News Forum - Phuket daily Covid infections rise over 100 again. Today 109 new cases.

[AlexPTY]

Finally countries recognize the fact that vacation is not a cure. Travel to Europe set to get more difficult as EU proposes 9-month validity limit for COVID-19 vaccines. Thailand is still in the stage of euphoria 

[JohninDublin]

28 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Clearly human behaviour dictates infection rates. If for example, we all stayed isolated for a month then the virus would be gone. As for the 24X infection rates John, let’s not open that old debate again. But do you really think both the testing rates and reported infections in Asia are as accurate and transparent as they are in Europe.  I know you don’t given previous discussions and so the 24x is meaningless. 
 

The reason for the increase is obvious. If you open bars and nightlife it results in close contact with lots of people. That means the virus spreads. It’s really that simple. So you only open nightlife once your healthcare systems can handle the increases in infections leading to hospitalisations leading to deaths. This only occurs once you have fully vaccinated enough people and/or many more people have been infected. You then enter a phase such as the U.K., where infection rates are essentially meaningless and the focus shifts firmly to hospitalisations and deaths.  

I agree with your second para entirely.

Regarding the first I think there has been a slight misunderstanding here. I don't believe in the exactitude of the figures for Asia. I most certainly wouldn't believe the Chinese if they told me they were lying. But my position is that I  have always maintained that the figures in TH are declining. I've never said the 24X is accurate, and I'll come back to that. 

You imply a point that I totally agree with: That it is behaviour that is now the driving force. Most of Europe has been vaxxing as fast as they can, and then telling people go out and enjoy yourselves and infections are increasing. I'm sure you will concede that Europe's problems are to do with behaviour. If OTOH, Asia is also vaxxing as fast as they can, but still controlling behaviour, wouldn't you agree that rates are likely to be in decline in Asia? The problem I've been having is that several posters have said that if Asia or TH did the same amount of testing as the UK the figures would be similar.

Let's consider it for one second. That would mean that Asia is hiding 96% of all infections. They should be reporting 15 mill new infections a week if that is correct. Though I don't believe the accuracy of the Asian numbers, there are 48 territories in Asia reporting these figures, and some are liberal democracies while others might be less liberal but do have media which can be seen by the outside world. But when you think of the number of people that are involved in collating these figures in all these countries, if the numbers were being so dramatically falsified, don't you think that we might have read some examples in the Asian media, or heard from whistle-blowers by now? Could they really hide 96% of infections and nobody discover the truth? 

So we both know that I don't say that the figures are accurate, but how far out can they possibly be? 2400%? That is the figure that we should be seeing if those who say that "If they only tested the same as Europe or the UK does", are correct. Plenty will tell me the figures are wrong, but nobody can provide the "correct figures". But this is where the misunderstanding I alluded to earlier comes in. I've produced these figures because when I said I believed that the numbers were in decline in TH, plenty of people attacked that belief and in virtually every case they could offer nothing to support their claims other than a mistrust of the TH gov or anecdotes. You've seen in the past that I've looked for and found evidence that contradicted me earlier view and posted it. I've looked for the evidence that numbers are not falling in TH, and I just can't find it. 

But that hasn't satisfied some, so I made a case that points out that what is happening in TH, is reflected across the whole continent, that numbers are declining and that the decline in TH was not atypical for the region. I gave my reasons why I believed this, and in particular, If the region was going down by 5%, then TH figures were in the area of 5-10%. They were rolling out vaxxes. They were doing pretty much the same as the rest of the region in maintaining restrictions, and to support my belief that this was the key factor, I showed what was happening in Europe. Given this, why in all the circumstances would be people be saying that the numbers in TH are not declining. I invoked the original 16X from Europe (it's now 24X) because if the figures really were rising and it was nothing to do with behaviour (undermining my theory), then we should have seen the figures for both Asia and TH dramatically increase to such an extent, that a cover up would be impossible.

As you are aware, I can't wait to get to TH, the deal-breaker being whether the bars open or not. Recently, I've seen some posts along the lines of "The gov needs to hurry up and get those bars open". I've responded by posting the 24X figure as a warning of what happened when Europe did this and said that under the circumstances, I would not criticise TH for being cautious. I've even found myself agreeing with @LoongFredabout the need to keep the bars closed for a while yet, though not for the same reasons as him. Strange bedfellows don't you

I hope this will put my posts about 24X into context? However, just to add to it, I'm going to give you my guess about a truer number for Asia and my reasons for this. I believe it to be nearer to 900k last week as opposed to the 600k reported.  My reasoning is that I don't see China being any more competent than the average country in the region. As they represent about 32% of the region's population, I am inclined to believe that their infection rates would correspond to this too. That would add about 200k to the figure. If we factor in the mistrust of many govs in the region, how outrageous can they possibly be without being exposed by whistle-blowers. I'd suggest about 20% more for this, but not all of these countries are untrustworthy so make a 5% deduction for that, giving the best part of 100k. It's purely a guess, but if it is correct, it changes the European X factor to 16.

[JohninDublin]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

Hi John. I agree totally that rates increase when you reduce restrictions. Especially when you open bars and nightlife. Closer contact with more people means more infections. 
 

As for the infection rates falling in Thailand. Would you agree that if you test less you find less cases? Furthermore, if you are targeting testing to areas where you suspect there are hotspots, would you agree that halving the tests would more or less half the infections found? If so, do you think the attached graph, which shows a fall in testing, has a remarkable correlation with falls in cases? Hence could this be the reason case numbers are falling in Thailand? 
 

I've never disputed that if you test more you will find more. My belief is that those who say, "If they tested as many as they do in the UK, you'd find similar numbers" are a long-way off target. 

 

 

[Manu]

70% vaccinated in Phuket, all arrivals for months now are fully vaccinated and have had at least 2 negative tests before allowed to go out, Bangla Road has been partying for months already... isn't it enought for anyone to get back to work as usual? Anyone can give any proof that hospitals there are overwhelmed for the past 2 months... Sure we will get some infected, in a way those will be naturally immune together with the vaccinated for a while, how long is it needed and what is needed more than what has been done so far? 100% vaccinated (70% vaccinated in Phuket, surely that includes all the ones that at high risk)? Well even then sars-cov-2 will still be here, infect people and some will die. What will be the point when we realise that we have a new virus and a new disease, live with it and stop destroying so many lives with continuing restrictions that are doing more damages than good? To please the apocalyptic people here, let's say that ok, restrictions were needed until now, wether I agree or not. But surely this has to stop one day. When?? If 70% vaccinated including all high risks, and only vaccinated people coming, if it is not now then when? Never?

Thinking of all the billions spent for this and that related to covid, all these stupid schemes etc... if all these billions have been injected in the public health care system in Thailand, woudn't it be resolving the issue?

Covid crisis? More like a public health care systems crisis. Cause that is not only the case in Thailand of course. Let's take the UK for example. Goverments after governements have been dismantling the NHS, turning it to a bureaucratic nightmare and cutting off ressources year after year, etc... Lockdowns were implemented to "protect" the overwhelmed hospitals as if it was only covid's fault. Nope, it has been like that for years. You remember british people here how it was in winter 2019, just before covid? Like that https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-hospitals-boris-johnson-winter-crisis-emergency-beds-a9242961.html.... Never thought I would say that but bless Boris J. who eventually understood that harsh restrictions are not only postponing the problem while driving people crazy but it is doing more damages than good...at least now.

In France, same issue... I could do a copy/paste to what I just wrote about the UK. Hospital beds, including intnsive care beds, have been taken away year after year. In 2020 during covid? 5700 more hospital beds have disapeared... What covid crisis a rational person has the right to ask? And then the ATIH, an official French agency in charge of reporting all hospital activities in France, came up with their 2020 report recently: in 2020, covid hospitalisations amount to...2% of all hospitalisations, and 5% of intensive care (for the french speaking people, there it is https://www.atih.sante.fr/sites/default/files/public/content/4144/aah_2020_analyse_covid.pdf). For a change, I went to watch how the mainstream media will cover this news... Pathetic, embarrassing, I am lost for words... 3 days later, nobody is talking about it anymore. Covid crisis or health care system crisis??

[farang]

manu,you are 100% right!!this crazy restrictions on tourtist is killing  your buiness in thailand.not many are willing to jump thru so many crazy hoops.why not drop the one night hotel,and the high  covid test?thai does have a quick test that is cheaper and results in 20 min to one hour.the tourtist could take it at airport then be on their way.as it is now its a money grab rip off ,and most say the insurance they make you buy is no good! costing a tourtist about 350,000 baht if the test fails!as he is then in lock down for two weeks! all people coming from usa will have had their shots and booster.and most americans coming already have insurance!!!but the thai govt is insisting we buy from thai.and to accept our insurance they want our company to fill out a thai form,sign it and put it covers covid and stamp sealed on the thai form.well,i tried and ''no american insurance company is going to do that'' they will give us a paper stateing we have insurance but thats it.some people my age and older to buy another insurance we dont need for $950 usd to $1500 is crazy.and if staying only 5 or 6 months with o/a visa you still got to buy a year.pre booking the one night with a test and transport and so many on arriving are told;;;;;;no,thats not included,you have to pay more now.!!its a great road block to thai getting tourtist for sure.so many are like me and waiting for this to go away.on the insurance why not just charge  500 baht per month of your stay on arriving at airport to cover it.two months,1,000 bt,6 months3,000 bt for insurance and so on.that would be so easy and more will come.people dont like going on vacation not knowing whats going to happen when they arrive!many come for two weeks.so someone near them test pos!!then they are looking at 2 weeks lock down.getting released just in time to leave!crazy! chock dee to all.

[Dancbmac]

From what I have read covid is here to stay, similar to the flu and common cold.  Also those of us vaccinated can still get covid, but symptoms are not as severe or cause death in most peeps.  Sadly it is impossible to prevent all deaths from covid for those that do pass, as many have other underlying health issues.  We are all going to die eventually.  We are not locking down the world for other diseases that kill more people than just covid. Should the world continue to have lockdowns and restrictions to normal life forever?  Seems to me the best practice is to just get as many folks that want to be vaccinated done and it is looking like in the future we may need booster shots and try to live our lives.  Watching the news about China’s zero covid policy seems to be an insane impossible task.  Just like the flu or many other folks with health issues they cannot receive a covid vaccination without adverse reactions and these folks will require some more extreme measures to protect them.  My 83 year old mother had her MS under control and after she received her first vaccination her symptoms from MS came back.  My elderly father-in-law here in Thailand cannot get the vaccine so the family is extra careful with visits around him etc.  Seems like from all the mistakes from the past two years, officials could a consensus and come up with a common sense solution instead of throwing their hands up and say lock everything down??  Many here in Thailand still want the vaccination, but the government’s rollout could have been better.  No matter where we live, there will always be skeptics who refuse vaccinations, but they are a minority.  Vaccinate as a many who want them and get the world open again.

[Malc-Thai]

10 hours ago, vlad said:

Yet again I have to remind you, you cannot leave your country to fly anywhere if you fail your Pre flight Travel pass testing so unless you contact covid on route its not travelers bringing it into Thailand. To me its the staff being brought onto Phuket to fill the jobs that are bringing it in. How else can the cases be rising in the last few weeks.

Be honest Vlad there's a mixture of things.. to work in a bar then you are supposed to show vaccinated status or no work.. how official that really is we don't know?  And covid never left here . When they opened they hadn't reached 70% full vaccination just from the 60k that only had their first dose of az so in reality covid was still here just on the back burner now the nightlife is open and I can tell you from experience that very little covid procedures are followed.  That mass gatherings has now set that back burner off ..luckily most are vaccinated but many people from all over Thailand here that after their few days holiday then return to their province's where many are still waiting for their fist jab or a decent jab! 128 official covid today (pcr) and now 559 in covid care centres community isolation and hospitels for 10 days

[Thommo]

17 hours ago, Shark said:

now the funny thing this is all part of the so-called sponspored traveling aka we travel together.
Where they pay 50-80% less then we currently do, ain't that great!

Actually it is 40% and yes it is great if you have a Thai gf

[oldschooler]

covid & other disease death stats from China & India etc. are undoubtedly ludicrously understated for political purposes.

so quite wrong to compare any disease stats between accountable developed nations and unaccountable undeveloped countries.

vax -boosted antigens stop infection.vax- boosted b& t cells battle infection getting past antigens.

cases / infections medically irrelevant without known scientific test / trace / isolate program; non- existent here.

 

[vlad]

MM bad news i'm afraid there appears to be a new strain coming from South Africa that according to our Health Secretary Sajid Javid, the latest vaccine will be less efficient so worried we have banned people traveling into the UK from certain African areas with immediate affect.

[Shark]

2 hours ago, Thommo said:

Actually it is 40% and yes it is great if you have a Thai gf

depends on where. I've saw places giving special thai price + discount going up to 80%.
Happy for you that you have a thai gf.

[Soidog]

8 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

You imply a point that I totally agree with: That it is behaviour that is now the driving force. Most of Europe has been vaxxing as fast as they can, and then telling people go out and enjoy yourselves and infections are increasing. I'm sure you will concede that Europe's problems are to do with behaviour. If OTOH, Asia is also vaxxing as fast as they can, but still controlling behaviour, wouldn't you agree that rates are likely to be in decline in Asia? The problem I've been having is that several posters have said that if Asia or TH did the same amount of testing as the UK the figures would be similar.

I’ll have to look at the rest of your post a little later John. However I just wanted to say that I totally agree with the above part of your post.  At least in so far as Thailand is concerned. As you say, they still have restrictions and they are vaccinating and getting natural protection through case numbers. So yes, I would expect case numbers to be falling in Thailand overall. That said, and for the avoidance of doubt, the 6,000-7,000 cases per day reported is utter garbage. If they were testing like the U.K. or even places like Germany, the case numbers would be 25,000-50,000 a day. 

[JohninDublin]

4 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I’ll have to look at the rest of your post a little later John. However I just wanted to say that I totally agree with the above part of your post.  At least in so far as Thailand is concerned. As you say, they still have restrictions and they are vaccinating and getting natural protection through case numbers. So yes, I would expect case numbers to be falling in Thailand overall. That said, and for the avoidance of doubt, the 6,000-7,000 cases per day reported is utter garbage. If they were testing like the U.K. or even places like Germany, the case numbers would be 25,000-50,000 a day. 

I am sure we will have other equally polite exchanges in due course. But if everyone saw it your way, that in all the circumstances, it makes sense that the numbers are falling, it would have saved me hell of a lot of time explaining why I believe that to be the case. 

If that's what you believe to be likely, then we are in agreement. I never accepted the accuracy of the numbers put out by TH, but I did accept that they were falling.

[LoongFred]

10 hours ago, ace035 said:

Nothing to worry about, it's just a matter of minor outbreak, just need at least 3 days of major deep cleaning around the entertainment district of Bangla Road, as long as you fully vaccinated with either Moderna or Pfizer, your chances of getting COVID-19 will be slim.

It's not the fully vaccinated that worry me the most, it's spreading it to others. Remember most Thais received Sinovax. 

[Poolie]

3 hours ago, oldschooler said:

covid & other disease death stats from China & India etc. are undoubtedly ludicrously understated for political purposes.

so quite wrong to compare any disease stats between accountable developed nations and unaccountable undeveloped countries.

 

Interesting. How did you come to such a conclusion? If its not an impertinent question?

Not that I want to go off topic, but you have named almost half the world.

[oldschooler]

18 hours ago, Poolie said:

Interesting. How did you come to such a conclusion? If its not an impertinent question?

Not that I want to go off topic, but you have named almost half the world.

blindingly obvious. china official covid deaths around 5,000. not credible. india simply stopped counting.

both countries must each have way over a million covid dead by any regular projection. europe having “ 24x asian covid deaths”…. using “official” be t stats no doubt…..what a joke…. we know that non-white covid deaths in uk / europe are heavily disproportionate, for genetic or social reasons, so imagine the real situation for these people away from advanced health care.

yes over half the world are backward corrupt shitholes with authoritarian power mad elites in charge.no surprise. simple fact.

african or asian or latin american health agencies, if they even properly exist, are entirely subordinate to politics not science. not anywhere near the standard of impartial professional accountable western orgs like FDA,EMA, etc. thats why non- western covid vax, and related data or stats.,  are not approved in the advanced west. no surprise.

 

[Poolie]

6 minutes ago, oldschooler said:

blindingly obvious. china official covid deaths around 5,000. not credible. india simply stopped counting.

both countries must each have way over a million covid dead by any regular projection. europe having “ 24x asian covid deaths”…. using “official” be t stats no doubt…..what a joke…. we know that non-white covid deaths in uk / europe are heavily disproportionate, for genetic or social reasons, so imagine the real situation for these people away from advanced health care.

yes over half the world are backward corrupt shitholes with authoritarian power mad elites in charge.no surprise. simple fact.

african or asian or latin american health agencies, if they even properly exist, are entirely subordinate to politics not science. not anywhere near the standard of impartial professional accountable western orgs like FDA,EMA, etc. thats why non- western covid vax, and related data or stats.,  are not approved in the advanced west. no surprise.

Ah right. As I thought.