News Forum - Tourism calls for Russia and India to be added to safe list

[JamesR]

16 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

It seems dumb is starting to become as contagious on this forum. Unfortunately there is no vaccine to help.

But let me give you a simple lesson in arithmetic. The UK gov has just updated it's figures as of 16.00 today. They are now showing 45.56 mill vaccinated. Based on a population of 67.5 (ONS figures), you arrive at a figure of 67.5%

So what could be dumber than telling someone they are dumb, when they are right and you are wrong. The previous award has been made in error, and will now be given the most deserving recipient. You can wear it with pride.

I see, I didn't see the update as of today as I do not sit and monitor it all day, my figures were based on previous numbers before they shifted the total population they count in their figures.

 

[Alavan]

2 hours ago, Brownie said:

Wow! The Pakistanis spend more than the Brits!

Must be stats from a Halal restaurant
Now, if it was those from a brewery...

Edited October 25, 2021 by Alavan

[JohninDublin]

33 minutes ago, JamesR said:

Right so at one point it was over 80% but now they have added kids to the plan so that has made the total vaccinated smaller as a percentage of the population too.

It is still  a good number re the UK as I think most other countries are not vaccinating kids yet so in real terms their vaccination percentages are also less than they quote.

I think you might have had an epiphany and are beginning to understand the problem.

I do not complain it's a bad number. This and the furlough scheme are some of the very few things that I think Bojo got right and they have certainly behaved creditably in the roll-out,

The problem I've been having all day, and not just with you, is that so many of the claims about "Our country has a better vax rate than yours", is most are clearly wrong, and often fail to compare like with like. The only real chance you have to do that is setting the same standard for all. "What is the population. How many have been vaxxed once? How many have been vaxxed twice?" is the only way of making accurate comparisons. That's why I use https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations as a a source for stats.

[JohninDublin]

56 minutes ago, JamesR said:

Which reminds me for some reason about a TV licence, it is the word 'Police' I think.

I kept on getting letters from the TV licence department stating I do not have a licence and I had to tell them why.

I had told them two years ago so why should I have to tell them again I though as I do not use their service as I use Netflix.

A few weeks later a guy came to the door to ask why I did not have a licence, I said I had already told them, he said it is against the law to watch the BBC etc without a licence.

I told him I know, I also know it is against the law to rob a bank or steal from a shop for example but I do not have to go and make a report to the police every year to tell them I have not done any of those things.

He gave up and went away.

I'm not sure what the requirement is for Netflix, but about 30 years I recall a case of "No TV licence" getting acquitted because he stated that he never watched TV, and his TV was used solely for viewing vids. 

Not sure if that would apply to Netflix. It would seem perverse that you don't need a licence to watch it on a lap top, but you might if you view it on a TV.

[JohninDublin]

39 minutes ago, JamesR said:

I see, I didn't see the update as of today as I do not sit and monitor it all day, my figures were based on previous numbers before they shifted the total population they count in their figures.

I am so pleased you now see the issues I've been posting about

[JamesR]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

I think you might have had an epiphany and are beginning to understand the problem.

I do not complain it's a bad number. This and the furlough scheme are some of the very few things that I think Bojo got right and they have certainly behaved creditably in the roll-out,

The problem I've been having all day, and not just with you, is that so many of the claims about "Our country has a better vax rate than yours", is most are clearly wrong, and often fail to compare like with like. The only real chance you have to do that is setting the same standard for all. "What is the population. How many have been vaxxed once? How many have been vaxxed twice?" is the only way of making accurate comparisons. That's why I use https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations as a a source for stats.

Cheers, I will have a look at that website tomorrow, it is now beer O clock in the UK.

[JamesR]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

I'm not sure what the requirement is for Netflix, but about 30 years I recall a case of "No TV licence" getting acquitted because he stated that he never watched TV, and his TV was used solely for viewing vids. 

Not sure if that would apply to Netflix. It would seem perverse that you don't need a licence to watch it on a lap top, but you might if you view it on a TV.

The rule over the last few years is if you do not watch the BBC, ITV, on any computer or TV or ITVPlayer, or BBCiPlayer then you do not need a licence.

If you watch private companies like Netflix or Now tv for example you also do not need one, the licence is there to pay for the BBC to make their own programs and to support the BBC news's left wing stance in its news reports. 

[Dasoba]

13 hours ago, Poolie said:

Right, my mistake.

You made it up then?

I was explaining my interpretation of their actions and comments. Sort of like, read between the lines. I guess if English is not your first language you may have difficulty understanding this concept.

[Andrew Reeve]

Hi Folks

We are way off topic and lets get back to discussing the subject of the thread, please.

Tourism calls for Russia and India to be added to safe list

[Guest1]

13 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

Regardless of where the people are located, in percentage terms, OZ are well ahead India in regard to vaxxing.

Yep, it is a really hairy situation, in india

[Poolie]

9 hours ago, Dasoba said:

I was explaining my interpretation of their actions and comments. Sort of like, read between the lines. I guess if English is not your first language you may have difficulty understanding this concept.

So your reading between the lines isn't filling in the bits that aren't published? Sort of like?

And that isn't made up?

 

[billywillyjones]

They have been chirping about how Russia and India will save the tourist season then they exclude them lol.  These guys have no clure what they are doing...

[Poolie]

14 minutes ago, billywillyjones said:

They have been chirping about how Russia and India will save the tourist season then they exclude them lol.  These guys have no clure what they are doing...

Yes at present, but the situation changes fast and who knows what policy decision will be made in the coming weeks?

[Tim]

On 10/25/2021 at 8:28 AM, YesNoMaybe said:

OK, whos calmest, politest tourist in Thailand then?

Becouse i know they are not british(seen them in Benidorm in natural habitat)

Deffo not russians 

Not indians 

Absolutely not chinese

Prolly japanese, maybe germans.

So, are u german or japanese?

Belgian, Dutch, Scandinavian, French, Spaniards, you can add these nationalities to the list of good behaving people. Indians are peasants really.

[EdwardV]

On 10/25/2021 at 8:59 PM, billywillyjones said:

They have been chirping about how Russia and India will save the tourist season then they exclude them lol.  These guys have no clure what they are doing...

Except they are not excluded. They just have to enter through the sandbox scheme. Only difference is one extra test, and the requirement to stay in your initial city for 7 days (unless you wish to return home early). Depending on which sandbox city you choose, that 7 day requirement might be moot. 

[JamesR]

2 hours ago, Tim said:

Belgian, Dutch, Scandinavian, French, Spaniards, you can add these nationalities to the list of good behaving people. Indians are peasants really.

Well knowing a Thai person who worked at the reception desk in a nice hotel in Thailand for twenty years, you can take the French off your list as they are arrogant and demanding, and replace them with Brits, the arse-Brits type go to Spain and the OK Brits go to other places including Thailand.  

Oh and thankfully many arse-Brits emigrate to Australia, we should pay the Ozzies for that.

I went to Spain once, it was full of arse-Brits, never again. 

Indians are peasants ? They have nuclear weapons and build satellites going into space, the country which invented or discovered the number 0 depending on your point of view which changed maths for ever. 

Oh and they invented the board game chess as well. 

[Soidog]

On 10/25/2021 at 10:16 AM, JohninDubin said:

Well when you consider that some of those tourists will be coming from the UK where the infection rate is 4X that of TH, you might consider that they are safer in TH than at home.

And the testing rate is 15 to 20 times higher in the UK compared to Thailand. The more you test, the more you find. Be interesting to see how many cases were found doing 800,000 random daily tests countrywide in Thailand. What do we reckon? 100,000? 150,000….?

[Mazz11]

On 10/25/2021 at 2:28 PM, YesNoMaybe said:

OK, whos calmest, politest tourist in Thailand then?

Becouse i know they are not british(seen them in Benidorm in natural habitat)

Deffo not russians 

Not indians 

Absolutely not chinese

Prolly japanese, maybe germans.

So, are u german or japanese?

I believe that it is up to the individual to treat people with respect. When you are a guest in another country you should treat the people as if you are in their home. Because that is basically what you are doing, visiting their home.

Unfortunately I have seen many instances of tourists from several different countries treating locals as lesser because they have a thicker wallet, and I have called out many of them for their behavior. Fortunately most of them realize that they are acting poorly and pull their heads in. 

Treat all with respect and we will all have a happier world to live in.

[JamesR]

27 minutes ago, Soidog said:

And the testing rate is 15 to 20 times higher in the UK compared to Thailand. The more you test, the more you find. Be interesting to see how many cases were found doing 800,000 random daily tests countrywide in Thailand. What do we reckon? 100,000? 150,000….?

And we have been open in the UK for months now, what is going to happen in Thailand when they open up next week, a country of mostly unvaccinated locals.

I know, the number of infections will stay the same as still no testing to any degree going on, that will be OK then I suppose.

 

[hpdrifter]

7 hours ago, JamesR said:

Well knowing a Thai person who worked at the reception desk in a nice hotel in Thailand for twenty years, you can take the French off your list as they are arrogant and demanding, and replace them with Brits, the arse-Brits type go to Spain and the OK Brits go to other places including Thailand.  

Oh and thankfully many arse-Brits emigrate to Australia, we should pay the Ozzies for that.

I went to Spain once, it was full of arse-Brits, never again. 

"Indians are peasants ? They have nuclear weapons and ... invented or discovered the number 0 ... etc. etc.

"They" meaning a few individuals from the God-like superior Brahmin class invented all those things. While billions of other Indians remained self-absorbed religious chauvinists, with the Untouchable class assigned in perpetuity to cleaning the sewers etc., forced to live ignorant lives.

[JohninDublin]

9 hours ago, Soidog said:

And the testing rate is 15 to 20 times higher in the UK compared to Thailand. The more you test, the more you find. Be interesting to see how many cases were found doing 800,000 random daily tests countrywide in Thailand. What do we reckon? 100,000? 150,000….?

We keep having this same debate don't we.  I am not sure what you are talking about regarding "800K daily tests" so I won't get into that other than to ask, are you suggesting that they carried out this number of tests daily and then failed to disclose the results? But if I've understood the question, even if these produced 150k undisclosed cases, and if the tests were carried out daily, there must have been millions of them, that still gives TH 1.9 mill cases against the  UK's 8.9 mill

As I 've stated several times, I do no dispute that greater testing will produce more results. I only state that I don't believe that even if they tested to the level that the UK has, I don't believe that the TH figures would be massively different. You need to remember in putting forward you theory, TH had done a fairly good job already because of the measures they had taken at border controls. When Delta hit both countries at around the same time in April, by April 1st, TH had 29k infections. The UK had 4.3 mill The UK case rate was 150X higher. Similarly, the UK had 127k deaths, while TH had less than 100 in the same time-frame.

 

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

We keep having this same debate don't we.  I am not sure what you are talking about regarding "800K daily tests" so I won't get into that other than to ask, are you suggesting that they carried out this number of tests daily and then failed to disclose the results? But if I've understood the question, even if these produced 150k undisclosed cases, and if the tests were carried out daily, there must have been millions of them, that still gives TH 1.9 mill cases against the  UK's 8.9 mill

As I 've stated several times, I do no dispute that greater testing will produce more results. I only state that I don't believe that even if they tested to the level that the UK has, I don't believe that the TH figures would be massively different. You need to remember in putting forward you theory, TH had done a fairly good job already because of the measures they had taken at border controls. When Delta hit both countries at around the same time in April, by April 1st, TH had 29k infections. The UK had 4.3 mill The UK case rate was 150X higher. Similarly, the UK had 127k deaths, while TH had less than 100 in the same time-frame.

Sorry @JohninDubin perhaps I haven’t made myself clear. 
 

Im not talking of overall cumulative historical daily numbers of cases. What I’m talking about is actual daily cases now. 
 

The UK is testing around 800,000 people every single day, compared to around 40,000 a day in Thailand, as you can see from the attached graph. 
 

With the U.K. testing 800,000 and only finding 50,000 positive cases. It’s fair to say that if we only tested 400,000 we may find 25,000 cases and if we tested 100,000 a day we may find 6,000 cases. It won’t be a linear relationship but you get the gist. 
 

The opposite of course applies to Thailand. If they tested 80,000 a day they may find 15,000 cases. 200,000 test a day may find 25,000 cases and so on.  I’m not suggesting that if they did 10 times more tests, they would find 10 times more cases. It doesn’t work like that as we know. What I am saying is both in the past (certainly since April 2021) and to date, the daily snapshot of cases in Thailand is underestimated. Maybe by a factor of 3-5. Also bear in mind Thailand is yet to fully open. The U.K. has been open for some months and we have seen the impact of this. It is also the reason why overall, the impact of Covid in cases and deaths has been many more times worse in the U.K. than Thailand. The country was never locked down to the extent that Thailand was. Was that a right decision? Well not if you were one of the people who died. Was it the right decision to reduce the impact on the economy? Well yes it was. A combination of keeping things moving and supplementing  business and employees means they U.K. economy is predicted to return to pre-pandemic growth by the end of this year. The last estimate I saw for Thailand was end of next year.  
 

A key metric with regard to establishing a “safe” country is what’s called the Positivity Rate. This is the number of cases found as a percentage of tests conducted. For the U.K. this is around 6%. For Thailand it is around 20%-25%. This is aimed at stopping exactly what Thailand is doing. Testing relatively small numbers and claiming low Covid infection levels. 
 

Overall, my point is that you can not simply look at cases numbers without also looking at tests taken. If you take this to its limits, if you conduct no test, you will find no Covid cases.
 

 

[JohninDublin]

46 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Sorry @JohninDubin perhaps I haven’t made myself clear. 
 

Im not talking of overall cumulative historical daily numbers of cases. What I’m talking about is actual daily cases now. 
 

The UK is testing around 800,000 people every single day, compared to around 40,000 a day in Thailand, as you can see from the attached graph. 
 

With the U.K. testing 800,000 and only finding 50,000 positive cases. It’s fair to say that if we only tested 400,000 we may find 25,000 cases and if we tested 100,000 a day we may find 6,000 cases. It won’t be a linear relationship but you get the gist. 
 

The opposite of course applies to Thailand. If they tested 80,000 a day they may find 15,000 cases. 200,000 test a day may find 25,000 cases and so on.  I’m not suggesting that if they did 10 times more tests, they would find 10 times more cases. It doesn’t work like that as we know. What I am saying is both in the past (certainly since April 2021) and to date, the daily snapshot of cases in Thailand is underestimated. Maybe by a factor of 3-5. Also bear in mind Thailand is yet to fully open. The U.K. has been open for some months and we have seen the impact of this. It is also the reason why overall, the impact of Covid in cases and deaths has been many more times worse in the U.K. than Thailand. The country was never locked down to the extent that Thailand was. Was that a right decision? Well not if you were one of the people who died. Was it the right decision to reduce the impact on the economy? Well yes it was. A combination of keeping things moving and supplementing  business and employees means they U.K. economy is predicted to return to pre-pandemic growth by the end of this year. The last estimate I saw for Thailand was end of next year.  
 

A key metric with regard to establishing a “safe” country is what’s called the Positivity Rate. This is the number of cases found as a percentage of tests conducted. For the U.K. this is around 6%. For Thailand it is around 20%-25%. This is aimed at stopping exactly what Thailand is doing. Testing relatively small numbers and claiming low Covid infection levels. 
 

Overall, my point is that you can not simply look at cases numbers without also looking at tests taken. If you take this to its limits, if you conduct no test, you will find no Covid cases.
 

I am delighted to read your comment about linear relationship, as we can dispense with ratios. 

But I revert to the same argument that I've made in the past. The UK and TH had different reasons for testing. I believe the Thais were more inclined to seek testing when they were unwell. That is reflected in the chart that someone put up showing positive tests of 22-35%. In the UK, most tests were either mandatory tests of healthcare workers etc where you would expect their caution to pay off, or those who received a ping telling then they had been in close contact with an infected person. Overall, 97.5% of UK tests were negative. Had the UK adopted the same attitude to testing as TH did, there would been far fewer tests, but a greater percentage of positives. The position would of course be reversed had TH adopted the same attitude as the UK did to testing.

So all that really leaves us is guessing how much the TH figures would have been different, if they tested as frequently as the UK. All I can say to that is there are plenty of stats to show that the response of TH in attempting to suppress the virus, was well ahead of the UK, and this can be validated by the fact that while excess deaths were increasing in the UK, they were decreasing in TH. Come April, both TH and UK were hit by Delta, and at that stage, the trajectory of the virus in terms of growth begins to look similar, but TH has the advantage of starting from a much lower base.

It seems to me, your case is that if TH carried out the same number of tests as the UK, the number of cases in TH would be higher, or in the alternative, they would be a lot closer to UK stats. I have no hesitation in agreeing with the former, but in view of all the other data, especially the decline in excess deaths in TH, the opposite of which occurred in the UK, I find it impossible to believe that lack of testing by TH, could account for much the difference in the 7 mill additional cases reported by the UK.

For me, the issue remains the same, that the UK and TH approach to testing are and have always been different and that if one duplicated the other, we would still see much lower rates from TH.

[Soidog]

9 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

All I can say to that is there are plenty of stats to show that the response of TH in attempting to suppress the virus, was well ahead of the UK, and this can be validated by the fact that while excess deaths were increasing in the UK, they were decreasing in TH

Totally 100% agree. No doubt the initial response by Thailand suppressed the virus far far better than the U.K.  though that is a separate discussion as to why the two countries adopted a different containment strategy. However, it is without question that the actions taken by Thailand resulted in far far fewer cases than countries like Italy, U.K., Germany, US etc
 

 

11 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

It seems to me, your case is that if TH carried out the same number of tests as the UK, the number of cases in TH would be higher, or in the alternative, they would be a lot closer to UK stats.

They would be higher and could be as high as the U.K. is today. I did say that if they tested 10 times more it wouldn’t equate to 10 times as many cases found. But it would be far higher as they would detect asymptomatic cases which are equally as dangerous in terms of spreading the virus. I believe I said if Thailand was to test as many as the U.K. (20 times more) they would find 3-5 times as many cases as they do today. Perhaps 40,000 daily cases. 

 

14 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

For me, the issue remains the same, that the UK and TH approach to testing are and have always been different and that if one duplicated the other, we would still see much lower rates from TH.

Yes, again I totally agree. However it would still be a much higher number than it is today. I believe the 9,000 a day presented each and every day for some weeks is misleading and potentially deliberately misleading. It is giving many a false sense of security. 
 

Finally on testing I would say this about Thailand. Since August this year, their daily tests have been falling from around 60,000 a day to 30,000-40,000 a day. Let’s call it a 40% reduction in testing. Over the same period, it has seen a reduction in cases from around 20,000 a day in August to around 10,000 a day now. Coincidence? I’m a stickler for being clear between correlation and causation and halving tests may not be the reason for halving cases found. But…. 

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

Totally 100% agree. No doubt the initial response by Thailand suppressed the virus far far better than the U.K.  though that is a separate discussion as to why the two countries adopted a different containment strategy. However, it is without question that the actions taken by Thailand resulted in far far fewer cases than countries like Italy, U.K., Germany, US etc
 

They would be higher and could be as high as the U.K. is today. I did say that if they tested 10 times more it wouldn’t equate to 10 times as many cases found. But it would be far higher as they would detect asymptomatic cases which are equally as dangerous in terms of spreading the virus. I believe I said if Thailand was to test as many as the U.K. (20 times more) they would find 3-5 times as many cases as they do today. Perhaps 40,000 daily cases. 

Yes, again I totally agree. However it would still be a much higher number than it is today. I believe the 9,000 a day presented each and every day for some weeks is misleading and potentially deliberately misleading. It is giving many a false sense of security. 
 

Finally on testing I would say this about Thailand. Since August this year, their daily tests have been falling from around 60,000 a day to 30,000-40,000 a day. Let’s call it a 40% reduction in testing. Over the same period, it has seen a reduction in cases from around 20,000 a day in August to around 10,000 a day now. Coincidence? I’m a stickler for being clear between correlation and causation and halving tests may not be the reason for halving cases found. But…. 

The real problem that both of us have is quantifying the effect of asymptomatic on these figures. I've just googled it and came up with a variety of figures from 1.4% to 86%. Based on that, I'd say nobody has a clue as to what the real figure is. Here is just one example. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249090

All I can do in those circumstances is look for evidence that should be there and base my opinion on that. The most telling data, is that the weekly figures for excess deaths are down in TH, while they are up in the UK. If the "real" TH figures remotely resembled that of the UK I would have expected to see it reflected in the excess morbidity stats. That does not eliminate the possibility that deaths in TH may have been misdiagnosed, but it's the totality of the dead that still needs to be the comparator.

As to your implied suspicions about the reduction in testing, I'd begin by saying that TH have not been offering 9k new cases daily for several weeks. In the past 4 weeks the figures have been between 7700 and 11700. You mention about the reduction of testing. Is there any evidence that the gov are cutting back on testing? Or might another explanation be, that TH are getting on top of the problem, and that as less Thais are feeling unwell, less of them are seeking testing?

The prob I have with your final para, is that there is no evidence that the reduction in testing is gov policy. If it were, it would give much more credence to your theories.

I don't think you and I will ever agree on this issue. It's not that I have trust in the TH gov. It is that other evidence that should be there to support your case, just isn't there. All you really have is the difference in numbers tested. We both agree that TH did a far better than the UK in suppressing, the virus. Yet the UK has had three waves, while TH has only suffered one real wave that coincided with the easier transmissible Delta variant. The UK also suffered from this. Could yet another possible explanation for the differences be, while Bojo was busily reopening things, TH was still mainly in lockdown, and thus there was a much smaller reservoir for Delta to latch onto?

I'd be inclined to think that the main reason for the differences, were more likely related to the behaviours of the two different countries.