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News Forum - Monday Covid Update: 7,592 new cases and 39 deaths


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7,592 new Covid-19 cases and 39 coronavirus-related deaths were reported today by the CCSA. In the 24-hour period since the last count, the CCSA has recorded 7,495 recoveries. There are now 98,425 people in Thailand being treated for Covid-19. In the latest and most severe wave of the virus in Thailand, first recorded on April 1, the CCSA has recorded 1,946,728 confirmed Covid-19 cases. Out of the new cases reported today, 711 were found in correctional facilities. More than 75,000 inmates at Thailand’s overcrowded prisons and detention centres have tested positive for Covid-19 over the past several months. More information and […]

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Capacity for 120k PCR tests, but only doing about 30k for the official figures to make it look like there are not many cases.

The other 90k available for payment 💰💰💰 by arriving travelers that don't add much to the numbers as they've tested negative before their flight, but have to pay way over the odds for a compulsory test.

Cash is apparently much more important to the ones in power than the health of the nation.

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While probably inaccurate on both counts (cases and deaths), the general trend seems to be an accurate reflection as it's supported by all and any verifiable numbers elsewhere such as severe hospitalised cases, numbers on ventilators, and excess deaths.

Until vaccinations take off, though, it's just doomed to pendulum from place to place as well as up and down.

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From first hand experience, fourth step test and trace can ask for a rapid flow test, while they may not always get it, third step are getting / can get rapid flow tests and first and second step get PCR tests.

Paid for PCR tests locally, available to anyone not just 'arriving travellers' have come down from 3,000 baht to 1,800 baht.

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12 minutes ago, yetanother said:

i live in a province initials CR; 

there is a nearby village, to where i live, that is in total lockdown, no-one in or out, has been for at least two days;

the provincial totals do NOT reflect that; this is the third such occasion in the past 6 months where clusters near me are unearthed but never any reflection in provincial totals;

guessing maybe ony the largest public hospital in the province figures are the province figures 

Same happening here in Buriram and obviously all over Thailand.

Keep the numbers looking low encourage tourism both internationally and domestically the money flow is more important than the health of the people...😡

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1 hour ago, Griff1315 said:

Same happening here in Buriram and obviously all over Thailand.

Keep the numbers looking low encourage tourism both internationally and domestically the money flow is more important than the health of the people...😡

I can understand your cynicism and mistrust of the gov but if it's about encouraging tourism under false pretences, why not just scrap the alcohol ban and reopen the bars? Then there is the issue, that if a lot of tourists return home infected, how long before TH is again red-listed by the countries that matter to their tourist trade?

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2 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I can understand your cynicism and mistrust of the gov but if it's about encouraging tourism under false pretences, why not just scrap the alcohol ban and reopen the bars. Then there is the issue, that if a lot of tourists return home infected, how long before TH is again red-listed by the countries that matter to their tourist trade.

I’m not sure it’s necessarily about international tourism. I think it’s a case of  Investor, Consumer and Business confidence.  It’s that part of the economy they want to kick-start. They are doing all they can to stop international tourism while appearing to be doing all they can to start it. Looks great headlines, but you try going through the process. It’s purgatory.    

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3 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I’m not sure it’s necessarily about international tourism. I think it’s a case of  Investor, Consumer and Business confidence.  It’s that part of the economy they want to kick-start. They are doing all they can to stop international tourism while appearing to be doing all they can to start it. Looks great headlines, but you try going through the process. It’s purgatory.    

Not sure I follow the logic of that strategy. But then again, that can be said about much of Thai logic.

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10 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I can understand your cynicism and mistrust of the gov but if it's about encouraging tourism under false pretences, why not just scrap the alcohol ban and reopen the bars? Then there is the issue, that if a lot of tourists return home infected, how long before TH is again red-listed by the countries that matter to their tourist trade?

Exactly. 

There's nothing it could possibly achieve in the short, medium or long term as nobody can possibly gain anything - financial, economic or political - by further erosion of what little trust there is and by more closures of not just bars and restaurants but, equally, factories and production.

There's just no possible way anyone potentially responsible stands to gain anything.

As I've said repeatedly, I doubt the death and case figures are correct and they may even be out by a factor of as much as two if you look at the more verifiable figures for excess deaths, serious hospitalisations, those on ventilators, and so on  -  but that's been pretty much the case for the last 18 months or so when they've been consistently out by a similar amount.

Taking all the other available factors into consideration, the figures simply reflect trends up and down and now, fortunately, the trend is down.

 

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37 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I think it’s a case of  Investor, Consumer and Business confidence.  It’s that part of the economy they want to kick-start.

Maybe there's some factor I'm missing, but I don't see how "Investor, Consumer and Business confidence" can grow when businesses, construction, factories and production are all being hit by Covid hot spots and closures.

How can that part of the economy be kick-started when it's regularly being closed down?

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3 hours ago, yetanother said:

i live in a province initials CR; 

there is a nearby village, to where i live, that is in total lockdown, no-one in or out, has been for at least two days;

the provincial totals do NOT reflect that; this is the third such occasion in the past 6 months where clusters near me are unearthed but never any reflection in provincial totals;

guessing maybe ony the largest public hospital in the province figures are the province figures 

 

2 hours ago, Griff1315 said:

Same happening here in Buriram and obviously all over Thailand.

Keep the numbers looking low encourage tourism both internationally and domestically the money flow is more important than the health of the people...😡

I thought that before in my province (Loei) when there were local outbreaks and villages locked down that seemed to contradict the official figures, until I looked into it a lot more closely.

I'm not saying either of yours are the same, but in all the cases I checked the numbers were well within reported figures when taken as cumulative over four or five days, particularly when it involved test and tracing over 3 or 4 steps that could easily take a week or more from first test to last result.

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1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

Not sure I follow the logic of that strategy. But then again, that can be said about much of Thai logic.

Well what I’m suggesting; could be way off, is this:

Foreign tourism accounts for 10-12% of GDP. 

Investment and things like stock market value is driven by company performance, though more and more these days it’s affected by “sentiment”. Polls showing things like consumer confidence and business leader confidence etc. 

The government know they need to plug this 10% gap in GDP but they also know opening fully is a massive risk and need more time to get vaccination rates up. 
 

So how do they pull off a trick to do both?
 

Make it look like it’s all heading in the right direction. Make it look like government policy is working to open tourism and fill that gap just as soon as possible. 
 

Blame those pesky IT boys for not getting the TP to work and those pesky foreigners still not feeling confident 
 

People feel positive. They start spending. Business confidence grows they start investing in their businesses and rehiring people. People have more work etc. Foreign investors see the confidence returning and also look to invest. The currency and stocks gets supported and the rich stay rich.
 

By the time the reality of it starts to be realised they’ve gained another quarter of the year. Vaccinated many more and can really announce and implement full reopening.
 

Win win. Unless you are poor and nothing of the above has trickled down to you. But who cares about the “Hoi Polloi”

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9 hours ago, Soidog said:

People feel positive. They start spending. Business confidence grows they start investing in their businesses and rehiring people. People have more work etc. Foreign investors see the confidence returning and also look to invest. The currency and stocks gets supported and the rich stay rich.

The attached is exactly the kind of sentiment and positive vibe this con trick of the country opening up is all about in my opinion. This was in the BKK Post today..

DBC80427-8E1B-4C57-997F-0C1D015BF6C7.jpeg

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10 hours ago, Stonker said:

How can that part of the economy be kick-started when it's regularly being closed down?

I am not gonna argue whether these conspiracies are true or not.

But, hypothetically,  if they where to hide the numbers, i see it more as a kid playing with a ball inside and he just knows he kicked it too hard, and instead of trying to save that expensive vase, he is closing his eyes hoping everything will be fine.

Basically the same that happened in China (and pretty much everywhere)

Edited by Tjampman
Out of sight out of mind
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4 hours ago, Tjampman said:

I am not gonna argue whether these conspiracies are true or not.

But, hypothetically,  if they where to hide the numbers, i see it more as a kid playing with a ball inside and he just knows he kicked it too hard, and instead of trying to save that expensive vase, he is closing his eyes hoping everything will be fine.

Basically the same that happened in China (and pretty much everywhere)

Agreed absolutely, @Tjampman.

No-one can prove or disprove the figures or the real or imagined  conspiracies, so all you can do is either go by prejudice, one way or the other, or take them as a guide to trends if they're supported by other factors such as a consistent balance with excess deaths and serious hospitalisations / ventilator use - which they are.

At the same time, who would or could gain? No-one.

There's a world of difference between closing your eyes hoping all will be well while the ball bounces round the room, which I agree with you is what seems to be happening, and hiding the broken vase which is what the naysayers are all too keen to suggest is what's happening.

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5 hours ago, Soidog said:

This was in the BKK Post today..

DBC80427-8E1B-4C57-997F-0C1D015BF6C7.jpeg

Beyond much doubt a "positive vibe" which is 100% true - five months ago was May / June when the present Covid wave was growing to a peak and industries were slumping.

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12 minutes ago, Paulw said:

Foreign tourism accounts for 10-12% of GDP. 

This figure of 10 - 12% is way short, the actual is somewhere between 17 - 21% 

No! I think its somewhere between 0% and 100%. Beat that!

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19 hours ago, yetanother said:

i live in a province initials CR; 

there is a nearby village, to where i live, that is in total lockdown, no-one in or out, has been for at least two days;

the provincial totals do NOT reflect that; this is the third such occasion in the past 6 months where clusters near me are unearthed but never any reflection in provincial totals;

guessing maybe ony the largest public hospital in the province figures are the province figures 

+1, same story in my village

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4 hours ago, Poolie said:

No! I think its somewhere between 0% and 100%. Beat that!

OH god Jesus, are we starting to go into imaginary numbers!

Damn you Euler!

 

Edited by Tjampman
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3 minutes ago, Tjampman said:

OH god Jesus, are we starting to go into imaginary numbers!

Damn you Euler!

I don't see why not. Everyone else is making it up as they go along. 😀

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5 hours ago, Paulw said:

Foreign tourism accounts for 10-12% of GDP. 

This figure of 10 - 12% is way short, the actual is somewhere between 17 - 21% 

I believe the 21% of GDP to be the overall tourism figure. International tourism is said to be 10%-12%, with the remainder being local tourism revenue. But who knows? I am sceptical about every figure that comes out of central government.  

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