News Forum - Putin declares Mariupol ‘liberated’ despite Ukrainian troops, civilians holding out

[EdwardV]

23 minutes ago, Fanta said:

Who called Russia’s actions blackmail? 
It is a sanction on payments in US dollars for Russian energy products. Pot Kettle Black.

And the gas is back on again so they must have worked out a suitable arrangement that can avoid sanctions.

You mean besides Ukraine, the EU and counties involved?

The contract agreed to by Russia said payments would be in dollars or euros. The “sanction” is symbolic in nature since Russia actually needs the foreign currency more than the symbolism behind getting paid in rubles. I get why they want it, just it’s symbolic at best. I still don’t see the hypocrisy. One is a ban, against the use of rubles. One is a demand, must use rubles. Russia could trade in Yuan or say Bolivars. However European countries have to use Rubles. 
 

That’s an assumption. It might have been Russia just decided they wanted the dollars or euros after all. Considering Poland had already said it’s ok to turn off the gas, why would they then buckle and pay in rubles? I don’t see any other agreement available? 

[cowslip]

Whatever happens Russia cannot get what it wants. A military victory would result in a population that doesn't want them there - that will continue for generations.... they failed in Afghanistan and will do so in Ukraine.

The other alternative appears to be the Total obliteration of Russia, the West and probably S.E Asia via N.and S. Korea.

[Fanta]

It’s a bit rich to demand that contracts made by Russia be honored to the letter when sanctions against Russia have caused contracts not to be honored at all. And the sanctions are hardly symbolic if we are to believe the reports of Russian airlines in peril and the ruble being hammered etc. The currency wars are just another angle of attack from both sides. Blackmail is such a deliciously criminal sounding word and implies an inexcusable act so I understand why some choose to use it. I want Ukraine  to win decisively. That said, I do wish I had bought some rubles a month or so back ;-)

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, oldschooler said:

Ukrainians get to decide , exclusively, how best to defend their homeland and how to treat the savage invaders. 

Russian GC Violations = Ukraine “ Open Season” on Russian Murderers, Torturers & Rapists. Natural Justice.

Overwhelming Evidence so far of Russian Atrocities such that UK / EU Govts. have declared them as Facts even as EU investigators complete the evidence gathering for ICC court.

Don’t need a court to tell me the Arctic is cold or water is wet.

Any links for this evidence? Not stories from the media but actual reports

Wouldn't mind a look. 

I'm wary you see due to the overwhelming evidence from western media and governments that saddam had WMD which turned out to be nothing more than lies and I'm a lot more sceptical of what they present because of that. 

Ukraine aren't deciding anything without NATO say so. In fact without NATO Ukraine can't do anything much at all

[Rookiescot]

So what do we know so far about Czar Putins illegal invasion of the Ukraine after 2 months of war?

1. Czar Putin is a liar. We all knew that anyway but he spent weeks denying his troops were going to invade right up to the point where they did invade.

2. The Russian war machine is a paper tiger. Its attacks on Kyiv (note spelling) in order to force regime change were stopped and ultimately reversed. It is struggling to make any further headway into east Ukraine and the much vaunted land bridge between Russia and the Crimea is under constant attack. It has still failed to take Mariupol. Those people carry on fighting because they want to kill Czar Putins thugs and not because they enjoy the lifestyle.

3. In the areas around Kyiv which the Russian thugs had occupied 1000's of civilians were rounded up and executed. Thats a fact. Unless of course you want to argue that people can manage to commit suicide while their hands are tied behind their backs. 1000's of Ukrainians are having to queue to identify their relatives from among the dead found. 

4. Russia now finds itself with very few allies. China has not supported the invasion (although it does not condemn it either) and internationally Czar Putin is now a pariah. The Russian economy is on its tits. Attempts to force nations to pay for gas/oil in Rubles is a non starter. Its also running out of hard currencies and finds it cannot borrow. 

5. Sanctions have also massively hit Russias ability to produce replacement weapons lost or used. Indeed it is now running out of some weapons systems. 

6. Air superiority has still not been achieved. I find this the most surprising thing in all of this. I do wonder why this is. Russian helicopter gunships are essentially useless given the supply of anti aircraft missiles the west has provided. Seems Russian attack helicopters have zero defense against these. 

7. The Ukraine is not going to appease Czar Putins demands. It evidently, from a military standpoint, sees no reason why it should. It does not believe it is being defeated. Now regardless of any perceived MSM bias that should prove to anyone with half a brain that the Ukraine is not defeated or feels it will be.

Calls from certain Czar Putin appeasers for the Ukraine to throw in the towel evidently cut no ice with them. They have become ever more shrill in their calls for it. It does demonstrate how desperate some are to see the war ended soon in Czar Putins favor as they know the precarious situation his thugs are in. No amount of Russian backed propaganda can hide it. Deflection, whataboutery, personal insults and general disruption to the threads are not working either. 

8. So the Ukrainians are not going to give up and they are simply going to keep getting stronger from a military point of view. Their morale is high and they are motivated to fight this war.

Czar Putins thugs are getting weaker by the day. His military machine is reaching crisis point. His thugs are not motivated and indeed seem to lack discipline and moral fiber. 

9. If it all goes wrong I am sure Czar Putin will be safe in his palace on the black sea (complete with statues and motifs of the double headed eagle) and no-one in Russia is going to take a dim view of his ill advised and illegal invasion.  

[EdwardV]

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

It’s a bit rich to demand that contracts made by Russia be honored to the letter when sanctions against Russia have caused contracts not to be honored at all. And the sanctions are hardly symbolic if we are to believe the reports of Russian airlines in peril and the ruble being hammered etc. The currency wars are just another angle of attack from both sides. Blackmail is such a deliciously criminal sounding word and implies an inexcusable act so I understand why some choose to use it. I want Ukraine  to win decisively. That said, I do wish I had bought some rubles a month or so back ;-)

It's one thing to cancel a contract, it's another to change the terms arbitrarily. Russia can do it, just as the EU countries can refuse. My point was it's being done for political purposes,  not economic ones. Which was the point about it being symbolic (not the sanctions). Russia needs the foreign currency a lot more than to prove a point about being paid in Rubles.  

Alar Karis (the president of Estonia) had a wonderful OpEd piece yesterday where she makes some points about being bold in helping Ukraine. She called for a few things, one of them being a gas escrow account:

As for gas, Estonia has made a proposal to the EU, which is being referred to as “escrow”: Part of the payment for gas will be made directly to Russia, while the other part will be transferred to a separate account, frozen for Ukraine, which will be able to use it in the future to rebuild its destroyed nation. Gas cannot be put back into the ground, so there is no reason to fear that we will receive no gas if we implement this proposal. 

It’s time to be bolder to help Ukraine – POLITICO

She's right, you can't put gas back in the ground. You either ship it or you flare it. Calling Russia's bluff on gas is a lot less risky than doing so over oil. 

I liked the idea about helping Ukraine ship grain and especially the one about beginning training Ukraine troops to use modern western weapons. Should have already been started (and maybe was?). 

Had you bought Rubles, you would be sitting pretty. Of course you can't sell them so it's not real money until you do. Who knows what they would be worth then. The wonders of capital controls. 

[Alavan]

3 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

If it all goes wrong I am sure Czar Putin will be safe in his palace on the black sea (complete with statues and motifs of the double headed eagle) and no-one in Russia is going to take a dim view of his ill advised and illegal invasion.

I think Putin started a war thinking of an easy victory, but now it changed in Putin fighting for his survival (and so do his croonies). If the war doesn't end with a positive result for him, there could be a regime change.
Mind you, Russia has a stronger army and more soldiers than Ukraine. Luckily the Ukranians are doing good, but I fear Russia is to strong to be kicked out of Ukraine. A lot more victims to fall, on both sides.

[EdwardV]

7 hours ago, Fanta said:

What’s the fuss about anyway? Poland can survive without Russian oil and gas as can Bulgaria. It should speed up the transition away from their dependence on Russian energy. Short term pain for a long term gain. 

Seems the EU think's it is an issue: 

A gamble by Kremlin-backed Gazprom to “blackmail" Europe into paying for gas in rubles shook markets but may have backfired, as Brussels vowed to end its Russian energy dependency. Benchmark prices for Dutch TTF gas futures surged well over 20% after Gazprom said it would cut Poland and Bulgaria off, warning other European countries they, too, could be affected if they tried to help. The stunt was all the excuse EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen needed to justify her decision last month to strike new import deals for liquified natural gas from reliable allies including the United States. “It comes as no surprise that the Kremlin uses fossil fuels to try to blackmail us,” she told reporters on Wednesday. “But Russia is only hurting itself.” ... EU Commission President von der Leyen meanwhile warned Moscow it could expect further reprisals as the 27 member-bloc was hard at work on a sixth package of sanctions—purported to include an embargo of Russian crude oil. “Today the Kremlin failed once again in its attempt to sow division among member states,”  von der Leyen said. "The era of Russian fossil fuels in Europe is coming to an end.” 

Gazprom ‘blackmail’ backfires as EU vows to end energy dependence on Russia (msn.com)

Poland will be fine, their storage is at 80% which is unusually high for this time of year. They also have a new LNG port facility for imports, and a natural gas pipeline from Norway that comes on line later this year. I did find this part interesting: 

Gazprom warned, for example, that should any Russian supplies meant to be transiting through Poland and Bulgaria en route to other destinations be diverted to those countries, it would immediately respond with a corresponding drop in export volumes. 

 

 

How do you shut off gas deliveries to countries where your pipeline actually runs through, and think you won't have a problem? 

 

 

[Fanta]

6 hours ago, EdwardV said:

How do you shut off gas deliveries to countries where your pipeline actually runs through, and think you won't have a problem? 

As I said, what’s all the fuss about anyway :-)

This is a spectacular own goal from Russia.  Europe has to pay more for fossil fuels in the short term but the long term could be a different story. Any contracts with Russia up for renewal after the war will most likely go up in price. I wonder if the civilians in the Mariupol steelworks heard the news. 

 

[EdwardV]

36 minutes ago, Fanta said:

This is a spectacular own goal from Russia.  Europe has to pay more for fossil fuels in the short term but the long term could be a different story. Any contracts with Russia up for renewal after the war will most likely go up in price. I wonder if the civilians in the Mariupol steelworks heard the news. 

I don’t think Russia oil will last short term. The EU is getting ready to ban it, and even an offer last week of Urals Brent went unsold. Russia future in oil will be a fraction of what they sold before invading, and will have to continue to offer huge discounts to sell that. It’s gas that’s going to stay strong. Even then Europe will slowly wean themselves off of it. Russia’s long term future will be on skid row.

[Fanta]

33 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

I don’t think Russia oil will last short term. The EU is getting ready to ban it, and even an offer last week of Urals Brent went unsold. Russia future in oil will be a fraction of what they sold before invading, and will have to continue to offer huge discounts to sell that. It’s gas that’s going to stay strong. Even then Europe will slowly wean themselves off of it. Russia’s long term future will be on skid row.

In 2019, 15% of China’s oil imports came from Russia.  The Wikipedia article about China’s energy imports is well outdated. And India has increased their purchases of Russian oil. Oil and gas aren’t luxury items and the almighty buck triumphs over moral stances. imo, after this mess dies down energy trading will continue unabated if conflicts involving other energy exporting countries are anything to go by. Germany seems to be the only country making good on their commitment to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Russia better snuggle up to their new bed buddies because they are going to be joined at the hip for quite some time yet.

[Fester]

23 minutes ago, Fanta said:

In 2019, 15% of China’s oil imports came from Russia.  The Wikipedia article about China’s energy imports is well outdated. And aindia has increased their purchases of Russian oil. Oil and gas aren’t luxury items and the almighty buck triumphs over moral stances. imo, after this mess dies down energy trading will continue unabated if conflicts involving other energy exporting countries are anything to go by. Germany seems to be the only country making good on their commitment to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Russia better snuggle up to their new bed buddies because they are going to be joined at the hip for quite some time yet.

New bed buddies! 

[EdwardV]

12 minutes ago, Fanta said:

In 2019, 15% of China’s oil imports came from Russia.  The Wikipedia article about China’s energy imports is well outdated. And aindia has increased their purchases of Russian oil. Oil and gas aren’t luxury items and the almighty buck triumphs over moral stances.

First China. In energy they believe in strategic security. Translation = diversification. They might increase their purchases somewhat, but they won’t do so in a large way. They just signed new deals with Saudi Arabia and don’t want to become the next Germany. There are other issues involved too. The oil that is sold to Europe comes from the large western fields, that to China from the smaller eastern ones. The two don’t connect. To build a pipeline between the two, well it’s a distance about from anchorage to Miami over virgin frontier. A minimum a decade if not longer. The pipelines that run to China are already maxed out. In addition the eastern Siberia fields are some of the toughest to develop in the world. The Russians don’t run them, they hired that out to the experts, the Brits and Americans. Those guys are all gone now, and those fields will slowly atrophy over the next two years. If anything, it’s more likely the Chinese will be buying less oil, not more. 
 

Next India. Even with their big increase, it’s still only makes up a small fraction of what they buy. They are only interested because of the huge discount ($25-30 per barrel), otherwise it makes more sense for them to stick with their existing Middle East suppliers. There are no pipelines, everything has to go by a long boat trip. Once NATO cuts off access it’s all over. Don’t say that won’t happen, Greece just impounded a Russian oil tanker a few weeks ago. In addition they have been under a lot of pressure to stop and have only been able to push off because the EU is still buying. Last I understand India and Russia have a long and special relationship. That’s ending. They just canceled a huge helicopter order and will in the end pick the west to balance against China. Of course the EU has to ban Russian oil first or they will keep buying hahaha. 

[Fanta]

12 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

First China. In energy they believe in strategic security. Translation = diversification. They might increase their purchases somewhat, but they won’t do so in a large way. They just signed new deals with Saudi Arabia and don’t want to become the next Germany. There are other issues involved too. The oil that is sold to Europe comes from the large western fields, that to China from the smaller eastern ones. The two don’t connect. To build a pipeline between the two, well it’s a distance about from anchorage to Miami over virgin frontier. A minimum a decade if not longer. The pipelines that run to China are already maxed out. In addition the eastern Siberia fields are some of the toughest to develop in the world. The Russians don’t run them, they hired that out to the experts, the Brits and Americans. Those guys are all gone now, and those fields will slowly atrophy over the next two years. If anything, it’s more likely the Chinese will be buying less oil, not more. 
 

Next India. Even with their big increase, it’s still only makes up a small fraction of what they buy. They are only interested because of the huge discount ($25-30 per barrel), otherwise it makes more sense for them to stick with their existing Middle East suppliers. There are no pipelines, everything has to go by a long boat trip. Once NATO cuts off access it’s all over. Don’t say that won’t happen, Greece just impounded a Russian oil tanker a few weeks ago. In addition they have been under a lot of pressure to stop and have only been able to push off because the EU is still buying. Last I understand India and Russia have a long and special relationship. That’s ending. They just canceled a huge helicopter order and will in the end pick the west to balance against China. Of course the EU has to ban Russian oil first or they will keep buying hahaha. 

There is no doubt the latest action from Russia is a self inflicted gunshot wound. It is not fatal but could cause a terminal illness. Only 50% of Russian oil exports are sent by pipelines and those to China are running under capacity. China  signed a pact with Russia days prior to the invasion that few acknowledge or give any weight to. We will see. India will claim economic necessity to either justify their energy purchases from Russia or to demand a discount off elevated prices others. It is a free market economy. The cancellation of Russian helicopter order as evidence of the beginning of the end for a long term relationship ignores the fact that India has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, opposed any sanctions against Russia nor moved to reduce Russian imports. That lot are as thick as thieves.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/russia-crude-oil-pipeline-capabilities-to-mainland-china-the-espo-crude-oil-pipeline/

[EdwardV]

2 minutes ago, Fanta said:

China  signed a pact with Russia days prior to the invasion that few acknowledge or give any weight to. We will see. India will claim economic necessity to either justify their energy purchases from Russia or to demand a discount off elevated prices others. It is a free market economy. The cancellation of Russian helicopter order as evidence of the beginning of the end for a long term relationship ignores the fact that India has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, opposed any sanctions against Russia nor moved to reduce Russian imports. That lot are as thick as thieves.

The pack Russia and China signed was to build yet another pipeline, they did that this February. That will take a half dozen years to build, but it will come from the eastern Siberia fields. You know the ones Russia doesn’t have the technical know how to run (hence why they paid extra to have westerners run it instead). Oh and don’t look to the Chinese to do it either. 
 

Didn’t India just abstain in a vote at the UN a few weeks ago. This after being told by the Russians any abstentions in said vote will be taken as a vote against them? I wouldn’t read too much into India’s refusal to condemn Russia. They have a long history of not taking sides. At the same time they have been very vocal about demanding an immediate ceasefire. They are basically playing both sides, par for the course for them. The helicopter order is big, it’s a sign India is turning away from Russian weapon purchases. You can probably blame the poor performance in Ukraine for that. 
 

I certainly do agree with that last sentence. 

[Fanta]

3 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

The pack Russia and China signed was to build yet another pipeline, they did that this February

I was referring to the intent of the overall pact as shown in this particular sentence in the pact. It is now clear what this refers to. 

“Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions, intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, oppose colour revolutions, and will increase cooperation.”

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/729349/EPRS_BRI(2022)729349_EN.pdf

 

 

 

[EdwardV]

9 minutes ago, Fanta said:

I was referring to the intent of the overall pact as shown in this particular sentence in the pact. It is now clear what this refers to. 

I stand corrected, thanks. 
 

Whats that old saying: there is no honor among thieves. Only when China starts shipping weapons to Russia I will believe they truly are besties. 

[vlad]

I posted a few posts back that we can now add Blackmail to Putin's list of offenses and a few members here thought it was not correct that it was not blackmail.  Appears now that most European leaders have now come out and accused Putin of Industrial Blackmail and one member even posted no Poland has had its gas reconnected.

Do I hear a pot calling the kettle black?

Russian gas supply to Poland resumes; Ukraine condemns 'gas blackmail'

Russian gas supplies to Poland were halted briefly on Wednesday, data from the European 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-27/ukraine-russia-invasion-war-kyiv-zelenskyy-live-updates/101017174

Gazprom cut the gas to Poland yesterday as i posted, today is and will remain off.

 

 

 

 

 

[Fanta]

39 minutes ago, vlad said:

I posted a few posts back that we can now add Blackmail to Putin's list of offenses and a few members here thought it was not correct that it was not blackmail.  Appears now that most European leaders have now come out and accused Putin of Industrial Blackmail and one member even posted no Poland has had its gas reconnected.

Do I hear a pot calling the kettle black?

Russian gas supply to Poland resumes; Ukraine condemns 'gas blackmail'

Russian gas supplies to Poland were halted briefly on Wednesday, data from the European 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-27/ukraine-russia-invasion-war-kyiv-zelenskyy-live-updates/101017174

Gazprom cut the gas to Poland yesterday as i posted, today is and will remain off.

Blackmail or dispute over payment terms. Feel free to call it whatever MSM tells you to. The proposed solution allows European countries to pay in euros or dollars, as per the original contracts, but that detail is left out of the articles claiming Russia is demanding payment in rubles. The devil is often in the details. Hungary agreed to the new payment method 3 weeks ago but that news wasn’t greeted with outrage by MSM. Go figure… 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-working-solution-pay-russian-gas-may-foreign-minister-2022-04-06/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-halting-gas-flows-to-poland-bulgaria-over-payment-terms-11651007170

 

[Fester]

3 hours ago, Fanta said:

I was referring to the intent of the overall pact as shown in this particular sentence in the pact. It is now clear what this refers to. 

“Russia and China stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions, intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext, oppose colour revolutions, and will increase cooperation.”

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/729349/EPRS_BRI(2022)729349_EN.pdf

Unfortunately, I think the full meaning of this statement is yet to be realised. This is a Russo-Chinese joint CYA message, excusing themselves in advance for the planned future military aggression that they have in mind. Using the words stability and interference would be hilarious, if this was not so serious.

[EdwardV]

4 hours ago, Fanta said:

Hungary agreed to the new payment method 3 weeks ago but that news wasn’t greeted with outrage by MSM. Go figure… 

Isn’t Hungary’s president best buddies with Putin? Not sure using them as an example proves much. 

[Marble-eye]

The EU are funding Russia's war in Ukraine, Donald Tusk has just tweeted.

[Fanta]

32 minutes ago, EdwardV said:

Isn’t Hungary’s president best buddies with Putin? Not sure using them as an example proves much. 

Hungary can’t be that bad. Those Ukrainians don’t even pay their gas bill ;-)

I think your hand is weak so I’ll see your Hungary bet with an Austria bluff using the “ special payment plan” and raise you an alleged four European gas buyers including Germany’s #3 gas importer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/four-european-gas-buyers-made-ruble-payments-to-russia
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/28/germanys-uniper-to-pay-for-russian-gas-via-russia-bank-account 

[EdwardV]

2 hours ago, Fanta said:

Hungary can’t be that bad. Those Ukrainians don’t even pay their gas bill ;-)

I think your hand is weak so I’ll see your Hungary bet with an Austria bluff using the “ special payment plan” and raise you an alleged four European gas buyers including Germany’s #3 gas importer.

I actually liked Hungary, still retains a very eastern European flavor. The Ukrainians don't have to pay their bill anymore, they can just tap the line that runs through their country. What's Russia going to do, bomb their country? Joke aside, the pipelines that run through Ukraine are living on borrowed time. Sooner or later one side or the other is going to take them out. Either by accident or on purpose. 

So who won in the stand off? The European countries are still only paying in Euro's, and Russia is getting paid in Rubles? My guess is the Europeans. Putin's bluff was called and he had to come up with a face saving work around. Fact is Russia needs the money too much to cut off supplies. In addition, any European country who was still not sure Russia would weaponize energy, is no longer living in fantasy land. Wars are very expensive endeavors. 

[EdwardV]

4 hours ago, Fanta said:

I think your hand is weak so I’ll see your Hungary bet with an Austria bluff using the “ special payment plan” and raise you an alleged four European gas buyers including Germany’s #3 gas importer.

I see your bet, and raise you $33B: 

President Biden will send the new plan to Congress along with a broader request for $33 billion to help the Ukrainians fight Russia’s invasion. Biden’s funding request includes $20 billion in military assistance for Ukraine, $8.5 billion in economic assistance and $3 billion in humanitarian aid, among other pots of money, such as $500 million to support production of U.S. crops to address the global food shock caused by the war.

Biden seeks $33 billion for Ukraine, powers to liquidate Russian assets (msn.com)