News Forum - Recovery of Thailand’s international tourism sector likely to take years

[Thaiger]

International tourism demand for Thailand is still low, according to a Bangkok Post report, with a full recovery predicted to take years. Just 133,061 foreign arrivals touched down in Thailand between November 1 and 30, well below the 3 million visitors a month of pre-pandemic times. However, despite low visitor numbers to his province, Pongsakorn Ketprapakorn from the Tourism Council of Phang Nga remains optimistic for the coming months. According to Pongsakorn, forward bookings for January and February have already reached 30%, while this month’s average hotel occupancy rate of 20% is up from 10% last month. Pongsakorn acknowledges demand […]

The story Recovery of Thailand’s international tourism sector likely to take years as seen on Thaiger News.

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[AlexPTY]

i hope TAT people are not reading this, cause it will be a bunch of heart attacks

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

11 minutes ago, AlexPTY said:

i hope TAT people are not reading this, cause it will be a bunch of heart attacks

Please don’t say that, as TAT will come out with another statistical statement ….. of how many will occur next year .

[Shade_Wilder]

I am not an expert, but I think this timeline sounds about right for the proverbial "Two-Week Millionaires".

However, Thailand has a large number of 'SnowBirds', people who come to the Kingdom for 3-6 months every year to escape winter in the respective countries. If Thailand can get those people to come back, I believe they can provide enough business to the locals to see them through this year and into next. No, it wouldn't be easy for the locals, but if they manage to keep their heads above water and pay down at least some of their debt, they might make it through; the ability of Thais to scrape by/eke out in dire financial situations never ceases to amaze me!

I have many friends among the 'SnowBirds', and it is a uniform message that I hear;

"if I can come for the winter, I will"

[LoongFred]

4 minutes ago, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

Please don’t say that, as TAT will come out with another statistical statement ….. of how many will occur next year .

I think it's crazy to travel long distances while covid uncertainties still exist. There's no assurance you'll even get admitted once you arrive. I would guess that tourism is down worldwide.  That's one reason why Chinese and Asian tourism closer to Thailand is critical. I wouldn't think of traveling overseas in the next  year or two. World economies need to get better before travelers will part with their money

Their is a bright side for residents in Thailand in that hotels should continue to offer good deals and tourist areas won't be over-run.

 

[AussieBob]

I predict that it will take a very very long time for Thai tourism to 'recover' - which means back to 40 million a year. The only thing that will make or break that happening is the Chinese - if/when they return in even bigger numbers than in 2019, then Thailand's tourist numbers will recover.  There has been a decline in Thailand arrivals from all other parts of the World since 2015 - except neighboring countries. This was contributed to by many factors, including the Junta, Baht Rising, Corruption and Crime (social media exposure), and alternative options (especially Vietnam). 

[Bifrost]

6 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

I predict that it will take a very very long time for Thai tourism to 'recover' - which means back to 40 million a year. The only thing that will make or break that happening is the Chinese - if/when they return in even bigger numbers than in 2019, then Thailand's tourist numbers will recover.  There has been a decline in Thailand arrivals from all other parts of the World since 2015 - except neighboring countries. This was contributed to by many factors, including the Junta, Baht Rising, Corruption and Crime (social media exposure), and alternative options (especially Vietnam). 

Hello mate. I read what you say about Vietnam -   I been there years ago but it was not attracting very much -  they are even bigger scammers   - and I felt completely ignored   there,   and not many smiles..   

but it might have changed ?  any experiences ? I stil feel better in Thailand but is has been overpriced for a while 

[Freeduhdumb]

All those private jets went elsewhere? Reality is finally sinking in for Thailand. 

[Jayce]

If only they'd scrap the "we'll put you in a hospital after you test positive even though you're asymptomatic " rule, I'd be on a plane tomorrow!

At worst just let people stay in the room/villa they paid for instead of losing that money and having to pay for the hospital stay that the insurance won't cover (when asymptomatic)... Especially in the villa scenario where they'd have very adequate separation from Thai society while still being able to somewhat enjoy a 'sortoff' holiday. I mean, weren't the Thai doing it in an organised fashion that way before they opened up to the 40+ countries anyway, so why wouldn't that be possible today?? 

But rather though: plenty of Covid positive Thai out and about who aren't being locked up, so why does it need to be any different for toursists when they're vaccinated, asymptomatic and significantly less likely to be shedding the virus? You might want to keep them out of certain establishments, but no reason to throw them in a hospital for crying out loud. That's probably one of the main things keeping tourists from even considering coming to Thailand right now.

Oh and does anyone know if this whole "you sat close to a positive case on the plane so now we're putting you in hospital even if you test negative on arrival" nonsense still applies?? They were reconsidering that prior to Omicron, not sure if they actually changed any of that...

 

 

[AussieBob]

9 minutes ago, Bifrost said:

Hello mate. I read what you say about Vietnam -   I been there years ago but it was not attracting very much -  they are even bigger scammers   - and I felt completely ignored   there,   and not many smiles..   

but it might have changed ?  any experiences ? I stil feel better in Thailand but is has been overpriced for a while 

I base that assumption on feedback and the numbers of tourists going to Vietnam from Australia and other western countries.  Vietnam tourists in 2015 was 8 million, and in 2019 it was 18 million.  Thailand's also increased, but no where near as much, and mainly because of the 9-10 million Chinese that went to China. 

In that same period the number of Aussies going to Vietnam almost doubled, while the number going to Thailand was about the same. In 2019 Trip Adviser advised that the number of inquires about Vietnam was 4 times the number about Thailand - in Australia.  I play golf and some mates have visited Vietnam for a golfing holiday - they loved it - much cheaper and much better than Thailand - except for the food.   In 2018 Greg Norman did a TV interview - he had already built quite a few courses in Vietnam, and he was talking about over 100 on his books over the next 10 years.   Yes - for living there Thailand has a much better feel than most places in the World.   But for a place to visit as a 2-3 week tourist once a year that does not really apply - and Vietnam was absolutely booming before Covid. 

[AussieBob]

21 minutes ago, Jayce said:

If only they'd scrap the "we'll put you in a hospital after you test positive even though you're asymptomatic " rule, I'd be on a plane tomorrow!

At worst just let people stay in the room/villa they paid for instead of losing that money and having to pay for the hospital stay that the insurance won't cover (when asymptomatic)... Especially in the villa scenario where they'd have very adequate separation from Thai society while still being able to somewhat enjoy a 'sortoff' holiday. I mean, weren't the Thai doing it in an organised fashion that way before they opened up to the 40+ countries anyway, so why wouldn't that be possible today?? 

But rather though: plenty of Covid positive Thai out and about who aren't being locked up, so why does it need to be any different for toursists when they're vaccinated, asymptomatic and significantly less likely to be shedding the virus? You might want to keep them out of certain establishments, but no reason to throw them in a hospital for crying out loud. That's probably one of the main things keeping tourists from even considering coming to Thailand right now.

Oh and does anyone know if this whole "you sat close to a positive case on the plane so now we're putting you in hospital even if you test negative on arrival" nonsense still applies?? They were reconsidering that prior to Omicron, not sure if they actually changed any of that...

Well said mate - spot on.  All that is why we aint visiting yet - plus the fact that any Provincial Governor can invoke a new rule at any time and ruin your holiday plans.  

My understanding is that if you sat next to someone who tested positive, you are taken to a 'special' hotel type place and tested and quarantined - how long they dont say (or allow to be said on media it seems), but as one bloke reported to Richard Barrow he thinks it was going to be for 7 days, including 2 PCR tests - if second test still negative then he can leave - if either tests positive then off to hospital for 10-14 days. It is also my understanding that those costs are not covered under the insurance - the only coverage is hospital treatment and accommodation - not for quarantine and tests in a hotel.

[TheDirtyDurian]

1 hour ago, Shade_Wilder said:

I am not an expert, but I think this timeline sounds about right for the proverbial "Two-Week Millionaires".

However, Thailand has a large number of 'SnowBirds', people who come to the Kingdom for 3-6 months every year to escape winter in the respective countries. If Thailand can get those people to come back, I believe they can provide enough business to the locals to see them through this year and into next. No, it wouldn't be easy for the locals, but if they manage to keep their heads above water and pay down at least some of their debt, they might make it through; the ability of Thais to scrape by/eke out in dire financial situations never ceases to amaze me!

I have many friends among the 'SnowBirds', and it is a uniform message that I hear;

"if I can come for the winter, I will"

Why can't they come now?

56 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

I predict that it will take a very very long time for Thai tourism to 'recover' - which means back to 40 million a year. The only thing that will make or break that happening is the Chinese - if/when they return in even bigger numbers than in 2019, then Thailand's tourist numbers will recover.  There has been a decline in Thailand arrivals from all other parts of the World since 2015 - except neighboring countries. This was contributed to by many factors, including the Junta, Baht Rising, Corruption and Crime (social media exposure), and alternative options (especially Vietnam). 

The junta had never been an issue for tourists. Doubt most of them could even name the pm.

36 minutes ago, Jayce said:

If only they'd scrap the "we'll put you in a hospital after you test positive even though you're asymptomatic " rule, I'd be on a plane tomorrow!

At worst just let people stay in the room/villa they paid for instead of losing that money and having to pay for the hospital stay that the insurance won't cover (when asymptomatic)... Especially in the villa scenario where they'd have very adequate separation from Thai society while still being able to somewhat enjoy a 'sortoff' holiday. I mean, weren't the Thai doing it in an organised fashion that way before they opened up to the 40+ countries anyway, so why wouldn't that be possible today?? 

But rather though: plenty of Covid positive Thai out and about who aren't being locked up, so why does it need to be any different for toursists when they're vaccinated, asymptomatic and significantly less likely to be shedding the virus? You might want to keep them out of certain establishments, but no reason to throw them in a hospital for crying out loud. That's probably one of the main things keeping tourists from even considering coming to Thailand right now.

Oh and does anyone know if this whole "you sat close to a positive case on the plane so now we're putting you in hospital even if you test negative on arrival" nonsense still applies?? They were reconsidering that prior to Omicron, not sure if they actually changed any of that...

Insurance does pay for your stay in hospital even if asymptomatic. It's a myth promoted by the haters that it doesn't. Any insurance bought through the TGIA will provide this pretty much. 

6 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Well said mate - spot on.  All that is why we aint visiting yet - plus the fact that any Provincial Governor can invoke a new rule at any time and ruin your holiday plans.  

My understanding is that if you sat next to someone who tested positive, you are taken to a 'special' hotel type place and tested and quarantined - how long they dont say (or allow to be said on media it seems), but as one bloke reported to Richard Barrow he thinks it was going to be for 7 days, including 2 PCR tests - if second test still negative then he can leave - if either tests positive then off to hospital for 10-14 days. It is also my understanding that those costs are not covered under the insurance - the only coverage is hospital treatment and accommodation - not for quarantine and tests in a hotel.

See above. 

[farang]

drop the hotel,thai pass and no good insurance,simple test at airport and go,then people will come back quickly.as of now it takes a computer whiz to  down load all this crap!!many are not going to suffer thru all that non sence.

[Marc26]

40 minutes ago, Jayce said:

If only they'd scrap the "we'll put you in a hospital after you test positive even though you're asymptomatic " rule, I'd be on a plane tomorrow!

At worst just let people stay in the room/villa they paid for instead of losing that money and having to pay for the hospital stay that the insurance won't cover (when asymptomatic)... Especially in the villa scenario where they'd have very adequate separation from Thai society while still being able to somewhat enjoy a 'sortoff' holiday. I mean, weren't the Thai doing it in an organised fashion that way before they opened up to the 40+ countries anyway, so why wouldn't that be possible today?? 

But rather though: plenty of Covid positive Thai out and about who aren't being locked up, so why does it need to be any different for toursists when they're vaccinated, asymptomatic and significantly less likely to be shedding the virus? You might want to keep them out of certain establishments, but no reason to throw them in a hospital for crying out loud. That's probably one of the main things keeping tourists from even considering coming to Thailand right now.

Oh and does anyone know if this whole "you sat close to a positive case on the plane so now we're putting you in hospital even if you test negative on arrival" nonsense still applies?? They were reconsidering that prior to Omicron, not sure if they actually changed any of that...

Why do you state an obvious non-fact that has been stated and proven with links many times on this forum 

 

It honestly blows me away people just refuse to do any research and post 100% false informed 

 

Insurance does cover it

I'm not bothering to link the info from all the insurance companies because I'm not wasting my time

 

They also don't automatically put you in a a hospital

They have set up hotels but it's up to the doctor and I don't know how often that occurs vs hospitalization  

[TheDirtyDurian]

2 minutes ago, farang said:

drop the hotel,thai pass and no good insurance,simple test at airport and go,then people will come back quickly.as of now it takes a computer whiz to  down load all this crap!!many are not going to suffer thru all that non sence.

Took me about 10 minutes total to make my TP application. Admittedly I can read English, but I'm still not the most computer literate.

[TheDirtyDurian]

Just now, TheDirtyDurian said:

Took me about 10 minutes total to make my TP application. Admittedly I can read English, but I'm still not the most computer literate.

PS. approved in just over 2 hours. 

[Marc26]

6 minutes ago, farang said:

drop the hotel,thai pass and no good insurance,simple test at airport and go,then people will come back quickly.as of now it takes a computer whiz to  down load all this crap!!many are not going to suffer thru all that non sence.

8 out 10 people posting on forums have said it is pretty easy 

 

But why does that matter if you want to have a nice moan

[Cabra]

This is not a THA phenomenon. Globally, international tourism is anemic, at best. And it has nothing to do with prostitution and booze hounds not being able to flourish. Because those things never die. And regardless of what all the armchair virologist say, and given the 5.3 million covid deaths since March 2020, there is a pandemic, and if the tourist that do brave the hurdles of travel don't want to behave and follow the rules, don't expect the red carpet. We are in the new normal NOW. People need to get over themselves. 20% of GDP tied to tourism is an antiquated model.

[HolyCowCm]

It's ok and odn't worry because the Elite and powers that be will be able to find extra money for themselves. How dare they talk about hurt and fall out regarding the common areas and thai folk with tourism from afar being non existent. Wasn't there a saying "Let them eat durian" sometime in history?

[LoongFred]

7 minutes ago, Marc26 said:

8 out 10 people posting on forums have said it is pretty easy 

But why does that matter if you want to have a nice moan

It might be easy, but covid has wakened world economies. International travel is on the skids and it won't recover for a couple of years. Smart economies that relied on tourism in the past need to look for ways not so dependent on the tourism industry. Going from 20% to somewhat less would be a good start. 

[Nightflame]

22 minutes ago, TheDirtyDurian said:

PS. approved in just over 2 hours. 

For me using UK Vaccine QR codes Thai Pass approved automatically.

Wifes identical details, insurance hotel etc but with Singapore Vaccine QR code, stuck in Reviewing.  Been two days now.

Edited December 7, 2021 by Nightflame
spelling

[TheDirtyDurian]

11 minutes ago, HolyCowCm said:

It's ok and odn't worry because the Elite and powers that be will be able to find extra money for themselves. How dare they talk about hurt and fall out regarding the common areas and thai folk with tourism from afar being non existent. Wasn't there a saying "Let them eat durian" sometime in history?

Doubt it. Durian would be too expensive!

[TheDirtyDurian]

8 minutes ago, Nightflame said:

For me using UK Vaccine QR codes Thai Pass approved automatically.

Wifes identical details, insurance hotel etc but with Singapore Vaccine QR code, stuck in Reviewing.  Been two days now.

It is an opaque process.......

[Jayce]

38 minutes ago, TheDirtyDurian said:

Insurance does pay for your stay in hospital even if asymptomatic. It's a myth promoted by the haters that it doesn't. Any insurance bought through the TGIA will provide this pretty much. 

I actually didn't know that wasn't the case. I was still basing myself off information that I had read here quite some time ago! Thanks for pointing that out. Still not great to be put in a hospital though even if insurance pays for it. I assume insurance won't cover someone from losing the money from the original accomodation booking. And even if you would be able to recoup that money, I don't have enough leave to be able to rebook any accomodation for after I get out of hospital. Don't relish the thought of spending my entire holiday in a hospital and then having to head back home.

39 minutes ago, Marc26 said:

Why do you state an obvious non-fact that has been stated and proven with links many times on this forum 

It honestly blows me away people just refuse to do any research and post 100% false informed 

Insurance does cover it

I'm not bothering to link the info from all the insurance companies because I'm not wasting my time

Marc, that may be an obvious non-fact to you, but this is the first I'm hearing about it as I don't dedicate my life this forum...

Don't get me wrong, very glad to read this was all BS, but I've not even come across a Thaiger news article that has pointed this out. Might have missed it, but it would be worth having a "myths and facts" news article done by theThaiger on this.

 

39 minutes ago, Marc26 said:

They also don't automatically put you in a a hospital

They have set up hotels but it's up to the doctor and I don't know how often that occurs vs hospitalization  

 

Regardless of being put in a hospital or hotel by Thai government, I'm not willing to run the risk of having paid for my villa, not getting my money back (which I assume the insurance won't cover) and then being stuck in a substandard accomodation that I can't get out of. I mean, if it's not even clear who decides whether you go to a hospital or a hotel and on what basis that decision gets made, then why should we have any confidence at all?

Same applies to the "sitting near an infected person on the plane ride over" scenario. Why can't this be more clearly articulated? Is it sitting next to or in close proximity? Or is just merely sitting on the same plane enough?? Is it 7 days or 14 quarantine? Is it after 1 or 2 PCR tests?? So many unknowns! How can people make plans off of that and decide whether it's worth the gamble or not.

I would argue only those who love to gamble or those who have enough time to be able to stay overseas and/or have enough money are happy to accept the uncertainty of it all.

 

While we're at it, can someone also please clarify what happens if you test positive on the 72 hour PCR test that one needs to take to leave Thailand (depending on the destination of course). If the destination mandates such a test and you test positive, what happens then? Does the Thai PCR testing center need to report this and you basically get stuck in a Thai hospital or hotel again??

 

[Shark]

Have been saying this already, as the pandemic isn't over yet. This might be by 2025 if we lucky.
Add a 7 years to it and we come to 2032 - This is my $0.02