News Forum - Cambodia, Phillippines report first cases of Omicron Covid-19 variant

[Thaiger]

Omicron appears to be quickly making its way into Southeast Asia, as the Philippines and Cambodia both reported the first cases of the new variant on the same day. The Philippine Department of Health said today that it has detected the country’s first two imported cases of the Omicron virus strain following the 48 samples sequenced yesterday. Those two patients are now in quarantine. At the same time, Cambodia reported its first Omicron case when a 23 year old Cambodian national returned to the kingdom from Ghana, via Dubai and Bangkok. According to a statement released by the government, the […]

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[Rookiescot]

We cant stop this variant. You can slow it down slightly but thats it.

However we may not WANT to stop it. If the information coming out of South Africa is correct it is displacing the Delta variant but has less severe symptoms, especially among those intelligent enough to have gotten themselves vaccinated. 

[Chatogaster]

28 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

We cant stop this variant. You can slow it down slightly but thats it.

However we may not WANT to stop it. If the information coming out of South Africa is correct it is displacing the Delta variant but has less severe symptoms, especially among those intelligent enough to have gotten themselves vaccinated. 

 

• Even if mortality is (e.g.) 3 times as low, a tripling of the number of cases would not resolve matters for the health care system. What is the ratio?
• To what extent does natural immunity resulting from an Omicron infection prevent breakthrough infections by currently dominant strains?
• If someone is infected by 2 strains simultaneously (it's bound to happen), what will their offspring be like? 
• Based on transmissibility, the next natural mutations must be queueing up to get their chance. What will be their characteristics?

(Sorry for the simplifications & anthropomorphologies)

I don't know answers to any of those questions so I can understand the choice of many governments to try to delay matters while hoping to resolve the unknowns in the meantime. That's probably over-optimistic: I guess it takes a more than a couple of decades before we'll have a better understanding. Right now, actions are mostly based on guesses and intuition. Simply welcoming Omicron with open arms could be the thing to do right now, but to me it feels like rien ne va plus.

 

[Rookiescot]

14 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

• Even if mortality is (e.g.) 3 times as low, a tripling of the number of cases would not resolve matters for the health care system. What is the ratio?
• To what extent does natural immunity resulting from an Omicron infection prevent breakthrough infections by currently dominant strains?
• If someone is infected by 2 strains simultaneously (it's bound to happen), what will their offspring be like? 
• Based on transmissibility, the next natural mutations must be queueing up to get their chance. What will be their characteristics?

(Sorry for the simplifications & anthropomorphologies)

I don't know answers to any of those questions so I can understand the choice of many governments to try to delay matters while hoping to resolve the unknowns in the meantime. That's probably over-optimistic: I guess it takes a more than a couple of decades before we'll have a better understanding. Right now, actions are mostly based on guesses and intuition. Simply welcoming Omicron with open arms could be the thing to do right now, but to me it feels like rien ne va plus.

 

[Jason]

It's pretty obvious that Omicron is more contagious than Delta. The question is whether or not it is more deadly and whether or not the vaccines can control it's spread. Let's see before drawing any conclusions.

[Chatogaster]

9 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

?

edit: maybe "?" was too short. I'll read arguments but I'll not be redirected to a youtube cast without context.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Chatogaster
clarification

[Rookiescot]

42 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

• Even if mortality is (e.g.) 3 times as low, a tripling of the number of cases would not res

  42 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

  Even if mortality is (e.g.) 3 times as low, a tripling of the number of cases would not resolve matters for the health care system. What is the ratio?

  olve matters for the health care system. What is the ratio?
• To what extent does natural immunity resulting from an Omicron infection prevent breakthrough infections by currently dominant strains?
• If someone is infected by 2 strains simultaneously (it's bound to happen), what will their offspring be like? 
• Based on transmissibility, the next natural mutations must be queueing up to get their chance. What will be their characteristics?

(Sorry for the simplifications & anthropomorphologies)

I don't know answers to any of those questions so I can understand the choice of many governments to try to delay matters while hoping to resolve the unknowns in the meantime. That's probably over-optimistic: I guess it takes a more than a couple of decades before we'll have a better understanding. Right now, actions are mostly based on guesses and intuition. Simply welcoming Omicron with open arms could be the thing to do right now, but to me it feels like rien ne va plus.

Those are reasonable questions and I dont think anyone on the planet has the answers.

42 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

Even if mortality is (e.g.) 3 times as low, a tripling of the number of cases would not resolve matters for the health care system. What is the ratio?

I would suggest all we have to watch out for is health systems being swamped. Although the symptoms seem far less severe there will be so many people ill at the same time numbers could rocket. Especially among the unvaccinated. 

42 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

To what extent does natural immunity resulting from an Omicron infection prevent breakthrough infections by currently dominant strains?

I would guess given the rate at which omicron is displacing delta thats not going to be an issue.

42 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

If someone is infected by 2 strains simultaneously (it's bound to happen), what will their offspring be like?

If by offspring you mean another variant then you guess is as good as mine. I personally, am hoping for one that makes me hung like a porn star and with the rugged good looks of Lee Marvin then sadly I'm only half way there.

42 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

Based on transmissibility, the next natural mutations must be queueing up to get their chance. What will be their characteristics?

Viruses have a habit (not always) of becoming more transmittable and less deadly. We can only hope such a thing happens with covid.

If covid were to "mix" with something like ebola then I suggest we simply retire to the library with a good bottle of Scotch and a revolver. 

[Rookiescot]

14 minutes ago, Chatogaster said:

?

edit: maybe "?" was too short. I'll read arguments but I'll not be redirected to a youtube cast without context.

He does daily updates on the virus and where we stand currently. Check out his back catalogue of posts.

He is well worth listening to.

[Chatogaster]

I didn't appreciate your first reply containing just a youtube link at all (wasn't even tempted to click on what seemed to be a delegation), but I do appreciate your latest reply and your sense of humor.

[Chatogaster]

8 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

He does daily updates on the virus and where we stand currently. Check out his back catalogue of posts.

He is well worth listening to.

I've got many sources (none of which are youtubers, mostly they're medical reports), but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Ok, I'll look at at tomorrow.

[Convert54]

57 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

This guy needs an editor !

 

[Cabra]

[Rookiescot]

9 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

This guy needs an editor !

And you need credible sources.

Who has the bigger problem?

[Convert54]

I can see that it is not difficult to present on open social media as a sincere and informative agent but there is not much other than repetition of statistical info coupled with speculative outcomes in so much of it.

If anything the predominant inference is that there is an almost desperate  appeal for people to seek out  3rd or even 4th "booster" shots for vaccines that have been admitted to have short term desired efficacy while (probably) the majority of the global population is still awaiting the first shot of same !

Many countries are in the process of or close to "opening up" to international travel using the criteria of "fully vaccinated" meaning a minimum two shots of accepted vaccines . Late in the day of optimism comes the advent of Omicron to reignite the paranoia and thus the continuation of "emergency" decrees and draconian suggestions of or introduction of compulsory mandates and social controls.

Now Fauci comes out advocating "booster" shots , Bill Gates advocates emphasis on public funding of surveillance of pandemic risk and vaccine response readiness ( Categorically stated as a protection for "rich people from pandemics" ).

"Trillions of  dollars have been lost" ? Really? Where have these dollars gone to? Never mind the lives  and the livelihoods of the mere minions .

Every cloud  has a silver lining if you are in control of the distribution of clouds !

 

 

 

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

It’s at the boarder now, we all know what we will be getting for Christmas . 

[Chatogaster]

15 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

He does daily updates on the virus and where we stand currently. Check out his back catalogue of posts.

He is well worth listening to.

 

I don't enjoy having to sit through a 17 minute video to learn what could have been read in 2-3 minutes (when will YouTube provide automated transcripts?). Also, I was a bit disappointed that only the first 2 of my question were addressed (and only very superficial at that), but I agree with you that John Campbell has many valid points.

At 16:05 John's prognosis is that by the end of December there'll be 1,000,000 cases in the UK per day, which boils down to a flash-infection of the whole of the UK. 12 months ago when vaccination and hence immunity/resistance was still low, the UK managed to cope with 50,000-60,000 (pre-Omicron) cases/day, albeit with only a small margin of safety. My takeaway from that is that (as far as the UK is concerned) Omicron had better be at least 17 times as mild (in terms of symptoms & duration) to stay in the manageable zone.

If it turns out to be so, it'll bring much international relief & optimism. Any less and the UK will have a tough January/February ahead while the world is scrambling to look for ways to delay matters.

Interesting times are ahead...

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Chatogaster
spelling

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, Chatogaster said:

I don't enjoy having to sit through a 17 minute video to learn what could have been read in 2-3 minutes (when will YouTube provide automated transcripts?). Also, I was a bit disappointed that only the first 2 of my question were addressed (and only very superficial at that), but I agree with you that John Campbell has many valid points.

At 16:05 John's prognosis is that by the end of December there'll be 1,000,000 cases in the UK per day, which boils down to a flash-infection of the whole of the UK. 12 months ago when vaccination and hence immunity/resistance was still low, the UK managed to cope with 50,000-60,000 (pre-Omicron) cases/day, albeit with only a small margin of safety. My takeaway from that is that (as far as the UK is concerned) Omicron had better be at least 17 times as mild (in terms of symptoms & duration) to stay in the manageable zone.

If it turns out to be so, it'll bring much international relief & optimism. Any less and the UK will have a tough January/February ahead while the world is scrambling to look for ways to delay matters.

Interesting times are ahead...

I think the jury is still out regarding how mild omicron actually is. It may be far milder but it could also be that people are not showing severe symptoms because they are vaccinated or have already had covid.

Dr Cambell has to get his message across to a wide audience. Some like yourself can take the entire message in one swift go. Others, particularly the elderly, need a slower pace.