Collapse of China

[Stardust]

Evergrande collapse, big companies left China or leaving mostly to Vietnam, Taiwan and India. Countries evacuating their supply chains from China like Japan, south Korea, USA, Europe, etc and even subsidy this evacuations like Japan for example. This exodus left a high unemployment in China. China is full of huge debts and this bubbles are bursting. Thailand has put his eggs in the Chinese basket and resulted in a economic dependence on China and they are already in a economic crises and busy with the covid crises. It seamed they not realized what other countries already monitored and understood the danger and potential of this Collapse. If Thailand not change his policies and strategies fast it will be in a perfect storm and crash.

[Stardust]

Everybody who is involved with international companies, japanese companies or korean knows I guess what I am talking and see this huge pull out and evacuation going on a while and at the moment. The fake numbers are bursting from the real situation in China. The tip of the icebergs we could see with evergrande and the run out of China.

[ThailandRyan]

It will not be long before Thailand feels the ripples of the undercurrent from Evergrande going under.  The stock markets world wide will have to absorb the big hit. Reminds me of the meltdown a few decades back with the Financial crisis of 2007-2008. Not sure we will see quite the hit taken back then across the countries but then one never knows.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–2008

also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a severe worldwide economic crisis. Prior to the COVID-19 recession in 2020, it was considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression

[billywillyjones]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

It will not be long before Thailand feels the ripples of the undercurrent from Evergrande going under.  The stock markets world wide will have to absorb the big hit. Reminds me of the meltdown a few decades back with the Financial crisis of 2007-2008. Not sure we will see quite the hit taken back then across the countries but then one never knows.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–2008

also known as the global financial crisis (GFC), was a severe worldwide economic crisis. Prior to the COVID-19 recession in 2020, it was considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression

I hope you are wrong but you may very well be correct.  A huge correction has been in the cards for a long time as the derivative issue was never fixed in the first place.

[ThailandRyan]

Some folks I know in the financial sector in the US are thinking the hit will come in the next few weeks and before the months out.  I have purchased more gold in the past week and then also ensured I have ample reserves to stave off any inflation that might head our way.

[palooka]

Not only Thailand, which is why they believe this will lead to a world wide financial crash, too many countries were reliant on the Chinese market. Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, Australia, New Zealand and even the USA and EU have a lot of eggs in China.

The domino effect of one nation falling will be felt around the world, just hope everyone learnt from the errors pre 2008 crash and are ready for this one, particularly the Banks. Personally think the banks will again get caught short due to Covid damage in the lead up.

[longwood50]

Maybe, however you have a country with over 1 billion people making it potentially the most lucrative retail market in the world.  You have a country that unlike the USA, has been acquiring surplus each year and using it to purchase assets while the USA has racked up huge amounts of debt.  You have a country that rewards success, You do not have a large percentage of the population being parasites and living off government redistribution policies to get re-elected.  China may not have all the answers and may encounter some problems but compared to their major economic rival the USA, I would bet on them.  And, I am from the USA

[billywillyjones]

10 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

Maybe, however you have a country with over 1 billion people making it potentially the most lucrative retail market in the world.  You have a country that unlike the USA, has been acquiring surplus each year and using it to purchase assets while the USA has racked up huge amounts of debt.  You have a country that rewards success, You do not have a large percentage of the population being parasites and living off government redistribution policies to get re-elected.  China may not have all the answers and may encounter some problems but compared to their major economic rival the USA, I would bet on them.  And, I am from the USA

Yeah but one must also understand China has done mass printing of its currency which has then been funneled to subsidize and support companies which are either public or a questionable form of private.  You may not see a welfare state but the welfare state is the government pushing money to companines and many are not even profitable all in an effort to create jobs.  Some Chinese enterprised are competitive in a real world climate but many are not at this stage.  The next step in the Chinese strategy is to eliminate the competition then increase the price.

China is by no  means tranparent and a lot of debt is hidden at the municipal level.  Additionally Wall Street has aided in these shenanigans by not asking Chinese companies for proper reporting as is done in America.  China may well be a house of cards in the making.

Edited October 5, 2021 by billywillyjones

[Nobodysfriend]

Xi's plans to distribute wealth more equally to the general population was bad news for some big profit - orientated chinese companies .

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3145439/chinas-wealthy-urged-xi-jinping-give-back-society-ensure

But the chinese economy is still far from collapsing .

There is some ' reshuffling ' going on , but the results of that are still unknown to the general public .

But it will not really weaken China's position , it is just a minor change of directions .

May be those big companies will be managed by members of the government ...?

 

---> " China must now gear towards a system that more fairly looks after those who are not yet wealthy after the early development of the national economy lifted the country out of poverty and created millionaires, President Xi Jinping said, laying out his plans by defining “common prosperity” for the first time. " <---

[billywillyjones]

2 minutes ago, Nobodysfriend said:

Xi's plans to distribute wealth more equally to the general population was bad news for some big profit - orientated chinese companies .

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3145439/chinas-wealthy-urged-xi-jinping-give-back-society-ensure

But the chinese economy is still far from collapsing .

There is some ' reshuffling ' going on , but the results of that are still unknown to the general public .

But it will not really weaken China's position , it is just a minor change of directions .

May be those big companies will be managed by members of the government ...?

---> " China must now gear towards a system that more fairly looks after those who are not yet wealthy after the early development of the national economy lifted the country out of poverty and created millionaires, President Xi Jinping said, laying out his plans by defining “common prosperity” for the first time. " <---

If you examine many of the companies such as Huawei you will see loyal party members are deeply inbedded in the leadership and profiting nicely from it.

[Stardust]

4 minutes ago, longwood50 said:

Maybe, however you have a country with over 1 billion people making it potentially the most lucrative retail market in the world.  You have a country that unlike the USA, has been acquiring surplus each year and using it to purchase assets while the USA has racked up huge amounts of debt.  You have a country that rewards success, You do not have a large percentage of the population being parasites and living off government redistribution policies to get re-elected.  China may not have all the answers and may encounter some problems but compared to their major economic rival the USA, I would bet on them.  And, I am from the USA

If you see where they are moving to then you would know it is 100% not China. It is India, Vietnam, Europe South Korea and Japan. And you forget India, rest of Asia and Europe are huge markets and bigger than China also in the population together. With their run out and pull out the made their decision and they know what they are doing and why. By the way you really think a dictaorship country like China is a save haven for companies and markets? I guess you never was involved in companies who has to deal with that or like all the big Chinese companies who had experienced the crackdowns in China.

[Stardust]

12 minutes ago, billywillyjones said:

Yeah but one must also understand China has done mass printing of its currency which has then been funneled to subsidize and support companies which are either public or a questionable form of private.  You may not see a welfare state but the welfare state is the government pushing money to companines and many are not even profitable all in an effort to create jobs.  Some Chinese enterprised are competitive in a real world climate but many are not at this stage.  The next step in the Chinese strategy is to eliminate the competition then increase the price.

China is by no  means tranparent and a lot of debt is hidden at the municipal level.  Additionally Wall Street has aided in these shenanigans by not asking Chinese companies for proper reporting as is done in America.  China may well be a house of cards in the making.

Yes I agree and he forget India, Europe and rest of Asia are much bigger markets. China is build on Sand like their ghost towns and constructions who fall apart when you kick at it with your foot.

[Stardust]

15 minutes ago, Nobodysfriend said:

Xi's plans to distribute wealth more equally to the general population was bad news for some big profit - orientated chinese companies .

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3145439/chinas-wealthy-urged-xi-jinping-give-back-society-ensure

But the chinese economy is still far from collapsing .

There is some ' reshuffling ' going on , but the results of that are still unknown to the general public .

But it will not really weaken China's position , it is just a minor change of directions .

May be those big companies will be managed by members of the government ...?

---> " China must now gear towards a system that more fairly looks after those who are not yet wealthy after the early development of the national economy lifted the country out of poverty and created millionaires, President Xi Jinping said, laying out his plans by defining “common prosperity” for the first time. " <---

You really believe anything from the politburo Beijing? Do you know the difference between reality and propaganda? Why do you think they have the big firewall and censor everything in China?! Why do you think nobody in China has access to the worldwideweb or only with vpn and this is illegal by the way in China. Think twice and also think what it means for companies and markets.

[Nobodysfriend]

1 minute ago, Stardust said:

Think twice and also think what it means for companies and markets.

What does it mean ? Please explain ...

[Poolie]

All these western economists trying to dissect the Chinese financial markets make me smile.

[Stardust]

8 minutes ago, Nobodysfriend said:

What does it mean ? Please explain ...

Markets and dictaorships or the planning economy like the comunist countries do and did not fits. Maybe you should talk with some older generations from germany or former soviet union block to understand it better. They all failed and collapsed. Another important point is such economies cannot be innovative and that means they will always behind in the developpment. All their tech is from tech transfers.

[Stardust]

12 minutes ago, Poolie said:

All these western economists trying to dissect the Chinese financial markets make me smile.

The markets will make it and by the way is Japan, south Korea, Taiwan, India, rest of Asia/Indo Pacific not Asia? I know you as a brainwashed CCP supporter live in your own bubble and will it see from the propaganda side and not the reality. Your daily propaganda from the politburo many could experienced in Thailand in many forums.

[Stardust]

7 minutes ago, Stardust said:

The markets will make it and by the way is Japan, south Korea, Taiwan, India, rest of Asia/Indo Pacific not Asia? I know you as a brainwashed CCP supporter live in your own bubble and will it see from the propaganda side and not the reality. Your daily propaganda from the politburo many could experienced in Thailand in many forums.

As somebody who experienced when I was young end of the 80s the fall of the wall in Germany and collapse of the soviet union I remember very well the signs of the collapse. And if you at this time talked with the generations who experienced 2 dictatorships in Germany you for sure understand why they always will be a failure.

[gummy]

Has Evergrande actually collapsed yet ? BBC news has not reported that yet. Yes they are in trouble but they have not yet collapsed, unless you have more up to date facts you could share with us.

[Stardust]

7 minutes ago, gummy said:

Has Evergrande actually collapsed yet ? BBC news has not reported that yet. Yes they are in trouble but they have not yet collapsed, unless you have more up to date facts you could share with us.

Yes a lot of news out there over the failing to save evergrande even in the Thainews

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-government-advised-to-prepare-for-financial-fallout-from-chinas-evergrande-crisis/

Also you will find a lot of news about the evacuations and run out of China from the companies in the net or youtube.

[gummy]

Just now, Stardust said:

Yes a lot of news out there over the failing to save evergrande even in the Thainews

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-government-advised-to-prepare-for-financial-fallout-from-chinas-evergrande-crisis/

Also you will find a lot of news about the evacuations and run out of China from the companies in the net or youtube.

You are just referencing what we already knew. My question was has Evergrande collapsed yet ? It appears it has not - yet, unless you can actually reference any facts where it is stated it has.

[Stardust]

1 minute ago, gummy said:

You are just referencing what we already knew. My question was has Evergrande collapsed yet ? It appears it has not - yet, unless you can actually reference any facts where it is stated it has.

They failed in all benchmarks from the government made for saving them and cannot pay back the debts and sallaeries from 200 000 employees. That means international bankruptcy what else facts you need? China not announced to take their debts and pay the employees. Thats the actual situation. On actual facts til today it is a collapse.

[gummy]

1 minute ago, Stardust said:

They failed in all benchmarks from the government made for saving them and cannot pay back the debts and sallaeries from 200 000 employees. That means international bankruptcy what else facts you need? China not announced to take their debts and pay the employees. Thats the actual situation. On actual facts til today it is a collapse.

Stop the blathering. The truth is Evergrande has not yet collapsed. Until then it is all speculative and no doubt biased assessements of what the impact may be if it is allowed to collapse.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

All these western economists trying to dissect the Chinese financial markets make me smile.

All I can say is standby to watch the fireworks start shortly and that's worldwide.

[Poolie]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

All I can say is standby to watch the fireworks start shortly and that's worldwide.

That was being said a fortnight ago.