News Forum - Is Omicron less or more dangerous than earlier Covid variants?

[Thaiger]

A month after the first cases of the Covid-19 variant, Omicron, were officially detected in South Africa, we know a bit more about the potential dangers, but not a lot. Anecdotally, there have been plenty of doctors saying that the new variant appears to produce milder symptoms than earlier variants, as is often the case with these viruses. But they also caution that much of this early commentary can be attributed to the high rates of vaccination and not the actual lethality of the variant. This is also evident in the UK, for example, where Omicron is now forming a […]

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[Manu]

Quote

A month after the first cases of the Covid-19 variant, Omicron, were officially detected in South Africa, we know a bit more about the potential dangers, but not a lot. Anecdotally, there have been plenty of doctors saying that the new variant appears to produce milder symptoms than earlier variants, as is often the case with these viruses. But they also caution that much of this early commentary can be attributed to the high rates of vaccination and not the actual lethality of the variant.

Hang on now...Attributed to high rates of vaccination? Not because the actual lethality of the variant? Why implying this?

The variant has been first discovered on Nov. 9 in South Africa

So in South Africa Nov. 9 - 116 new cases - 24 deaths

A month later Dec. 7 - 6 381 new cases - 1 death

Dec. 15 - 23 857 new cases - 11 deaths.

Fully vaccinated people in South Africa (Dec. 15) - 26,2%

Now how is that surely "attributed to high rate vaccination" and surely NOT "the actual lethality of the variant".

Now surely if this variant was very lethal, or even just more than the previois ones, it should be an hecatombe already in SA with this low rate of vaccination?

Of course, the usual suspectswill argue with me by saying that most of them were young and healthy...well never than before this should show that we shall leave these young people alone (and let them getting immune naturally - and please LEAVE THE KIDS ALONE!!!) and protect (and treat) and vaccinate the vulnerable ones that are in trouble when infected (and we all know who they are surely by now). 0 death will not happen and while the vaccines (and hopefully better and safer ones soon) will save some lives, some will die anyway vaccinated or not.

Is the world going to go back to rationality any time soon? I can see according to the comments on here and all the people I talk to generally that more and more people are realising that and simply had enough and want their freedom back.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Manu

[Ynwaps]

The Thaiger doesn't want to confuse their readers and the journalist who wrote the original article doesn't want to lose their job.  Are you willing to lose yours?

[Cabra]

Early days I would say, but seemingly significantly more transmissible... making more people sick, particularly in the West (and more hospitalizations, particularly among the unvaccinated as reported by hospitals). Seems the jury is still out as to just how deadly Omicron will be. Still would rather be jabbed than not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[quang]

a carrier of the omicron virus has been detected in phuket, this tourist was transferred to pattani hospital where a friend works ... weird, nobody talks about it .

[Stonker]

40 minutes ago, Cabra said:

Early days I would say, but seemingly significantly more transmissible... making more people sick, particularly in the West (and more hospitalizations, particularly among the unvaccinated as reported by hospitals). Seems the jury is still out as to just how deadly Omicron will be. Still would rather be jabbed than not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It's undoubtedly far more transmissible than Delta, so even if it's deadly to less people that still means the effect is worse - 1% of 1,000 is as bad as 10% of 100.

[Manu]

1 hour ago, Cabra said:

Early days I would say, but seemingly significantly more transmissible... making more people sick, particularly in the West (and more hospitalizations, particularly among the unvaccinated as reported by hospitals). Seems the jury is still out as to just how deadly Omicron will be. Still would rather be jabbed than not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Any source that would somehow support that claim about more sick with omicron in hospitals (vaccinated or not)? If you are a older guy or have health issues then you should definitely get vaccinated if you decide to, for the vast majority of the populations, it makes no difference (apart maybe for the few healthy young ones for whom it went wrong with the jab of course).

[Jason]

I think the bottom line at the moment is that we don't know enough about Omicron, but we're going to find out very soon. It is more virulent that's for sure. But we're going to need time to really understand it's seriousness. 

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, Manu said:

Hang on now...Attributed to high rates of vaccination? Not because the actual lethality of the variant? Why implying this?

The variant has been first discovered on Nov. 9 in South Africa

So in South Africa Nov. 9 - 116 new cases - 24 deaths

A month later Dec. 7 - 6 381 new cases - 1 death

Dec. 15 - 23 857 new cases - 11 deaths.

Fully vaccinated people in South Africa (Dec. 15) - 26,2%

Now how is that surely "attributed to high rate vaccination" and surely NOT "the actual lethality of the variant".

Now surely if this variant was very lethal, or even just more than the previois ones, it should be an hecatombe already in SA with this low rate of vaccination?

Of course, the usual suspectswill argue with me by saying that most of them were young and healthy...well never than before this should show that we shall leave these young people alone (and let them getting immune naturally - and please LEAVE THE KIDS ALONE!!!) and protect (and treat) and vaccinate the vulnerable ones that are in trouble when infected (and we all know who they are surely by now). 0 death will not happen and while the vaccines (and hopefully better and safer ones soon) will save some lives, some will die anyway vaccinated or not.

Is the world going to go back to rationality any time soon? I can see according to the comments on here and all the people I talk to generally that more and more people are realising that and simply had enough and want their freedom back.

Initially I wasn't going to bother replying as while some of the 'anti's' here have made valid points, some very valid which have changed my mind on some aspects, I can't recall you ever doing so or ever accepting that anything you said was irrational and uninformed ...

... then I thought 'why not?'

2 hours ago, Manu said:

Hang on now...Attributed to high rates of vaccination? Not because the actual lethality of the variant? Why implying this?

The variant has been first discovered on Nov. 9 in South Africa

So in South Africa Nov. 9 - 116 new cases - 24 deaths

A month later Dec. 7 - 6 381 new cases - 1 death

Dec. 15 - 23 857 new cases - 11 deaths.

Fully vaccinated people in South Africa (Dec. 15) - 26,2%

Now how is that surely "attributed to high rate vaccination" and surely NOT "the actual lethality of the variant".

"Why implying this?"

Because the countries where Omicron is now most prevalent, such as the UK, also have "high rates of vaccination". Even if a double dose of Pfizer or Moderna are only 40% effective, possibly considerably less, that's still 40% less deaths and serious cases.

Although you've cherry-picked it, South Africa isn't the only country with the Omicron variant,  just the first where a case was identified which is probably more due to their advanced testing than it being where the variant developed and it's at least as prevalent if not more elsewhere.

"Plenty of doctors" aren't saying that it's the case for sure, just that there's a possibility and that it's early days to read anything one way or the other.

3 hours ago, Manu said:

Of course, the usual suspectswill argue with me by saying that most of them were young and healthy...well never than before this should show that we shall leave these young people alone (and let them getting immune naturally -

If (IF) most of the hospitalised and dead are "young and healthy" and you "leave these young people alone (and let them getting immune naturally -" they won't be "getting immune naturally", but the only thing they'll be getting is hospitalised and dead. 

Those who aren't hospitalised and dead may well get immunity, although the indications so far are that Omicron doesn't give immunity to anything other than Omicron and even then it's limited, but that's little consolation to the dead and their families.

3 hours ago, Manu said:

... and protect (and treat) and vaccinate the vulnerable ones that are in trouble when infected (and we all know who they are surely by now).

Jesus H Christ.

'Yes', we do know who "the vulnerable ones that are in trouble when infected" are.

Over 40% of the population in most countries.

Obviously they can't be "protected" if the other 60% (or less) don't care and are happy to write them off as long as they can do as they want.

3 hours ago, Manu said:

I can see according to the comments on here and all the people I talk to generally that more and more people are realising that and simply had enough and want their freedom back.

Maybe you need to get your head out of the sand and to meet more people.

More and more people are realising that the only solution is a team effort, and they've had enough of the selfish and the self-centred whose antics are dragging out all the problems, the mask wearing and all the restrictions, and that the sooner everyone works at it and plays their part the sooner everyone will be able to return to normality and get their freedom back, not just the selfish few.

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, Manu said:

If you are a older guy or have health issues then you should definitely get vaccinated if you decide to, for the vast majority of the populations, it makes no difference

What absolute, utter rubbish.

At least 40% of the population are categorised as 'vulnerable' by age or medical condition or both, and a number who aren't will also be hospitalised and die - far, far more than the very, very "few young ones for whom it went wrong with the jab".

If you don't want to be vaccinated for whatever reason, fine, I don't believe you should have to be, but your ignorance, obduracy and deliberate scare-mongering is contributing far more to prolonging and extending restrictions than anything anyone else is doing. ("your" as in you and those like you).

[Cabra]

45 minutes ago, Manu said:

Any source that would somehow support that claim about more sick with omicron in hospitals (vaccinated or not)? If you are a older guy or have health issues then you should definitely get vaccinated if you decide to, for the vast majority of the populations, it makes no difference (apart maybe for the few healthy young ones for whom it went wrong with the jab of course).

In the West, cases are currently spiking and hospitalizations are on the rise. It's theoritically possible it's just Delta rampaging. The timing of omnicron's introduction suggests otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals

There is also data from some jurisdictions that shows unvaccinated being hospitalized at a greater rate. We certainly don't know enough about omicron just yet to say that trend is reversing

https://www.statista.com/chart/26159/covid-cases-us-age-group-vaccination-status/

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf

I would not expect omnicron to flip hospitalization trends in any significant way as it's clearly more transmissible (and the unvaccinated currently being more at risk of hospitalization). To your point, vaccines remain the choice of the individual, as it should be. Highly advisable for older people and those with weaker immune systems.

Granted, recent South Africian analysis suggests the highly transmissible virus may cause less severe disease and that it can be slowed, but not stopped by existing vaccines. The findings are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed but they line up with early anecdotal evidence.

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, Manu said:

Any source that would somehow support that claim about more sick with omicron in hospitals (vaccinated or not)? If you are a older guy or have health issues then you should definitely get vaccinated if you decide to, for the vast majority of the populations, it makes no difference (apart maybe for the few healthy young ones for whom it went wrong with the jab of course).

Do you not have a search engine?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-10-059-more-omicron-cases-recorded-in-uk-three-times-as-many-as-yesterday-12499092

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-us-updates-omicron-variant-will-overwhelm-hospitals-experts-say/255f1760-404f-4466-8432-6f0115b2cd7f

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/1218/1267501-uk-coronavirus/

[vlad]

It appears the Omicron variant is less worrying then Delta but it is still early to think this is less severe. The problem is the speed it is spreading. This Omicron strain spreads faster and can double in 2 days. It has been shown that 1 person infected with Omicron has the potential  possibility to infect 7 people. Knowing how fast this has spread Thailand will suffer if Omicron is detected there. We also know the true figures will never be published if it damages the Tourism industry. 

[nobusinessofurs]

40 minutes ago, Stonker said:

Initially I wasn't going to bother replying as while some of the 'anti's' here have made valid points, some very valid which have changed my mind on some aspects, I can't recall you ever doing so or ever accepting that anything you said was irrational and uninformed ...

... then I thought 'why not?'

"Why implying this?"

Because the countries where Omicron is now most prevalent, such as the UK, also have "high rates of vaccination". Even if a double dose of Pfizer or Moderna are only 40% effective, possibly considerably less, that's still 40% less deaths and serious cases.

Although you've cherry-picked it, South Africa isn't the only country with the Omicron variant,  just the first where a case was identified which is probably more due to their advanced testing than it being where the variant developed and it's at least as prevalent if not more elsewhere.

"Plenty of doctors" aren't saying that it's the case for sure, just that there's a possibility and that it's early days to read anything one way or the other.

If (IF) most of the hospitalised and dead are "young and healthy" and you "leave these young people alone (and let them getting immune naturally -" they won't be "getting immune naturally", but the only thing they'll be getting is hospitalised and dead. 

Those who aren't hospitalised and dead may well get immunity, although the indications so far are that Omicron doesn't give immunity to anything other than Omicron and even then it's limited, but that's little consolation to the dead and their families.

Jesus H Christ.

'Yes', we do know who "the vulnerable ones that are in trouble when infected" are.

Over 40% of the population in most countries.

Obviously they can't be "protected" if the other 60% (or less) don't care and are happy to write them off as long as they can do as they want.

Maybe you need to get your head out of the sand and to meet more people.

More and more people are realising that the only solution is a team effort, and they've had enough of the selfish and the self-centred whose antics are dragging out all the problems, the mask wearing and all the restrictions, and that the sooner everyone works at it and plays their part the sooner everyone will be able to return to normality and get their freedom back, not just the selfish few.

Spoken like a true Globalist, or is it your vested in Pharmaceuticals. And don't come with bs that the sooner we all comply it will end because that shite ain't working either.

[nobusinessofurs]

6 minutes ago, Cabra said:

In the West, cases are currently spiking and hospitalizations are on the rise. It's theoritically possible it's just Delta rampaging. The timing of omnicron's introduction suggests otherwise.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals

There is also data from some jurisdictions that shows unvaccinated being hospitalized at a greater rate. We certainly don't know enough about omicron just yet to say that trend is reversing

https://www.statista.com/chart/26159/covid-cases-us-age-group-vaccination-status/

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf

I would not expect omnicron to flip hospitalization trends in any significant way as it's clearly more transmissible (and the unvaccinated currently being more at risk of hospitalization). To your point, vaccines remain the choice of the individual, as it should be. Highly advisable for older people and those with weaker immune systems.

Granted, recent South Africian analysis suggests the highly transmissible virus may cause less severe disease and that it can be slowed, but not stopped by existing vaccines. The findings are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed but they line up with early anecdotal evidence.

More scare tactics. African Scientists have been ignored from the get go, why because they is no money in it for big pharma and the governments that get their palms greased by pharma

[Rookiescot]

14 minutes ago, nobusinessofurs said:

More scare tactics. African Scientists have been ignored from the get go, why because they is no money in it for big pharma and the governments that get their palms greased by pharma

Conspiracy theory nonsense. African doctors have been listened to but conditions in South Africa are not the same as say the UK.

South African resistance to the virus has been mostly achieved by previously contracting the virus.

In the UK resistance to the virus is mostly achieved by vaccination.

Doctors and scientists are concerned there may be differences in how the virus affects the different populations.

If we had listened to all you anti vaxxers/mask wearers/shutdown conspiracy theory guys the virus would still be killing 1000's every day in the UK alone.

[Jason]

No one really knows yet and to speculate...apart from the fact it is more virulent.... is guessing. I don't know why Tim Newton even attempted an article, as it makes no definitive conclusions. Nor should it at this stage! 

[Cabra]

3 minutes ago, nobusinessofurs said:

More scare tactics. African Scientists have been ignored from the get go, why because they is no money in it for big pharma and the governments that get their palms greased by pharma

Not trying to scare anyone. COVID, regardless of variant, is highly transmissible, and is clogging the healthcare systems of many countries. More people than ever are getting sick. Those are facts. The data reported by numerous healthcare systems shows just that. Is COVID less deadly now... too early to tell. Can/should we learn to live with this level of death... looks like we have to at this point. Pharma is not some evil cabal. They operate for profit like all businesses. If you are anti-business, you will upset all the time about a lot of things. I for one don't like their pricing policies. Just as much as I dislike the price of petrol at the pump. Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending how you look at it, big pharma are the only ones capable of developing life saving drugs that keep diabetes, cancer, and heart disease, etc. at bay. So we live with that too.

[TimothyN]

5 hours ago, Manu said:

Hang on now...Attributed to high rates of vaccination? Not because the actual lethality of the variant? Why implying this?

The variant has been first discovered on Nov. 9 in South Africa

So in South Africa Nov. 9 - 116 new cases - 24 deaths

A month later Dec. 7 - 6 381 new cases - 1 death

Dec. 15 - 23 857 new cases - 11 deaths.

Fully vaccinated people in South Africa (Dec. 15) - 26,2%

Now how is that surely "attributed to high rate vaccination" and surely NOT "the actual lethality of the variant".

Now surely if this variant was very lethal, or even just more than the previois ones, it should be an hecatombe already in SA with this low rate of vaccination?

Of course, the usual suspectswill argue with me by saying that most of them were young and healthy...well never than before this should show that we shall leave these young people alone (and let them getting immune naturally - and please LEAVE THE KIDS ALONE!!!) and protect (and treat) and vaccinate the vulnerable ones that are in trouble when infected (and we all know who they are surely by now). 0 death will not happen and while the vaccines (and hopefully better and safer ones soon) will save some lives, some will die anyway vaccinated or not.

Is the world going to go back to rationality any time soon? I can see according to the comments on here and all the people I talk to generally that more and more people are realising that and simply had enough and want their freedom back.

Manu. The virus couldn't care less what is convenient for you and your friends.

[TimothyN]

23 minutes ago, Jason said:

No one really knows yet and to speculate...apart from the fact it is more virulent.... is guessing. I don't know why Tim Newton even attempted an article, as it makes no definitive conclusions. Nor should it at this stage! 

Just reporting what we know at his time. No speculation, no drama, just quotes and numbers as we know them today.

[Smithydog]

I have been reading multiple news reports and other articles speculating about Omicron.

What strikes me is that we still haven't learnt to wait until real data and scientific study is done before we speculate on the dangers or not, effects or not, etc of the new strain, despite what happened when the Delta strain arrived.

How many, early speculators, once again will be proven wrong again as such information is gathered and analysed properly?

Well, I suppose the speculation keeps people talking. Whether that in itself is a benefit or not I am unsure!

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, nobusinessofurs said:

Spoken like a true Globalist, or is it your vested in Pharmaceuticals.

The point was globally, so it would have been rather disingenuous to have given it any other twist - and I have no vested interest in pharmaceuticals other than what the local hospital gives me or I buy at the town pharmacy.

2 hours ago, nobusinessofurs said:

And don't come with bs that the sooner we all comply it will end because that shite ain't working either.

Maybe it's not working because not enough are complying

[vlad]

So why are so many pregnant woman in Hospital with Covid nobuisnessofurs ? most are not vaccinated reply to that 1. 

[Rain]

None of the strains - original and assorted variants - are/were overwhelmingly dangerous. 

Just assisting for those that might be confused.

 

You're welcome.

[Rain]

7 hours ago, Ynwaps said:

The Thaiger doesn't want to confuse their readers and the journalist who wrote the original article doesn't want to lose their job.  Are you willing to lose yours?

Alai wa!? 

Journalism?

Where?