News Forum - UKRAINE UPDATES: Ultimatums ‘not feasible’; Russian offensive stalls; Putin’s ‘back is against the wall’

[oldschooler]

2 hours ago, Freeduhdumb said:

Discredited? Lol. None of my factual, thoughtful, on the mark, truthful explanations of the current Ukrainian-Russian conflict have been discredited on this platform. I lived in the Donbass for four years, working or THE only peacekeeping mission operating within the Ukraine since 2015... I am an expert witness to what's occurring there. And no... I am not going to again take the time to explain or prove to you how what I have just said is in fact true. It's truly amusing reading many of your comments however. It's a good indicator of just how people make $hit3 up to make themselves appear knowledegable. Good Luck in your search for the truth. Know this... Putin currently has the situation firmly in his grasp, and as the facts on the ground currently exist, he will be prevailing in this conflict. The West had their chance... 

Would rather form my opinions from western geopolitical experts and published western military intelligence reports than obvious lies & propaganda by Russia. Yeah can see Putin planned for his incompetent military shitshow and effect of western unified sanctions & aid to Ukraine.

[EdwardV]

35 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

Is Germany, the EU sanctioned? Not even Biden, AFTER he (LoL) stopped USA buying Oil and Oil-products in Russia(at least officially)  , is calling for sanctions on Germany and the EU. 

In fact the US had stopped buying Russian oil over a week before Biden banned it. The oil companies did that on their own. Keeping in mind the only reason US companies were buying Russian oil was because the US two years had earlier banned the import of oil from Venezuela. The refineries in Louisiana are high tech and can process the cheap thick dirty (high sulfur) oil that comes from Venezuela. Instead of spending the money to basically dumbing down the plants they switched to the cheap thick dirty oil that comes from the Urals instead. That said, oil from Russia isn't sanctioned, so no Germany and the EU are not sanctioned either. However there is talk out of the EU they plan to do just that, ban the import of Russian oil. I'm sure they are just lining up outside suppliers first. The real trick won't be banning Russian oil (they will just buy the Middle East and African oil that was going to China instead), it will be natural gas. There isn't enough outside capacity to replace what comes from Russia. Not yet at least. 

48 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

Oh, and with the markets: Last Info's I had, China and India have about 40% of world population, and their biggest market is now INNER ASIA, for about 10 years already. Plus now with ASEAN, this market is growing by the day.

Except that market is already tapped out. See the problem is both China and India are export lead economies. They produce more products than their population can consume, hence why they must export the balance. Most all of ASEAN is in the same situation, they are export economies. Do they buy a lot of products, of course. That's because a lot of people live there. However it doesn't change the fact they produce more than the population can consume. 

52 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

I am not even sure, they would start a trade war with China, in case China would openly support Russia with weapons. Like the west supports Ukraine? Because that would hurt a lot, the west I mean!

You mean other than the trade war that still going on right? All of the trade sanctions implemented by Trump are still in place under Biden. The trade war never ended. Fact is China is terrified of secondary sanctions and why they publicly state they have no intention of supplying Russia with weapons. It's why China has already threatened the US in advance over sanctions. Secondary sanctions would cripple the Chinese economy (see above), keeping in mind it wouldn't just come from the US but also from the EU. Never mind China wouldn't really have much to sell Russia. They are the buyer, not a seller between the two countries. 

[oldschooler]

2 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

For someone , who is "oldschooler", still news, methinks!

Something to read;

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50100.htm

Serbia HATES the West after it humiliated them by stopping their ethnic cleansing programs by bombing Belgrade. Serbia has always allied with Russia. NATO ain’t letting in our enemy !

[oldschooler]

2 hours ago, Freeduhdumb said:

Yet another sycophantic, virtue signaling attempt to opine on things you have very little actual knowledge of... Its typical behavior on this platform. 

Talking about yourself to the mirror aren’t you ?

[Guest1]

23 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Well off topic . Subject is Ukraine not Asian markets. 

Not really of topic. Since the outcome of this war will hit the world almost everywhere, and since Sanctions and russian Oil/Gas/Petrol is big part of this war, there should be place for a view, while some thing will, but others most likely won't happen!

This war is total different to all other wars. Even with the military actions limited, at time, to the Ukraine, all the world is called to participate the one or the other way, already!

Take sides, chose the right one. Pay for your choice!

[oldschooler]

Just now, Guest1 said:

Not really of topic. Since the outcome of this war will hit the world almost everywhere, and since Sanctions and russian Oil/Gas/Petrol is big part of this war, there should be place for a view, while some thing will, but others most likely won't happen!

This war is total different to all other wars. Even with the military actions limited, at time, to the Ukraine, all the world is called to participate the one or the other way, already!

Take sides, chose the right one. Pay for your choice!

Only NATO nations ,outside the directly warring parties, really matter

Suggest we stick to these directly concerned action- taking nations.

Ukraine & NATO are fast bleeding Russia Dry. 

[oldschooler]

8 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

In fact the US had stopped buying Russian oil over a week before Biden banned it. The oil companies did that on their own. Keeping in mind the only reason US companies were buying Russian oil was because the US two years had earlier banned the import of oil from Venezuela. The refineries in Louisiana are high tech and can process the cheap thick dirty (high sulfur) oil that comes from Venezuela. Instead of spending the money to basically dumbing down the plants they switched to the cheap thick dirty oil that comes from the Urals instead. That said, oil from Russia isn't sanctioned, so no Germany and the EU are not sanctioned either. However there is talk out of the EU they plan to do just that, ban the import of Russian oil. I'm sure they are just lining up outside suppliers first. The real trick won't be banning Russian oil (they will just buy the Middle East and African oil that was going to China instead), it will be natural gas. There isn't enough outside capacity to replace what comes from Russia. Not yet at least. 

Except that market is already tapped out. See the problem is both China and India are export lead economies. They produce more products than their population can consume, hence why they must export the balance. Most all of ASEAN is in the same situation, they are export economies. Do they buy a lot of products, of course. That's because a lot of people live there. However it doesn't change the fact they produce more than the population can consume. 

You mean other than the trade war that still going on right? All of the trade sanctions implemented by Trump are still in place under Biden. The trade war never ended. Fact is China is terrified of secondary sanctions and why they publicly state they have no intention of supplying Russia with weapons. It's why China has already threatened the US in advance over sanctions. Secondary sanctions would cripple the Chinese economy (see above), keeping in mind it wouldn't just come from the US but also from the EU. Never mind China wouldn't really have much to sell Russia. They are the buyer, not a seller between the two countries. 

Military & Politics sufficiently complex for me. Economics a step too far except that Russia ( Sanctions) & Ukraine ( Physically) are both now Wrecked Economically.

[Guest1]

10 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Keeping in mind the only reason US companies were buying Russian oil was because the US two years had earlier banned the import of oil from Venezuela.

You mean, Venezuela is the reason, while they bought about 50% MORE oil, the past 2 years, from Russia?

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIM_NUS-NRS_1&f=M

Because the US was importing Oil from Russia  since  1995.

Before Crimea, they imported already about as much, as they did, again, after Venezuela oil got banned. But the Crimea occupation did not even stop that. 

[Guest1]

59 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

And when western manufacturers leave India and China?

Yeah thats right. Their economies collapse.

The EU has been told to get off Russian supplies. And it can do that. Its more expensive but thats the way of things when you engage in economic sanctions.

With "their economies", do you mean the manufacturers?

For many manufacturers, China is the biggest market!

Lots of companies are having 20+ % of their worldwide sales in China. Some even 40 or over 50% :QUALCOMM, TI, WDC for example.

 

[Guest1]

28 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

Serbia HATES the West after it humiliated them by stopping their ethnic cleansing programs by bombing Belgrade. Serbia has always allied with Russia. NATO ain’t letting in our enemy !

You can't help yourself, huu?

NATO would take EVERYONE, if it helps to get the biggest alliance.

Why you think, Turkey is in it? Not really because of the same beliefs, don't you think?

[EdwardV]

17 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

You mean, Venezuela is the reason, while they bought about 50% MORE oil, the past 2 years, from Russia?

Prior to around 2010, the US was a huge oil importer. However the shale revolution changed all that. By 2020, the US was an net oil exporter, and currently has the largest oil reserves this side of Saudi Arabia. The key term was "net". That doesn't mean they don't import, since different refineries are built to process different types of oil. From light sweet shale oil, to the heavy high sulfur, to the thick sludge that comes from oil sands out of Canada. You need the right mix and it means you import to get there. It also means the percentages vary from time to time based on price.  The Venezuela sanctions only started 2-3 years ago, so yes the amount would jump at that point. Keep in mind not all the oil "imported" into the US is actually destined for US markets. Some of the refineries are owned by Saudi Arabia, they "import" into the US, refine the oil and send it to Europe.  

Regardless, as far as Ukraine and Russia, the Russian's are already having to massively discount their oil to get buyers. It's not sanctioned, just no one wants to buy it. I wonder why? 

[Guest1]

9 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Russian's are already having to massively discount their oil to get buyers. It's not sanctioned, just no one wants to buy it. I wonder why? 

Because Oil gets transported over Sea, mostly? And there is this "world police" out there, with alone 11 Air carrier strike groups?

[Rookiescot]

33 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

With "their economies", do you mean the manufacturers?

For many manufacturers, China is the biggest market!

Lots of companies are having 20+ % of their worldwide sales in China. Some even 40 or over 50% :QUALCOMM, TI, WDC for example.

Some companies will take hits. No doubt about it.

Do you think the western governments care about individual companies? Other companies are available after all.

Of course they dont. This is an opportunity to put Czar Putins economy back into the stone age along with anyone else who helps him.

The west is going to take this chance.

[EdwardV]

3 hours ago, Guest1 said:

India and China are desperate to get cheap gas, oil, petrol. So the "no buyer" thing should be of the plate, don't you think?

You would think so, and in the case of India that's true. However with China not as much as you would think. See it's very expensive to ship oil from St. Petersburg or Novorossiysk to China. The Russian ports are shallow and can't take super tankers. That means you have to load it on a smaller tanker, sail out to the ocean and transfer for the balance of the trip. From St. Petersburg that means sailing around Africa. It's expensive and why China was cutting deals with Saudi Arabia just week or so ago. As for shipping it by pipe. The pipelines from Russia to China are already maxed out and it takes at least a decade to build a new one.   

[Guest1]

8 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

This is an opportunity to put Czar Putins economy back into the stone age along with anyone else who helps him.

The west is going to take this chance.

So we still have to hope, that Czar Putin does not see the need, to escalate "a bit further" , then!  As it is openly discussed, for Putin it is "all or nothing", now. If he loses, he is done. 

Hot weeks or month is this spring delivering

[Alavan]

3 hours ago, Guest1 said:

Same like EU seem to be willing to drop "a couple" of requirements, also, to get a new money grab into the Union, quickly. If they get a chance to do so. 

Becoming an EU member can take 15 years (Turkey is waiting already more than 20 years and I guess they will never become a member. Certainly not with Erdogan). To much corruption now in Ukraine to even start the procedures. Besides we in the EU see what problems we have with Poland and Hungary, they don't agree to EU standards but just rake in the money. I guess Western Europe isn't so enthousiast any more. Some former East block countries want Ukraine in fast, but not so in the West.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Alavan

[Rookiescot]

9 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

So we still have to hope, that Czar Putin does not see the need, to escalate "a bit further" , then!  As it is openly discussed, for Putin it is "all or nothing", now. If he loses, he is done. 

Hot weeks or month is this spring delivering

What makes you think he can escalate? Others control all that stuff.

[Guest1]

10 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

See it's very expensive to ship oil from St. Petersburg or Novorossiysk to China.

That's why they have a deal, to transport Oil through Kazakhstan instead.

And, building a new, massive gas pipeline, don't you think, they may think about that for oil, too?

Kazakhstan already  has a pipeline to Xinjiang in China. So .....

[EdwardV]

8 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

Because Oil gets transported over Sea, mostly? And there is this "world police" out there, with alone 11 Air carrier strike groups?

Interestingly weird reply to say the least. The reason there are few buyer is clearly the war. You have a couple of issues. First you can't get trade indemnity insurance for Russian goods, the same with maritime insurance out of the Black Sea. Some 50% of all Russia trade exits through the Black Sea. Second shipping companies don't want to take on Russian oil. They are afraid of getting stuck with it if and when sanctions come down. Same with ship captains, and it's even hard to get it off loaded in many ports in Europe. 

The real issue going forward for Russian oil isn't actually shipping. It's something few are talking about yet. It's the fact Halliburton just left the Russia. Look for Schlumberger and Baker to follow shortly and once that happens, it's all downhill from there. 

[EdwardV]

2 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

That's why they have a deal, to transport Oil through Kazakhstan instead.

And, building a new, massive gas pipeline, don't you think, they may think about that for oil, too?

Kazakhstan already  has a pipeline to Xinjiang in China. So .....

Actually yes they did and it's why a new oil pipeline just came on line this year. However all of them, the Kazakhstan one too, are all maxed out. China and Russia just this Feb signed an agreement to start building a new line, huge contract, but again that's a good decade or more away. 

[Guest1]

2 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

What makes you think he can escalate? Others control all that stuff.

The hypersonic missiles are already shown. As a warning, I would say. No one needed that Kinzhal, to destroy the weapon depot. That was absolutely a "show off".

Think about, Putin deploys them in Kuba: Up to New York everything in 15-20 minutes reachable! And it can carry conventional and nuclear warheads!

Aside that all capitols in Europe, except Lisbon, are in reach, too!

[Alavan]

12 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

That's why they have a deal, to transport Oil through Kazakhstan instead.

And, building a new, massive gas pipeline, don't you think, they may think about that for oil, too?

Kazakhstan already  has a pipeline to Xinjiang in China. So .....

But Is there a connection between Russia's gasfields in Northern Siberia like Yamal and Kazakstan? I don't know.
What I know is that Yamal gas is transported by icestrenthened LNG-carriers to Western Europe (Like Zeebrugge Belgium) and there transhiped on conventional LNG-carriers to Asia.

[oldschooler]

1 hour ago, Guest1 said:

You can't help yourself, huu?

NATO would take EVERYONE, if it helps to get the biggest alliance.

Why you think, Turkey is in it? Not really because of the same beliefs, don't you think?

Strategic Interest.Turkey Helps Protect NATO South Flank & Med Sea Access. 
Threatens Russia from South. Natural & Historic Russian Enemy. Brilliant NATO Acquisition. Unlike Serbia. 

[oldschooler]

19 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Interestingly weird reply to say the least. The reason there are few buyer is clearly the war. You have a couple of issues. First you can't get trade indemnity insurance for Russian goods, the same with maritime insurance out of the Black Sea. Some 50% of all Russia trade exits through the Black Sea. Second shipping companies don't want to take on Russian oil. They are afraid of getting stuck with it if and when sanctions come down. Same with ship captains, and it's even hard to get it off loaded in many ports in Europe. 

The real issue going forward for Russian oil isn't actually shipping. It's something few are talking about yet. It's the fact Halliburton just left the Russia. Look for Schlumberger and Baker to follow shortly and once that happens, it's all downhill from there. 

BP Gone Too…..

[EdwardV]

3 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

The hypersonic missiles are already shown. As a warning, I would say. No one needed that Kinzhal, to destroy the weapon depot. That was absolutely a "show off".

 

Absolutely.

That said don't get too enamored with the Kinzhal missile. Besides the fact it's not what people think about when talking about a hypersonic missiles. They think about cutting edge stuff, either a hypersonic glide or a hypersonic cruise missile. The Kinzhal is ballistic missile, an airborne version of the Russian Iskander. Ballistic missiles are classified as hypersonic because they travel faster than Mach5. Technically even the old German V2s was a hypersonic missile. Heck it isn't even the first hypersonic airborne missile. The US once successfully launched a Minuteman out of the back of a C5 Galaxy to test viability. The Kinzhal was designed to be an anti ship missile, and there is nothing wrong with the idea or even using it against ground targets. Just there it isn't anything special or even new.