News Forum - Tourism calls for Russia and India to be added to safe list

[JamesR]

10 hours ago, hpdrifter said:

"They" meaning a few individuals from the God-like superior Brahmin class invented all those things. While billions of other Indians remained self-absorbed religious chauvinists, with the Untouchable class assigned in perpetuity to cleaning the sewers etc., forced to live ignorant lives.

No problem, those Indians will not be in Thailand anyway on holiday. 

Brahmins are the religious class, not scientific.

[Soidog]

5 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

The real problem that both of us have is quantifying the effect of asymptomatic on these figures. I've just googled it and came up with a variety of figures from 1.4% to 86%. Based on that, I'd say nobody has a clue as to what the real figure is. Here is just one example. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249090

All I can do in those circumstances is look for evidence that should be there and base my opinion on that. The most telling data, is that the weekly figures for excess deaths are down in TH, while they are up in the UK. If the "real" TH figures remotely resembled that of the UK I would have expected to see it reflected in the excess morbidity stats. That does not eliminate the possibility that deaths in TH may have been misdiagnosed, but it's the totality of the dead that still needs to be the comparator.

As to your implied suspicions about the reduction in testing, I'd begin by saying that TH have not been offering 9k new cases daily for several weeks. In the past 4 weeks the figures have been between 7700 and 11700. You mention about the reduction of testing. Is there any evidence that the gov are cutting back on testing? Or might another explanation be, that TH are getting on top of the problem, and that as less Thais are feeling unwell, less of them are seeking testing?

The prob I have with your final para, is that there is no evidence that the reduction in testing is gov policy. If it were, it would give much more credence to your theories.

I don't think you and I will ever agree on this issue. It's not that I have trust in the TH gov. It is that other evidence that should be there to support your case, just isn't there. All you really have is the difference in numbers tested. We both agree that TH did a far better than the UK in suppressing, the virus. Yet the UK has had three waves, while TH has only suffered one real wave that coincided with the easier transmissible Delta variant. The UK also suffered from this. Could yet another possible explanation for the differences be, while Bojo was busily reopening things, TH was still mainly in lockdown, and thus there was a much smaller reservoir for Delta to latch onto?

I'd be inclined to think that the main reason for the differences, were more likely related to the behaviours of the two different countries.

I think we are agreeing on more than we are recognising. I have no firm evidence of what the Thai testing strategy is. They may, as you say, only be testing people who feel symptoms. On the other hand, they claim to be mass testing factories, health workers and clusters where they have had known cases such as markets etc. I guess neither of us really know and hence it’s a pointless excerise in guessing. As I pointed out, it may be nothing more than a coincidence that having halved the tests (for whatever reason), it has found half the cases. There is also the question that if they are only testing people with symptoms, how on earth are they able to estimate the real picture of infections and hence make informed decisions of when to ease restrictions and open up? Without this valuable data, opening up seems even more of a gamble. 
 

When the U.K. made the decision to fully open up back in June July, and was testing nearly 1 million people a day, there were only 5,000 daily cases and 10-20 daily deaths. Vaccination rates were hitting 65% double dosed (almost twice what Thailand currently is). So with 5,000 daily cases and 20 deaths a day and 65% double vaccinated and 75% at least one dose, if you wouldn’t open then, when would you open?  It’s what’s happened since to the U.K. that Thailand and other countries should learn from. That lesson is - Open with less than 85% fully vaccinated with quality vaccines, and you are running a big risk that infections will climb and hospitalisations and deaths will climb. The U.K. healthcare system has more capacity to deal with serious ICU Covid cases than Thailand. If they are unlucky and this gets out of hand, the situation could be disastrous for the people and the economy.  I sincerely hope they get lucky and with the help of fine weather and better mask wearing, then maybe they will???

 

 

[JohninDublin]

11 hours ago, Soidog said:

I think we are agreeing on more than we are recognising. I have no firm evidence of what the Thai testing strategy is. They may, as you say, only be testing people who feel symptoms. On the other hand, they claim to be mass testing factories, health workers and clusters where they have had known cases such as markets etc. I guess neither of us really know and hence it’s a pointless excerise in guessing. As I pointed out, it may be nothing more than a coincidence that having halved the tests (for whatever reason), it has found half the cases. There is also the question that if they are only testing people with symptoms, how on earth are they able to estimate the real picture of infections and hence make informed decisions of when to ease restrictions and open up? Without this valuable data, opening up seems even more of a gamble. 
 

When the U.K. made the decision to fully open up back in June July, and was testing nearly 1 million people a day, there were only 5,000 daily cases and 10-20 daily deaths. Vaccination rates were hitting 65% double dosed (almost twice what Thailand currently is). So with 5,000 daily cases and 20 deaths a day and 65% double vaccinated and 75% at least one dose, if you wouldn’t open then, when would you open?  It’s what’s happened since to the U.K. that Thailand and other countries should learn from. That lesson is - Open with less than 85% fully vaccinated with quality vaccines, and you are running a big risk that infections will climb and hospitalisations and deaths will climb. The U.K. healthcare system has more capacity to deal with serious ICU Covid cases than Thailand. If they are unlucky and this gets out of hand, the situation could be disastrous for the people and the economy.  I sincerely hope they get lucky and with the help of fine weather and better mask wearing, then maybe they will???

 

All we are really agreeing on, is that more more testing will produce more cases. What we can't agree on is how many undiagnosed cases there are in TH. I've looked at the research into asymptomatic cases as an explanation. This would fit with my theory that Thais are more inclined to get tested when they feel unwell as well as support your idea of undiagnosed cases. The problem is, that there have been multiple studies of this and the conclusions are all over the place, from just over 1% to 84%. Plenty say 20% and there are many that say 80%.  Those figures are just to crazy to be offered in evidence.

The only other thing I can think of is "excess deaths". But let's assume for a moment, that 80% of UK cases are asymptomatic and that would explain the difference, because very few such cases would be picked up if my theory about TH testing is correct. You now have comparing "like for like" 1.8 mill cases in TH and 1.9 mill in the UK. For the sake of my next point, lets say the figures are identical. Turning to deaths, the UK death rate is still 7.5X that of TH.

That then raises the question, could the Thais have misdiagnosed 85% of all covid deaths? Anything is possible, but we should be seeing an uptick in excess deaths in TH because that is 120k bodies that need to be disposed of. But instead, whereas the UK excess deaths did increase as would have been expected, the TH figures went down. Some of the fall in TH rates can be explained by the lower road death toll, but even if nobody was killed on the roads, you still need to find the best part of 100k excess deaths in TH to make that work, and they just aren't there.

I think a more likely explanation for the radical difference in the stats, can be summed up in two words; Boris Johnson

[Bob20]

45 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

All we are really agreeing on, is that more more testing will produce more cases. What we can't agree on is how many undiagnosed cases there are in TH. I've looked at the research into asymptomatic cases as an explanation. This would fit with my theory that Thais are more inclined to get tested when they feel unwell as well as support your idea of undiagnosed cases. The problem is, that there have been multiple studies of this and the conclusions are all over the place, from just over 1% to 84%. Plenty say 20% and there are many that say 80%.  Those figures are just to crazy to be offered in evidence.

The only other thing I can think of is "excess deaths". But let's assume for a moment, that 80% of UK cases are asymptomatic and that would explain the difference, because very few such cases would be picked up if my theory about TH testing is correct. You now have comparing "like for like" 1.8 mill cases in TH and 1.9 mill in the UK. For the sake of my next point, lets say the figures are identical. Turning to deaths, the UK death rate is still 7.5X that of TH.

That then raises the question, could the Thais have misdiagnosed 85% of all covid deaths? Anything is possible, but we should be seeing an uptick in excess deaths in TH because that is 120k bodies that need to be disposed of. But instead, whereas the UK excess deaths did increase as would have been expected, the TH figures went down. Some of the fall in TH rates can be explained by the lower road death toll, but even if nobody was killed on the roads, you still need to find the best part of 100k excess deaths in TH to make that work, and they just aren't there.

I think a more likely explanation for the radical difference in the stats, can be summed up in two words; Boris Johnson

No, more testing doesn't produce more cases. It produces more reported cases.

The keyword you're looking for is:

Randomisation

Without that you will never know what is happening within a population.

Relatively small and focused samples like in Thailand are much more likely to give a distorted view of the general situation than larger ones.

And when reported cases are going down, whereas we know there were lots of positive cases in uncounted ATK's (so the actual case numbers are in fact going up!), strange occurrences like reducing deaths in that situation should be scrutinised. Especially when it's illogical but strangely seems to fit the government's narrative.

[JohninDublin]

6 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

No, more testing doesn't produce more cases. It produces more reported cases.

The keyword you're looking for is:

Randomisation

Without that you will never know what is happening within a population.

Relatively small and focused samples like in Thailand are much more likely to give a distorted view of the general situation than larger ones.

And when reported cases are going down, whereas we know there were lots of positive cases in uncounted ATK's (so the actual case numbers are in fact going up!), strange occurrences like reducing deaths in that situation should be scrutinised. Especially when it's illogical but strangely seems to fit the government's narrative.

Whether it is illogical or not appears to based on how sceptical you are about the honesty of the TH gov. Whether or not you trust them, it does not mean that they are lying or telling the truth.

But an extra 100k deaths would go a long way to supporting your opinion, and they just are not there. So if the tendency is not to believe the gov, then it supposes that the gov have hidden these 100k deaths. I am not accusing of being a conspiracy theorist, but this is a 1000 deaths a week since this started, and with all the people who have access to this data, I'd expect a whistle-blower would have come forward by now. It's the old story, the bigger the conspiracy, the more likely it is to fail.

We've seen how Wuhan's figures do not stack to corroboration. Surely if there were 100k deaths that went unrecorded by the TH gov, this would show up in the issue of death certificates. I presume that you do need a cert to dispose of a corpse in TH? What about undertakers?  If the stats were about 100k unrecorded deaths, surely they would be aware of these? They usually have trade associations so you can see how easy it is to compare figures.

Several years ago in Ireland, we had a claim by the then Justice Minister that they had increased breath-testing by a massive amount. He soon had to back-track on that when the manufacturer of the mouth-pieces for the tests, reported that this was 2X as many mouth-pieces as they had been supplied with. 

I don't say your theories are wrong, but I do say that there is no evidence to say that they are right.

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, JohninDubin said:

Whether it is illogical or not appears to based on how sceptical you are about the honesty of the TH gov. Whether or not you trust them, it does not mean that they are lying or telling the truth.

But an extra 100k deaths would go a long way to supporting your opinion, and they just are not there. So if the tendency is not to believe the gov, then it supposes that the gov have hidden these 100k deaths. I am not accusing of being a conspiracy theorist, but this is a 1000 deaths a week since this started, and with all the people who have access to this data, I'd expect a whistle-blower would have come forward by now. It's the old story, the bigger the conspiracy, the more likely it is to fail.

We've seen how Wuhan's figures do not stack to corroboration. Surely if there were 100k deaths that went unrecorded by the TH gov, this would show up in the issue of death certificates. I presume that you do need a cert to dispose of a corpse in TH? What about undertakers?  If the stats were about 100k unrecorded deaths, surely they would be aware of these? They usually have trade associations so you can see how easy it is to compare figures.

Several years ago in Ireland, we had a claim by the then Justice Minister that they had increased breath-testing by a massive amount. He soon had to back-track on that when the manufacturer of the mouth-pieces for the tests, reported that this was 2X as many mouth-pieces as they had been supplied with. 

I don't say your theories are wrong, but I do say that there is no evidence to say that they are right.

I've not mentioned 100k extra deaths, but have said that we should compare monthly or quarterly deaths with pre-pandemic figures. 

And we do know for sure that the case numbers are fudged, simply because ATK's are done in government test stations, but are then not counted in the reported numbers (they are limited to PCR results). So the approx. 9-10k daily numbers are in fact much higher, yet deaths strangely reduce in number. And the actual vaccination rate (even if you believe the government's stats) doesn't account for that yet.

So, even though you're right that it's all circumstantial, I'd err on the cautious side rather than believe all the official statements, which quite often contradict each other anyway.

[JohninDublin]

22 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

I've not mentioned 100k extra deaths, but have said that we should compare monthly or quarterly deaths with pre-pandemic figures. 

And we do know for sure that the case numbers are fudged, simply because ATK's are done in government test stations, but are then not counted in the reported numbers (they are limited to PCR results). So the approx. 9-10k daily numbers are in fact much higher, yet deaths strangely reduce in number. And the actual vaccination rate (even if you believe the government's stats) doesn't account for that yet.

So, even though you're right that it's all circumstantial, I'd err on the cautious side rather than believe all the official statements, which quite often contradict each other anyway.

Regarding 100K extra deaths, that is what I would expect to find if, as you claim, equivalent testing in TH would show reported cases being more in line with the UK. 

As for comparing monthly/quarterly figures with pre-pandemic figures, that is pretty much how those figures are calculated. They take the average number of deaths for a period of say one week/month/quarter over the past 5 years and that becomes the "expected deaths" in the same corresponding period.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

You can compile your own comparison of the UK on this site. It's only in recent months that TH excess deaths have consistently been ahead of the UK and that can be explained by the arrival of Delta, and the comparative differences in vax rates.

I should add that the data-points are not precise because the UK figures are weekly, and TH monthly.

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, JohninDubin said:

Regarding 100K extra deaths, that is what I would expect to find if, as you claim, equivalent testing in TH would show reported cases being more in line with the UK. 

As for comparing monthly/quarterly figures with pre-pandemic figures, that is pretty much how those figures are calculated. They take the average number of deaths for a period of say one week/month/quarter over the past 5 years and that becomes the "expected deaths" in the same corresponding period.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

You can compile your own comparison of the UK on this site. It's only in recent months that TH excess deaths have consistently been ahead of the UK and that can be explained by the arrival of Delta, and the comparative differences in vax rates.

Point taken, but I'm not claiming the countries are comparable. You can take that up with @Soidog, I bet he'll be thrilled.

I'm simply saying testing isn't random, reported figures are too low (because of exclusion of positive ATK results at the cost of a much lower number of PCR tests) and deaths are not matching the case numbers at all. I'm not even drawing definite conclusions, but the weirdness of it all strangely aligns with the government's plans... That's worth looking into in detail with their track record.

[JohninDublin]

14 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Point taken, but I'm not claiming the countries are comparable. You can take that up with @Soidog, I bet he'll be thrilled.

I'm simply saying testing isn't random, reported figures are too low (because of exclusion of positive ATK results at the cost of a much lower number of PCR tests) and deaths are not matching the case numbers at all. I'm not even drawing definite conclusions, but the weirdness of it all strangely aligns with the government's plans... That's worth looking into in detail with their track record.

I still detect a strong tone of distrust of the TH gov in your post. I can't say I blame you, but I am still struggling to find anything suspicious that would explain the huge difference in TH and UK death tolls. 

Like yourself, I don't have too much faith in the integrity of the TH gov, but I can't find any evidence to call them out on.

[Bob20]

Just now, JohninDubin said:

I still detect a strong tone of distrust of the TH gov in your post. I can't say I blame you, but I am still struggling to find anything suspicious that would explain the huge difference in TH and UK death tolls. 

Like yourself, I don't have too much faith in the integrity of the TH gov, but I can't find any evidence to call them out on.

Well, I see rising actual case numbers when taking ATK results into account, but faster than expected lower death rates, so that's unusual.

But I'm happy to wait for the stats to compare with pre-covid.

And it wouldn't surprise me at all if they blame someone later for accidentally not adhering to the international rules for reporting Covid deaths, or doing those tests with ATK as well and not officially including them.

Time will tell.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Well, I see rising actual case numbers when taking ATK results into account, but faster than expected lower death rates, so that's unusual.

But I'm happy to wait for the stats to compare with pre-covid.

And it wouldn't surprise me at all if they blame someone later for accidentally not adhering to the international rules for reporting Covid deaths, or doing those tests with ATK as well and not officially including them.

Time will tell.

Good conversation @Bob20 and @JohninDubin .  I think the point about believing the official figures is one we could debate until the cows come home. 
 

However, looking at the excess deaths data that you supplied John, doesn’t that give you the evidence you need to show Covid deaths are being under reported? There were 506,000 deaths of all causes in Thailand in 2019 which is approximately 42,000 per month (won’t be equally distributed I know). Since June to date, Thailand has been showing approximately 15-18% excess deaths compared to previous years. This equates to around an additional 6,325 death per month compared to previous years or an additional 210 per day. Over the last few weeks Thailand has been officially reporting approximately 70-90 Covid deaths per day. What is causing the missing 120-140 additonal deaths per day, if not Covid?  Add to this that underlying road deaths of around 63/day must have reduced somewhat due to less travel and less alcohol, and another 20 daily deaths could be added to that 120-140 (let’s call it 130). This all feels like there is a missing number of around 150 (130+20 from road fatalities) deaths per day in the Covid figures, taking the real number to more like 80+150= 230 Covid deaths per day rather than the 80 being reported. This is in line with the 2-3 times more cases and deaths than I estimated. I think all the evidence you need that deaths are far higher and hence cases are all being well under reported. 
 

I think comparisons with another country is almost impossible as we start to get in reporting Windows and other definitions. That is a discussion for another topic. 
 

My estimate of real cases if you were to do randomised testing and include PCR and ATK test would show nearer 150,000 cases per day and deaths of 200 per day

 

Sorry, I may have included the actually figure of 80 reported twice in the above bringing them number to 150 per day though even that is based on only 15% excess deaths and the latest reported number was 20% and was as high as 37%. 
 

Whatever the real number is yesterday, it certainly wasn’t the official 64. More like 2-3 times that, and if taking a 28 day window as the U.K. does, that could add another 20-50 on to it. 
 

In summary it’s misleading. Overly optimistic and supported by other information such as ICU beds being full in CM and no doubt elsewhere. What a gamble the Thais are taking if they open Nightlife such as enclosed bars and clubs. I don’t think they will. They may let restaurants serve alcohol but surely not open bars and clubs on November 1st 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Soidog
Additonal comments

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Good conversation @Bob20 and @JohninDubin .  I think the point about believing the official figures is one we could debate until the cows come home. 
 

However, looking at the excess deaths data that you supplied John, doesn’t that give you the evidence you need to show Covid deaths are being under reported? There were 506,000 deaths of all causes in Thailand in 2019 which is approximately 42,000 per month (won’t be equally distributed I know). Since June to date, Thailand has been showing approximately 15-18% excess deaths compared to previous years. This equates to around an additional 6,325 death per month compared to previous years or an additional 210 per day. Over the last few weeks Thailand has been officially reporting approximately 70-90 Covid deaths per day. What is causing the missing 120-140 additonal deaths per day, if not Covid?  Add to this that underlying road deaths of around 63/day must have reduced somewhat due to less travel and less alcohol, and another 20 daily deaths could be added to that 120-140 (let’s call it 130). This all feels like there is a missing number of around 150 (130+20 from road fatalities) deaths per day in the Covid figures, taking the real number to more like 80+150= 230 Covid deaths per day rather than the 80 being reported. This is in line with the 2-3 times more cases and deaths than I estimated. I think all the evidence you need that deaths are far higher and hence cases are all being well under reported. 
 

I think comparisons with another country is almost impossible as we start to get in reporting Windows and other definitions. That is a discussion for another topic. 
 

My estimate of real cases if you were to do randomised testing and include PCR and ATK test would show nearer 150,000 cases per day and deaths of 200 per day

I'd been patiently waiting until end of 4th quarter to get the data, but didn't see them available to date yet.

Well, there you go... That's what I had been assuming for some time based on circumstantial evidence alone (and on occasion being bashed for it).

Seeing it laid out like that, there's clearly more to it. Thank you!

[JohninDublin]

7 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Well, I see rising actual case numbers when taking ATK results into account, but faster than expected lower death rates, so that's unusual.

But I'm happy to wait for the stats to compare with pre-covid.

And it wouldn't surprise me at all if they blame someone later for accidentally not adhering to the international rules for reporting Covid deaths, or doing those tests with ATK as well and not officially including them.

Time will tell.

If the "stats2, you referring to are "excess deaths" as I explained, these are based on the comparative reference point based on the past 5 years. So the figures you are seeing are compared to the 5 year average of each month for TH, or week for UK.

[JohninDublin]

2 hours ago, Soidog said:

Good conversation @Bob20 and @JohninDubin .  I think the point about believing the official figures is one we could debate until the cows come home. 
 

However, looking at the excess deaths data that you supplied John, doesn’t that give you the evidence you need to show Covid deaths are being under reported? There were 506,000 deaths of all causes in Thailand in 2019 which is approximately 42,000 per month (won’t be equally distributed I know). Since June to date, Thailand has been showing approximately 15-18% excess deaths compared to previous years. This equates to around an additional 6,325 death per month compared to previous years or an additional 210 per day. Over the last few weeks Thailand has been officially reporting approximately 70-90 Covid deaths per day. What is causing the missing 120-140 additonal deaths per day, if not Covid?  Add to this that underlying road deaths of around 63/day must have reduced somewhat due to less travel and less alcohol, and another 20 daily deaths could be added to that 120-140 (let’s call it 130). This all feels like there is a missing number of around 150 (130+20 from road fatalities) deaths per day in the Covid figures, taking the real number to more like 80+150= 230 Covid deaths per day rather than the 80 being reported. This is in line with the 2-3 times more cases and deaths than I estimated. I think all the evidence you need that deaths are far higher and hence cases are all being well under reported. 
 

I think comparisons with another country is almost impossible as we start to get in reporting Windows and other definitions. That is a discussion for another topic. 
 

My estimate of real cases if you were to do randomised testing and include PCR and ATK test would show nearer 150,000 cases per day and deaths of 200 per day

Sorry, I may have included the actually figure of 80 reported twice in the above bringing them number to 150 per day though even that is based on only 15% excess deaths and the latest reported number was 20% and was as high as 37%. 
 

Whatever the real number is yesterday, it certainly wasn’t the official 64. More like 2-3 times that, and if taking a 28 day window as the U.K. does, that could add another 20-50 on to it. 
 

In summary it’s misleading. Overly optimistic and supported by other information such as ICU beds being full in CM and no doubt elsewhere. What a gamble the Thais are taking if they open Nightlife such as enclosed bars and clubs. I don’t think they will. They may let restaurants serve alcohol but surely not open bars and clubs on November 1st 

You've actually raised an interesting point there. Without relying on your figures, I had a different approach which was to count the excess deaths since Apr 1st as both countries appeared to suffer a similar shaped curve when Delta struck. I've come up with 40K excess deaths in that time, while TH has declared a mere 19k total deaths from all CV cases. That does not look right, and with the greatest respect to @Bob20that looks like the smoking gun.

I am not looking to save face, but I've always said if the figures were being falsified, there would be evidence. I cannot think of any explanation for this discrepancy, and therefore I am inclined to agree the figures since April 1st (at least) appear to be bogus. I hope nobody thinks I am grudgingly conceding this point, but my hesitancy is because there may be an explanation for this anomaly that I cannot yet think of.

[Soidog]

50 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

You've actually raised an interesting point there. Without relying on your figures, I had a different approach which was to count the excess deaths since Apr 1st as both countries appeared to suffer a similar shaped curve when Delta struck. I've come up with 40K excess deaths in that time, while TH has declared a mere 19k total deaths from all CV cases. That does not look right, and with the greatest respect to @Bob20that looks like the smoking gun.

I am not looking to save face, but I've always said if the figures were being falsified, there would be evidence. I cannot think of any explanation for this discrepancy, and therefore I am inclined to agree the figures since April 1st (at least) appear to be bogus. I hope nobody thinks I am grudgingly conceding this point, but my hesitancy is because there may be an explanation for this anomaly that I cannot yet think of.

Yes I think the excess deaths are the clue to this. As you say, there could be some other strange anomaly, though the most likely cause is Covid. 
 

As I mentioned in a previous post, you also have to factor other “normal” underlying deaths such as road accidents that would have fallen due to lockdown which will add to the baseline number on which excess deaths are calculated. If we said road deaths had fallen by 20%, then that adds another 12 each day potentially. A small amount, but there may be other examples which slowly nudge up the real Covid figures. 
 

Irrespective of the real number, I feel it’s just too soon to be opening high risk venue like enclosed nightlife venues. 
 

Thanks for the discussion

[JohninDublin]

48 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Yes I think the excess deaths are the clue to this. As you say, there could be some other strange anomaly, though the most likely cause is Covid. 
 

As I mentioned in a previous post, you also have to factor other “normal” underlying deaths such as road accidents that would have fallen due to lockdown which will add to the baseline number on which excess deaths are calculated. If we said road deaths had fallen by 20%, then that adds another 12 each day potentially. A small amount, but there may be other examples which slowly nudge up the real Covid figures. 
 

Irrespective of the real number, I feel it’s just too soon to be opening high risk venue like enclosed nightlife venues. 
 

Thanks for the discussion

Just one minor correction to your post. The expected deaths are averaged over  years. As this is only the second year (incomplete), the decline in road deaths would not be as significant as you suggest.

Regradless I think you have good reason to have doubts about the figures.

[JohninDublin]

4 hours ago, Bob20 said:

I'd been patiently waiting until end of 4th quarter to get the data, but didn't see them available to date yet.

Well, there you go... That's what I had been assuming for some time based on circumstantial evidence alone (and on occasion being bashed for it).

Seeing it laid out like that, there's clearly more to it. Thank you!

I don't think I ever bashed you. I only said or implied that there was nothing in your claims that amounted to evidence, because it could be explained away or you couldn't produce any figures to support your claims 

Regardless, it looks like you were right.

[Bob20]

41 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I don't think I ever bashed you. I only said or implied that there was nothing in your claims that amounted to evidence, because it could be explained away or you couldn't produce any figures to support your claims 

Regardless, it looks like you were right.

Thanks, that's considerate, but I wasn't referring to you John. Anyway, good detailed discussion.

[JohninDublin]

22 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Thanks, that's considerate, but I wasn't referring to you John. Anyway, good detailed discussion.

It really goes to show that as long as people are not over-invested in being "right", good data can change people's opinions.

[BigHewer]

16 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

It really goes to show that as long as people are not over-invested in being "right", good data can change people's opinions.

That’s a very good point, John. I actually changed my opinion on another topic here a day or two ago after engaging in some spirited discussion. But I was “somewhat invested” rather than “over-invested” on that particular issue.  Whether someone is over-invested or not depends on the viewpoint of the other side. I personally feel that those who are “over-invested” will simply double down when faced with data. And this is true of this topic, too.

[JohninDublin]

6 minutes ago, BigHewer said:

That’s a very good point, John. I actually changed my opinion on another topic here a day or two ago after engaging in some spirited discussion. But I was “somewhat invested” rather than “over-invested” on that particular issue.  Whether someone is over-invested or not depends on the viewpoint of the other side. I personally feel that those who are “over-invested” will simply double down when faced with data. And this is true of this topic, too.

For the "over invested", the payoff comes in denying evidence that may show them to be wrong. It's about saving face. I don't really understand it, because we are are pretty much anonymised.  It's not as if when they walk out the door, someone says, "There goes that idiot that keeps arguing that the earth is flat instead of agreeing with the conclusive evidence that is presented to to him. Everyone knows that he is only doing to it to save face". That in turn leads to the irony, that because everyone knows that they are trying to save face, they are really losing face.