News Forum - First 10 days of February arrival figures for Thailand – Test & Go V2 “sluggish”

[Ksmui]

8 hours ago, vlad said:

Have you not read the headlines today on TT Ksmui ?  " Thailand hopeful to draw Indian Tourists with new travel bubble.

Yes sir!

[Noble_Design]

6 hours ago, Grumpyoldman said:

Well I was generalising to reflect that with Omicron most people, the vast vast majority, don't get symptoms or feel unable to continue their lives, unlike the other versions of the Big C, so you are most likely to mix with an infected person. If one has a sore throat or a sniffle, you aren't going to isolate for 14 days.... well I wouldn't anyway.

And, as usual, it's the unvaccinated and those with pre existing conditions who end up in hospital, so forgive me if I claim the Big O to be nothing more than a cold now for the 75-90% of people with vaccines or natural immunity.

Great maths lesson on this thread!

The Thaiger has allowed several people to have an online maths debate...... hope they don't get into trouble.

Yes indeed the maths lesson is a welcomed changed rather than focusing on something that we all pretty much can't change much (government policies, restrictions, testing requirements etc.)

If the original Alpha is Big C, Delta is Big C Supercenter than Omicron is Mini Big C?

5 hours ago, Chatogaster said:

I'm a retired mathematician so this one tickled me.

Let p be the probability of testing negative (for the sake of the argument, I'll go along with assumption that p is a constant for all tests). There are only 4 cases in which a positive result can be obtained (N stands for negative, P for positive result):

NNNP ↔ probability = p^3 * (1-p)
NNP ↔ p^2 * (1-p)
NP ↔ p^1 * (1-p)
P ↔ p^0 * (1-p)

Note that a scenario like PPNP, i.e. first testing positive twice, then negative once, and finally positive again is not in the state space (since testing stops after 1 positive result) hence the binomial distribution does not apply.

Summing the probabilities above and dividing by 4 gives the average (1 - p^4)/4. Since p = 100-3.3% = 0.967, that amounts to 3.14% (what a nice result!).

However, that result means nothing as the premise about p being a constant is utterly ludicrous.

Thanks for the maths lesson!

4 hours ago, Thommo said:

I should be worried then.  12 tests to date all  due to travel requirement with the 13th on Monday I guess i am Fxxked    fyi to date all have been neg

Well the thing about probability is even if there is a 99% chance you can be positive, there is still that 1% that you will be negative. So think positively and hope to be negatively (if that makes sense)

[ace035]

4 hours ago, Thommo said:

I should be worried then.  12 tests to date all  due to travel requirement with the 13th on Monday I guess i am Fxxked    fyi to date all have been neg

Absolutely, you should be worried. If I was you, prepare to contacting your covid insurance company and if it's Thai covid insurance whether AXA, Tune IPass or Luma, you will not get reimburse after submitting a claim. Be prepare to pay between B100K-B150K upfront both hospital and AQ Hotels, in case of false positive.

[Marc26]

20 minutes ago, ace035 said:

Absolutely, you should be worried. If I was you, prepare to contacting your covid insurance company and if it's Thai covid insurance whether AXA, Tune IPass or Luma, you will not get reimburse after submitting a claim. Be prepare to pay between B100K-B150K upfront both hospital and AQ Hotels, in case of false positive.

So why are you even bothering to plan a trip if you have these thoughts?

 

It's weird why you would want to go, IMO 

[ace035]

8 minutes ago, Marc26 said:

So why are you even bothering to plan a trip if you have these thoughts?

It's weird why you would want to go, IMO 

Just prepare for an unexpected aight, Who knows? It will flip flop around in the next 3-4 months.

[Marc26]

1 minute ago, ace035 said:

Just prepare for an unexpected aight, Who knows? It will flip flop around in the next 3-4 months.

I think it will

But many of your posts are how the government is scamming people and pushing the conspiracy theory that if you test positive you are paying 100's of baht when there has been proof on this forum from 4 or 5 people who tested positive that wasn't the case for them

 

So why bother even planning a trip to a country you feel that way about?

 

It's bizarre to, honestly.. 

 

I'd think there are countless other countries that you can plan a holiday to

[ace035]

8 minutes ago, Marc26 said:

I think it will

But many of your posts are how the government is scamming people and pushing the conspiracy theory that if you test positive you are paying 100's of baht when there has been proof on this forum from 4 or 5 people who tested positive that wasn't the case for them

So why bother even planning a trip to a country you feel that way about?

It's bizarre to, honestly.. 

I'd think there are countless other countries that you can plan a holiday to

I know, you told me that numerous times and I thank you for that, as of right now, I kept following up with TPN and Thaiger about the protocol of hotel isolation in Pattaya for incoming tourists. So, far no development yet. What frustrates me me is they published an article without even verifying with the officials if happen or not. 

Philippines?? I've been there lots of times..MAYBE, Siem Riep, Cambodia, they need Day 1 PCR testing.

Meantime, another victim of false positive in Bangkok, a French national, see article: https://www.thailande-fr.com/tourisme/117753-covid-positif-en-thailande-le-temoignage-troublant-dun-francais

[Marc26]

52 minutes ago, ace035 said:

I know, you told me that numerous times and I thank you for that, as of right now, I kept following up with TPN and Thaiger about the protocol of hotel isolation in Pattaya for incoming tourists. So, far no development yet. What frustrates me me is they published an article without even verifying with the officials if happen or not. 

Philippines?? I've been there lots of times..MAYBE, Siem Riep, Cambodia, they need Day 1 PCR testing.

Meantime, another victim of false positive in Bangkok, a French national, see article: https://www.thailande-fr.com/tourisme/117753-covid-positif-en-thailande-le-temoignage-troublant-dun-francais

Siem Reap is amazing

And if you never been and Angkor Wat is fully open, it would be a great time to go with less crowds

 

For me, it wasn't a huge party holiday when I went there because I was up super early every day to go to the temples

 

But their walking street and entertainment area is busy enough that I'd imagine there is still enough going on

 

 

[Fundok]

8 hours ago, LoongFred said:

Interesting, previously posters were complaining about the low numbers in Thailand now they are complaining a about false positives. If Thailand used a high cut off to reduce false positives the number of true positives will be lower not higher. 

Most posters here know nothing about testing, but this doesn't stop them from having opinions.

"False positives" are not uncommon, depending on the quality of the test kit. For those with a false positive test it means they are treated as if they are infected where in reality they are not. So they will be subjected to the whole program, quarantine etc. And the false positive has no way to prove he/she is not infected and has to endure the 10 day program.

This is not related to the number of tests that are conducted in total.

[Fundok]

On 2/11/2022 at 2:46 PM, vlad said:

Just remind me what the figures that TAT and AOT spokesmen constantly pumped out regarding Estimated figures per Month was it 400,000 or 1.5 Million per month of Tourists.

These numbers are nothing but wishful thinking. Total negation of the reality.

[DonnoAus]

11 hours ago, Fundok said:

"Of the 1,832 people that arrived and subsequently testing positive…

Russian 18.7%

Kazakhstani 7%"

 

So 25% of those travellers testing positive coming from those two jurisdictions. Maybe it would make sense to do something about that rather than making all travellers undergo that pointless test on day 5.

 

You have misinterpreted how these percentages were calculated.  It is saying that 18.7% of travellers from Russia tested positive on arrival (or within 7 or 10 days). This is an indication that the Russian pre-travel Covid tests are inadequate.  I also read comments from a Russian who had experienced such a test.

However, I agree with your final point - by focussing on travellers from Russia and Kazakhstan, the Thai government could stop a lot of these "cases from overseas".

 

[Fundok]

On 2/11/2022 at 2:36 PM, Freeduhdumb said:

How about this? Someone confirm my logic on this please.

To start with, you can't say that with increasing tests your chances of testing positive goes down because you were negative on the first test to get into Thailand. So to the contrary, your chances would in fact be increasing if your second of four tests comes up positive. With that being said, let us just take a neutral calculus for the sake of ease and general ruminating shall we. Let's use the 3.3% statistic across the board. Let's see... That's one test to get in, one on arrival day, one on day 5(7) and one to go home... that's a total of 4 tests for the average tourist.

3.3% X 4 tests = a 13.2% chance of coming up positive on your holiday in Thailand?

You are on the wrong track here.

1. The 3,3% related to the number of inbound tourists, not of the total number of tests in Thailand.

2. The probability of testing positive ist not related to the number of tests. If you are negative, you are negative and remain negative, irrespective how many tests you take (let's take aside the topic of false positive tests). Maybe this helps: if a female ist not pregnant, she can make as many pregancy tests as she sees fit and the testing will not increase her risk of testing positive.

3. The Covid risk driver is the test in day 5, as you had ample time (5 days) to infect yourself in Thailand. 

 

[Fundok]

25 minutes ago, DonnoAus said:

You have misinterpreted how these percentages were calculated.  It is saying that 18.7% of travellers from Russia tested positive on arrival (or within 7 or 10 days). This is an indication that the Russian pre-travel Covid tests are inadequate.  I also read comments from a Russian who had experienced such a test.

However, I agree with your final point - by focussing on travellers from Russia and Kazakhstan, the Thai government could stop a lot of these "cases from overseas".

No, I just added the figures for Russia and Kazakhstan (18%+7%). Not sure what the root cause ist. Maybe fake or insufficient vaccination, or fake pre-departure tests, or both. 

[okumurahata]

 

Let’s define p as the probability to test positive and q as the probability to test negative (p = 1 - p). As there are 3 mandatory tests in Thailand, then:

P₁ = p
P₂ = qp
P₃ = qqp

P_positive = P₁ || P₂ || P₃ = P₁ + P₂ + P₃ = p + qp + qqp =  3.3%

As q = 1 - p,  then:

P_positive = p + (1- p)p + (1 - p)(1 - p)p = 0.033

p ≈ 0.01112 ≈ 1.112%

There is a chance of ~1.112% of testing positive on each test.

 

[Thommo]

7 hours ago, ace035 said:

Absolutely, you should be worried. If I was you, prepare to contacting your covid insurance company and if it's Thai covid insurance whether AXA, Tune IPass or Luma, you will not get reimburse after submitting a claim. Be prepare to pay between B100K-B150K upfront both hospital and AQ Hotels, in case of false positive.

fyi  it would not cost me even 1 baht   I not worried at all  

[Fundok]

18 hours ago, Thommo said:

What fines ?  lets be real   I have been fined twice for speeding in Phuket via a speed camera.  500  baht each time   my colleagues said dont pay no problem     FINES      

They'll check at the airport. At least they did when I left Phuket about a month. As they do with overstayers. Traffic fines are different. They are not (yet?) sophisticated enough to capture that. In the USA and Australia they keep a record, and the fine keeps increasing because it's overdue. Should you ever return they'll get you upon entry. Within the EU, there are multilateral agreements in place where traffic fines in excess of 70 EUR can be enforced in your home jurisdiction. So if you were caught speeding in your holidays you'll have to pay even if you live elsewhere in the EU.

[Koen]

So you have 4 - 5 % of the number of tourists of what was before.  I told you a month ago: No way tourists come to such test and go (and test again) schemes. Bye bye tourist season February - March 2022!    when Thailand opens up, give us a shout. Remove those tourist markets for now that don't even bother about proper vaccination with ineffective vaccins and fake PCR tests, and show up with abnormal high % positivity rates spoiling it for those few that try to come in under the Test and Go scheme..

[Poolie]

2 hours ago, Koen said:

So you have 4 - 5 % of the number of tourists of what was before.  I told you a month ago: No way tourists come to such test and go (and test again) schemes. Bye bye tourist season February - March 2022!    when Thailand opens up, give us a shout. Remove those tourist markets for now that don't even bother about proper vaccination with ineffective vaccins and fake PCR tests, and show up with abnormal high % positivity rates spoiling it for those few that try to come in under the Test and Go scheme..

Will do, in fact a huge yell just for you! OK? See you then!!

[Bankerman]

Yes Poolie you are right, the first three weeks of our holiday was spoilt by first me testing Detected on the 2nd PCR test on day 5 then a few days later my wife who was tested negative went for a pre-arranged toe op in a hospital having taken a clear Antigen test she then got PCR tested there but it showed Detected (neither of us had any symptoms but are 70 years old). Her op was immediately cancelled and under guard she was incarcerated in the isolation wing, we couldn't get any information as to whether the Tune Insurance would cover costs and no one at this hospital could speak or understand English in any comprehensible way. She was released after 5 days to home isolation (in our non SHA hotel) for a further 5 days. In the end Tune Luna insurance were great and settled all costs directly with the hospital. My wife has now had her op and we are moving to a condo in Jomtien to continue our holiday tomorrow hoping to put the trauma of our forced separation this memory behind us. We have been here 5 times using the excellent private health facilities this trip aline we have spent over £12,000 but we would not come again under these rules, it was worse than we imagined. Good luck everyone.

[Bankerman]

6 hours ago, Fundok said:

They'll check at the airport. At least they did when I left Phuket about a month. As they do with overstayers. Traffic fines are different. They are not (yet?) sophisticated enough to capture that. In the USA and Australia they keep a record, and the fine keeps increasing because it's overdue. Should you ever return they'll get you upon entry. Within the EU, there are multilateral agreements in place where traffic fines in excess of 70 EUR can be enforced in your home jurisdiction. So if you were caught speeding in your holidays you'll have to pay even if you live elsewhere in the EU.

I got a speeding ticket in NZ and you have to pay it at the ANZ bank with your passport if you don't the immigration authorities have a flag on your passport so on departure and you get a huge fine and it's an offence. Beware.

[Fundok]

Just now, Bankerman said:

I got a speeding ticket in NZ and you have to pay it at the ANZ bank with your passport if you don't the immigration authorities have a flag on your passport so on departure and you get a huge fine and it's an offence. Beware.

Got caught speeding in Aussie. Was pretty difficult to organize the bank Transfer after I returned to Switzerland as they are obviously not prepared for foreign offenders in Queensland.

[steve99]

On 2/11/2022 at 5:26 PM, Alavan said:

He will be refused at the airport

As it stands for now, Emirates who I am flying with are only demanding the test or conversly no test depending on the country you are traveling to, even transiting Dubai airport.   for eg I am going back to UK so wont need to prove a test. (could change tomorrow though as we all know)

 

''Transiting in Dubai

Before you travel

 

Transiting passengers are not required to present a COVID 19‑PCR test certificate unless it is mandated by their final destination.

Passengers booked with Dubai Connect/Stopover packages must follow the same PCR test requirements as applicable for passengers arriving/entering Dubai.''

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by steve99

[Thommo]

15 hours ago, Fundok said:

They'll check at the airport. At least they did when I left Phuket about a month. As they do with overstayers. Traffic fines are different. They are not (yet?) sophisticated enough to capture that. In the USA and Australia they keep a record, and the fine keeps increasing because it's overdue. Should you ever return they'll get you upon entry. Within the EU, there are multilateral agreements in place where traffic fines in excess of 70 EUR can be enforced in your home jurisdiction. So if you were caught speeding in your holidays you'll have to pay even if you live elsewhere in the EU.

Australia I agree  everything from fines, unpaid child support  orders form the sherrif you will not leave the country unless payed in full.

As for Thailand    I have been caught twice speeding in Germany (speed cameras)  never paid the fines (but the admin fee from the hire car company  was paid) and never had an issue entering or leaving multi times since the last fine.