News Forum - Covid-19 cases are rising, not falling – CCSA infection numbers called into doubt

[Soidog]

2 minutes ago, JamesR said:

I have been saying the figures have been fiddled with over the last year and stating this on thaiger but was knocked down with comments saying I had no proof

Not sure who knocked down your comments? Most reasonable members would have agreed. Obviously the guy from Issan who likes to play the Forum Lawyer may have picked holes in your logical testimony, but no sane and reasonable person would have. 
 

With regard to the U.K. red list and insurance. I obviously don’t know the details of your policy, however most insurance policies are only invalidated if you travel against FCDO advice. Even when Thailand was on the red list, the FCDO didn’t advise against travel to Thailand. For example, compare the following relating to FCDO for Afghanistan to a Covid red list country such as Colombia:

 

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advises against all travel to Afghanistan. You should not travel to Afghanistan. 
 

 

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advise against all but essential travel to the whole of Colombia based on the current assessment of COVID-19 risks.
 

The key words being ALL and ESSENTIAL.  Clearly your insurance company may define a “holiday” as unessential, but they would need to specify the advice from the FCDO in the policy. Many do, though many don’t. And some companies (Staysure being one) explicitly offer insurance even to Red list countries. See link: https://www.staysure.co.uk/2021/07/travel-insurance-amber-red-list/

 

 

 

[Bob20]

4 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Not sure who knocked down your comments? Most reasonable members would have agreed. Obviously the guy from Issan who likes to play the Forum Lawyer may have picked holes in your logical testimony, but no sane and reasonable person would have. 

Come on Soidog. You know who The same that knocked yours and mine, until they recently changed their views as well!

[Soidog]

9 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Come on Soidog. You know who The same that knocked yours and mine, until they recently changed their views as well!

Really @Bob20, I’m racking my memory to try and remember. I’ve not seen The Issan Lawyer on this forum for a long long time. So it can’t be him you are referring to. 
 

I do note a number of people who back last year prior to the Tong Lor/Songkran fiasco, believed Thailand had achieved a miracle and it was safe to open and then changed their mind. However, that’s a perfectly acceptable thing to do

[semrand753]

 

From the start, the reported numbers of cases have been and still are PCR-based (which is appropriate since there's no PCR-testing capacity problem).

Comparing current ATK's + PCR's to earlier PCR's is naïve:

1. mostly because different measurements are then compared as if they belong to the same metric, but also because of
2. double-counting: many ATK positives are followed up by a PCR-test that is likely to be positive, and
3. there's a nation-wide distribution of ATK's going on, so cases that would have been undetected before are more likely to be detected now. 

The number of ATK-positives is going up (as to be expected) yet the number of PCR-positives is still going down. 

To me that indicates that it is more likely that the reported numbers reflect that the he actual number of cases is going down rather than that the reported numbers are fraudulent. The truth may lie somewhere in-between.

 

[Bob20]

11 minutes ago, semrand753 said:

From the start, the reported numbers of cases have been and still are PCR-based (which is appropriate since there's no PCR-testing capacity problem).

Comparing current ATK's + PCR's to earlier PCR's is naïve:

1. mostly because different measurements are then compared as if they belong to the same metric, but also because of
2. double-counting: many ATK positives are followed up by a PCR-test that is likely to be positive, and
3. there's a nation-wide distribution of ATK's going on, so cases that would have been undetected before are more likely to be detected now. 

The number of ATK-positives is going up (as to be expected) yet the number of PCR-positives is still going down. 

To me that indicates that it is more likely that the reported numbers reflect that the he actual number of cases is going down rather than that the reported numbers are fraudulent. The truth may lie somewhere in-between.

Sorry, but your point 2 and 3 are completely wrong.

If done at a test-site, positive ATK-results are sent home and not PCR retested. This in contrast to positive PCR tests going to hospital.

The nationwide distribution for private use isn't in any way recorded and neither are the results. Likely, those that test positive will section themselves and only call in medical help if they have symptoms.

They don't do half that number of PCR's from before and the ATK's are not at all added, which gives a totally skewed result that you can't compare to the previous numbers and certainly can't decide that the figures are going down.

[semrand753]

8 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Sorry, but your point 2 and 3 are completely wrong.

If done at a test-site, positive ATK-results are sent home and not PCR retested. This in contrast to positive PCR tests going to hospital.

The nationwide distribution for private use isn't in any way recorded and neither are the results. Likely, those that test positive will section themselves and only call in medical help if they have symptoms.

They don't do half that number of PCR's from before and the ATK's are not at all added, which gives a totally skewed result that you can't compare to the previous numbers and certainly can't decide that the figures are going down.

1. Fair enough: my point 2 is possibly wrong (I don't have the figures to back that one up; I was just being optimistic).

2. If I suspected I was infected, I'd act the same (isolate myself at home, which wouldn't show up in figures).

3. Isn't that just my and your point 1 combined?

[Soidog]

3 minutes ago, semrand753 said:

1. Fair enough: my point 2 is possibly wrong (I don't have the figures to back that one up; I was just being optimistic).

2. If I suspected I was infected, I'd act the same (isolate myself at home, which wouldn't show up in figures).

3. Isn't that just my and your point 1 combined?

If Thailand is issuing ATK nationwide, they now need to reset their reporting to provide a full picture. Not to do so is a missed opportunity for medics and politicians to make the correct decisions to control future spikes in cases. All it is doing is allowing individuals to know if they are positive and then hopefully do the right thing and stay home. The U.K. did a major adjustment in its testing and reporting back in April/May 2020. At this peak there were around 5,000 cases a day. Following the mass testing and reporting, the second spike cases were 60,000. Actual numbers are not that important. It’s how they change following the actions you take to control the virus. 

[Bob20]

2 minutes ago, semrand753 said:

1. Fair enough: my point 2 is possibly wrong (I don't have the figures to back that one up; I was just being optimistic).

2. If I suspected I was infected, I'd act the same (isolate myself at home, which wouldn't show up in figures).

3. Isn't that just my and your point 1 combined?

Ad 3) no, because even though + PCR's go to hospital, many will be symptomless. But that doesn't matter as the number doesn't show people with symptoms but reflects the number of infections.

if instead you look only at people that report with symptoms after an ATK test, that number is much smaller (ignoring the symptomless that were infected) and therefore not comparable with how the counting was done previously.

There's a reason they went ahead with the purchase of ATK's of doubtful quality and why they are not counting them.

It adds to the smoke and mirrors....

Fortunately it's not just a few members here suggesting it (and attacked for it by other members). Now the countries doctors are saying so too. I would suggest they have a good idea what is going on at ground level.

[JamesR]

9 hours ago, Soidog said:

Not sure who knocked down your comments? Most reasonable members would have agreed. Obviously the guy from Issan who likes to play the Forum Lawyer may have picked holes in your logical testimony, but no sane and reasonable person would have. 
 

With regard to the U.K. red list and insurance. I obviously don’t know the details of your policy, however most insurance policies are only invalidated if you travel against FCDO advice. Even when Thailand was on the red list, the FCDO didn’t advise against travel to Thailand. For example, compare the following relating to FCDO for Afghanistan to a Covid red list country such as Colombia:

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advises against all travel to Afghanistan. You should not travel to Afghanistan. 
 

The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advise against all but essential travel to the whole of Colombia based on the current assessment of COVID-19 risks.
 

The key words being ALL and ESSENTIAL.  Clearly your insurance company may define a “holiday” as unessential, but they would need to specify the advice from the FCDO in the policy. Many do, though many don’t. And some companies (Staysure being one) explicitly offer insurance even to Red list countries. See link: https://www.staysure.co.uk/2021/07/travel-insurance-amber-red-list/

Thanks. I will have a look at your insurance link. And yes it was the bloke from Issan who tried to knock my previous comments on false  virus figures. 
 

but he does make me laugh. 

[JamesR]

9 hours ago, Soidog said:

Really @Bob20, I’m racking my memory to try and remember. I’ve not seen The Issan Lawyer on this forum for a long long time. So it can’t be him you are referring to. 
 

I do note a number of people who back last year prior to the Tong Lor/Songkran fiasco, believed Thailand had achieved a miracle and it was safe to open and then changed their mind. However, that’s a perfectly acceptable thing to do

 
Note:  We do not talk about members names 

 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Andrew Reeve
Note:  We do not talk about members names 

[Soidog]

4 minutes ago, JamesR said:

Thanks. I will have a look at your insurance link. And yes it was the bloke from Issan who tried to knock my previous comments on false  virus figures. 
 

but he does make me laugh. 

Good to hear

[JamesR]

9 hours ago, Bob20 said:

Come on Soidog. You know who The same that knocked yours and mine, until they recently changed their views as well!

Note:  We do not talk about members names 

[Soidog]

19 minutes ago, JamesR said:

Note:  We do not talk about members names 

I did mention last year that Thais must have magic blood etc due to the low reported virus figures but of course Issan John knew better. 

Yes I recall him. I’ve blocked him now as his continual lack of original input and his nitpicking is just so tiresome and tedious. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. He has some very interesting insight and analysis. If only he could find a way to be more engaging his efforts could be well received. He hasn’t yet learned how to disagree without being disagreeable.

[JamesR]

On 10/12/2021 at 7:15 AM, Soidog said:

Really @Bob20, I’m racking my memory to try and remember. I’ve not seen The Issan Lawyer on this forum for a long long time. So it can’t be him you are referring to. 
 

I do note a number of people who back last year prior to the Tong Lor/Songkran fiasco, believed Thailand had achieved a miracle and it was safe to open and then changed their mind. However, that’s a perfectly acceptable thing to do

It is the person you are thinking of, he has changed his name now but we can't mention names but you will find him by comparing the style of replies from a certain person now to the person he was last year from Issan.

Check out the comments by the bloke who seems to think he knows it all and writes with a superior 'tone' of comment. 

[Soidog]

23 minutes ago, JamesR said:

It is the person you are thinking of, he has changed his name now but we can't mention names but you will find him by comparing the style of replies from a certain person now to the person he was last year from Issan.

Check out the comments by the bloke who seems to think he knows it all and writes with a superior 'tone' of comment. 

I think the phrase is “Stands out like a sore thumb”

[JamesR]

18 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I think the phrase is “Stands out like a sore thumb”

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaa! (out loud)

[Jason]

Ok keyboard warriors. I wondered how long it would be before the enigma that was, was mentioned on this site. Oh and Soidog , the expression is "Sticks out like a sore thumb", it's one of a few thousand Australian sayings. Here are just a few..."Faster than a Beirut Brickie", "Faster than a rat up a rafter", "Smarter than a rat with a gold tooth", "Faster than a one armed wallpaperer...in a windstorm". Happy to supply any number of Aussie sayings on any topic you care to name :))))

[JamesR]

7 minutes ago, Jason said:

Ok keyboard warriors. I wondered how long it would be before the enigma that was, was mentioned on this site. Oh and Soidog , the expression is "Sticks out like a sore thumb", it's one of a few thousand Australian sayings. Here are just a few..."Faster than a Beirut Brickie", "Faster than a rat up a rafter", "Smarter than a rat with a gold tooth", "Faster than a one armed wallpaperer...in a windstorm". Happy to supply any number of Aussie sayings on any topic you care to name :))))

We brits say, "Faster than a rat up a drainpipe", but I had never heard any of your other expressions, they are funny.

[semrand753]

On 10/12/2021 at 7:24 PM, Soidog said:

If Thailand is issuing ATK nationwide, they now need to reset their reporting to provide a full picture. Not to do so is a missed opportunity for medics and politicians to make the correct decisions to control future spikes in cases. All it is doing is allowing individuals to know if they are positive and then hopefully do the right thing and stay home. The U.K. did a major adjustment in its testing and reporting back in April/May 2020. At this peak there were around 5,000 cases a day. Following the mass testing and reporting, the second spike cases were 60,000. Actual numbers are not that important. It’s how they change following the actions you take to control the virus. 

TLDR: tend to agree, but it's not as simple as that.

I agree that actual numbers  are not very important. What /is/ important is that the way you measure them stays the same, for that's the only way you can measure the effects of certain restrictions/relaxations (like you indicated). More specifically, it's about the trend in the number of people (infected, hospitalized, died), not about the trend in the number of positive test-results. It's perfectly fine to be off by x%, as long as x roughly stays the same.

I also agree that the UK did improve its measurements massively, but it did so by expanding the scope of who were tested, not by just adding ATKs + PCRs (it has had it's fair share of double counting, but the extent was easier to keep track of).

Hypothetically, Thailand could decide next week to first follow up cheap ATK-positives by a high-quality ATK-test, only then to be followed up by a PCR-test (if still positive). That would almost triple the number of positives (if all is simply added). There's no way to know what it would mean with regards to the actual number of people infected and any means of comparing the current and historical data would be obliterated.

I'm OK with publishing ATK- and PCR-results separately. Even lumping them together could be acceptable, provided the distribution is also published (won't happen though). However, it shouldn't be an immediate switch and right now (for a long while actually), I'm more interested in the positivity rate.