Collapse of China

[gummy]

3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

All I can say is standby to watch the fireworks start shortly and that's worldwide.

That's November 5th in the UK

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, gummy said:

Stop the blathering. The truth is Evergrande has not yet collapsed. Until then it is all speculative and no doubt biased assessements of what the impact may be if it is allowed to collapse.

They have hired folks to assist in a major bankruptcy filing, I know the article is a month old but it lays it out.

https://www.citizensjournal.us/endgame-begins-evergrande-hires-bankruptcy-advisors-as-furious-investors-protest-imminent-default/

 

Endgame Begins: Evergrande Hires Bankruptcy Advisors As Furious Investors Protest Imminent Default

Black Swan Event: 1997 Rerun! They just can't get it right.

In a filing on the Hong Kong stock exchange on Tuesday, Evergrande which was busy trying to convince angry Chinese mobs that they will get their money and/or apartments and that it has no plans of default, the company all but conceded that a bankruptcy is imminent when it said it has hired notable bankruptcy advisors Houlihan Lokey and Admiralty Harbour Capital as joint FAs to “assess the firm’s capital structure”, a well-known euphemism of “prepare to file for bankruptcy.” And just so there was no doubt as to what is coming next, the company said if it’s unable to repay debts on time or get creditors to agree to extensions or alternative arrangements, it may lead to cross-default.

 

[gummy]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

if it’s unable to repay debts on time or get creditors to agree to extensions or alternative arrangements, it may lead to cross-default.

Never forget the "If". Let's see if Chine will allow it to default and collapse and prove all the Western doubters correct or not.  But tomorrow is another day.

[Stardust]

23 minutes ago, gummy said:

Stop the blathering. The truth is Evergrande has not yet collapsed. Until then it is all speculative and no doubt biased assessements of what the impact may be if it is allowed to collapse.

Can you give us this information please. Til now I have the informations they are insolvent and all tries to pull them out failed. So if you have any info that sombody pulled them out please show us this information. In international standard insolvent means bankruptcy! 

[birdman]

This is an other sensitive topic,a lot of countries have to deal with this.

https://fortune.com/2021/06/03/china-population-growth-census-2020-slowdown-birth-rate/

[gummy]

5 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Can you give us this information please. Til now I have the informations they are insolvent and all tries to pull them out failed. So if you have any info that sombody pulled them out please show us this information. In international standard insolvent means bankruptcy! 

What is it about my original question you do not understand ?  It was "have they collapsed yet". I made it simple and could have been answered by a simple yes or no. ?  Now as I have said previously, tomorrow is another day ,so all yours and other's verbage is as of now speculation, which for the avoidance of doubt means;

 

 

1. the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

 

[Convert54]

If the worst happens to Evergrande the impact of it on the global scene may just coincide with the potential crisis in the US involving default by the US Treasury.

The combination would be devastation to  global economies.

However both situations do have solutions.

The CCP could bail Evergrande but at the risk of further internal demands for the same by other at risk entities. Although that may be of some satisfaction to Xi by providing greater State control in line with his renewed desire for totalitarianism it will still rock stock markets.

In the US the impasse on bipartisan approval to lift the debt ceiling can be circumnavigated but time consuming and time is short for the Treasury !

 

[Stardust]

2 minutes ago, gummy said:

What is it about my original question you do not understand ?  It was "have they collapsed yet". I made it simple and could have been answered by a simple yes or no. ?  Now as I have said previously, tomorrow is another day ,so all yours and other's verbage is as of now speculation, which for the avoidance of doubt means;

 

1. the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

They are insolvent what is that for you?! Sure I know Evergrande has a few million private investors and they not wanna loose their hope but til today I have no information that sombody will pull them out. And I ask you again what means for you when a company is insolvent?! That was the answer to your question. International standard it means bankruptcy! How they manage the bankruptcy we will see. If you understand with collapse the company will no more exist then I have to answer we have to see how the courts will decide or their creditors like ithappen for example with Thai airways. 

[longwood50]

2 hours ago, billywillyjones said:

China may well be a house of cards in the making.

Well possible but when you see the US federal debt at $29 trillion and climbing, the states combined have over another $1 trillion in debt not including counties, and city debt.  And most damaging of all the Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid systems are "pay as you go"  systems with liabilities for benefits already promised of upwards of $100 trillion dollars that amounts to $130 trillion divided by 120 million families for an average debt of $1.083 million per family.  If there is a deck of cards to fall, based on these numbers it is the USA, not China.  The USA has been running a Ponzi scheme for decades borrowing more money each year to both spend and pay back interest and principal on debt already incurred.  All Ponzi Schemes eventually crash. 

The entire net worth of the world is calculated to be approximately $431 trillion which means that the U.S. Federal debt alone is 6.7% of the total value of all assets on earth.  When added to those unfunded health and retirement benefits it means that the USA has already borrowed and promised benefits equal to 30% of the entire net worth of the planet.  

 

[longwood50]

2 hours ago, Stardust said:

By the way you really think a dictaorship country like China is a save haven

LOL and you believe that the dictatorship in the USA is anymore benevolent?   The only difference between the U.S. form of control and China is that in China the government theoretically owns the business and therefore the risk.  The USA is even a more perverse system.  It lets the private entrepreneur invest money, take the risk and then it regulates it, and taxes it.  What is the difference practically between a China whose government owns a business and therefore controls its activities and the USA who issues regulations governing it.  Case in point, the USA with Obamacare tells the insurance companies what policies it must offer, what states it can offer it in, what medicines and procedures it will allow and then limits the profits of the insurance company to a percent of premiums.  

China added more billionaires than the rest of the world combined and 3 times the number created in the USA.  And that is a "communist" country.  Sounds pretty entrepreneurial to me. 

[palooka]

2 hours ago, gummy said:

Has Evergrande actually collapsed yet ? BBC news has not reported that yet. Yes they are in trouble but they have not yet collapsed, unless you have more up to date facts you could share with us.

Not yet, but they may take a couple of others with them if they go. 

Fantasia another Chinese developer is in trouble financially also failed to pay $205 million and possible tried to hide another failed payment earlier.

Third one is SINIC Holdings whose owner dropped a $1billion on Evergrande down grade, poor bugga is down to his last $200 million and struggling to pay. 

Seems the whole industry in China is up s..t creek in that barbed wire canoe with no paddle.

[Rain]

3 hours ago, Poolie said:

All these western economists trying to dissect the Chinese financial markets make me smile.

.....and don't see the obvious that their false world is crashing down. 

[Stardust]

13 minutes ago, Rain said:

.....and don't see the obvious that their false world is crashing down. 

Exactly and also wondering that some commenters think there is also only China and USA in the world nothing about all the democratic countries in Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etc etc. But we saw how the soviet union block and eastern germany collapsed.

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, longwood50 said:

LOL and you believe that the dictatorship in the USA is anymore benevolent?   The only difference between the U.S. form of control and China is that in China the government theoretically owns the business and therefore the risk.  The USA is even a more perverse system.  It lets the private entrepreneur invest money, take the risk and then it regulates it, and taxes it.  What is the difference practically between a China whose government owns a business and therefore controls its activities and the USA who issues regulations governing it.  Case in point, the USA with Obamacare tells the insurance companies what policies it must offer, what states it can offer it in, what medicines and procedures it will allow and then limits the profits of the insurance company to a percent of premiums.  

China added more billionaires than the rest of the world combined and 3 times the number created in the USA.  And that is a "communist" country.  Sounds pretty entrepreneurial to me. 

Another one who thinks only USA and China exists on the world map and economies! In history and economy they have a lack of knowledge. Did you ever heard something about G7?!

[Rookiescot]

3 hours ago, gummy said:

Never forget the "If". Let's see if Chine will allow it to default and collapse and prove all the Western doubters correct or not.  But tomorrow is another day.

EverGrande has missed payments to western investors twice now. It is interestingly still paying its domestic Chinese investors.

[gummy]

Just now, Rookiescot said:

EverGrande has missed payments to western investors twice now. It is interestingly still paying its domestic Chinese investors.

Doesn't interest me one iota.

[longwood50]

1 hour ago, Stardust said:

Another one who thinks only USA and China exists on the world map and economies! In history and economy they have a lack of knowledge. Did you ever heard something about G7?!

Two things.  This was in response to which country the USA or China was in the worst financial shape and potentially was a deck of cards ready to fall.  I said the USA. 

Secondly, yes I have heard of the G7.  The USA is 1 of the 7 and comprises 86% of the GDP of the other 6 countries combined.  The USA and China combined are 1.6 times larger GDP than the other 6 nations combined.   That is not to disparage them merely to point out, that that China with 1.4 billion people and the USA with 330 million people create a disproportionate amount of GDP compared to the rest of the world.  Though the USA has the largest GDP I still contend it is in worse shape financially than China. I would venture an estimate that China is in better shape financially than the other 6 countries in the G6 as well. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by longwood50

[Rookiescot]

2 minutes ago, gummy said:

Doesn't interest me one iota.

It should. If Evergrande takes down a bank or two with it then the entire Chinese economy may be in serious trouble. That may cause massive problems globally. 

And how does it look to foreign investors when they see a Chinese company making payments to domestic Chinese investors but not paying western investors?

There is also the risk with rogue states like China that if the economy is in meltdown they will try to externalise the problems by blaming others and launching a military operation somewhere (hello Taiwan) to divert peoples attention. 

So yes it should interest you.

[Rookiescot]

5 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

Two things.  This was in response to which country the USA or China was in the worst financial shape and potentially was a deck of cards ready to fall.  I said the USA. 

Secondly, yes I have heard of the G7.  The USA is 1 of the 7 and comprises 46.2% of the GDP of the other 6 countries combined.  The USA and China combined are 1.6 times larger GDP than the other 6 nations combined.   That is not to disparage them merely to point out, that that China with 1.4 billion people and the USA with 330 million people create a disproportionate amount of GDP compared to the rest of the world.  Though the USA has the largest GDP I still contend it is in worse shape financially than China. I would venture an estimate that China is in better shape financially than the other 6 countries in the G6 as well. 

You need to look at it from a perspective of trading blocks rather than individual countries.

The EU has a combined GDP of 15 trillion. Only slightly less than the USA.

[Rain]

7 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

It should. If Evergrande takes down a bank or two with it then the entire Chinese economy may be in serious trouble. That may cause massive problems globally. 

And how does it look to foreign investors when they see a Chinese company making payments to domestic Chinese investors but not paying western investors?

There is also the risk with rogue states like China that if the economy is in meltdown they will try to externalise the problems by blaming others and launching a military operation somewhere (hello Taiwan) to divert peoples attention. 

So yes it should interest you.

I believe it might be in your best interest to understand who the real boogieman might be. 

Hint: it ain't China.

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, Rain said:

I believe it might be in your best interest to understand who the real boogieman might be. 

Hint: it ain't China.

You are going to have to expand on that reply in order that the rest of us can make sense of it.

[Rookiescot]

12 minutes ago, Rain said:

I believe it might be in your best interest to understand who the real boogieman might be. 

Hint: it ain't China.

Wait I got it.

The real boogieman is Michael Jackson.

 

[gummy]

16 minutes ago, Rain said:

I believe it might be in your best interest to understand who the real boogieman might be. 

Hint: it ain't China.

Unfortunately you are wasting your breath attempting to explain because you can't get through to these conspiracy dreamers who have no desire to understand or research the truth, a bit like "flat earthers" really I guess.

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, gummy said:

Unfortunately you are wasting your breath attempting to explain because you can't get through to these conspiracy dreamers who have no desire to understand or research the truth, a bit like "flat earthers" really I guess.

Bit of projection going on there I think.

It is obvious that EverGrande is a company in real difficulties or is that a conspiracy theory? 

EverGrande has managed in the last 2 weeks to make payments to it domestic Chinese investors but has failed twice to pay foreign investors. Is that a conspiracy theory?

Chinese apologists on here have far more in common with flat earthers than the rest of us do.

[Poolie]

6 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Chinese apologists

Always a dead giveaway.