News Forum - Zero chance of zero Covid: Chinese virologist slams government strategy

[Thaiger]

One of China’s top virologists has launched a rare attack on the government, criticising its insistence on pursuing a so-called “Covid Zero” strategy. According to a Bloomberg report, Guan Yi from the University of Hong Kong says the government’s attempts to quash the virus through mass testing and harsh quarantines are doomed to fail. “We don’t stand a chance if we pursue a target of zero Covid. The virus is here to stay, just like flu. That’s a fact, whether people like it or not.” Instead, Guan says the government should focus on checking how effective its vaccine rollout has […]

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[Shade_Wilder]

"“We don’t stand a chance if we pursue a target of zero Covid. The virus is here to stay, just like flu. That’s a fact, whether people like it or not.”"

I couldn't agree more.

Get everyone vaccinated with good vaccines in order to keep the cases requiring hospitalization to a minimum and then lets get on with life.

I have had enough of this shit.

[Jason]

Covid Zero really is a mirage. Elimination (and I come from a state that achieved it), cost so much with restrictions, lockdowns, mass testing and so on. Unless China intends to literally hold it's collective breath......no chance. The only role of suppression is to buy time to vaccinate as many as possible. Elimination may result in lower numbers, but it can also result in much slower vaccination take up. My own country is an example in point.  

[Jason]

Different states and territories, some suppressing, others vaccinating like there's no tomorrow. 

[javada88]

I agree with the article and the comment. Concentrate on research and developing good vaccins and stop with lockdowns, quarantines, curfews, and other not realy effective measures and rules against COVID. Consider COVID as something like the flu, learn to accept and to live with it.

 

 

[AussieBob]

23 minutes ago, Shade_Wilder said:

"“We don’t stand a chance if we pursue a target of zero Covid. The virus is here to stay, just like flu. That’s a fact, whether people like it or not.”"

I couldn't agree more.

Get everyone vaccinated with good vaccines in order to keep the cases requiring hospitalization to a minimum and then lets get on with life.

I have had enough of this shit.

I agree - but only on the basis that those who refuse to get vaccinated are excluded where people gather in numbers (planes, airports, sports, movies, concerts, clubs, restaurants, bars, etc). The only long term solution is vaccination and thereby herd immunity - most of us are going to get it in the next few years.  But those refusing to go along with and contribute to the herd, cannot then demand to also join with the herd.  IMO that should be the case until Covid becomes like the flu, whereby vaccines and medical treatments are at the stage whereby incidents of infections are greatly reduced and the subsequent levels of ICU/Deaths is also drastically reduced. That can only really be measured after international travel opens back up and becomes 'new normal' again - late 2022 early 2023 I reckon.  Carrot and Stick - works every time - and is the only way guaranteed to work. 

[HolyCowCm]

And then there was silence and Guan Yi was never seen or heard from again.

[ThaiEyes]

I think the final score will be: 

 Covid 1

 China 0 

 

[Desmondo69]

28 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

I agree - but only on the basis that those who refuse to get vaccinated are excluded where people gather in numbers (planes, airports, sports, movies, concerts, clubs, restaurants, bars, etc). The only long term solution is vaccination and thereby herd immunity - most of us are going to get it in the next few years.  But those refusing to go along with and contribute to the herd, cannot then demand to also join with the herd.  IMO that should be the case until Covid becomes like the flu, whereby vaccines and medical treatments are at the stage whereby incidents of infections are greatly reduced and the subsequent levels of ICU/Deaths is also drastically reduced. That can only really be measured after international travel opens back up and becomes 'new normal' again - late 2022 early 2023 I reckon.  Carrot and Stick - works every time - and is the only way guaranteed to work. 

If you are vaccinated why are you afraid of someone thats not .your safe right!!!

Its a personal choice simple as that .

[TV7]

Well, thats probably the last time we will hear from this person ever again

[DiggR]

18 minutes ago, Desmondo69 said:

If you are vaccinated why are you afraid of someone thats not .your safe right!!!

Its a personal choice simple as that .

 

Agree that it is a personal choice but your simplistic view is flawed.  There are valid reasons supported by those pesky facts, logic is the reason for concern, fear factor trolling is not.

 

Some people are wondering, why would a vaccinated person care about the vaccine status of another person?

Briefly, it’s because vaccines reduce the probability of getting infected, which reduces the probability of a vaccinated person infecting someone else. And, despite vaccination providing excellent protection against severe disease, a small proportion of vaccinated people still require ICU care. Therefore some vaccinated people may have a strong preference to mix primarily with other vaccinated people.

But what exactly is the risk of catching COVID from someone who’s unvaccinated?

What’s the relative risk?

Recent reports from the Victorian Department of Health find that unvaccinated people are ten times more likely to contract COVID than vaccinated people.

We also know that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the disease even if they become infected. The Doherty modelling from August puts the reduction at around 65%, although more recent research has suggested a lower estimate for AstraZeneca. Hence for this thought experiment, we’ll take a lower value of 50%.

As the prevalence of COVID changes over time, it’s hard to estimate an absolute risk of exposure. So instead, we need to think about risks in a relative sense.

If I were spending time with an unvaccinated person, then there’s some probability they’re infected and will infect me. However, if they were vaccinated, they’re ten times less likely to be infected and half as likely to infect me, following the numbers above.

Hence we arrive at a 20-fold reduction in risk when hanging out with a vaccinated person compared to someone who’s not vaccinated.

https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/covid/risk-of-catching-covid-from-an-unvaccinated-person/?amp=1

 

 

[Thommo]

44 minutes ago, Desmondo69 said:

If you are vaccinated why are you afraid of someone thats not .your safe right!!!

Its a personal choice simple as that .

If you assume you are safe even with you are vaccinated then you would be mistaken

I'm very happy to kow that when fly that risk is reduced of myself contracting covid,  My personel choice  

[EdwardV]

You have to wonder why China is sticking with a strategy that has pretty much failed everywhere (against the delta variant). Could it be they have no choice since most everyone has been given Sinovac and Sinopharm? A vaccine which has been proven to be next to worthless against the delta variant. 

[Poolie]

1 hour ago, ThaiEyes said:

I think the final score will be: 

 Covid 1

 China 0 

You 'guest' is surely taking his time about it.

[El_Trauco]

1 hour ago, DiggR said:

Agree that it is a personal choice but your simplistic view is flawed.  There are valid reasons supported by those pesky facts, logic is the reason for concern, fear factor trolling is not.

Some people are wondering, why would a vaccinated person care about the vaccine status of another person?

Briefly, it’s because vaccines reduce the probability of getting infected, which reduces the probability of a vaccinated person infecting someone else. And, despite vaccination providing excellent protection against severe disease, a small proportion of vaccinated people still require ICU care. Therefore some vaccinated people may have a strong preference to mix primarily with other vaccinated people.

But what exactly is the risk of catching COVID from someone who’s unvaccinated?

What’s the relative risk?

Recent reports from the Victorian Department of Health find that unvaccinated people are ten times more likely to contract COVID than vaccinated people.

We also know that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the disease even if they become infected. The Doherty modelling from August puts the reduction at around 65%, although more recent research has suggested a lower estimate for AstraZeneca. Hence for this thought experiment, we’ll take a lower value of 50%.

As the prevalence of COVID changes over time, it’s hard to estimate an absolute risk of exposure. So instead, we need to think about risks in a relative sense.

If I were spending time with an unvaccinated person, then there’s some probability they’re infected and will infect me. However, if they were vaccinated, they’re ten times less likely to be infected and half as likely to infect me, following the numbers above.

Hence we arrive at a 20-fold reduction in risk when hanging out with a vaccinated person compared to someone who’s not vaccinated.

https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/covid/risk-of-catching-covid-from-an-unvaccinated-person/?amp=1

Here's a chart that illustrates that point.

[Bob20]

Same old discussion.

By all means, let's get back to some normality.

But not until everyone had a chance to get vaccinated with a good vaccine against Delta.

The ones that refuse a vaccine take their own chances, but the ones who were lucky to get vaccinated early shouldn't selfishly get on with life whilst spreading the problem to those who are still at risk.

[Poolie]

I object!! Both the characters in your chart are men!! Do men only spread Covid? Women have an equal chance of disease spreading and should be given a realistic chance to do so. Damn your blatant sexism!!

[Dedinbed]

3 hours ago, Thaiger said:

We don’t stand a chance if we pursue a target of zero Covid

Not even for one day .? 

What did zero say to number 8 .? Nice belt .. 

[Lawyers_Guns_and_Money]

2 hours ago, TV7 said:

Well, thats probably the last time we will hear from this person ever again

He was last seen staring down a tank.

[Convert54]

52 minutes ago, Poolie said:

I object!! Both the characters in your chart are men!! Do men only spread Covid? Women have an equal chance of disease spreading and should be given a realistic chance to do so. Damn your blatant sexism!!

But what if one of them is a Tom?

[riclag]

Special shout out to the sympathizers of the WHO and the CCP where the poison has its origins in China according to reports!

Back in 2019  , some Chinese whistle blowers were stymied from reporting on this. Can’t forget about the WHO advizing Govt not to close down ports of trade  ! 

[Poolie]

34 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

But what if one of them is a Tom?

Details, details.

[Thommo]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Same old discussion.

By all means, let's get back to some normality.

But not until everyone had a chance to get vaccinated with a good vaccine against Delta.

The ones that refuse a vaccine take their own chances, but the ones who were lucky to get vaccinated early shouldn't selfishly get on with life whilst spreading the problem to those who are still at risk.

Sorry I do not wish to wait, i do consider myself lucky to have been double vac with a  decent vaccine her in Thailand.   I will start to travel end of this month with quarentine exemptions   I don't consider myself selfish but you may

[Bob20]

26 minutes ago, Thommo said:

Sorry I do not wish to wait, i do consider myself lucky to have been double vac with a  decent vaccine her in Thailand.   I will start to travel end of this month with quarentine exemptions   I don't consider myself selfish but you may

It's not a personal criticism, as movement can't be completely stopped anyway. But mass movement amongst a still largely unprotected population now, is no different from before when all sorts of harsh measures were necessary. 

And I find how a person is considered, is best left up to others.

[AussieBob]

4 hours ago, Desmondo69 said:

If you are vaccinated why are you afraid of someone thats not .your safe right!!!

Its a personal choice simple as that .

Its also a personal choice of each member of the herd - get vaccinated or you cannot join in with us.