CCSA meets today to extend Covid measures, or ease restrictions

[King Cotton]

7 minutes ago, Benroon said:

So what happened ? Presumably they’re not all still in the meeting ? 

Patience, dear boy (I'm guessing!) . . . patience!

[9S_]

14 hours ago, AlexPTY said:

Extend or ease, that is the question... 

extend with actual enforcement. 
 

no joke people in Muban have karaoke parties. Who do I report these people to? Will the cops actually do something? At least LA and New York had phone numbers where police will go and arrest offenders. 

[BlueSphinx]

18 minutes ago, 9S_ said:

extend with actual enforcement. 
no joke people in Muban have karaoke parties. Who do I report these people to? Will the cops actually do something? At least LA and New York had phone numbers where police will go and arrest offenders. 

Who do I report these people to?  > Nobody likes a snitch...  Maybe all of them already had COVID and fully recovered, or maybe they were all vaccinated already...  Oh wait, that last option is out because it is confirmed that vaccinated people can still both catch and transmit covid. 

So yes, let the police storm in and have them all put in jail.  Oh wait, jail is one of the highest transmission places for covid. 

[AdamX]

18 hours ago, Soidog said:

I agree that having such data would show the impact of lockdown and it is data we should have in order to learn lessons. However, it’s wrong to then put that data along side the Covid data and suggest as you do, that they would hang their head in shame. How can you compare the data? If the lockdowns and it’s associated data hadn’t happened, the Covid serious illness, deaths and long term suffering from “long Covid” could be 10 or 20 times worse. It’s like comparing how many people get wet when using an umbrella compared to injuring their hand while trying to open it. 

The point would be to show how insignificant the covid tragedies are compared to those caused by lockdown in the hope of ending the never ending fear mongering.

[AdamX]

18 hours ago, Stonker said:

As is obvious to "any reasonable person" with at least one functioning brain cell it's not possible for data to be isolated by individual cause due to the unavoidable overlap, but it's relatively easy to put a bracketed answer based on known facts to all of those:

1.Deaths caused by deferred doctor visits.

Between none and very few.  The only "doctor visits" that have been "deferred" will have been by specialists from one hospital to hospitals outside their province.

2.Repercussion on other diseases. 

The excess death rate in Thailand dropped last year as there were fewer deaths due to flu (90% less) and other transmissable diseases due to mask wearing and increased hygiene, as well as fewer deaths due to RTAs.

3. Mental illness.  Informed estimates are up by as much as 10%.

4. Inability to be hospitalized for serious diseases. 

Minimal in Thailand, so far, but considerable elsewhere - a disaster with waiting lists in the UK.

Without lockdowns and with increased Covid cases the situation would obviously have been far worse.

5. Number of vaccine injuries.

Considerably less than 1 in 100,000 or between 0.001 and 0.0001%.

6. Jobless.

Considerable, at least one million. Without lockdowns and with increased cases, numbers would probably have been similar, arguably considerably worse.

7. Homeless.

As for 6.

8. Businesses shuttered.

As for 6.

9. Economic impact in monetary terms.

As for 6.

10. Human Rights.

Human rights can't be quantified, but for most "reasonable" people the loss of individual rights has to be balanced against responsibility to the community and arguably lockdowns have highlighted how much that responsibility was being eroded.

11. Number of people who have natural immunity.

Obviously natural immunity would have been higher but equally obviously so would deaths, hospitalisations, damage to businesses, etc, as they're directly related. Twice as many with natural immunity means twice as many deaths, etc.

It's arguable if that could be justified, since some vaccines can give at least as much protection - in some cases more, with variants.

Well, do so then.

Put them side by side - lockdowns vs your solution, which like the rest of your merry band is to pretend that there isn't a problem as you have no solution.

While I completely and utterly disagree with you,  these are exactly the things we should be discussing—instead of meaningless case numbers.

[9S_]

16 minutes ago, BlueSphinx said:

Oh wait, that last option is out because it is confirmed that vaccinated people can still both catch and transmit covid

All the more reason to maintain social distancing, avoid unnecessary travel and gatherings, no malls open, no restaurants open and have strict enforcement  

California and New York are both success stories in defeating COVID-19. Now look at the likes of Florida, Georgia and Texas. They are facing unprecedented deaths and infections. 

[AdamX]

18 hours ago, Smithydog said:

I would like that too however I see 2 problems. One is that it seems some of that data hasn't been collected yet to allow a responsible and accurate analysis on. It doesn't mean we shouldn't start. Just that you will need time to collect a reasonable amount before any of it would become convincing.

The 2nd issue is how the count of measures and the quality of their enforcement impacted such measures when compared to the impact on cases. How can we separate the actual effects of one measure in terms of success or not when multiple measures are often in operation at the same time?

A control group would likely be needed to verify the findings and would be subject to the same issues of monitoring enforcement of non-compliance with the measure 24/7. Who would prove the outcome? Certainly not us. After all, judging by some recent posts, we are struggling as a group of people on a forum to reach any sort of consensus about how to word the influence or not of Covid-19 on the death of a 102 year old lady!

You make good points.

However, the perplexing issue is that there seems to be not the slightest desire or incentive to try to collect this  data.

If we insist on making these figures part of any reporting of the virus—with an acceptance that these are lagging indicators—then people can put the pandemic into context.

If all we see are pointless case numbers and deaths without demographic and comorbidity data, we will always live in perpetual fear. 

 

[JamesE]

1 hour ago, BlueSphinx said:

when there is that 3rd option.

Here's the thing: the 3rd option is a figment of your imagination. No health service - anywhere - is going to sign up to this dream of free access to ivermectin as a treatment nor as a prophylactic. The data, while interesting, has exactly zero chance of the kind of study that will induce public health services and medical authorities to say "Yeah! Let's do this." And the kinds of studies needed - double-blind, clinical studies that will take years - are not in the offing.

Rather than to continue to beat a dead horse that is not going to miraculously rise to its feet and start draggin' your wagon; and instead of saturating the forums with the "They should do this..." rhetoric of the armchair quarterback (or whatever your preferred-sport equivalent would be) perhaps working with and within the system may actually have some benefit. I don't know... maybe volunteer to drive people to their vaccine appointments? Stand at a vaccination site to provide directions in English? There are probably more ways to help.

Ivermectin and it's ilk - however promising they may be - are not actual options at this point in the pandemic. Continuing the narrative that they are is borderline delusional. I get where you're coming from but right now it's just not possible, particularly when the people you're trying to convince do not have any power to implement your ideas and, moreover, would much rather be looking at the Pattaya Pinups sub.

Peace. Out.

[JamesE]

15 hours ago, AlexPTY said:

Extend or ease, that is the question... 

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of unending lockdown. Or to take phone against the choice of dinner. And by calling receive them. To lie, to sleep--. Evermore--and by a sleep to stay in again. Again. Again. The heartache, and the thousand natural shocks of a city closed.

[Smithydog]

2 minutes ago, AdamX said:

However, the perplexing issue is that there seems to be not the slightest desire or incentive to try to collect this  data.

Agree @AdamX. Desire does seem to be lacking. I will admit I am a bit of a data nerd and the more data I can get the better my fascination with it is stoked! But I am not confident it simply isn't there for some data examples.

Take VAERs data for an example, the only ongoing verification of each report submitted seems to just find duplicate reports and attach each to the primary report. Further investigations are conducted when patterns are observed in the data.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/patient-ed/conversations/downloads/vacsafe-vaers-color-office.pdf

Results of investigations can apparently be found apparently in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), however this does not seem to be a public access site. Hence visibility is restricted.

So I think more data in this case does exist. But, how can we even tell when it's distribution by design is restricted? It also creates the question "What else is there but hidden and why?" By its nature, retaining secrecy and limiting access to actual results simply adds to the growth of conspiracy theories and alternative theories not necessarily based on fact.

Data in its purest form protects identities of individuals involved and so should remove any privacy concerns. In my opinion, hiding or not collecting suitable data, may help make some debates more colourful or interesting as sides compete, but in reality just harms authentic debate on a subject for all. 

[BlueSphinx]

5 minutes ago, Smithydog said:

Agree @AdamX. Desire does seem to be lacking. I will admit I am a bit of a data nerd and the more data I can get the better my fascination with it is stoked! But I am not confident it simply isn't there for some data examples.

Take VAERs data for an example, the only ongoing verification of each report submitted seems to just find duplicate reports and attach each to the primary report. Further investigations are conducted when patterns are observed in the data.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/patient-ed/conversations/downloads/vacsafe-vaers-color-office.pdf

Results of investigations can apparently be found apparently in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), however this does not seem to be a public access site. Hence visibility is restricted.

So I think more data in this case does exist. But, how can we even tell when it's distribution by design is restricted? It also creates the question "What else is there but hidden and why?" By its nature, retaining secrecy and limiting access to actual results simply adds to the growth of conspiracy theories and alternative theories not necessarily based on fact.

Data in its purest form protects identities of individuals involved and so should remove any privacy concerns. In my opinion, hiding or not collecting suitable data, may help make some debates more colourful or interesting as sides compete, but in reality just harms authentic debate on a subject for all. 

An interesting well-balanced and intelligent response from @Smithydog 

Attached below a re-post from an article on VAERS accessibility and the algorithm (not) used to determine whether adverse effects reported warrant further study.

= = = = =

 

Defining Away Vaccine Safety Signals by Matthew Crawford – 27 July 2021 

The article demonstrates that the algorithm being used by the CDC to determine whether there might be  safety concerns as reported on VAERS, the US vaccine adverse effects reporting system, is unfit for detecting any signals of possible concern (which is the main reason that reporting system was installed). Any mathematician/statistician looking at the ‘detection’ algorithm will very quickly see the enormous flaw in the design, and it is absolutely amazing that only now this gigantic blooper has been uncovered. Or was this by design? 

Two excerpts from the article:

#1 - … Do you kinda get the sense that the PRR function is designed to hide signals of unsafe vaccines, not to identify them?

Maybe this is a matter of incompetence?

Hanlon's razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

There is no doubt that governments are jam packed with incompetent people in important roles (often scattered around a handful of brilliant ones who unfortunately lend their credibility). Perhaps that is why somebody like Richard Feynman was called in to help figure out what went wrong with the Challenger shuttle disaster. So, I'll take this time to note that the person who called me last night has also been emailing the CDC for weeks, either with no response or an obtuse brush off. Maybe I'll have the time to write about that in another article.

#2 - Calling this a safety system is decidedly unsafe. Even worse---given that numerous academics, including statisticians, reviewed this document, it is hard to believe that the scale invariance embedded in the definition of PRR, or the logic that includes meeting multiple criteria at the same time, went unnoticed. It certainly appears that the CDC's goal was to establish an illusion of safety, and a reason to ignore the true signs of danger. At best, they unfathomably hired nobody whose job it was to remain independently-minded who could clue them in?

= = = = =

I attach here a PDF of the full text.  And in case the links in the PDF do not work the original text with active links can be accessed here: > https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/defining-away-vaccine-safety-signals

Defining Away Vaccine Safety Signals - by Mathew Crawford - Rounding the Earth.pdf 1.1 MB · 4 downloads

 

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

34 minutes ago, JamesE said:

Ivermectin and it's ilk - however promising they may be - are not actual options at this point in the pandemic. Continuing the narrative that they are is borderline delusional. I get where you're coming from but right now it's just not possible, particularly when the people you're trying to convince do not have any power to implement your ideas and, moreover, would much rather be looking at the Pattaya Pinups sub.

Peace. Out.

One of my neighbors had a positive Covid test among his extended family living there. I secured a supply of Ivermectin to them. Not one of the 10+ other family members tested positive during the 2 week house quarantine imposed. That is what they say to people now. 2 weeks stay at home and re-testing a couple of times during that period.

[BlueSphinx]

6 minutes ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

One of my neighbors had a positive Covid test among his extended family living there. I secured a supply of Ivermectin to them. Not one of the 10+ other family members tested positive during the 2 week house quarantine imposed. That is what they say to people now. 2 weeks stay at home and re-testing a couple of times during that period.

Where is the peer-reviewed double-blind meta-analysis study proving that case?  Just asking for a foe...

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

3 minutes ago, BlueSphinx said:

Where is the peer-reviewed double-blind meta-analysis study proving that case?  Just asking for a foe...

Have to wait for another neighbor and then I'll will give them placebos!

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

So are they doing a marathon meeting with a lot of blow and hookers or just a regular marathon meeting with hookers?

[Skokholm]

I am one of those rare beasts -a Phuket Sandbox tourist!. I was clearly naive in my planning because the restrictions here make it a less than enjoyable experience. I arrived the day that new restrictions were enforced (1 Aug) and this has limited my options. Would not have come here if I knew what I now know.

There is one boring restaurant in my hotel. And in nearby Patong most are closed. Also, as a responsible drinker,  I do like a glass of wine or beer with my meal, and I fail to see how banning that controls covid .

There is a lack of information (But Thaiger is helpful) . I am considering moving to Hua Hin where I have friends but am getting coflicting advice on how to get there.

Nobody (TAT?)has asked for any input from me.

On a positive side , I have had several rounds of millionaire golf (no  one behind or in front of me ). The caddies regard me as something unique! One day last week they had only six visitors!

Any thoughts on how or if I travel to Hua Hin?

Cheers

 

Richard

 

 

 

 

[Skokholm]

23 minutes ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

So are they doing a marathon meeting with a lot of blow and hookers or just a regular marathon meeting with hookers?

Have they come up with any answers? About Covid restrictions ( not blow or hookers)

[palooka]

20 hours ago, BraveNewFahrenheit said:

What did the Chinese use? And how many people have died there?

Have patience, they are finding out that it has come back to bite them and the CCP will not stop it.

[Ubon2530]

6 minutes ago, Skokholm said:

Have they come up with any answers? About Covid restrictions ( not blow or hookers)

The circle jerk meeting? You missed it.

Guess who had to eat the soggy biscuit... the rest of the country

[palooka]

7 minutes ago, Skokholm said:

I am one of those rare beasts -a Phuket Sandbox tourist!. I was clearly naive in my planning because the restrictions here make it a less than enjoyable experience. I arrived the day that new restrictions were enforced (1 Aug) and this has limited my options. Would not have come here if I knew what I now know.

There is one boring restaurant in my hotel. And in nearby Patong most are closed. Also, as a responsible drinker,  I do like a glass of wine or beer with my meal, and I fail to see how banning that controls covid .

There is a lack of information (But Thaiger is helpful) . I am considering moving to Hua Hin where I have friends but am getting coflicting advice on how to get there.

Nobody (TAT?)has asked for any input from me.

On a positive side , I have had several rounds of millionaire golf (no  one behind or in front of me ). The caddies regard me as something unique! One day last week they had only six visitors!

Any thoughts on how or if I travel to Hua Hin?

Cheers

Richard

You think Hua Hin would be better, more golf courses yes, but still Covid dark red zone, so not much happening.

[AlexPTY]

2 hours ago, 9S_ said:

extend with actual enforcement. 
 

no joke people in Muban have karaoke parties. Who do I report these people to? Will the cops actually do something? At least LA and New York had phone numbers where police will go and arrest offenders. 

used to be able to report people driving on pedestrian sidewalk, it seemed more important that people breaking covid regulations. all enforcement is busy dealing with hooligans at Ratchaprasong anyways.

i am just wondering how all those plans to attract tourists go together with Bangkok images i saw on CNN and BBC last night?

[Skokholm]

Fair Point. And the HH golf courses are closed. But it is where I have friends

[oldcpu]

19 hours ago, smartcontrol said:

  I am tired of the same Restaurant every day. the others all closed 2 weeks ago. the 3 Restaurants in my hotel are closed.

That's sad to read but it does IMHO illustrate why expats in Phuket who own a vehicle and know where there are great restaurants open have a big advantage ( especially if the expats' income is not dependent on tourism).

My wife and I (Phuket residents) have been eating out a lot more the past year to try and help local restaurants. There are amazing places but one needs to know where to find them and have the transportation to get there.

[BlueSphinx]

4 hours ago, Thinker1951 said:

I follow the news. The real news. The delta variant is sweeping through the southern United states and infecting record numbers. And guess who??? The unvaccinated. And the young. The pedatric wards are full.

Delta is deadlier and infecting younger people for various reasons (ignorance, fake news, political party etc) they refuse to get vaccinated. Hard to believe. They will let their doctors operate on them feed them with medications with side effects that are enough to scare you to death but wont take a vaccine already given to hundreds of millions safely that works amazingly well at preventing serious or even mild sickness from covid. 

And then I read some of the comments here about opening up and letting everyone wander around freely. Hard to believe. The only thing that will solve this is continuing the lockdowns and getting the vaccine to the people till then stay at home wear a mask and keep your distance. (and stop wishing it isn't serious and overblown and will just go away it won't) We have been through the whole covid pandemic here in Canada and we all lined up for the vaccine here in Canada and now we are opening up. Not like some of our wayward cousins to the south. For that I'm truly grateful and pray for the Thai people and Thailand they can work their way out of the worst possible scenarios that could still play out.

You wrote > I follow the news. The real news.  And then you go on parroting the CDC and most mainstream media, that the US now have a “pandemic of the unvaccinated" with 99% of COVID-19 deaths and 95% of COVID-related hospitalizations occurring among the unvaccinated. 

Well, I have some REAL news for you > That is a blatant LIE and sooner rather than later it will be exposed.  That 95-99% figure is based on the hospitalization and mortality data from January through June 2021!

The vast majority of the United States population was of course unvaccinated during that timeframe.  And to further boost these misleading figures you were only counted as vaccinated two weeks after having had your 2nd shot, otherwise you belonged to the 'unvaccinated lot'. 

[Kaffir76]

1 hour ago, Skokholm said:

I am one of those rare beasts -a Phuket Sandbox tourist!. I was clearly naive in my planning because the restrictions here make it a less than enjoyable experience. I arrived the day that new restrictions were enforced (1 Aug) and this has limited my options. Would not have come here if I knew what I now know.

There is one boring restaurant in my hotel. And in nearby Patong most are closed. Also, as a responsible drinker,  I do like a glass of wine or beer with my meal, and I fail to see how banning that controls covid .

There is a lack of information (But Thaiger is helpful) . I am considering moving to Hua Hin where I have friends but am getting coflicting advice on how to get there.

Nobody (TAT?)has asked for any input from me.

On a positive side , I have had several rounds of millionaire golf (no  one behind or in front of me ). The caddies regard me as something unique! One day last week they had only six visitors!

Any thoughts on how or if I travel to Hua Hin?

Cheers

Richard

I’m the other rare beast ;)

so are my 2 friends down the Street at Patong.

no issues with food (Order via apps) & the hotels sell beer & wine.

We are traveling to BKK @ Fri. With Thai Smiles.

yay?