Towards 2050

[JohninDublin]

 

Earlier this year, David Cornwell (aka the writer: John Le Carre)  died. Most of his literary output was Spy Fiction, such as, “The Spy who came in from the Cold”. He’s a man I highly respected because before he became a writer, he was a member of the security services. His writings may have been fiction, but his experience of a prior career dealing with spies, gave his stories authenticity.

About a year before he died he gave an interview to the BBC, in which he made predictions about what he thought would happen around 2050. The date struck me as particularly significant, because a few years earlier I read predictions that ecologically and environmentally, if we all continued consuming at our current rate it would be the tipping point for humanity. The prediction in that case, is the world population would reach 11 Billion and this was all the planet could sustain. Beyond that, the increasing demands of an ever-growing population would lead to deficits of food, water and raw materials.

Cornwell’s prediction was at around 2050, there would be major wars around the planet, not about territorial imperatives, but based on acquiring resources. One prediction he made, was the US would invade Canada to steal their water resources.

Likely? Take a look at the US today, and you will see though there is plenty of water, and far too many Hurricanes on the Eastern Seaboard, in the west, drought is never far away. There are towns in Northern California that are suffering rapid depopulation because water needed for local agriculture is being diverted away to large cities and SoCal agriculture. If you are an Avocado farmer and your trees each need 75 litres daily to produce it’s crop, are you going to lose much sleep if your government decides to steal your neighbours water to keep you in business?

But there is a case to be made, the reason why such a war may happen, is due to man’s mismanagement of the environment to begin with. When water was being diverted from other areas, did anybody stop to think of the consequences for the areas where this water was being extracted from?

Would America behave so badly? I think there is a precedent for this in Gulf War I. Many hold the opinion if Kuwait grew bananas instead of drilling for oil, the US would never have come to their aid.

But before anyone accuses me of “Yank bashing”, I’d like to mention more about Cornwell’s prediction, the main thrust of which is much of the world will fall under one of three orbits, the US, China or Russia. How he saw it playing out was that smaller nations would be subject to attacks from the hungry next-door neighbours, and these three power blocks would offer to protect you in return for access to your resources. So for example, China might engineer friction with the Philippines as an excuse to invade them and get raw materials via this route, but then the US may offer to protect them against China, but only in return for raw materials.

The predictions are China, America and Russia will be the major players, but it follows for me at least, there will be secondary players. The UK has suffered food deficiency since the end of the 19^th century and has to import food to survive. That nearly cost the UK two world wars in the 20^th century. An indication of how reliant the UK is on imports of all types, was the chaos seen at Dover last December/January when it looked like the UK was going to leave the EU without a deal.

So there are two islands to the west of Europe. One has a population of 7 million and produces enough food to feed 45 million people world-wide. The other has a population of 68 million but only produces enough food to feed about 45 million. Food shortages are becoming global, so the chances of importing food to deal with this shortfall are extremely limited. So imagine a scenario where both Russia and the UK cast beady eyes on the food surpluses of Ireland?

Ireland has no alliances with others, and used its opt-out under the Lisbon Treaty not to become part of the proposed European Defence Force. It seems unlikely a white knight might rescue Ireland from the rapacious intentions of either, let alone both of these countries.

But my greatest concern is not so much that “Peace on earth” will become just a pleasant memory in the next 30 years, so much as how we got to that point in the first place. I mentioned the mismanagement of water resources in the western US. Why has nobody ever thought about pumping water from the east? This is a country that thinks nothing of building a pipeline in defiance of environmental objections, and across tribal lands where it is not wanted, all the way from Canada to Texas. Factor in climate change and how when it rains so often today, it rains in the wrong place. Mishandling the solutions is leading to increasing desertification of the Western US.

Elsewhere, particularly the “Horn of Africa”, climate change is also leading to increasing aridness. Less arable land and a growing population is the equivalent of continuously stretching a rubber band. Sooner or later, that band will snap.

And along with climate change, so often comes pollution, though the two are not always linked. But how often do we hear people whose jobs are threatened because their employer is a large scale polluter, say something like, “China is worse. Why we should lose our jobs while the Chinese carry on as normal”?

I can have a lot of sympathy with that argument, but I recently watched a TV doc about pollution linked to Dupont and PTFE, better known as “Teflon”. There have been a number of birth defects which are allegedly the result of Dupont contaminating local water sources. In the doc I watched, I was saddened to see the town was slowly splitting into two. Those who had kids with birth defects and were not employed by Dupont, wanted to see the factory closed. On the other side were those who knew if Dupont left, the town would become another rust-belt casualty. The reality, in my opinion, is if you think China’s conduct excuses yours, then you are part of the problem, and not part of the solution.

Just an aside on Teflon: It is now estimated nearly everyone on the planet has  Teflon in their body. It was discovered in 1938 and is a known carcinogen. Anyone eatng food cooked in a non-stick pot or pan, will have absorbed it.

Those of us who can, will probably do our bit for the environment by switching to electric cars, but there is a very big elephant that room which nobody seems to want to talk about. At the moment, the chosen technology for this is Lithium batteries. There is an estimated 21 million tons of this available. The batteries in a Tesla weight 1200 pounds. I know that is not all lithium and I know we will not all be driving Tesla’s, but in the period 2012-19, the world produced an average of 93 million cars a year. I chose seven years because that is about the life expectancy of a lithium battery. If you bought a battery powered car seven years ago with a range of about 200 miles, battery decay is such that not only will it take increasingly longer to recharge, but its range is likely to have shrunk to 80-100 miles. And with the potential to produce 650 million cars in that time, will there be enough lithium to supply all the needs of the car battery trade? Or maybe there will be even greater pressure on resources, because it’s not just cars that use these batteries, but phones, laptops etc.

Yet another area where mankind often makes a rod for its own back: food. I am not a fan of Veganism. I view the more extreme Vegans in the same way that I view the extreme pro and anti-vaxxers. However, Vegans will tell you, to produce one Kilogramme of Beef, requires 3.5 Kgs of cereal crops. That may not mean a lot until you consider that 1kg of beef produces 2500 calories, while 1 kg of wheat produces 3650 calories. Thus in order to eat 2500 calories, we are using nearly 13000 calories to produce it. Imagine pumping these as dollars into a business and losing over $10000 every time you invested $13000?

Of course the problem with meat is in the past, it was considered almost a luxury, particularly in the poorer Asian countries. As they have got richer, they are consuming more meat. Again we have the problem of how can we ask say China, to reduce its meat consumption for the sake of the environment, when just like with fossil fuel consumption, the west has caused so much of the damage long before China got to where it is today? And that’s before you consider how difficult it is to persuade the developed countries to reduce their consumption of meat and fossil fuels.

Then there are the oceans. Evidence of abuse and over-fishing is fairly easy to find. We are becoming increasingly aware of the impact plastics have had on marine life. Just like with Teflon, another product found in the human body that shouldn’t be there is plastic. Some researchers have estimated the average human body contains enough plastic to produce a credit card – five grams. How did that happen? We threw our plastic in the oceans. The fish ate the plastic. We ate the fish.

As for over-fishing, the evidence comes in year after year. There are parts of NE US, and SE Canada and whole towns where fishing was the main industry saw ever diminishing returns from their trawler fleets. Swordfish now are typically now 2/3^rd  of the weight they were in the 1960’s because they are being caught younger. The younger they are caught, the less chance they have of reproducing. Need I say more?

In the European Union, quotas are set for each species in the interests of sustainability. The EU goes through a consultation process with scientists who are asked, “What is the maximum amount of fish we can take for each species and remain sustainable”? So Bluefin Tuna might be given a quota of 29000 tons by the scientists. Invariably those who make the final decision at the EU, then allocate a much higher figure of say 36000 tons because of lobbying by MEP’s with trawlermen in their constituencies. How sustainable is that in the long term?

As we move towards 2050, I can see much in Cornwell’s prediction that makes sense to me, and if it does happen, it will be because it was man-made and because we didn’t take the tough decisions when they were a lot easier to take.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_le_Carr%C3%A9

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation

https://capitalandmain.com/californias-water-crisis-is-real-what-are-the-solutions

https://californiaavocado.com/how-to/how-to-grow-your-own-avocado-tree/

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/natural-disasters/desertification-in-africa-10-things-you-must-know-54430

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/cancer/how-dupont-may-avoid-paying-clean-toxic-forever-chemical-n1138766

https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-causes/teflon-and-perfluorooctanoic-acid-pfoa.html

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/will-lithium-run-out/

https://askinglot.com/how-many-calories-are-contained-in-1-kg-of-grain

https://www.beefresearch.ca/research-topic.cfm/nutritional-qualities-of-beef-47

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/11/health/microplastics-ingestion-wwf-study-scn-intl/index.html

 https://euobserver.com/environment/150420life.org/threats/overfishing

 

[KaptainRob]

Excellent article John and I believe Cornwall's predictions and your interpretations may be further advanced.

Thank you for your submission and I trust it will stimulate others to contribute. 

[Faraday]

Great article John, very interesting.

Thank you.

 

[Andrew Reeve]

After reading JohninDublin eye opening article, I decided to have a look on Amazon for further reading and ended up ordering this Book and have a read of the review below.

https://www.amazon.com/Earth-Wars-Battle-Global-Resources/dp/1118152883

A fascinating insight into the global battle for our energy future

The global competition for scarce natural resources that pits the West against the super-hot economies of China and India, plus a clutch of other contenders including Russia, Brazil, and Indonesia, has become one of the biggest issues facing the world today. Whether it is the rare metal lithium found in salt pans in the Andes, gas from the Caspian Sea, oil off the coast of Brazil, coal from Africa's Zambezi River, or uranium from Kazakhstan, China and India are desperate to ensure the security of their future energy supplies. The same goes for food and water, as contamination and over-use take their toll, the need to provide continued access for the next generation and beyond has increased exponentially. In Earth Wars: The Battle for Global Resources, international business journalist Geoff Hiscock explores the problems, potential solutions, and inevitable tensions in this ongoing scramble for finite natural resources.

Going beyond "big power" politics to explore resource ownership and the use of innovative technology to get the most out of them, the book takes a forward-looking approach to this pressing issue. Written in clear, jargon-free language, it tells the global resources story in a fresh and engaging way that anyone can understand.

• Includes insightful, up-to-the-minute coverage of the most pressing debates over resource allocations
• Discusses the major Chinese and Indian businesses that are just becoming known to those in the West (Sinopec, CNOOC, CNPC, Indian Oil, ONGC, Reliance, Coal India, SAIL, and many others)
• Presents resource- and region-specific chapters to help readers view the pertinent issues from multiple angles

As the economies of China and India grow to challenge those of the West, the battle over natural resources will continue to heat up. Earth Wars looks at this very real problem in-depth, presenting a definitive look at one of the greatest challenges of our time.

 

[BigHewer]

6 hours ago, JohninDublin said:

One prediction he made, was the US would invade Canada to steal their water resources.

Chilling prediction, but if you read the whole article, it makes sense. At the very least, a corporate invasion or effective buyout.

[Andrew Reeve]

What is the expected population of the USA in 2050?

[BigHewer]

1 minute ago, Andrew Reeve said:

What is the expected population of the USA in 2050?

400 million I believe vs 50 million for Canada.

[JohninDublin]

2 hours ago, Andrew Reeve said:

What is the expected population of the USA in 2050?

I found this https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/

It predicts 438 million.

[JohninDublin]

3 hours ago, Andrew Reeve said:

After reading JohninDublin eye opening article, I decided to have a look on Amazon for further reading and ended up ordering this Book and have a read of the review below.

https://www.amazon.com/Earth-Wars-Battle-Global-Resources/dp/1118152883

A fascinating insight into the global battle for our energy future

The global competition for scarce natural resources that pits the West against the super-hot economies of China and India, plus a clutch of other contenders including Russia, Brazil, and Indonesia, has become one of the biggest issues facing the world today. Whether it is the rare metal lithium found in salt pans in the Andes, gas from the Caspian Sea, oil off the coast of Brazil, coal from Africa's Zambezi River, or uranium from Kazakhstan, China and India are desperate to ensure the security of their future energy supplies. The same goes for food and water, as contamination and over-use take their toll, the need to provide continued access for the next generation and beyond has increased exponentially. In Earth Wars: The Battle for Global Resources, international business journalist Geoff Hiscock explores the problems, potential solutions, and inevitable tensions in this ongoing scramble for finite natural resources.

Going beyond "big power" politics to explore resource ownership and the use of innovative technology to get the most out of them, the book takes a forward-looking approach to this pressing issue. Written in clear, jargon-free language, it tells the global resources story in a fresh and engaging way that anyone can understand.

• Includes insightful, up-to-the-minute coverage of the most pressing debates over resource allocations
• Discusses the major Chinese and Indian businesses that are just becoming known to those in the West (Sinopec, CNOOC, CNPC, Indian Oil, ONGC, Reliance, Coal India, SAIL, and many others)
• Presents resource- and region-specific chapters to help readers view the pertinent issues from multiple angles

As the economies of China and India grow to challenge those of the West, the battle over natural resources will continue to heat up. Earth Wars looks at this very real problem in-depth, presenting a definitive look at one of the greatest challenges of our time.

Hiscock may not be making the same predictions as Cornwell, but I would not be surprised if the conclusions are that we are stretching the rubber band to it's limit, and sooner or later it must snap.

[BigHewer]

7 hours ago, JohninDublin said:

I found this https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/

It predicts 438 million.

I wouldn’t be surprised. I remember reading somewhere that the top 4 in 2050 will be India, China, Nigeria and USA.

[JamesE]

I've always found it interesting that all these predictions talk about time in decades: "by 2030", "before 2050", "by the end of the century". In reality global processes tick off in the time scale of millennia. There was a tipping point - the end of the 17th century - when, through our technological skill, combined with hubris and ignorance, humanity broke the solar budget and began to consume, via coal and later other hydrocarbons, more energy than was received by the sun every year. That's when all of the problems we're seeing now from global warming to Facebook really started. The usually unmentioned elephant in the room is that the changes that have occurred over the past +/-350 years are systemic and will take millennia to sort themselves out. In the meantime those people who are lucky enough to live through that will get all the benefits of rising seas levels, desertification, acidified oceans, etc. regardless of what we do to stop it.

[JamesE]

11 minutes ago, BigHewer said:

I wouldn’t be surprised. I remember reading somewhere that the top 4 in 2050 will be India, China, Nigeria and USA.

Don't leave out Indonesia - currently #4 - with 278M.

[BigHewer]

28 minutes ago, JamesE said:

Don't leave out Indonesia - currently #4 - with 278M.

I was going to mention Indonesia. Currently 4th but projected to slip down the rankings to #6 (with Pakistan @5) which surprises me because they’re still ticking along. 

[KaptainRob]

3 minutes ago, JamesE said:

The usually unmentioned elephant in the room is that the changes that have occurred over the past +/-350 years are systemic and will take millennia to sort themselves out. In the meantime those people who are lucky enough to live through that will get all the benefits of rising seas levels, desertification, acidified oceans, etc. regardless of what we do to stop it.

If anyone is left!  ... Mayans, Inca's, Khmers all disappeared or moved away from highly developed cities with engineered irrigation systems and well developed food supply chains.  The demise of those civilisations is not all down to disease introduced by arriving conquerors. 

Having spent 75% of my life living beside or on the ocean I hung up my captains hat when moving to Chiang Mai, been there done that, I tell people.  The 1st thing I did in selecting a building site was to survey  for potential flood risk and future water supply.  The flood study was easy and we built our 1st house accordingly.  Future water supply proved inconclusive although it will likely last me out. 

Our city, nestled in a broad valley, relies on rainfall to stock inadequate sized dams and the major secondary source for the suburbs is from underground, artesian water.  A 1980's German survey team concluded that the 1,000's of wells already in use were unsustainable, yet 40 years on and with a massively expanded population, we haven't run dry .... yet. 

Predictions are not always accurate, and how could a survey team (of the 80's) accurately gauge the extent of aquifer supplies below our valley ... it all comes from the surrounding mountains and can years to seep through from 100's of kilometres distant.  They weren't altogether wrong, as new wells, most on private land (even within residential estates) are now having to be drilled deeper, up ~60m, to find good pressure and clean water whereas 20 to 30m was common just 20 years ago.

I can envisage roof water storage tanks becoming mandatory, probably just in the nick of time, though not before millions are wasted digging larger dams and expanding city water reticulation, @ current costs of ~ 15,000 bt per lineal metre, not including final house connection fees.

Potable water is a precious commodity.

[Fester]

52 minutes ago, JamesE said:

I've always found it interesting that all these predictions talk about time in decades: "by 2030", "before 2050", "by the end of the century". In reality global processes tick off in the time scale of millennia. There was a tipping point - the end of the 17th century - when, through our technological skill, combined with hubris and ignorance, humanity broke the solar budget and began to consume, via coal and later other hydrocarbons, more energy than was received by the sun every year. That's when all of the problems we're seeing now from global warming to Facebook really started. The usually unmentioned elephant in the room is that the changes that have occurred over the past +/-350 years are systemic and will take millennia to sort themselves out. In the meantime those people who are lucky enough to live through that will get all the benefits of rising seas levels, desertification, acidified oceans, etc. regardless of what we do to stop it.

Do you have a reference to this "end of the 17th century" idea?

[JohninDublin]

7 hours ago, BigHewer said:

I wouldn’t be surprised. I remember reading somewhere that the top 4 in 2050 will be India, China, Nigeria and USA.

I am surprised to see Nigeria on that list, On the other hand, I am not sure it can be a contributing factor, but they do have the youngest Age of Consent on the planet at 11 years old, and there is a large Muslim population.

I had considered mentioning population growth in developing nations as part of the contributing factor, but I was worried that it might stray into TLDR territory. As I am sure most of you know, large families in these countries is seen as a "pension plan" for when the parents are no longer able to work. 

[BigHewer]

4 hours ago, JohninDublin said:

I had considered mentioning population growth in developing nations as part of the contributing factor, but I was worried that it might stray into TLDR territory.

I think this will become a big topic in global discussions when India overtakes China in the next four or five years. Now it’s mostly human interest and trivia but that will make people sit up and take notice. 

[JamesE]

3 hours ago, BigHewer said:

I think this will become a big topic in global discussions when India overtakes China in the next four or five years. Now it’s mostly human interest and trivia but that will make people sit up and take notice. 

There was a time in the 1960s/early-70s when population growth and control was a legitimate topic for discussion. The downside was that the eugenics movement of the earlier 20th Century and Hitler's attempts at weaponizing same provided a clear, recent counterpoint and fixed post that had to be considered in any attempt to ethically implement any of these ideas. Fast-forward five years and the Capitalists (proper name of a belief system) realized that unfettered growth was really the only way their system could work so population issues were removed from the table as a topic for public discussion. Witness now the global effort to grow population in Japan, S. Korea, and China and the wailings and lamentations of the less-than-replacement birth rate in the West.

[KaptainRob]

On 12/15/2021 at 2:56 PM, JohninDublin said:

Cornwell’s prediction was at around 2050, there would be major wars around the planet, not about territorial imperatives, but based on acquiring resources. One prediction he made, was the US would invade Canada to steal their water resources.

Likely? Take a look at the US today, and you will see though there is plenty of water, and far too many Hurricanes on the Eastern Seaboard, in the west, drought is never far away. There are towns in Northern California that are suffering rapid depopulation because water needed for local agriculture is being diverted away to large cities and SoCal agriculture. If you are an Avocado farmer and your trees each need 75 litres daily to produce it’s crop, are you going to lose much sleep if your government decides to steal your neighbours water to keep you in business?

But there is a case to be made, the reason why such a war may happen, is due to man’s mismanagement of the environment to begin with. When water was being diverted from other areas, did anybody stop to think of the consequences for the areas where this water was being extracted from?

Following on from JohninDublin's excellent article and my previous post on the subject, I recall a drought period in south-east Queensland (as well as much of Australia) some 20+ years ago, which prompted drastic measures, some of which failed miserably.

The Queensland Government backed a Desalination Plant to be built at Tugun on the Gold Coast, not far from the NSW/QLD border and geographically ideal for a pick-up in clean ocean waters and with ample land for the actual plant, away from dense residential areas. 

The Desal plant was not cost effective and constantly broke down, it was considered a lemon - possible poor design and engineering aside, components often failed through corrosion and the plant was shut down for many years.  Later re-commissioned it still operates although at a very high cost to taxpayers.

The Gold Coast's own major dam had it's capacity increased by raising the dam and spillway, and 100's of kilometres of pipelines were inter-connected, over 100's of kilometres, to form a Brisbane/Gold Coast water network.  All good, except Government set about acquiring local shire (provincial) water rights to manager the entire network under 'one roof'.  The new entity took over modern new office facilities, acquired fleets of vehicles and hired staff .... and water rates escalated to pay for it all!  It became such as hot issue politicians had to back down and reverse the process.  I don't think water rates ever returned to previous levels though.

Perhaps AussieBob or another member knows more of the current status.

I'd be interested in hearing what may have exacerbated California's problems, apart from inefficient agriculture.  Was it hydro dams or diversion of the Colorado River?   That's a problem with the Mekong and China's many dams!

[JohninDublin]

5 hours ago, KaptainRob said:

I'd be interested in hearing what may have exacerbated California's problems, apart from inefficient agriculture.  Was it hydro dams or diversion of the Colorado River?   That's a problem with the Mekong and China's many dams!

The Colorado River was part of it. 

https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/news/beyond-perfect-drought-californias-real-water-crisis/

[Rookiescot]

On 12/17/2021 at 3:15 PM, JohninDublin said:

The Colorado River was part of it. 

https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/news/beyond-perfect-drought-californias-real-water-crisis/

Sticks in my memory a lot of California's water supply for farms and the like came from aquifers which were being depleted. The government started putting restrictions on how much could be removed.  

[KaptainRob]

15 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Sticks in my memory a lot of California's water supply for farms and the like came from aquifers which were being depleted. The government started putting restrictions on how much could be removed.  

That is likely to happen in parts of Thailand also, possibly too late! 

The concept of roof water collection, like solar energy, is slow to catch on here.  Both electricity and water will become scarcer and a lot more expensive in the near future.

OKRA Solar is an excellent company with a solution for many rural folk in Asia.  They've been supplying systems in Cambodia with great success > https://okrasolar.com/vision/

What's needed is a similar water collection & conservation model which could be marketed and/or subsidised for those in need.

[KaptainRob]

Chinese dams and the Mekong river system's problems >

 

[Saltire]

Another excellent, thought provoking  read, thank you John.

 

[LoongFred]

Population decrease is actually possible in many places. California is actually loosing population and only stays stable because of immigration. China and Japan face problem of aging work forces and providing services to elderly. This is actually true in Thailand also. Predictions made a few years ago didn’t take into account reduced fertility in many places of the world.