Collapse of China

[Rain]

9 minutes ago, gummy said:

Are these the self same financial experts who could not identify the onset of the 2007/2008 financial crisis  in their own country (America) or just people and companies of a similar name that are now suddenly experts regarding Chinese rather secretive financial matters ?  Just asking for clarity 

Remember.....China has always been a primary enemy and chief competitor. 

Has most everything to do with how they see things.

[JamesE]

17 hours ago, longwood50 said:

Not sure where you went to school But European Union is not "a country" It is a trade zone. 

Maybe this should help you.  These are "continents"  Europe is a continent.  

Sorry you feel so have an inferiority complex regarding the comparison to the USA.  As mentioned about 3 times and you still don't seem to get it.  My original post was that China was more likely to be on solid financial footing compared to the USA.  I said nothing regarding the European Trading Block.  It is much like NAFTA which combines Mexico, the USA, and Canada.

 

These are continents.  Different than countries

 

 

These are countries

 

This is a trading bloc.  Not a Country or a Continent

 

Ummmm... Europe is not a continent in any real sense of the word. It is the western peninsulas and islands of the Eurasian continent which is, in actuality, the continental landmass. Europe has been considered its own continent, separate from Asia for cultural reasons because, white people. But it's only a minor part of what should probably called Asiura since the Asia part is so much bigger.

 

[gummy]

1 minute ago, JamesE said:

Ummmm... Europe is not a continent in any real sense of the word. It is the western peninsulas and islands of the Eurasian continent which is, in actuality, the continental landmass. Europe has been considered its own continent, separate from Asia for cultural reasons because, white people. But it's only a minor part of what should probably called Asiura since the Asia part is so much bigger.

 

By that rationale then should we not assume that the Americas are nothing more than the worlds largest island ? 

[Hamosity]

On 10/5/2021 at 7:18 PM, Poolie said:

All these western economists trying to dissect the Chinese financial markets make me smile.

While the arm-chair macro economists slug it out, this earlier post by Poolie raised a wry smile.

"most analysts agreed China would ensure home buyers and investors would be protected. The Chinese Central Bank also promised it would help ring-fence any local-level banking crisis.

But what about Evergrande's offshore debt tentacles?

Bloomberg's David Qu is watching developments closely and says there's little risk of an Evergrande collapse triggering a global financial crisis. "Overseas investors' exposure to Evergrande is limited," Qu says.

Investors that are exposed, though, are expected to receive a significant so-called "haircut" on their investments."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-08/chinese-property-evergrande-collapse-damage-in-australia/100521564?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

Let's not forget that China is (despite some window dressing) a command economy.  In the remote event there is a default it won't derail the current (14th) Five-Year-Plan.  Even Mao's disastrous "Great Leap Forward" was eventually sorted.  Ideologically you can repudiate or accept the CCP's control of China and its economy.  Up To You....like it or not if Evergrande collapses China won't.

 

[longwood50]

14 hours ago, Stardust said:

Sure and thats why they have a parliament. You are really an empty head. And it is not USA this topic but I understand reading is difficult for you. Your school was google I guess but you didn't learn to use it otherwise you would find Brussel and Strassbourg , then maybe you could find out it is not for trading. And from now no more off topic and no American politics because it is about China but I understand for narcistic people it is not easy because they wanna be always the topic!

 The fact it has a Parliament does not make it a country.   There are no EU embassies, there are no EU ambassadors, the EU is not the entity that is a member of Nato. The EU does not hold a seat at the U.N.  There are no athletes carrying the EU flag at the Olympics.  

While the EU has some similarities with lets say Canada with its five provinces or the USA with its 50 states, it was and still is predominately a compact between the "member states" to facilitate trade.  A common currency and common rules for trade.  So it is more than a North American Free Trade Agreement but less than a country. 

Again to repeat myself for the 4th time, I have no idea why you took umbrage over my original comment about China.  I mentioned nothing about the EU.  I said I did not share the opinion that China was about to collapse.  I found that the USA is in far greater peril of financial collapse.  It was you who somehow inferred that as a slight against the EU.  Obviously you have an inferiority complex because the USA and China are the worlds biggest economies and somehow you wanted to beat your chest about the EU.  The fact is the the EU will shrink by 15% when the U.K. exits from it.  

If it was a country rather than an agreement the U.K. would not be able to just vote itself out of the agreement. 

 

[longwood50]

1 hour ago, JamesE said:

Europe is not a continent in any real sense of the word. It is the western peninsulas and islands of the Eurasian continent which is, in actuality, the continental landmass.

Continents are defined by their continental shelves. A continental shelf is a gently sloping area that extends outward from the beach far into the ocean. A continental shelf is part of the ocean, but also part of the continent

One way or another there have been 7 continents defined now for decades.   Whatever one choses to use to define a continent, the borders identifying them have been established and their borders are commonly recognized.  

 

Edited October 8, 2021 by longwood50

[Convert54]

12 hours ago, Stardust said:

Fzlling drones and falling economy

 

 

The opening statement made me laugh . The one thing China is good at? The same thing as Media who are currently hellbent on assisting the anti Chinese rhetoric using petty and/or twisted statements that invariably infer China is set to be the International aggressor. Sadly it appears there is deliberate propaganda being disseminated in support of the hackneyed "preemptive" excuse to invoke a war that will occur once again far from the shores of a nation which would assume advantage. I seriously believe that would prove to be a mistake !

 

[gummy]

4 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

Continents are defined by their continental shelves. A continental shelf is a gently sloping area that extends outward from the beach far into the ocean. A continental shelf is part of the ocean, but also part of the continent

One way or another there have been 7 continents defined now for decades.   Whatever one choses to use to define a continent, the borders identifying them have been established and their borders are commonly recognized.  

 

Well that is what I always had understood. However @JamesE does raise an interesting discussion point. I have been to Kazakhstan and have walked from the designated Europe side to the similarly designated Asia side. There are prominent markers either side defining it.  I can assure you I did not get my feet wet paddling from one continental shelf to the other, rather walked over the bridge over   the Ural river in Atyrau

[JamesE]

48 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

Continents are defined by their continental shelves. A continental shelf is a gently sloping area that extends outward from the beach far into the ocean. A continental shelf is part of the ocean, but also part of the continent

One way or another there have been 7 continents defined now for decades.   Whatever one choses to use to define a continent, the borders identifying them have been established and their borders are commonly recognized.  

 

So where is the continental shelf between Europe and Asia? Even by your definition it's not a continent.

And at one time there were nine planets. Europe (as a continent) = Pluto (as a planet). It was just a socio-cultural construct so white people would feel good about themselves. Just like the Mercator Projection. Otherwise, it'd be like "Your islands are really that small?"

Edited October 8, 2021 by JamesE
Added some geography.

[JamesE]

2 hours ago, gummy said:

By that rationale then should we not assume that the Americas are nothing more than the worlds largest island ? 

Putting on my geologist hat here. Continents are nothing more than a tectonic plate with continental - as opposed to oceanic - crust thereon. The plates, as with Eurasia and most continental land masses, can have both, but they at least have to have some continental crust so they float higher on the mantle and aren't, for the most part, underwater. The Pacific has several plates with no continental crust and is the only ocean that doesn't have any continent with it. Sadly, Australia claims the title as the world's largest island. It is a single continental landmass (the rest all touched at least one other, prior to canal building ) floating on its own plate. The big surprise for me was that a not-to-small chunk of Russia is actually North America.

[palooka]

1 minute ago, JamesE said:

Putting on my geologist hat here. Continents are nothing more than a tectonic plate with continental - as opposed to oceanic - crust thereon. The plates, as with Eurasia and most continental land masses, can have both, but they at least have to have some continental crust so they float higher on the mantle and aren't, for the most part, underwater. The Pacific has several plates with no continental crust and is the only ocean that doesn't have any continent with it. Sadly, Australia claims the title as the world's largest island. It is a single continental landmass (the rest all touched at least one other, prior to canal building ) floating on its own plate. The big surprise for me was that a not-to-small chunk of Russia is actually North America.

So North America can lay claim to it based on the fact that has been part of North America for a million years or so. Surely China will back them based on their claim to the South China Sea. LOL 55555555

Losing it today, well maybe everday.

[Poolie]

2 hours ago, Hamosity said:

While the arm-chair macro economists slug it out, this earlier post by Poolie raised a wry smile.

"most analysts agreed China would ensure home buyers and investors would be protected. The Chinese Central Bank also promised it would help ring-fence any local-level banking crisis.

But what about Evergrande's offshore debt tentacles?

Bloomberg's David Qu is watching developments closely and says there's little risk of an Evergrande collapse triggering a global financial crisis. "Overseas investors' exposure to Evergrande is limited," Qu says.

Investors that are exposed, though, are expected to receive a significant so-called "haircut" on their investments."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-08/chinese-property-evergrande-collapse-damage-in-australia/100521564?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

Let's not forget that China is (despite some window dressing) a command economy.  In the remote event there is a default it won't derail the current (14th) Five-Year-Plan.  Even Mao's disastrous "Great Leap Forward" was eventually sorted.  Ideologically you can repudiate or accept the CCP's control of China and its economy.  Up To You....like it or not if Evergrande collapses China won't.

 

Appreciated but still quoting a western source. It doesn't work.

[Stardust]

3 hours ago, Poolie said:

Appreciated but still quoting a western source. It doesn't work.

Sure poliburo ccp Beijing is a reliable source. The most brainwashed nation with no other sources and a big firewall the biggest criminal and gangster state of the world. Do you think the whole world is stupid or have only censored sources like North Korea and Ccp China?! By the way Wion is from India and for brainwashed wumaos like you everything putside China is western includin Japan, south korea, Taiwan, India etc etc

[Rain]

5 hours ago, Poolie said:

Appreciated but still quoting a western source. It doesn't work.

To be expected. Most are conditioned to seek out culturally-centric info to satisfy their predisposed prejudices - 

[ThailandRyan]

10 hours ago, palooka said:

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Investment bank JPMorgan has estimated that troubled Chinese property giant Evergrande and many of its major rivals have billions of dollars worth of off-balance sheet debt that, once added on, ramp up their leverage ratios.

JPMorgan's China and Hong Kong property analysts said the tactic is likely to have been used to help firms look like they were conforming with new borrowing cap rules introduced last year, but Evergrande's case looks the most extreme.

"Instead of true deleveraging, we think Evergrande has shifted some of the interest-bearing debt to off-balance sheet debt," JPMorgan's analysts said. "Commercial papers, wealth management products and perpetual capital securities, etc, which are not officially counted as debt."

 

They estimated Evergrande's "net gearing," as debt as a ratio of a firm's equity is known, was at least 177% at the end of the first half of the year, instead of the 100% its accounts reported.

"It is possible that the real gearing could be even higher, as data on some off-balance sheet debt is not publicly available," JPMorgan added, saying the "disguised" debt as it called it added up to 55% of Evergrande's overall debt.

Other major firms whose gearing levels were likely to be higher than formally reported included R&F Properties at 139% versus the 123%, Sunac China Holdings at 138% versus 87% reported and Country Garden at 76% versus 50% reported.

Tricky Dicky accounting strikes again.

 

 

Sounds like Banks here in Thailand with the NPL's.  Implosion probability is approaching for many.

[longwood50]

On 10/8/2021 at 10:24 AM, JamesE said:

So where is the continental shelf between Europe and Asia? Even by your definition it's not a continent.

I did not define the continents, nor did I come up with the definition of what a continent is.  I am merely explaining what is universally understood as the continents of the world.  Perhaps that definition will change over time but for right now, Europe is considered one of the 7 continents of the world and it is not a country nor is the EU a country.  It is "a series of agreements" between members.   It was a smart move to form the EU and remove the barriers for trade.  However hypothetically if Japan or China joined the EU that would not change their sovereign status of them as countries just as the EU did not change the status of Germany or France.  The vast amount of control and budgets spent in each country is controlled by the sovereign nations, not by the EU.  

[longwood50]

On 10/8/2021 at 6:48 AM, palooka said:

LONDON (Reuters) - Investment bank JPMorgan has estimated that troubled Chinese property giant Evergrande and many of its major rivals have billions of dollars worth of off-balance sheet debt that, once added on, ramp up their leverage ratios.

Perhaps this is true however JP Morgan should look no further than a few hundred kilometers south of its New York office it wants to know about "off balance sheet" chicanery.  

The entire world is estimated to have a "net worth" of approximately 431 Trillion USD.  The direct federal debt of the USA is approximately $29 trillion dollars or 6.7% of the entire worth of the world.  That does not include the over $1 trillion owed by the U.S. states, and most importantly it does not cover unfunded benefits. 

The U.S. social security system, Medicare, and Medicaid have existing beneficiaries estimated to cost during their lifetimes over $100 trillion dollars.  The U.S. Federal Reserve through "quantitative easing" created trillions and now has approximately $8.1 trillion on its balance sheet.  Add those together and the USA has at minimum a combined debt and contingent liabilities totaling $138.1 trillion dollars which is 32% of the total net worth of the world.  

So whatever China did or did not do with Everglade is small pocket change compared to the financial morass the USA finds itself in. 

[Rain]

2 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

Perhaps this is true however JP Morgan should look no further than a few hundred kilometers south of its New York office it wants to know about "off balance sheet" chicanery.  

The entire world is estimated to have a "net worth" of approximately 431 Trillion USD.  The direct federal debt of the USA is approximately $29 trillion dollars or 6.7% of the entire worth of the world.  That does not include the over $1 trillion owed by the U.S. states, and most importantly it does not cover unfunded benefits. 

The U.S. social security system, Medicare, and Medicaid have existing beneficiaries estimated to cost during their lifetimes over $100 trillion dollars.  The U.S. Federal Reserve through "quantitative easing" created trillions and now has approximately $8.1 trillion on its balance sheet.  Add those together and the USA has at minimum a combined debt and contingent liabilities totaling $138.1 trillion dollars which is 32% of the total net worth of the world.  

So whatever China did or did not do with Everglade is small pocket change compared to the financial morass the USA finds itself in. 

Yes. The real issue.

Rather convenient how some circles are looking to misdirect reality.

Nothing up their sleeves.

[palooka]

1 hour ago, Rain said:

Yes. The real issue.

Rather convenient how some circles are looking to misdirect reality.

Nothing up their sleeves.

My original comment of "Tricky Dicky accounting" was aimed at all.  China it seems has tried to replicate the stupid mistakes that the US did in 2008 with Fannie Mae and the like. They didn't learn anything from that debacle obviously and it is coming back to bite them. Why?  GREED.

[Poolie]

37 minutes ago, palooka said:

My original comment of "Tricky Dicky accounting" was aimed at all.  China it seems has tried to replicate the stupid mistakes that the US did in 2008 with Fannie Mae and the like. They didn't learn anything from that debacle obviously and it is coming back to bite them. Why?  GREED.

China hasn't 'borrowed' anything from anybody.

Least of all the Americans.

[Stardust]

Energy shortages in China becoming bigger and bigger

 

 

[Stardust]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

China hasn't 'borrowed' anything from anybody.

Least of all the Americans.

Says the politburo Bejing

[Convert54]

24 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Says the politburo Bejing

Easy baseless quip. Offshore finances into China have mostly been speculative , not loans. The only protection for the $US is that as the currency of exchange  they can continue pumping it out with minimal relative impact on  exchange value. That is...until exchanges seek a different format. Something to go to war over?

[Poolie]

12 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

Easy baseless quip. Offshore finances into China have mostly been speculative , not loans. The only protection for the $US is that as the currency of exchange  they can continue pumping it out with minimal relative impact on  exchange value. That is...until exchanges seek a different format. Something to go to war over?

Such as the petro-yuan? Out of Iran? Hmmm......

[Convert54]

15 minutes ago, Poolie said:

Such as the petro-yuan? Out of Iran? Hmmm......

More practical than Tulips for the moment? 555