News Forum - Tuesday Covid Update: 6,904 new cases and 61 deaths

[Bob20]

10 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I've already dealt with your theories on testing, and I am not really talking about comparisons with other countries, though this does give some clues. My position is that the infections are falling in TH from all the evidence I've seen.

If you want to keep going on about differences in testing standards, then it must be applied to all the data. We know that TH reported a peak infection of 23k one day. They are currently reporting 7k. You talk about extrapolation. If you want to do that to the 7k figure, then you must also do it with the 23k. So I will ask again, how does that further your claim that cases are not in decline in TH?

Because there is no huge difference between 23k positives out of 80k sample test size and 7k positives out of 28k sample test size.

(The 28k is my guestimate, as ourworldindata doesn't yet give the sample size for the latest CCSA figures, but the sample size was declining)

[Stonker]

47 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Let's get to the point and stop chasing our tails.  Do you have any conclusive proof that because we can't trust the TH gov figures, that they cannot possibly be in decline?

I think I'll leave the tail-chasing in ever decreasing circles until you disappear up somewhere to you on this one, @JohninDubin , as it seems to have boiled down to either the figures can't be true because they're Thai, or they can't be true because they haven't wasted $50 billion on testing the wrong people.

Good luck .

[JohninDublin]

9 minutes ago, Soidog said:

To me, the numbers could be going up just as likely as they are going down based on “official” numbers. I do think numbers are falling but that is mainly due to restrictions and the logic that follows. I don’t believe they are falling because the Thai government say they are. 

Which has been my stance from the outset in this thread. 

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Because there is no huge difference between 23k positives out of 80k sample test size and 7k positives out of 28k sample test size.

(The 28k is my guestimate, as ourworldindata doesn't yet give the sample size for the latest CCSA figures, but the sample size was declining)

The question this now poses is, "Has the number of tests declined because the gov has cut back on them, or is another possible explanation, something we have discussed already: That Thais are more likely to get tested when because they feel unwell? Or to put it another way, is the sample declining because fewer people are feeling unwell? In which case that supports my case that the numbers are in decline. 

Presuming your guesstimate is "ball park", then 7k is what we might expect from current TH test figures, but I've not seen anything to suggest that the current number of tests is being limited by the gov.