News Forum - Russia’s FM Sergei Lavrov warns US not to supply Ukraine with arms

[Fanta]

1 hour ago, EdwardV said:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization

More ”proof” from the Institute of Stories for Washington written in March. All reservists have completed at least 12 months of training so using fresh conscripts on the battlefield is counterproductive. The fact remains that the Russians are already taking  ground with a ratio of less than 1:1. Ukraine has 240,000 reserves with millions of angry tractor drivers ready to hitch up the load. Tipping in another 150k soldiers active soldiers is doable for Russia. but perhaps not even necessary. As my wife says at the  gold shop “more is  good, hansum man” The logistics to increase the numbers are not her problem. Woe is me….

[EdwardV]

1 minute ago, Fanta said:

All reservists have completed at least 12 months of training so using fresh conscripts on the battlefield is counterproductive.

You mean besides the fact some of those reservists training might be as old as 8-9 years ago right? I do agree it’s better than raw conscripts, even if just a little. It’s probably why Russia extended the conscription length of last years batch. 

Taking ground where? I do see Russia losing a lot of ground in the north. 

[Vigo]

7 hours ago, vlad said:

Well it's Victory day tomorrow in Moscow I wonder what victory's in the Ukraine Putin will be spinning to his fickle Country Men & Woman.

Magnificent  battle victories of Syria using barrel bombs on civilians and facilitating the use of poison gas by Assad the  butcher.

Perhaps the parade will feature the march of the African despot clients including Mozambique, Angola, Central African Republic, Sudan, and Guinea.

 

[Fanta]

8 minutes ago, Vigo said:

Perhaps the parade will feature the march of the African despot clients including Mozambique, Angola, Central African Republic, Sudan, and Guinea.

The Russians will just drag them behind the tanks with chains so they don’t get lost. Those Russians don’t seem to walk anywhere.

[Fanta]

13 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Taking ground where? I do see Russia losing a lot of ground in the north.

Good to hear they are losing ground. Progress is progress. Be good to see a time lapse map of the invasion but my Google skills fail me. I can find a year long time lapse of traffic from a webcam complete with pigeons but not a 10 week old war. 

https://liveuamap.com doesn’t appear to offer that. 

 

[Fester]

6 hours ago, Fanta said:

Conquer Ukraine eh? Not in the game plan unless Putin has decided he wants to add some 5 star hotels to his piggy bank - they are doing a vigorous trade at the moment. U2 are doing a concert! I still think he will take Donbas and sue for peace. If that doesn’t work he will take the final sea port at Odessa and then offer to trade it for peace. The world needs it’s Weetie Bix.  Can’t see Putin giving up territorial gains to date. Russia can squeeze another 150,000 soldiers onto the battlefield without needing a recruitment drive. Apart from China who is going to attack Russia at home? No-one. 

If he doesn't secure Donbas he'll have to leave it rather unsecure because he'll need most of the existing Orc forces in Ukraine to have any chance of taking Odesa, where the biggest battle would be.    

[Fester]

49 minutes ago, Fanta said:

More ”proof” from the Institute of Stories for Washington written in March. All reservists have completed at least 12 months of training so using fresh conscripts on the battlefield is counterproductive. The fact remains that the Russians are already taking  ground with a ratio of less than 1:1. Ukraine has 240,000 reserves with millions of angry tractor drivers ready to hitch up the load. Tipping in another 150k soldiers active soldiers is doable for Russia. but perhaps not even necessary. As my wife says at the  gold shop “more is  good, hansum man” The logistics to increase the numbers are not her problem. Woe is me….

Taking a few villages in the east but giving up all previous gains around Kiev and many near Kharkov.

The Orcs can't deal with Ukraine as a country. It's too big.

[oldschooler]

2 hours ago, EdwardV said:

Because most conscripts and contractors are concentrated in different fields. 
 

Trained is a word that doesn’t describe Russian reserves as much as you wish: 

Historically, only 10 percent of reservists receive refresher training after completing their initial term of service.[12] Russia lacks the administrative and financial capacity to train reservists on an ongoing basis. According to a 2019 RAND analysis, Russia only had 4,000 to 5,000 troops in what would be considered an active reserve in the Western sense, meaning soldiers attending regular monthly and annual training.[13] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has repeatedly stated that the Russian Armed Forces hoped to have 80,000-100,000 active reserve members.[14]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization
 

Just calling them up will be a chore, it’s why the government has started hiring people some level of skill in that field. 

Russian WW2 Human Waves Coming Up ? One Rifle every five troops ?

[oldschooler]

1 hour ago, Vigo said:

Magnificent  battle victories of Syria using barrel bombs on civilians and facilitating the use of poison gas by Assad the  butcher.

Perhaps the parade will feature the march of the African despot clients including Mozambique, Angola, Central African Republic, Sudan, and Guinea.

Syrian / Russian Objective: burden EU with two million Syrian “ traitors”. Worked.
Russian Ukraine Objective: 10 million civilian refugees. Worked. Nothing Else has worked, except Ukraine Wrecked now for a generation.

[oldschooler]

46 minutes ago, Fester said:

Taking a few villages in the east but giving up all previous gains around Kiev and many near Kharkov.

The Orcs can't deal with Ukraine as a country. It's too big.

Russia wants to annex the ethnic Russian- speaking East & South, like they did Crimea. Can’t See It.

[Smithydog]

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

So Russia has already been fighting at less than 1:1 ratio? Throwing another 150-250k soldiers in could heavily tip the scales in Russia’s favor if this turns into a battle of ground troops. Artillery seems to be the weapon de jour. Ukraine must win Donbas or at least fight it to a stalemate until the new toys arrive otherwise Odessa is the next front.

"Odessa is the next front"

That seems to be the problem with all of this. In my opinion, for Putin it seems there will always likely be a "next front". Why would anyone assume he would stop at Odessa or Ukraine for that matter?

What will be the next laughable series of excuses he brings up for say invading Moldova? Fears over a new Ottoman Empire arising?

https://education.stateuniversity.com/pages/991/Moldova-HISTORY-BACKGROUND.html

 

[Fanta]

Just now, oldschooler said:

Ukraine Wrecked now for a generation

Disagree. Zoom Zelenskky will guilt trip Europe and the US into helping rebuild the country while waving a scare bear Putin cut out for extra emphasis. If Ukraine comes out of this war as an independent country it will be economically and militarily stronger than when they went into it.

[oldschooler]

1 minute ago, Smithydog said:

"Odessa is the next front"

That seems to be the problem with all of this. In my opinion, for Putin it seems there will always likely be a "next front". Why would anyone assume he would stop at Odessa or Ukraine for that matter?

What will be the next laughable series of excuses he brings up for say invading Moldova? Fears over a new Ottoman Empire arising?

https://education.stateuniversity.com/pages/991/Moldova-HISTORY-BACKGROUND.html

Let Ukraine / NATO continue to grind Putins Mob into the dirt and finish them as a major force/ threat. Next Up: your US Long Range Howitzers are served sir

[HolyCowCm]

8 hours ago, EdwardV said:

Maybe or a small tactical nuke. However to what end? To warn off the west? To get them to cut Ukraine loose? It’s much more likely to have the opposite effect. They already know to give in to nuclear blackmail would be a disaster of worldwide proportions. Not only would Russia not stop, but others like North Korea, China, Iran and so on would do the same. Keeping in mind any fallout would probably drift over Europe. It’s more likely NATO would surge forward into western Ukraine. Likely to a line east of Kyiv and Odesa. The side question is what happens to the non-proliferation treaty? 

It depends on how delusional Putin gets or how delusional he actually really is in his state of mind now. When someones back is up against a wall or on a ledge......... Or amybe he goes out of the box and secretely attacks Nato countires via his ghosts.

[oldschooler]

2 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Disagree. Zoom Zelenskky will guilt trip Europe and the US into helping rebuild the country while waving a scare bear Putin cut out for extra emphasis. If Ukraine comes out of this war as an independent country it will be economically and militarily stronger than when they went into it.

Russian Reparations will Rebuild Ukraine. Frozen Russian 100’s billions US$ In western banks plus restored Russian oil/ gas/ mineral incomes direct to West to directly control rebuilding ? Russia Bankrupt by 2030 ?

[Fanta]

15 minutes ago, Smithydog said:

Why would anyone assume he would stop at Odessa or Ukraine for that matter

I think it makes sense to stop at Donbas - special operation objectives complete. Taking all of Ukraine risks it turning into another Chechnya. I read the Wikipedia articles on those wars.. Oh my. What a PITA for Russia from a country of only 1+ million people. Taking Odessa means no exports for Ukraine via the Black Sea. That is a disaster for Ukraine and, more importantly, the world’s food supply. It’s just too much heat to cut that route off. Putin might be crazy but he definitely is not stupid. Crimea to Donbas will satisfy Russia. Until the next time.

[Fanta]

10 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Russia Bankrupt by 2030 ?

lol.. only if the world converts to solar power and electric vehicles. 

[vlad]

Oh well Putin can Boast today on Victory day he successfully targeted a School and killed over 60 Civilians

 

[JamesR]

18 minutes ago, vlad said:

Oh well Putin can Boast today on Victory day he successfully targeted a School and killed over 60 Civilians

And you actually know he target the school because you were told he had done so?

[Marble-eye]

2 hours ago, JamesR said:

And you actually know he target the school because you were told he had done so?

Your post is none too clear James, are you saying it didn't happen or are you saying it did happen but we cannot assume it was the Russians? 

[oldschooler]

4 minutes ago, Marble-eye said:

Your post is none too clear James, are you saying it didn't happen or are you saying it did happen but we cannot assume it was the Russians? 

He’s asking how do we know it was specifically targeted or hit accidentally or indiscriminately. I suppose that can never be known for sure unless three schools hit or same school hit three times.
 

What IS known statistically is that Russia targets civilian residential areas as terror warfare to get those ten million civilian refugees moving to disrupt & wreck the country. 

[JamesR]

1 minute ago, oldschooler said:

He’s asking how do we know it was specifically targeted or hit accidentally or indiscriminately. I suppose that can never be known for sure unless three schools hit or same school hit three times.
 

What IS known statistically is that Russia targets civilian residential areas as terror warfare to get those ten million civilian refugees moving to disrupt & wreck the country. 

We don't know exactly what is going on, and how much is bias.

We know generally but not the detail.

I refer to a BBC News At Ten live report back in the year 2000 stating, the residents of Crays Hill are living in fear, as I was at that time living in the village watching the report I had to carry watching the news to see what I was living in fear of, the news is a business like anything else and things are 'added' or as in the case regarding my village completely made up. 

[Fanta]

5 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

What IS known statistically is that Russia targets civilian residential areas as terror warfare to get those ten million civilian refugees moving to disrupt & wreck the country

What is also known statistically is that Ukraine stations troops and equipment in residential areas. That’s what the Washington Post said so, according to some, it must be true. They didn’t call it a violation of international law or imply use of human shields though. Bully for them! 

[Poolie]

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

Disagree. Zoom Zelenskky will guilt trip Europe and the US into helping rebuild the country while waving a scare bear Putin cut out for extra emphasis. If Ukraine comes out of this war as an independent country it will be economically and militarily stronger than when they went into it.

US rebuild anywhere? You're having a laugh. Half of America itself is tatty and old.

[oldschooler]

3 minutes ago, JamesR said:

We don't know exactly what is going on, and how much is bias.

We know generally but not the detail.

I refer to a BBC News At Ten live report back in the year 2000 stating, the residents of Crays Hill are living in fear, as I was at that time living in the village watching the report I had to carry watching the news to see what I was living in fear of, the news is a business like anything else and things are 'added' or as in the case regarding my village completely made up. 

Well my above 1st para covers the “ general” I.e. media or govt coverage of incidents you refer to. 2nd para. is the “specific” outcome from which the intent is readily concluded.

That is, the certainty of Russian Terror Bombardment of Civilians, also stated by UK , UK, EU etc. So no need to appear completely baffled and “even -handed” ! Russians ARE obviously the Bad Guys here.