News Forum - Thailand’s economy defies global recession fears with post-election boost

[Thaiger]

Thailand’s economy is predicted to gain momentum during the last three quarters of this year, despite the looming threat of a global recession, partly due to the boost from the May 14 General Election, according to analysts. The country’s GDP growth for the first quarter was 2.7% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.3% and marking an …

The story Thailand’s economy defies global recession fears with post-election boost as seen on Thaiger News.

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[Pompies]

A stunningly naive assessment of the situation. The authors obviously have no real knowledge of the processes of the election nor of the machinations that those who lost are already undertaking in their plan to prevent the MFP alliance from forming a government. At best there will be 2 or 3 months of political wrangling and no economic action from the caretaker govt. At worst there will be street fighting and a return to all out instability. None of this points to a positive position for the economy irrespective of global developments.

[Saunk]

7 hours ago, Pompies said:

A stunningly naive assessment of the situation. The authors obviously have no real knowledge of the processes of the election nor of the machinations that those who lost are already undertaking in their plan to prevent the MFP alliance from forming a government. At best there will be 2 or 3 months of political wrangling and no economic action from the caretaker govt. At worst there will be street fighting and a return to all out instability. None of this points to a positive position for the economy irrespective of global developments.

You took the word naive right out of my mouth.  The idea that the global economy will be in a recession but somehow Thailand won't be affected by it is laughable.  

[Marc26]

10 minutes ago, Saunk said:

You took the word naive right out of my mouth.  The idea that the global economy will be in a recession but somehow Thailand won't be affected by it is laughable.  

Of course Thailand would be affected, you are correct

 

But here is a simplistic take

The way Thai culture is, I think they are able to weather any downturns better than most

 

I saw it during Covid

A lot of families already are used to relying on other family members for financial support(rightfully or wrongfully)

 

So as long as one or two of them are working, they should squeak by

[palooka]

11 hours ago, Marc26 said:

Of course Thailand would be affected, you are correct

But here is a simplistic take

The way Thai culture is, I think they are able to weather any downturns better than most

I saw it during Covid

A lot of families already are used to relying on other family members for financial support(rightfully or wrongfully)

So as long as one or two of them are working, they should squeak by

Locally seeing signs of financial stress with a few going bust as people are not paying for work done.

Bro- in law, a builder is broke, his last three jobs failed to pay final money.  (next week)

He had 5 men working for him that are also not going to get paid. 

A welder has shut up shop and going to Bangkok chasing work.

M-in-L has lots of people who owe her shop and no money.

Guess the local Royal Ploughing Ceremony didn't work here.

[KaptainRob]

50 minutes ago, palooka said:

Locally seeing signs of financial stress with a few going bust as people are not paying for work done.

Bro- in law, a builder is broke, his last three jobs failed to pay final money.  (next week)

He had 5 men working for him that are also not going to get paid. 

A welder has shut up shop and going to Bangkok chasing work.

M-in-L has lots of people who owe her shop and no money.

Guess the local Royal Ploughing Ceremony didn't work here.

Chain restaurants and retail shops in Malls have closed while popular food courts are now even more hectic.  Scavengers prowl the mooban for recyclables and petty theft is on the rise.  Solar outdoor gate or garden lights, builders heavy tools left on site and materials disappearing.

Building houses for farangs, not only Chinese, remains steady.

[Marc26]

1 hour ago, palooka said:

Locally seeing signs of financial stress with a few going bust as people are not paying for work done.

Bro- in law, a builder is broke, his last three jobs failed to pay final money.  (next week)

He had 5 men working for him that are also not going to get paid. 

A welder has shut up shop and going to Bangkok chasing work.

M-in-L has lots of people who owe her shop and no money.

Guess the local Royal Ploughing Ceremony didn't work here.

I guess it depends where you are as well

 

My wife and family in a pretty busy industry area, Samui Prakan

So still seemed plenty of work as well as plenty of middle class people WFH

 

And my wife's village is pretty prosperous(Suphan Buri)

 

So maybe I am just naive in what I see

 

 

But even in a far off village most families have 1 or 2 people, at least, working in Bangkok or elsewhere making money

 

Just seems they can withstand lean times Because of how they have always had the family structured 

 

That's just my take

Not saying I am even correct 

[palooka]

1 hour ago, Marc26 said:

But even in a far off village most families have 1 or 2 people, at least, working in Bangkok or elsewhere making money

Live in one of those.

The grannys are looking after the kids and most mum and dad are in Bangkok working and sending baht home.  Sending the baht home seems to be a bit of a problem. 

Can be a myriad of reasons, one that has made a big hole here in a lot of budgets was the recent hike in electricity costs.  

What you see and what I see, can give others a part of the overall picture at ground level not through the eyes of a number cruncher in an office working on old (months sometimes) data and stats. 

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

2 hours ago, Marc26 said:

I guess it depends where you are as well

Or if you have an RTP in the family …. Now all the tourists are back. … maybe someone who works in the TAT as well.

[Khunmark]

23 hours ago, Pompies said:

A stunningly naive assessment of the situation. The authors obviously have no real knowledge of the processes of the election nor of the machinations that those who lost are already undertaking in their plan to prevent the MFP alliance from forming a government. At best there will be 2 or 3 months of political wrangling and no economic action from the caretaker govt. At worst there will be street fighting and a return to all out instability. None of this points to a positive position for the economy irrespective of global developments.

Not to mention MFP and it’s major coalition member Phua Thai, are poles apart on economic policy.

[Marc26]

7 hours ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Or if you have an RTP in the family …. Now all the tourists are back. … maybe someone who works in the TAT as well.

I am sure helps!

 

Like I said, my wife's village is relatively prosperous, it is one of the best places in Thailand for rice harvests

 

And I guess that all trickles down to other businesses

 

So not too many people are rich, but you don't have many that are in dire straits either

 

So that can slant your(mine) view of how things going in other parts of the country

[Marc26]

9 hours ago, palooka said:

Live in one of those.

The grannys are looking after the kids and most mum and dad are in Bangkok working and sending baht home.  Sending the baht home seems to be a bit of a problem. 

Can be a myriad of reasons, one that has made a big hole here in a lot of budgets was the recent hike in electricity costs.  

 

Was talking to my wife the other day at how much pressure is on some of these people that have to support a bunch of people

 

And there seems to be so many able-body Thais that are perfectly fine letting someone support them, and don't really seem to care the pressure it puts on those people