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News Forum - Health Ministry predicts infections will fall to 5,000 a day by end of October


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Daily new Covid-19 infections are expected to fall to around 5,000 a day by the end of October, according to a Public Health Ministry spokesman. However, Dr. Kiattiphum Wongrajit remains concerned that they could rise again, due to a number of factors. The Bangkok Post reports that the emergence of infection clusters and the arrival of new variants are still risk factors, according to Kiattiphum. The medic says that the expected drop in new infections should lead to a significant decline in the number of patients experiencing severe symptoms and those who require hospitalisation in intensive care units. Kiattiphum credits […]

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Sure, keep reducing the number of PCR-tests and not counting the positive ATK-tests... That way you can even pretend Covid will disappear.

Then again, if I keep my eyes closed, I can pretend the sun didn't rise this morning...

 

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6 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

According to the Bangkok Post report, from next month, Kiattiphum expects Thailand to be on a par with European countries in terms of its vaccination rate.

Even at the present vaccination rate that's only possible in comparison to the least vaccinated countries, and by including a vaccine now officially recognised as sub-standard that needs a booster with a different vaccine.

Smoke and mirrors.

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"We should be able to live with another Covid-19 outbreak if it occurs, and if it does it would be expected to subside enough by March next year when we could again be back to a more normal situation.”

All is well, if it fails it will only be for 3 months.  Wow that fills me with confidence. Smells of Prayut and his 2-3 weeks, 4 at most statement. 

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3 hours ago, Thaiger said:

Dr. Kiattiphum Wongrajit remains concerned that they could rise again, due to a number of factors.

Always keep the back door open (no pun intended, Dr.)

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6 hours ago, DoUKnowWhoIAm said:

A true expert would just say: it's anyone's guess.

It's 32 days to the end of October and the decline in reported cases over the previous 32 days suggests that the target of 5k per day is feasible if they stick to what they are doing at the moment.

But knowing TH's tendency to change rules overnight, I don't doubt that someone will modify the plan, and as you say, it's anyone's guess.

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11 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

It's 32 days to the end of October and the decline in reported cases over the previous 32 days suggests that the target of 5k per day is feasible if they stick to what they are doing at the moment.

But allegedly, within the next 32 days testing would have dropped to 4999 a day. So correct, 5k per day is feasible.

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1 minute ago, Griff1315 said:

Not much of a prediction when they control the numbers tested hence the numbers of positive cases found. Talk about a sure bet.

Wait until ICU use and deaths rise again...

They're in their honeymoon phase of not including the ATK results in the official figures. That's going to translate into sick and dead just like PCR's.

A little later, but it will come.

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1 minute ago, Bob20 said:

Wait until ICU use and deaths rise again...

They're in their honeymoon phase of not including the ATK results in the official figures. That's going to translate into sick and dead just like PCR's.

A little later, but it will come.

We all hope your wrong nobody wants to see more deaths.

However I fear your right if they report it accurately. 

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Almost every sentence and paragraph in that persons statement is utterly juvenile, idiotic, unprofessional and naive. Not to mention insulting to anyone with a modicum of common sense. You read it and you find yourself shaking your head in absolute wonder as to how anyone spouting such tripe can be in any position of authority.   
 

One example:

The medic says that the expected drop in new infections should lead to a significant decline in the number of patients experiencing severe symptoms and those who require hospitalisation in intensive care units

Well well well. I wish I had a Phd in medicine so I could work that one out. So when there are less people infected, less people become sick?
 

I’ll be right back. I need to call the U.S Centre for Disease Control. I don’t think they aware of this. Fu*ks Sake!! 

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5 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

We all hope your wrong nobody wants to see more deaths.

However I fear your right if they report it accurately. 

Of course noone hopes for that. But that's what inaction and just using soothing words leads to...

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5 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Almost every sentence and paragraph in that persons statement is utterly juvenile, idiotic, unprofessional and naive. Not to mention insulting to anyone with a modicum of common sense. You read it and you find yourself shaking your head in absolute wonder as to how anyone spouting such tripe can be in any position of authority.   
 

One example:

The medic says that the expected drop in new infections should lead to a significant decline in the number of patients experiencing severe symptoms and those who require hospitalisation in intensive care units

Well well well. I wish I had a Phd in medicine so I could work that one out. So when there are less people infected, less people become sick?
 

I’ll be right back. I need to call the U.S Centre for Disease Control. I don’t think they aware of this. Fu*ks Sake!! 

Calm down man take a chill pill they are doing their best, rubbish as it may be.

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12 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Wait until ICU use and deaths rise again...

But that never happens ….. prime example for this is the reported ICU cases in Phuket over the last two weeks.

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Just now, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

But that never happens ….. prime example for this is the reported ICU cases in Phuket over the last two weeks.

Yes, if they keep adding facilities they can control the percentiles, but not the actual numbers.

And the local people are a good measure for when things go pear-shaped, because some things we suspect, but other things have been clearly uncovered.

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2 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Of course noone hopes for that. But that's what inaction and just using soothing words leads to...

It makes you wonder sometimes if there are any adults running the show. I can accept people not knowing something. Even finding it difficult to model outcomes based on complex variables. Weather forecasting is a good example. I can excuse the weather forecast understating the weather or claiming the rain will miss a particular area only to be wrong. But the statements like this one are like the weatherman saying

“Today it may rain but only if the rain is falling. If it doesn’t rain then we expect it to be dry until the rain comes. You won’t need an umbrella if you are out unless it rains”

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Griff1315 said:

Calm down man take a chill pill they are doing their best, rubbish as it may be.

😂😂😂. Sadly I agree with that. They are doing their best 😂😂😂. I’m not sure if I should laugh or cry. Right now I’m crying with laughter 

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5 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

But allegedly, within the next 32 days testing would have dropped to 4999 a day. So correct, 5k per day is feasible.

I can see both the cynicism and humour in your post, and tbh with you, I don't understand what the criteria is for testing in TH. If I had to take a guess, I would think it is that someone feels unwell. Wonders whether it might be CV? Then thinks that they should get tested to check it out. Of course that will not detect any asymptomatic cases. 

So the real question I have for those who think that the figures are being manipulated, is how easy is it to get a test if you think that you might be infected. The problem as I see it as far as getting tourism back within Thailand, is to get the rest of the world to remove TH from red-lists. Epidemiologists are not stupid. If they start to see flights returning from TH with clusters of infections in previously vaxxed passengers, they will soon add back on the red-list.

You may well be right, but how does the inevitable detection of such fraud benefit TH? I am sure you know the saying, "Fool me once - Shame on you. Fool me twice - Shame on me". 

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2 minutes ago, Soidog said:

It makes you wonder sometimes if there are any adults running the show. I can accept people not knowing something. Even finding it difficult to model outcomes based on complex variables. Weather forecasting is a good example. I can excuse the weather forecast understating the weather or claiming the rain will miss a particular area only to be wrong. But the statements like this one are like the weatherman saying

“Today it may rain but only if the rain is falling. If it doesn’t rain then we expect it to be dry until the rain comes. You won’t need an umbrella if you are out unless it rains”

I really like that you can excuse them for it.

Wanna go for a meal tonight?

My treat!

Unless I don't bring any money ☺️

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1 minute ago, JohninDubin said:

You may well be right, but how does the inevitable detection of such fraud benefit TH? I am sure you know the saying, "Fool me once - Shame on you. Fool me twice - Shame on me".

Exactly right @JohninDubin  they can manipulate all they want for the local audience. The rest of the world is far less easily fooled. One statistic I’ve shown a couple of times now is the “positive rate”. (Link attached). This is a measure of the number of tests conducted to the number of positive cases found from those tests. For Thailand that’s currently around 26%. So they can do 100,000 and show 26,000 cases. Or they can do 100 and show 26 cases. It doesn’t change the 26%. Until they get those numbers down to less than 10% they will struggle to move off of the Red Lists in many countries. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=2021-04-02..latest&country=THA~GBR~FRA~ESP~GRC

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