced two-day visit, the second US congressional delegation to Taiwan this month. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi drew the ire of China when she became the first US speaker to visit in 25 years at a time when Washington-Beijing relations have been especially tense. The new five-member delegation is visiting the self-governing island in an effort to “reaffirm the United States’ support for Taiwan” and “will encourage stability and peace across the Taiwan Strait,” a spokesperson for Markey said in a statement.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/14/politics/congressional-delegation-taiwan/index.html

Where is all the wolf warrior talk now? China is a paper dragon and everyone knows it. 

 

 

 

[NorskTiger]

First of all, it is explicitly clear that force is a LAST resort. Not unlike what many other powers say about most contentious issues. 

   a poll is a poll. And there will be many more. Changes nothing. Taiwan IS a part of China. I detached part, but nothing different than other post-colonial entities.  What would the results of such a "poll" be if there was no external support? In any case, it is meaningless. 

    China may have challenging demographics indeed, but at present it is not an issue and the "failling economy" can hardly be described as anything close to as challenged as their major adversary. Where CHina has heavily invested in long-lasting infrastructure, the other one has invested in global militarization that is way overstretched and unable to stay afloat.  The talk about encouraging "peace and stability accross the Taiwan strait" is more meaningless and actually insulting rhetoric. It is the US presence in the area under "freedom of navigation" phony rhetoric that has made China need to project more military power. This is bound to continue. AMerikans do not understand the Chinese resolve here. To say it as such: There is a much stronger willingness to fight over Taiwan in China than in USA.  A two-front proxy war may be the desire of USA; but China can play that game well as well. It is more likely to continue as an economic proxy-war, that will continue to extend into the US mainland itself. 

  

   The ongoing ploy by USA to dillute the One-China policy with a more advanced strategic ambiguity will also help to harden the resolve of Beijing. 

    Chinese people do not let themselves get goaded into cheap insults of "paper tiger" from what they perceive as a boorish, bloated and extremely bad case of "ugly Amerikan". 

           

     Finally, neither USA nor China will benefit from a war. However, China will not back down here. I am not convinced the same applies to USA. 

     

 

[Tim_Melb]

On 8/5/2022 at 6:12 PM, Khunwilko said:

no, they support autonomy - get your facts straight.

No they support Taiwanese independence. The Taiwanese chose to maintain the position of wanting reunification under a democratically elected government a position which I believe most Taiwanese would still prefer. However they will not agree to be ruled by the CCP government under any circumstances. If they chose to make an application for membership of the UN after having a referendum on the question of independence then the US would undoubtedly support it. The only reason that has not happened so far is the now pretty much defunct hope that China would throw of the mantle of the CCP and that having such a referendum would no doubt provoke unwanted aggressive action by the CCP. 

[Tim_Melb]

On 8/5/2022 at 6:15 PM, Khunwilko said:

do you think the US would accept a similar situation if Chinese built bases like this around the States?

What a joke! At least three quarters of these so called bases do not exist or are not bases for the US military. The US has no bases in the Philippines, no bases in Thailand, no bases in Afghanistan, only one base in Australia. Most of your so called bases are historical locations that have not existed for 20 to 40 years or more. I'm surprised you haven't included US bases in Australia that only existed before n WWII 

[NorskTiger]

If the US would support an pplication of the membership to the UN this would undoubtly be a clear violation of their support of the One-China policy. However, I know that many amerikan politiciains probably see this as the way forwards. As always, they say one thing, while working towards the opposite goal. 

     Reunification under a "democratically elected government" is not a clause I am aware of sits within the One-China policy, so whether or not this is what Taiwanese "want" is pretty much irrelevant. 

   Then it comes to the issue of a UN vote on the subject itself. It may become an ultimate yardstick of how much political influence and how much popular support USA has lost among the world community. Besides the USA and it's regular flock of Western vassals, it is very uncertian whether or not there would be a majority vote for such a move. They would obviously only make such a move when they knew there was a clear majority in favor, which would entail lots of heavy diplomacy way in advance. 

    Meanwhile, China keeps extending it's soft power within entire Asia, Afrika and Eurasian continent. This is garnering lots of support and most ost-colonial entities would likely support them ina stand against the USA's desperate clinging to absolute power. 

Edited August 15, 2022 by NorskTiger

[NorskTiger]

7 minutes ago, Tim_Melb said:

What a joke! At least three quarters of these so called bases do not exist or are not bases for the US military. The US has no bases in the Philippines, no bases in Thailand, no bases in Afghanistan, only one base in Australia. Most of your so called bases are historical locations that have not existed for 20 to 40 years or more. I'm surprised you haven't included US bases in Australia that only existed before n WWII 

     While I agree that USA has very many stripped-down localitites all over the world, they are there. The infrastructure and logistical setup is there and in most cases, there is organic cadres in many places which rapidly can be filled with cobat units as needed. 

      Yes, USA has no more bases in the Philippines and a further distancing from USA by Philippine government is in the cards. Thailand has no official US bases as such, but there exists a structure for "forward positioning", that still is not eliminated by Thai government. I expect the latter to be happening over the next years. 

   Afghanistan, yes what can one say? They exited more or less with the tail behind their legs and left most collaborators over the last 20 years to their own demise as appears the typical pattern. 

     Meanwhile, China has ONE military base in the world outside of China and even THAT is not "accepted" by USA and it's vassals. 

 

      Going back to the original headline, to stick to topic. I believe Thailand will continue to evolve independently and stay sovereign without being beholden to any power. A strong culture that is backed by a solid monarchic structure throughout centuries will always outlast the latest fad of the money-changers..

[Tim_Melb]

3 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

Meanwhile, China has ONE military base in the world outside of China and even THAT is not "accepted" by USA and it's vassals. 

Rubbish, the Chinese government has several bases on artificial islands and natural islands in the waters they illegally claim throughout the West Philippines Sea. Some of which are on the territory of both the Philippines and Vietnam. 

[Tim_Melb]

3 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

Thailand has no official US bases as such, but there exists a structure for "forward positioning", that still is not eliminated by Thai government.

Claiming sites of Vietnam war era airfields as infrastructure that could be activated for modern use is not only  sheer fantasy but it is a outright lie. Even if those old runways were brand new they were never built to handle the weight and impact of  modern aircraft so they would have to be torn up and completely rebuilt and all the supporting infrastructure is long gone so your claim is complete fabrication. 

[NorskTiger]

1 hour ago, Tim_Melb said:

Rubbish, the Chinese government has several bases on artificial islands and natural islands in the waters they illegally claim throughout the West Philippines Sea. Some of which are on the territory of both the Philippines and Vietnam. 

      I am certain you understand the quantitative and qualitative difference between a few island in the south CHINA sea and USA having bases all-over in sovereign nations. 

        Same goes with teh contested struggle over some islands with the Philippines and Vietnam. What bis clear is that neither nation is using your level of rhetoric and neither is there any sign that they intend to. 

 

         The issues between China and the Philippines (in particular) will be resolved between the two nations, no matter how much the US state department tries to interpose itself in the middle and whip up more frenzy. 

[NorskTiger]

1 hour ago, Tim_Melb said:

Claiming sites of Vietnam war era airfields as infrastructure that could be activated for modern use is not only  sheer fantasy but it is a outright lie. Even if those old runways were brand new they were never built to handle the weight and impact of  modern aircraft so they would have to be torn up and completely rebuilt and all the supporting infrastructure is long gone so your claim is complete fabrication. 

Quite a vitrolic load from your side, isn't it?

   Does Thailand and USA have a "forward positioning" agreemnt or not`? Whether it is "old" or not, so what? An agreement exists and it is a part of the US foreign basing policy and planning. 

    However, it is likely there will be an intent from the side of Thailand to cancel these agreement as time goes by and USA keeps withing away their influence in Asia, no doubt. Thailand is likely to wanteliminating all these provisions the more the monarchy is being challenged by "color revolution" attempts. I feel sorry for these students who are being used as proxy pawns by the West, I really do. 

Edited August 15, 2022 by NorskTiger

[Tim_Melb]

17 hours ago, NorskTiger said:

The issues between China and the Philippines (in particular) will be resolved between the two nations, no matter how much the US state department tries to interpose itself in the middle and whip up more frenzy.

The US State department has nothing to do with it. The matter has been ruled upon by the international court and decided in the favour of the Philippines, years ago. Now that the Chinese sympathiser Duterte is gone China's claims will get the resistance they should always have received.