Solar-induced Weather anomaly .... or Climate Change?

[KaptainRob]

This year has already seen a plethora of extreme weather events across all continents and there appears no end to these disastrous Tropical Storms, drought, fire and floods.   Is it down to Climate Change or something else ....?

In my opinion it's a combination of events and even scientists can't agree on certain aspects so it's convenient to blame all on Climate Change.  Fair enough too, as it's likely the predominant factor, but there's something else which is aiding the severity of current weather patterns .... intense Solar activity.

The Sun is the prime mover of our fragile planet's weather and goes through approximately 11-year cycles of activity, the last HIGH peaking in 2014.   Each high tends to last ~4 years.  See graph here > https://t-weather.net/sun-prediction.php

Current solar activity is already massively more intense than predicted and may only begin to peak late 2023 thru to 2025.  Not good news for little old planet earth!  While it is generally accepted that the Sun is emitting more radiation (heat), it's the sunspots (flares) which disrupt Earth's protective magnetic mantle and cause problems.  Some experts believed the effect on Earth's warming to be minor compared with man-made emissions.  More here > https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sun-spots-and-climate-change/   (note the date of publication)

Industrial-induced climate change is a major problem and one might expect a gradual linear increase in adverse weather patterns but in my opinion, solar radiation has added the heating of our oceans - after all, it's the oceans which absorb the radiation and store heat.  We've seen the effects in coral reef decay and artic ice melt.

The more recent and massive rise in ocean temperatures has in turn created greater evaporation, cloud, precipitation and or wind storms.

As to exactly what percentages may be attributed to Solar activity and CO2 emissions, scientists haven't figured it out yet but this 14 year old article provides some clues > > https://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2008/solar_variability.html

Here's an excerpt:- 
Before the Industrial Age, the sun and volcanic eruptions were the major influences on Earth's climate change. Earth warmed and cooled in cycles. Major cool periods were ice ages, with the most recent ending about 11,000 years ago.

"Right now, we are in between major ice ages, in a period that has been called the Holocene,” said Cahalan. “Over recent decades, however, we have moved into a human-dominated climate that some have termed the Anthropocene. The major change in Earth's climate is now really dominated by human activity, which has never happened before."

 .....roll on the next Ice Age 

[Shade_Wilder]

Interesting write-up KR, and you may well be correct; I don't really have the educational background and/or technical knowledge to have an informed opinion on how much solar activity influences things.

However, does it really matter?

I have read many items on Climate Change, here and elsewhere, and many different theories are presented; solar cycle(s), a natural heating and cooling of the planet, the interplay of specific gases in the atmosphere, etc., etc., etc. In all the various theories presented, there is a common denominator; man-made carbon in the atmosphere. Yup, there are great arguments regarding what percentage of gases are natural vs created, what amount of solar radiation is pertinent, what stage of a solar and/or natural heating/cooling cycle we are in, etc., etc., etc., but there is one constant; man-made carbon in the atmosphere.

And, when the question arises of what we need to do to combat Climate Change, the same outcome pops its weary head up again and again and again; man-made carbon in the atmosphere needs to be addressed.

I used to think that dealing with Climate Change was an incredibly complex endeavor, but I have changed my mind. Whether the climate is changing (and it is; recall those days a short while ago when it was over 40 degrees Celsius in the UK and tell me Climate Change isn't happening) is a closed question and what matters is what we, as a species, are going to do about it.

The one variable that we can control is... wait for it... man-made carbon in the atmosphere.

If you accept that Climate Change is, at bare minimum, partially (I would say 'mostly', but don't want to argue anymore) caused by man-made carbon in the atmosphere, then the answer is quite simple; reduce  the amount of man-made carbon going to our atmosphere to zero and allow Mother Nature to (hopefully!) deal with the rest.

Everything else is faff and details.

In my eyes, the only remaining question is whether we will stop talking and start acting in time.

[KaptainRob]

  On 9/25/2022 at 8:11 AM, Shade_Wilder said:

If you accept that Climate Change is, at bare minimum, partially (I would say 'mostly', but don't want to argue anymore) caused by man-made carbon in the atmosphere, then the answer is quite simple; reduce  the amount of man-made carbon going to our atmosphere to zero and allow Mother Nature to (hopefully!) deal with the rest.

Everything else is faff and details.

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I accept man-made carbon is the primary cause of climate change, but what we don't yet know for certain, is WHY this sudden onset of severe weather has occurred.   As I opined, I believe it to be solar-induced.

I studied weather long before computer modelling was available, as for for offshore passages it was essential, and later a requirement for a skippers ticket.  I've always been fascinated by cause an effect and it's interesting to note the current rise in ocean temperatures is turning the waters more acidic, (lower Ph) hence coral reef bleaching.  The cause is too much CO2 being absorbed by ocean water.

The oceans need to be protected as much if not more than all other living things on dry ground, including us.

A super-volcanic eruption (or nuclear war) could plunge our planet into an extended Winter of little or no sunlight .... many living things would perish but it might just reset the balance. I'm not sure what else can.

Better to just wait out the next Ice Age .... 

[KaptainRob]

Research into Climate Change is laborious and often involves computer modelling of the past, the distant past, even before dinosaurs roamed our planet.  For those who are interested in good reads on the subject >

Tectonic plate movement can speed up global warming  - fascinating research, an excerpt below:-
 

  Quote

between 14 and 17 million years ago, known as the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) period, temperatures soared (around 10°C higher than today) and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels rose to 1,000 parts per million (PPM) against the current 419 PPM, leading to the disappearance of glacial masses and several species.  Several such episodes of global warming in the past have always baffled scientists. Humans were not responsible for this warming as they arrived about 15 million years after MCO

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Source: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/

Another article from the same source summarises:-  [Full article HERE]
 

  Quote

What they found was alarming: if emissions continue to climb and temperatures reach around 4.9 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, close to about 40 per cent of marine genera could perish by 2300 and 8 per cent by 2100. They published their findings in Science in 2022.

The global average temperature in the current Anthropocene era is already up by 1.1 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. It is predicted to increase by 5 degrees Celsius by 2100 if the world takes the high GHGs emission trajectory.

The oceans, too, are accumulating heat and losing oxygen rapidly - events that are reminiscent of the Permian era. According to the IPCC’s “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, due to warming of the seas, species have travelled poleward at the rate of 59 km per decade on average.

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[palooka]

Great thread thanks both of you for the input.

Personally think that the CSIRO Conference back in the late 80's may have influenced and helped but the Pollies World Wide were not interested, ie  read money men, big corporations etc. the average Joe didn't have a clue so no input.

Bottom line of that conference was that massive changes had to be made by 2015.  They weren't - for what ever reason so we are left with  the world we live or allowed to be created.

Personally think the planet Earth will fight back probably to the detriment of mankind.

Maybe it is fighting back via climate change?

[KaptainRob]

  On 9/29/2022 at 1:13 PM, palooka said:

Pollies World Wide were not interested

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Unfortunately Western Pollies get elected for short terms and are really only interested in lining their pockets during their short time in the 'sun'.  By the time they realise something has to be done it's invariably too late or too little ... and what to do with the World's worst emitters of CO2, China and India?

Globalisation was arguably one of the worst 'experiments' we enjoyed for a few decades and look where it's gotten us:- sovereign states splitting away from alliances as in Brexit, the Eu in a terrible mess financially and became too dependant on Russia for energy.  China and India became our 'factories' and aided emissions through transport over long distances.

Over-population is a major problem and if Mother Nature has her way we may see a catastrophic event such as a super-volcanic-eruption or 'Carrington event' take care of numbers.  Scary stuff.

[KaptainRob]

Arctic Ocean acidifying up to four times as fast as other oceans, study finds

The Guardian report may be read here > click <

Excerpt:- 

Researchers from the Polar and Marine Research Institute at Jimei University, China, and the School of Marine Science and Policy at the University of Delaware in the US, say rapid sea-ice loss exposes seawater to the atmosphere, promoting takeup of carbon dioxide at a faster rate than in the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, Antarctic and sub-Antarctic basins.