News Forum - CCSA hints that some bars and nightclubs could reopen before January 16

[AdvocatusDiaboli]

12 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

May I suggest today's special for you? The intravenous "Manhattan"

I hope no hospital involved with that, as I would not be able to get one on the religious holidays ….. , I hope 7/11 staff can assist at point of sale, like heating up your toasty Sammie 

[Bob20]

Just now, AdvocatusDiaboli said:

I hope no hospital involved with that, as I would not be able to get one on the religious holidays ….. , I hope 7/11 staff can assist at point of sale, like heating up your toasty Sammie 

I wouldn't let the cashiers stick a needle in me, but then again I don't eat their microwaved food either

[JohninDublin]

3 hours ago, Michael0510 said:

The numbers of infections are higher than the reported numbers of infections in every country in the world. So it’s truism to say, that that figure is understated.

The question is, if the numbers of infections are significantly more understated in Thailand than in other countries. “Most people believe” doesn’t help. First: Most people don’t even think about that. And most people who are actually thinking about that, don’t understand anything about it. It’s about statistics and pandemics and there are not many people who understand both - or even one of it. 

It’s a fact, that all other numbers in Thailand (like deaths, hospitalization of sick people etc.) match to the number of infections. There is no hint, that the dark figure of infections in Thailand is significantly higher than in the UK or in the US. Btw: In the US and the UK health care became overwhelmed during pandemic. That wasn’t the case in Thailand. 

If you know Thailand, then you know, that it’s very unlikely, that there are many people dying secretly somewhere and no one is talking about it. On the contrary: There are not many countries in the world like Thailand, who send so many people in a hospital (including field hospitals), who don’t have any symptoms. The ‘green’ and most (maybe all) of the ‘yellow’ patients in Thailand wouldn’t be hospitalized i.e. in the US. 

In Phuket there are about 1,000 people under medical care or supervision. 233 of them are called ‘patients’. 2 of the 233 patients would be hospitalized in the countries like the US as well and many of the other 998 wouldn’t be under any care or supervision in other countries. That means that there aren't many possiblities to fake the number of deaths or hospitalization in Thailand to make them match to a faked number of infections. The dark figure of death by covid is supposed to be much higher i.e. in the US than in Thailand.

If anyone's been following my posts where I've mentioned the numbers in TH, you will see that most of those who've replied to me, do care about the possibility that the numbers are being falsified. I stated two or three weeks ago that I believed that the numbers in TH were in decline and immediately, most of the regular posters I interact with, challenged that, with many saying I should not believe the numbers put out by the TH gov. Eventually after making many lengthy posts explaining why I thought this was the case, and pointing out that my post was not about trusting the accuracy of the TH gov's figures, most of those with the possible exception of @Bob20accepted my explanation that it was possible (or even likely) that the numbers were in decline, and my post was not an acceptance of the accuracy of the TH govs figures.

But you are right to say, that my saying "most people" does not particularly help the debate as they could never provide any data about what the true figures were. But I do have to challenge your assertion, " It’s a fact, that all other numbers in Thailand (like deaths, hospitalization of sick people etc.) match to the number of infections." That was my initial belief. People kept telling me I was wrong, so I went looking for the evidence to prove my case.

What I actually found was that they were right and I was wrong. I saw the stats for excess morbidity and for a long time they were what I expected to see: They were in decline and a lot of the explanation for that would have been the decrease in motorcycle deaths due to the roads being less busier. Then come April and the arrival of the Delta variant, suddenly a lot of people were dying. This was reflected in the excess morbidity stats. However, when you looked at stats, excess morbidity from April 1st to Sep 30th, was showing 22k deaths above the announced numbers of CV deaths. In September alone there were 16k excess deaths, but the TH gov only reported just under 5k CV deaths. https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid