News Forum - Thai health officials predict daily case count of 40,000 – 50,000 by mid-April

[Thaiger]

The Department of Disease Control says Thailand’s daily new Covid cases could reach between 40,000 and 50,000 by the middle of next month. Health officials warn that infections could even rise to 100,000 if current restrictions are eased. According to a Thai PBS World report, officials have called for strict adherence to Level 4 restrictions, particularly in restaurants, bars, and other venues where there are large gatherings. The DDC says if restrictions are strictly complied with, cases could peak at about 20,000 a day. If the country has to move to a Level 5 alert, this would involve re-introducing a […]

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[Guest1]

15 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

Thailand’s daily new Covid cases could reach between 40,000 and 50,000 by the middle of next month

Isn't it more like this, if they just would pcr-test everyone who got testet positive by ATK, sitting without further proof in community quarantine, after, Thailand would long time be near 40k a day?

Or have I misunderstood the one article, some days ago?

The question from more importance, imho, should be: Is the number of know infected people still of relevance? Or is it not only the number of cases, which NEED medical attention? 

And by "need", I mean needing health support in medical facilities.

I just spoke the other day with some local people, who have been in quarantine for 10 days. A complete crew of a business, about 10 people, 2 tested positive (ATK only!), all got tested every 3 days from that on, PLUS:

They all got the 7 day course of medicamentation! Something like 9or10 tabs every day, they said.

Hence the "covid medicine no snacks" comment from one health secretary, the shortage of it, has a man made reason. And, of course, a financial one. They could do a couple of PCR tests, for the cost of a 7 day treatment.

 

[JJJ]

47 minutes ago, Guest1 said:

Isn't it more like this, if they just would pcr-test everyone who got testet positive by ATK, sitting without further proof in community quarantine, after, Thailand would long time be near 40k a day?

Or have I misunderstood the one article, some days ago?

The question from more importance, imho, should be: Is the number of know infected people still of relevance? Or is it not only the number of cases, which NEED medical attention? 

And by "need", I mean needing health support in medical facilities.

I just spoke the other day with some local people, who have been in quarantine for 10 days. A complete crew of a business, about 10 people, 2 tested positive (ATK only!), all got tested every 3 days from that on, PLUS:

They all got the 7 day course of medicamentation! Something like 9or10 tabs every day, they said.

Hence the "covid medicine no snacks" comment from one health secretary, the shortage of it, has a man made reason. And, of course, a financial one. They could do a couple of PCR tests, for the cost of a 7 day treatment.

Cases reaching 40,000 is like saying 98% of all statistics are made up. What a joke. 

The number is not so meaningful but direction has some relevance. But for Thailand there’s no confidence in the numbers so you can’t really say if it’s peaked. Also does anyone really care about these predictions when they haven’t been right once?

And gee Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Vietnam all peaking around the same time no matter how strict the measures. If you want to know the real peak, look to Singapore first  

But still Thailand continues to over hospitalize and over treat covid patients. If you test positive and have no or minimal symptoms just stay at home until your negative probably about 5 days. 
 

Instead everyone wants their free medication of dubious benefit. Meanwhile anyone actually in NEED good luck pushing through the flood. 
 

Healthy people over using limited medical facilities is MUCH MORE selfish than say not wearing a mask or not taking a vaccine IMO. 

[Marc26]

2 hours ago, JJJ said:

Cases reaching 40,000 is like saying 98% of all statistics are made up. What a joke. 

The number is not so meaningful but direction has some relevance. But for Thailand there’s no confidence in the numbers so you can’t really say if it’s peaked. Also does anyone really care about these predictions when they haven’t been right once?

And gee Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Vietnam all peaking around the same time no matter how strict the measures. If you want to know the real peak, look to Singapore first  

But still Thailand continues to over hospitalize and over treat covid patients. If you test positive and have no or minimal symptoms just stay at home until your negative probably about 5 days. 
 

Instead everyone wants their free medication of dubious benefit. Meanwhile anyone actually in NEED good luck pushing through the flood. 
 

Healthy people over using limited medical facilities is MUCH MORE selfish than say not wearing a mask or not taking a vaccine IMO. 

Thais always take a million pills for any ailment.

So the Covid treatment is just par for the course 

[Fundok]

Looking at those infection rates when Delta (with high lethality) was dominant, made sense. Now that Omikron has taken over, the infection rate is not an indicator to worry too much about, as Omikron is not a killer like Delta. Most countries have decided to unleash Omikron to spread. If you are vaccinated there will be an impact, but you'll survive.

So continue with the vaccination program and don't worry too much about the infection rate, that's my advice.

PS. Given that Thailand doesn't do that much testing anyway (the poitivity rate is well above 5%) the real infection is (and has been) much higher anyway.

[Cabra]

I've take "they have no idea" for $500, Alex. 

[LoongFred]

So what happens to Songkram holidays this year. The cut off was supposed to be 30k I believe. The traffic generated at Songkran is mind boggling and serves to spread the virus everywhere. Also keeping high risk  venues closed would probably help. Things aren't looking good and some still  clamor for loosing restrictions. 

[JJJ]

13 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

So what happens to Songkram holidays this year. The cut off was supposed to be 30k I believe. The traffic generated at Songkran is mind boggling and serves to spread the virus everywhere. Also keeping high risk  venues closed would probably help. Things aren't looking good and some still  clamor for loosing restrictions. 

Well the question is do restrictions delay infection or prevent infection? Early on the theory was delay, delay, delay until the vaccine could prevent. 

There is no plausible path forward that delay means you’re going to prevent infection in the future.

At this point, people had a chance at vaccine and booster. If someone wants to live like a hermit voluntarily knock yourself out. Time to let everyone else start living again. 

[LoongFred]

37 minutes ago, JJJ said:

Well the question is do restrictions delay infection or prevent infection? Early on the theory was delay, delay, delay until the vaccine could prevent. 

There is no plausible path forward that delay means you’re going to prevent infection in the future.

At this point, people had a chance at vaccine and booster. If someone wants to live like a hermit voluntarily knock yourself out. Time to let everyone else start living again. 

Slowing things down makes sense, especially waiting  for effective therapeutics to be available. You can risk it but I think it's wrong to expect other to follow along. 

[JJJ]

23 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

Slowing things down makes sense, especially waiting  for effective therapeutics to be available. You can risk it but I think it's wrong to expect other to follow along. 

I understand the sentiment. But honestly one is not allowed to “risk” it.

We’re all told you must do this, this, and this to prevent spread. For those who don’t want to risk it, no one forces you to leave the house or take off the mask.

That’s fine but it’s time to stop telling other people you can’t live normally because others are afraid. 

I understand you MIGHT tell someone that when people “risking” it would lead to overcrowding and thin resources. I understood flatten the curve at the beginning — but it wasn’t supposed to be flatten your life. We’re well past that resource constraint. 

[Cabra]

We're already at 60k when you add in ATK. And still only 54 daily deaths (as of today). 

[Cabra]

1 hour ago, LoongFred said:

So what happens to Songkram holidays this year. The cut off was supposed to be 30k I believe. The traffic generated at Songkran is mind boggling and serves to spread the virus everywhere. Also keeping high risk  venues closed would probably help. Things aren't looking good and some still  clamor for loosing restrictions. 

My guess is it gets cancelled. And nothing changes (int'l travel restrictions wise) until at least 1 June (when this surge ultimately plays out). My second guess is they extend the emergency decree (that's set to expire 25 March) through to the end of May 2022.

[HiuMak]

Hint is here. The 20,000 threshold controlled level will move to 40,000. 

[LoongFred]

22 hours ago, JJJ said:

I understand the sentiment. But honestly one is not allowed to “risk” it.

We’re all told you must do this, this, and this to prevent spread. For those who don’t want to risk it, no one forces you to leave the house or take off the mask.

That’s fine but it’s time to stop telling other people you can’t live normally because others are afraid. 

I understand you MIGHT tell someone that when people “risking” it would lead to overcrowding and thin resources. I understood flatten the curve at the beginning — but it wasn’t supposed to be flatten your life. We’re well past that resource constraint. 

As a falang I'm basically a guest in Thailand and need to follow the public health rules they set. No one forces me to stay here so my choice is to social distance wear a mask and accept that restaurants have limited hours. Easy for me to do, but other guests in Thailand might want to ask what they are doing here, if the rules are too much for them.  Complaining only makes you look as unappreciated. 

[LoongFred]

Just now, LoongFred said:

As a falang I'm basically a guest in Thailand and need to follow the public health rules they set. No one forces me to stay here so my choice is to social distance wear a mask and accept that restaurants have limited hours. Easy for me to do, but other guests in Thailand might want to ask what they are doing here, if the rules are too much for them.  Complaining only makes you look as unappreciated. 

Risking it also puts others at risk, which is very selfish  IMO. 

[JJJ]

58 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

As a falang I'm basically a guest in Thailand and need to follow the public health rules they set. No one forces me to stay here so my choice is to social distance wear a mask and accept that restaurants have limited hours. Easy for me to do, but other guests in Thailand might want to ask what they are doing here, if the rules are too much for them.  Complaining only makes you look as unappreciated. 

It’s fine to follow and guests should follow local rules especially if they are historical or societal customs.

But covid rules are not a custom or limited to Thailand. They are supposed to be “scientific” and balanced against their costs. You do not need to be Thai to analyze the rules and suggest whether they are worthwhile and their costs  

Many people here are not just tourists. We have businesses and investments. Also while parts of the government want to promote tourism especially “high class” tourists, farangs have a better perspective why “Test & Go 2.0” has failed. 

So I disagree with the notion that if you don’t like it you should just go.