News Forum - Who blew it? Putin blames UK Royal Navy for Nord Stream blast

[Thaiger]

Russia’s defence ministry has accused the British royal navy of sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines last month, a claim that London vigorously denies. Moscow did not provide any evidence to back up its assertion, saying that “British specialists” from the same unit directed Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea causing minor damage to a minesweeper. Moscow had previously blamed the West for the explosions that ruptured the Russian-built Nord Stream pipelines on the bed of the Baltic Sea, but without naming names. The Russian defence ministry said… “According to available information, representatives of this […]

The story Who blew it? Putin blames UK Royal Navy for Nord Stream blast as seen on Thaiger News.

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[Rookiescot]

Yes the UK is going to waste time, money and effort blowing up a pipeline which does not affect the UK in any way.

Here is a counter argument. 

Putin is lying.

[23RD]

Well someone sabotaged it ?

It's wasn't The Royal Navy and it definitely wasn't The Russians themselves because that would have been their biggest own goal ever.

Maybe it was the left wing lunatics from Just Stop Oil or Extinction Rebellion. 

Who would have:

1. The capability. 

2. The desire to end natural/fossil fuel. 

Answers on a postcard. 

[Fanta]

Following the money is typically a good start.

[EdwardV]

  On 10/30/2022 at 8:38 AM, Fanta said:

Following the money is typically a good start.

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What money interest does the Brits have in blowing up the pipeline? The EU is cutting off gas imports from Russia in January anyway. The pipeline going down doesn’t change that dynamic. I agree with your statement with typically being the key word. I think this attack is the exception to the rule. It’s geopolitical in nature, not monetary. 
 

I think Russia blew it up. It does two things for them. First it gives them an actual excuse for not shipping gas in Nord Stream 1, instead of that phony one they had been using about a turbine. Second it forces Germany to activate Nord Stream 2 if they want gas this winter. A move that would drive a wedge between them and the rest of coalition. Something Russia has been trying to do since before the war started, and a critical need for Russia to win the war. A large portion of the supplies to Ukraine go through Poland which first transit Germany. Without Germany is gets very hard to supply Ukraine. 

[Vigo]

Russia was the culprit.

[Guest1]

My money is on the global policeman!

[Fanta]

  On 10/30/2022 at 1:05 PM, EdwardV said:

Second it forces Germany to activate Nord Stream 2 if they want gas this winter

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No. Both NS1 & NS2 were sabotaged and NS2 is also not certified so activating NS2 is definitely not an option. As with most crimes to find the culprit we should look at who had the motive, the means and the opportunity to sabotage the pipelines in NATO waters. It is convenient to blame Russia however what is their motive? The loss of both NS’s means a big loss of leverage for Russia over the EU and Russia is now forced to rely on Turkstream for exporting their gas to Central Europe now that Ukraine has throttled down Russian gas transiting through Ukraine. Meanwhile the US has loaded LNG tankers backed up in Spanish ports waiting to unload. Germany, previously extremely reliant on Russian energy, now has nothing to lose by hoping off the fence and committing more resources to the war in Ukraine. Indeed we have seen a hardening of Germany’s attitude to Russia since the sabotage of the pipelines. Motive, means, opportunity….. 

[EdwardV]

  On 10/30/2022 at 7:06 PM, Fanta said:

No. Both NS1 & NS2 were sabotaged and NS2 is also not certified so activating NS2 is definitely not an option. As with most crimes to find the culprit we should look at who had the motive,

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Except Putin says otherwise:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow is ready to resume gas supplies to the European Union via a link of the Germany-bound Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea – an offer quickly rejected by Berlin.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/10/12/putin-offers-to-boost-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-nord-stream-2

Also the damaged section is not in NATO waters, but in the economic zone of Sweden (who is not a NATO member yet). More importantly those are technically international waters as far as navigation is concerned. Never mind if you set the charges by sub or from the inside (attached to a pig), who owns the waters is pretty meaningless. The loss of Nord Stream is meaningless as to supplying Central Europe as that line only goes to Germany. The hardening of German attitude is just the normal boomerang effect of most most Russian activities in this war. Motive, means, opportunity all point to Russia. 

Again what does the UK get out of blowing up the pipeline? After all if Putin says it was the UK, it must be them.

[Fanta]

  On 10/30/2022 at 9:00 PM, EdwardV said:

Again what does the UK get out of blowing up the pipeline?

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I didn’t say the UK blew it up. NATO waters or NATO aspirant’s waters - same same but different. 

  On 10/30/2022 at 9:00 PM, EdwardV said:

Motive, means, opportunity all point to Russia. 

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What motive? And the ease of opportunity is inside Russia not off the Swedish coast. Russia has no need to blow up their own pipelines when they can just turn the gas on and off at their leisure. Leverage. I get that everyone wants to blame Russia for everything but much like the claims of Russia shelling a nuclear power plant under their control or shelling a prison under their control the logic just doesn’t add up. The Russians have made a stupid mistake invading Ukraine but it doesn’t mean they are stupid people.

[EdwardV]

  On 10/30/2022 at 9:46 PM, Fanta said:

I didn’t say the UK blew it up. NATO waters or NATO aspirant’s waters - same same but different.

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Well I was clear the claim came from Putin, and not you. That said, is Putin lying? I have no doubt he knows exactly who blew up the pipeline.

  On 10/30/2022 at 9:46 PM, Fanta said:

What motive? And the ease of opportunity is inside Russia not off the Swedish coast. Russia has no need to blow up their own pipelines when they can just turn the gas on and off at their leisure. Leverage.

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The motive is to break Germany away from the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine. The Baltic isn’t that big, everywhere is off someone’s coast. Meaning the fact it was in the Swedish economic zone is meaningless. For example, Russia complain Sweden wasn’t allowing them access to the site. This was because at the time it was a crime scene. Once Sweden was done investigating, they told Russia to go ahead since they lacked the power to stop them at that point. Because again it’s technically international waters. Besides the fact Russia had already turned off the gas right? Again it’s about a plausible excuse and to create leverage to get Germany to take gas through Nord steam 2. Something they very much want to happen. Russia has more motivation than anyone else. Give me another suspect who has motive, means and opportunity. 

[Fanta]

  On 10/30/2022 at 10:34 PM, EdwardV said:

The motive is to break Germany away from the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine.

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And how does “permanently” cutting Russian energy off from Germany achieve that? The severing of the pipelines also severs any reluctance Germany may have had to send things such as mothballed Leopard tanks to Ukraine or, heaven forbid, not suggest peace talks. These pipelines were important economic and financial weapons for Russia that have now been taken out of the equation. 

  On 10/30/2022 at 10:34 PM, EdwardV said:

Again it’s about a plausible excuse and to create leverage to get Germany to take gas through Nord steam 2.

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NS2 is ruptured and also not certified. Claiming that the sabotage was a ruse to get NS2 running ignores that, pre sabotage, NS1 could have been brought online quickly at any time and that NS2 would have taken months to become operational.

  On 10/30/2022 at 10:34 PM, EdwardV said:

Give me another suspect who has motive, means and opportunity. 

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Obviously Ukraine and or the West (same same) although a disgruntled lone wolf or a militant tree hugger will likely be the sacrificial lamb if undeniable evidence appears that Russia didn’t do it. If Ukraine can sink the Moskova and try to sink the other Russian frigate with underwater drones then they can blow up undefended pipelines thereby hurting Russia economically & politically and boosting morale at home. Call it instant DIY  sanctions - no crowd consensus needed. Motive, means, opportunity criteria met as opposed to …… “it was Russia ’cause they is bad”

[EdwardV]

  On 10/30/2022 at 11:33 PM, Fanta said:

And how does “permanently” cutting Russian energy off from Germany achieve that?

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That’s where Nord Stream 2 comes in, it’s still intact and hooked up to Germany. Interesting how NS 1 was cut but NS 2 wasn’t. If it was someone other than Russia it would make sense to destroy both. 

  On 10/30/2022 at 11:33 PM, Fanta said:

NS2 is ruptured and also not certified.

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It’s not certified but it’s still pressurized. That means it’s not ruptured. The pipeline was ready to be certified prior to the invasion. Putin himself says it’s ready to be used. NS2 is a political issue, not an operational one (well it is now). Hence my point to begin with. 

  On 10/30/2022 at 11:33 PM, Fanta said:

Obviously Ukraine and or the West

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Except the line was turned off. Doesn’t hurt Russia to blow up a line that’s not being used. If Ukraine really wanted to turn off the gas, they could easily blow up the two that run through Ukraine. Better yet blow up the one running through Belarus. If you can blow up one at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, doing so in Belarus would be a piece of cake. Heck the Belarusians might even help you do it. 

[Fanta]

  On 10/31/2022 at 12:44 AM, EdwardV said:

That’s where Nord Stream 2 comes in, it’s still intact and hooked up to Germany. Interesting how NS 1 was cut but NS 2 wasn’t

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No. Both have sprung a leak. Your argument  is flawed. 

“We can conclude that there have been detonations at Nord Stream 1 and 2 in the Swedish exclusive economic zone that have led to extensive damage to the gas pipelines,” Sweden’s public prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said in a statement”

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/10/6/initial-probe-of-nord-stream-gas-leaks-points-to-sabotage-sweden 

[Cqman]

So much non sense on this matter.

While would Russia build a pipeline for $10b then blow it up ?

One country always did everything so this pipeline would not operate: US. Biden said in January that US will do everything so this pipeline won't operate.

Whoever blow it up was working for US.

The consequences of this pipeline blowing up are: German industry (which mostly uses gas) will disappear or being moved to US for cheaper gas. Dirty gas from US, which was forbidden to be imported in European Union's countries is now welcome and 4 times the price of Russian gas we use to import.

As someone said, follow the money and everything turns clear.

Edited October 31, 2022 by Cqman
Mispell

[EdwardV]

  On 10/31/2022 at 1:04 AM, Fanta said:

No. Both have sprung a leak. Your argument  is flawed. 

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Speaking at a Moscow energy forum on Wednesday, Putin said that one of the two links of the pipeline remained pressurised despite a series of ruptures last month which caused major leaks, sending gas spewing out off the coast of Denmark and Sweden.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/10/12/putin-offers-to-boost-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-nord-stream-2
 

You can’t remain pressurized if you have a leak. Either the leak was fixed, or the initial report was flawed and the NS 2 pipeline integrity wasn’t compromised. Either way Putin says the pipeline is ready and able. 

[Fanta]

  On 10/31/2022 at 2:23 AM, EdwardV said:

Either way Putin says the pipeline is ready and able. 

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And since when did you believe anything Putin says? And from your article 

“Putin said that if checks prove the Nord Stream 2 link is safe to operate, Russia stands ready to use the pipeline to pump gas to Europe, adding its capacity stands at 27 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year”

Those checks are likely to take even longer than the month long investigation has taken.  Ready and able = wishful thinking. 

So your theory is that Russia sabotages one of their 55 billion cubic meter pipeline (NS1) so they can use their other 55 billion cubic meter pipeline (NS2) to drive a wedge between Germany and the West despite the fact that Germany has already committed to stop using Russian gas. Nope, I’m not buying it. Why not just turn NS1 back on which will drop the currently elevated price? Win win for everyone except Ukraine and the US.

[EdwardV]

  On 10/31/2022 at 2:54 AM, Fanta said:

Why not just turn NS1 back on which will drop the currently elevated price? Win win for everyone except Ukraine and the US.

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You keep looking at it as if it’s an economic operation, its political. Turn back on NS1, so what. Germany still has permission to get gas from it. Turn on NS 2, that’s a big deal in the West. That’s a coalition buster. 

You still haven’t said how it benefits Ukraine to blow up the pipeline. As for the US, they already have more orders than they can supply. Getting even more doesn’t help them. You have claimed there is a motive, but like Putin don’t seem to back it up. 

[Fanta]

  On 10/31/2022 at 3:13 AM, EdwardV said:

You keep looking at it as if it’s an economic operation, its political. Turn back on NS1, so what. Germany still has permission to get gas from it. Turn on NS 2, that’s a big deal in the West. That’s a coalition buster. 

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This war is being fought on 4 fronts - military, political, economic and information. You think this is a political strike from Russia while I think this is a political and economic blow to Russia.

  On 10/31/2022 at 3:13 AM, EdwardV said:

You still haven’t said how it benefits Ukraine to blow up the pipeline.

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It helps the same way that sanctions help Ukraine - by weakening their enemy. It also removes any hesitancy towards cutting ties with Russia by some countries in the West. Plus Ukraine can always unthrottle the Russian gas running through it’s country - for a suitably inflated price. 

  On 10/31/2022 at 3:13 AM, EdwardV said:

As for the US, they already have more orders than they can supply.

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Tell that to Chevron and crew. 
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-sees-lng-growth-opportunity-europe-strong-demand-top-executive-2022-10-12/

  On 10/31/2022 at 3:13 AM, EdwardV said:

You have claimed there is a motive, but like Putin don’t seem to back it up. 

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Myself and others have given you multiple motives already but you don’t want to hear them. Leverage, money etc. 

[Tim_Melb]

  On 10/31/2022 at 3:13 AM, EdwardV said:

You still haven’t said how it benefits Ukraine to blow up the pipeline.

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If the Nordstream pipelines are blown up what other pipelines are available for Russia to use to sell gas to Western Europe? And where are those pipelines? 

[Vigo]

  On 10/30/2022 at 7:06 PM, Fanta said:

No. Both NS1 & NS2 were sabotaged and NS2 is also not certified so activating NS2 is definitely not an option. As with most crimes to find the culprit we should look at who had the motive, the means and the opportunity to sabotage the pipelines in NATO waters. It is convenient to blame Russia however what is their motive? The loss of both NS’s means a big loss of leverage for Russia over the EU and Russia is now forced to rely on Turkstream for exporting their gas to Central Europe now that Ukraine has throttled down Russian gas transiting through Ukraine. Meanwhile the US has loaded LNG tankers backed up in Spanish ports waiting to unload. Germany, previously extremely reliant on Russian energy, now has nothing to lose by hoping off the fence and committing more resources to the war in Ukraine. Indeed we have seen a hardening of Germany’s attitude to Russia since the sabotage of the pipelines. Motive, means, opportunity….. 

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How exactly is Germany going to import this American LNG? As I understand the trade, there needs to be  facilities to unload and transfer LNG. Are you aware that Germany doesn't have one facility to do that? There are 2 floating unloading stations currently under construction and they might be complete by Q1 2023. However, please explain how the LNG sitting in a port in Spain will benefit Germany now?

  On 10/31/2022 at 2:13 AM, Cqman said:

So much non sense on this matter.

While would Russia build a pipeline for $10b then blow it up ?

One country always did everything so this pipeline would not operate: US. Biden said in January that US will do everything so this pipeline won't operate.

Whoever blow it up was working for US.

The consequences of this pipeline blowing up are: German industry (which mostly uses gas) will disappear or being moved to US for cheaper gas. Dirty gas from US, which was forbidden to be imported in European Union's countries is now welcome and 4 times the price of Russian gas we use to import.

As someone said, follow the money and everything turns clear.

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You make a lot of assumptions. The pipelines  were paid in large part by Europeans. Yes, Gazprom owned 50% of the first pipeline, but that doesn't mean Gazprom or the Russians paid 50% of the costs. They did what anyone with a product in high demand does, and had the customer pay the cost of delivery.  The financing of the pipelines is not particularly transparent, but it is obvious that the consumers of the gas financed much of the pipeline. As for the 2nd pipeline, financing was structured such that all financial costs were and still are, carried by the European customers.

The last thing the USA needs or wants is an increase in oil prices and that is what a disruption in Russian supply results in. As gas prices increase in the USA, the small minded consumer American always blames the incumbent US government. Therefore, it was in the US government's best interest to ensure that that pipeline operated.  On the contrary, the Russians with nothing to lose and aware that they would lose oil revenues opted to inflict as much economic pain on the west and took their hit now.

More importantly, the  destruction of the pipeline would never be authorized by a sitting western government. There are checks and balances and secrets like that are not kept.  Blaming the US or UK for the sabotage is typical Russian deflection and  we have been through this before, particularly with the  Russian backed hacking sabotage of the North American power grid some years ago.

[Viggen840]

  On 10/30/2022 at 8:15 AM, 23RD said:

it definitely wasn't The Russians themselves because that would have been their biggest own goal ever

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Beg to differ - how about another false flag event to pretend they are the offended party?

[Fanta]

  On 10/31/2022 at 4:10 AM, Vigo said:

How exactly is Germany going to import this American LNG?

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Spain has two low-capacity links to France’s gas network, which has connections to the rest of Europe. And Spain, Germany and France are working on a proposal to build a higher capacity pipeline to central Europe.

https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/international/france-plans-pipeline-from-spain-to-central-europe-for-new-energy-sources-122083100144_1.html

[EdwardV]

  On 10/31/2022 at 3:31 AM, Fanta said:

It helps the same way that sanctions help Ukraine - by weakening their enemy. It also removes any hesitancy towards cutting ties with Russia by some countries in the West. Plus Ukraine can always unthrottle the Russian gas running through it’s country - for a suitably inflated price. 

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You said a lot without actually saying anything. The gas had already been shut off, it doesn’t weaken Russia to blow up NS1. The gas from NS1 only goes to Germany. Blowing NA1 doesn’t cut ties with other western countries, only Germany. The last one only makes sense if NA1 was shipping gas. Ukraine doesn’t get to set the price or quantity of gas sold. They only get a transit fee and that ironically comes from Russia. 
 

  On 10/31/2022 at 3:44 AM, Tim_Melb said:

If the Nordstream pipelines are blown up what other pipelines are available for Russia to use to sell gas to Western Europe? And where are those pipelines? 

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There is a major line running through Belarus and two more going through Ukraine. There is also a line under the Black Sea and one directly to Turkey. All feed into Europe. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png

[23RD]

  On 10/31/2022 at 4:21 AM, Viggen840 said:

Beg to differ - how about another false flag event to pretend they are the offended party?

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False flag events now where have we seen that before?.