News Forum - American businesses pledge continued investment in Thailand

[Thaiger]

PM Prayut Chan-o-cha says that he is pleased with the ongoing economic relationship between Thailand and the United States. American businesses have pledged continued investment in the country as they acknowledge the many opportunities in Thailand, despite the setbacks that have been caused by Covid-19. A meeting between PM Prayut and the American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand (Amcham) was held yesterday via teleconference, reports the Bangkok Post. At the meeting, Amcham and the PM discussed the status of the Thai economy and made plans for continued cooperation in the future. Representatives from Amcham indicated their support for the government’s […]

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[Bob20]

Bla, bla, bla...

Same as TAT...

Just realise it is their JOB to talk this UP!

It's got nothing to do with reality.

[farang]

seems the govt  likes killing the thai  peoples  means of making money to support their families.im guessing a broke ,poor person is more easy to control.seems to be working.that most likely why no tourtist are coming as they are being blocked by restrictions!!on purpose no doubt.

[King Cotton]

33 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

A meeting between PM Prayut and the American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand (Amcham) was held yesterday via teleconference, reports the Bangkok Post. At the meeting, Amcham and the PM discussed the status of the Thai economy and made plans for continued cooperation in the future.

According to The World Bank, that doesn't, IMO, inspire much confidence for investment . . .

Economic activity is not expected to return to its pre-pandemic levels until 2022, and the recovery is projected to be slow and uneven.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/publication/thailand-economic-monitor-july-2021-the-road-to-recovery

This report outlines further downsides of Thailand's present economic standing, a position that hugely contrasts with this thread. Which is to be believed?

 

[ThaiEyes]

Well Thailand better not screw up the US investment, because it’s a full 10% of their GDP

[LoongFred]

Welcoming USA investment is a good thing. Thailand needs a diverse economic plan and welcoming USA development is critical. Hopefully USA companies will insist on transparent and fair practices.

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, LoongFred said:

Welcoming USA investment is a good thing. Thailand needs a diverse economic plan and welcoming USA development is critical. Hopefully USA companies will insist on transparent and fair practices.

No, because then it's a waste of time and they're not coming

[AussieBob]

5 minutes ago, King Cotton said:

According to The World Bank, that doesn't, IMO, inspire much confidence for investment . . .

Economic activity is not expected to return to its pre-pandemic levels until 2022, and the recovery is projected to be slow and uneven.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/publication/thailand-economic-monitor-july-2021-the-road-to-recovery

This report outlines further downsides of Thailand's present economic standing, a position that hugely contrasts with this thread. Which is to be believed?

I think the World Bank is being optimistic - Thailand's decline started in 2017 and firstly the Chinese boom in tourism and then the Pandemic merely covered up how bad it was.  The consistently high Baht after the Junta took over, took several years but it started to heavily impact Exports in 2017/18. All the Junta spending on Military Gear and Infrastructure Projects, based on a massive trade surplus, had started to bite by 2019.  Thailand has a serious debt and liquidity issue, that started before the pandemic. I think with China's recent economic problems also added to that, that Thailand could be in serious problems - unless a pro-business Govt gets elected in 2023 - one that will 'spread the wealth' to all Thais - which is basically what the World Bank is saying in that report - which the Junta will agree with and then ignore. 

[Shade_Wilder]

12 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

I think the World Bank is being optimistic - Thailand's decline started in 2017 and firstly the Chinese boom in tourism and then the Pandemic merely covered up how bad it was.  The consistently high Baht after the Junta took over, took several years but it started to heavily impact Exports in 2017/18. All the Junta spending on Military Gear and Infrastructure Projects, based on a massive trade surplus, had started to bite by 2019.  Thailand has a serious debt and liquidity issue, that started before the pandemic. I think with China's recent economic problems also added to that, that Thailand could be in serious problems - unless a pro-business Govt gets elected in 2023 - one that will 'spread the wealth' to all Thais - which is basically what the World Bank is saying in that report - which the Junta will agree with and then ignore. 

 

Spot on post

Other than the increase in Chinese tourism, what has been the bright spot of the Thai economy since the coup (hint: nothing really)? And, it really, really needs to be noted that China has a history of using its tourist numbers as a political weapon (S Korea 2017); Thailand has an ugly few moments coming up.

However, there is one spot that might actually be worse; no one really talks about Household Debt, especially Black-Market Household Debt, anymore and they really should. I don't have specific figures at my fingertips, but it was a growing problem that was reaching extremely serious levels before the Covid hit; does anyone think that it has improved during the lockdowns? 

And, it is all under the radar, just waiting to explode.

At the risk of using a terrible cliché, 'Winter is coming'.

 

[9S_]

But they dish out terrible bonuses to their employees unlike the Japanese companies 

[Griff1315]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

I think the World Bank is being optimistic - Thailand's decline started in 2017 and firstly the Chinese boom in tourism and then the Pandemic merely covered up how bad it was.  The consistently high Baht after the Junta took over, took several years but it started to heavily impact Exports in 2017/18. All the Junta spending on Military Gear and Infrastructure Projects, based on a massive trade surplus, had started to bite by 2019.  Thailand has a serious debt and liquidity issue, that started before the pandemic. I think with China's recent economic problems also added to that, that Thailand could be in serious problems - unless a pro-business Govt gets elected in 2023 - one that will 'spread the wealth' to all Thais - which is basically what the World Bank is saying in that report - which the Junta will agree with and then ignore. 

All good points Bob except the elections in 2023 if they go ahead, are only going to be allowed one outcome. The PM has already made it clear he wants another 8 years, the wish of the Thai people will not stand in his way....

[HiuMak]

2 hours ago, ThaiEyes said:

Well Thailand better not screw up the US investment, because it’s a full 10% of their GDP

like how the aussies screw the chinese?

[LoongFred]

1 hour ago, 9S_ said:

But they dish out terrible bonuses to their employees unlike the Japanese companies 

I don't know.  I always received great bonuses tied to achieving stated goals. Even the union employees received bonuses if goals met. We also received good retirement and health benefits. 

[Shark]

3 hours ago, King Cotton said:

Economic activity is not expected to return to its pre-pandemic levels until 2022, and the recovery is projected to be slow and uneven.

2032 seems more right.

[AussieBob]

3 hours ago, Shade_Wilder said:

Spot on post

Other than the increase in Chinese tourism, what has been the bright spot of the Thai economy since the coup (hint: nothing really)? And, it really, really needs to be noted that China has a history of using its tourist numbers as a political weapon (S Korea 2017); Thailand has an ugly few moments coming up.

However, there is one spot that might actually be worse; no one really talks about Household Debt, especially Black-Market Household Debt, anymore and they really should. I don't have specific figures at my fingertips, but it was a growing problem that was reaching extremely serious levels before the Covid hit; does anyone think that it has improved during the lockdowns? 

And, it is all under the radar, just waiting to explode.

At the risk of using a terrible cliché, 'Winter is coming'.

Yep - good point.  Thailand banks do not operate under the rules of international banking - that is why they are not accepted or approved in most other countries.  One oif the many 'bad accounting' practicies they indulge in is over-valuing the assets on bad debts.  They loan 1m for a truck worth 1.2m and then keep that 1m on their books - same for property. Thai Banks have massive bad debts geld against false asset values that are just sitting there waiting to collapse. Remember the sub-prime housing loans in USA - same same - just a matter of time.  Winter is definitely coming.

[AussieBob]

31 minutes ago, Shark said:

2032 seems more right.

Definitely not before 2023 

[9S_]

1 hour ago, LoongFred said:

I don't know.  I always received great bonuses tied to achieving stated goals. Even the union employees received bonuses if goals met. We also received good retirement and health benefits. 

Good to hear they’ve grown competitive over the years!

How many months will it be this year for your workers?

[Shark]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

Definitely not before 2023 

for sure. My glass sphere says by minimum 2027, and maximum for a little bit of a bounce by 2032.
I'm very curious how the greedy landlord's will be after already not receiving rent for 2 years on a lot of properties.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Shark

[JamesE]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

They loan 1m for a truck worth 1.2m and then keep that 1m on their books - same for property.

Monetization of debt. Standard practice everywhere. It used to be an unallowed practice but then they realized if it's an asset on their books they could loan money against it. That 1M gets borrowed against and then that gets borrowed against and then that gets borrowed against etc... And each of those loans is an asset... that can get borrowed against. Money is nothing more substantial than electrons.

[Jason]

What an interesting position for Thailand to be in. On the one hand, powerful China, who have to stay at home for a year and on the other hand the US who can invest and visit. Prayut will try to entertain both...but it is a dangerous game to play....

[AussieBob]

18 hours ago, Shark said:

for sure. My glass sphere says by minimum 2027, and maximum for a little bit of a bounce by 2032.
I'm very curious how the greedy landlord's will be after already not receiving rent for 2 years on a lot of properties.

Tim was at the Swampy airport Friday and the vast majority of passengers were local Thais - very very few 'international' tourists.  I cant see the locals giving enough business to open up all those shops and places - many wont be getting rent for a while longer. 

[AussieBob]

18 hours ago, JamesE said:

Monetization of debt. Standard practice everywhere. It used to be an unallowed practice but then they realized if it's an asset on their books they could loan money against it. That 1M gets borrowed against and then that gets borrowed against and then that gets borrowed against etc... And each of those loans is an asset... that can get borrowed against. Money is nothing more substantial than electrons.

Yep - it is rampant in Thailand and China and other 3rd level SEAsia countries. But in the west the Govts have implemented rules to make sure it is accounted for 'properly' - especially after the GFC.  If anyone didnt wonder why the Junta lowered their bank guaranteed amounts down to 1M baht when they were 5M baht before, this is part of the reason. The Junta will not bail out Thai Airways nor give cheap loans to businesses suffering due to Covid restrictions, and they will not bail out the banks either if/when they get into trouble. All Expats should be keeping their money overseas as much as possible, and the vast majority I know of do that - only bring in what is needed. 

[billywillyjones]

Thailand needs to focus on a few things.  They have a few key areas they can be successfull and that is agricultural prodution, fishing and tourism.  I think the manufacturing sector is moving to cheaper and potentially more productive countries such as Vietnam.  Thailand also need to restructure and reduce the ridiculous military sector which is nothing but an albatross around the necks of the Thai people.  And of course it would be refreshing to see someone actually do something about the courruption at the mega project graft level - the "VAK" tax as  I like to call it the value added kickback.  Those are my thoughts.

[Shark]

3 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Tim was at the Swampy airport Friday and the vast majority of passengers were local Thais - very very few 'international' tourists.  I cant see the locals giving enough business to open up all those shops and places - many wont be getting rent for a while longer. 

But Thailand sponsors local tourism by lower rates etc.

[JamesE]

5 hours ago, AussieBob said:

But in the west the Govts have implemented rules to make sure it is accounted for 'properly' - especially after the GFC.

Wellllllll....... Not exactly. It has always been "accounted" for properly, they just got carried away with the derivatives of derivatives pre-meltdown. But I think they (and other investors) learned not to stretch the line too taut last time. It's still going on, though - lately with cars and household debt. It's a game-able system, if you know what to look for and have some fiscal discipline, and can let one (me, for example) monetize their credit rating and borrow money for 0 - 2.5% (currently) when "normal" loans are going for about 10%+ (in the US, anyway).