News Forum - Tuesday Covid Update: 6,904 new cases and 61 deaths

[Manu]

2 hours ago, Soidog said:

To be honest John, I’ve given up debating the data now. It’s simply a waste of time given the access we have to the data. The differences in what test data is collected and the definition of death from Covid.
 

All I will do is list a few key numbers and make a few comments or observations. I will compare the U.K. with Thailand for no other reason that they have similar populations. 
 

Tests performed daily :

UK - 720,000  Thailand -38,000 

Daily positive cases:

UK 38,000  Thailand 8,000

Daily deaths:

Uk 117  Thailand 75

Percentage of tests confirmed positive: 

U.K. - 5%.  Thailand 20%

Double vaccination rate: 

U.K. 79.5%. Thailand 49%

So what does all the above tell us?

The fully vaccinated rate in the U.K. is 30% higher than Thailand with AZ and Pfizer and yet it has 4.5 times as many infected people and 56% more daily deaths. The U.K. tests over 20 times as many people as Thailand and yet it’s percentage of positive tests is 1 in every 20 test, whereas Thailand is 1 in every 5 test  

What could be causing this seemingly counterintuitive set of data?

Higher population Density in U.K. 

The U.K. has been fully opened longer and things like the wearing of face masks, social distancing and limitations on the numbers attending gatherings has largely been removed. 

The U.K. weather is colder. 

The UK population is more mobile with many more people commuting daily.  

Could these factors be the reason for the apparent disconnect? Possibly? 

...you forgot one factor, the vaccine roll out has started 10 months ago in the UK amongst the most vulnerables and these vaccines are clearly waning after a while, especially amongst the elderlies (obviously), especially the Pfizer as it has shown clearly in Israel too.

[Soidog]

6 minutes ago, Manu said:

...you forgot one factor, the vaccine roll out has started 10 months ago in the UK amongst the most vulnerables and these vaccines are clearly waning after a while, especially amongst the elderlies (obviously), especially the Pfizer as it has shown clearly in Israel too.

7.5 million people over 50 have now had a third “Booster” shot since September 16th. It still doesn’t explain the differences in infections and deaths in Thailand which is around 40% less protected than the U.K., many with inferior Sinovac also. Difficult to know if it’s true or plain fiction….

[Manu]

6 minutes ago, Soidog said:

7.5 million people over 50 have now had a third “Booster” shot since September 16th. It still doesn’t explain the differences in infections and deaths in Thailand which is around 40% less protected than the U.K., many with inferior Sinovac also. Difficult to know if it’s true or plain fiction….

Perhaps cause there is no explanation that all no-experts like us can figure out...perhaps even real experts can either?

For no-experts like us, perhaps it would ne more interesting to compare with a neighbouring country, like Malaysia for example. The diagrams from June to now are very similar for both countries, which have had the arrival of the delta variant at the same time (as all SE Asia)

7th November - 4543 cases in Malaysia / 7593 cases in Thailand

7th November - 35 deaths in Malaysia / 53 deaths in Thailand

Malaysia has roughly half of the population of Thailand. Then those numbers seem to make sense. Just saying...

[Stonker]

8 hours ago, Soidog said:

So what does all the above tell us?

It all depends on what you want to hear.

What it told the Parliamentary Commons Committee in October was that "The national test-and-trace programme was allocated eye-watering sums of taxpayers’ money in the midst of a global health and economic crisis. It set out bold ambitions but has failed to achieve them despite the vast sums thrown at it.

Only 14% of 691m lateral flow tests sent out had results reported, and who knows how many took the necessary action based on the results they got, or how many were never used. The continued reliance on the over-priced consultants who ‘delivered’ this state of affairs will by itself cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of pounds” and that it was a complete waste of £37 billion / $50 billion.

What it told Greg Clark last month, the chair of Parliament's Science and Technology Committee, was that it was "an extraordinary sum of money" to spend on a system that didn't work efficiently, "That is a thousand pounds for every household in the country....When you consider the uses of taxpayer money...the performance of NHS test and trace coupled with the money that has gone into it...that is a real failure,"

What it told the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee before that, back in May, was that the testing was making  "no measurable difference to the progress of the pandemic" and that it was an "unimaginable" waste of resources: "Yet despite the unimaginable resources thrown at this project Test and Trace cannot point to a measurable difference to the progress of the pandemic, and the promise on which this huge expense was justified - avoiding another lockdown – has been broken, twice.

DHSC and NHST&T must rapidly turn around these fortunes and begin to demonstrate the worth and value of this staggering investment of taxpayers' money. Not only is it essential it delivers an effective system as pupils return to school and more people return to their workplace, but for the £billions spent we need to see a top class legacy system. British taxpayers cannot be treated by Government like an ATM machine. We need to see a clear plan and costs better controlled."

Those who spent the "extraordinary sum of money" took a different view.

8 hours ago, Soidog said:

The U.K. tests over 20 times as many people as Thailand and yet it’s percentage of positive tests is 1 in every 20 test, whereas Thailand is 1 in every 5 test  

 

The UK, again according to the Commons Committee, has been consistently testing the wrong people, tesing not only those who want to be tested, many of them multiple times, but who are the least likely to test positive: "Even now, uptake of NHS test and trace is still “variable” as some vulnerable people are much less likely to take a test than others, the report says. Urgent improvements are needed in public outreach, with more than 60% of people who experience Covid-19 symptoms reporting that they have not been tested, and certain groups, such as older people, men, and some ethnic minorities, less likely to engage with the service." It's not only not targeted, but it's avoiding those who need to be tested the most - Thailand's system is the complete reverse.

It's the difference between a machine gunner spraying thousands of rounds in the wrong direction and a sniper picking their target.

... at least, that's the unanimous and repeated view of all the Commons Committees and the experts who've looked at testing in the UK.

8 hours ago, Soidog said:

Could these factors be the reason for the apparent disconnect? Possibly?

 

 

Not according to any of the Commons Committees and the experts, but as I suggested at the start of this comment, raw statistics often only tell people what they want to hear.

 

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, Manu said:

Perhaps cause there is no explanation that all no-experts like us can figure out...perhaps even real experts can either?

Agreed absolutely, @Manu - maybe that suggests we should listen to the experts when they've figured it out, particularly if they all agree.

[Bob20]

4 hours ago, Soidog said:

7.5 million people over 50 have now had a third “Booster” shot since September 16th. It still doesn’t explain the differences in infections and deaths in Thailand which is around 40% less protected than the U.K., many with inferior Sinovac also. Difficult to know if it’s true or plain fiction….

There are different reasons for "testing".

One can test for generally mapping a problem. That should be done as randomly as possible and in relatively high numbers to represent a general overview of what you're dealing with.

One can also test for specifically finding a problem in order to solve it there and then. Then you want to test in locations and individuals with high risk or in already known or suspected clusters. 

Problem here in Thailand is that they mostly do the latter, but present some of the resulting absolute figures as an overview of the former. 

[JohninDublin]

11 hours ago, Soidog said:

To be honest John, I’ve given up debating the data now. It’s simply a waste of time given the access we have to the data. The differences in what test data is collected and the definition of death from Covid.
 

All I will do is list a few key numbers and make a few comments or observations. I will compare the U.K. with Thailand for no other reason that they have similar populations. 
 

Tests performed daily :

UK - 720,000  Thailand -38,000 

Daily positive cases:

UK 38,000  Thailand 8,000

Daily deaths:

Uk 117  Thailand 75

Percentage of tests confirmed positive: 

U.K. - 5%.  Thailand 20%

Double vaccination rate: 

U.K. 79.5%. Thailand 49%

So what does all the above tell us?

The fully vaccinated rate in the U.K. is 30% higher than Thailand with AZ and Pfizer and yet it has 4.5 times as many infected people and 56% more daily deaths. The U.K. tests over 20 times as many people as Thailand and yet it’s percentage of positive tests is 1 in every 20 test, whereas Thailand is 1 in every 5 test  

What could be causing this seemingly counterintuitive set of data?

Higher population Density in U.K. 

The U.K. has been fully opened longer and things like the wearing of face masks, social distancing and limitations on the numbers attending gatherings has largely been removed. 

The U.K. weather is colder. 

The UK population is more mobile with many more people commuting daily.  

Could these factors be the reason for the apparent disconnect? Possibly? 

I'm not sure what your message is here? 

Europe, including the UK has now lifted most of the restrictions and is now reporting 16X the infections and 11X the deaths of Asia who have kept most of the restrictions. Does that mean that infections in TH can't possibly be down?

[Soidog]

3 hours ago, Bob20 said:

Problem here in Thailand is that they mostly do the latter, but present some of the resulting absolute figures as an overview of the former.

That’s exactly right @Bob20 . It’s just classic misrepresentation and results in less informed to believe the real situation is far better than it actually is. They also look at other countries where they are doing high volume randomised testing and imply a better situation. 

[Soidog]

19 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I'm not sure what your message is here? 

Europe, including the UK has now lifted most of the restrictions and is now reporting 16X the infections and 11X the deaths of Asia who have kept most of the restrictions. Does that mean that infections in TH can't possibly be down?

I posted what I did simply to highlight the  many differences with even the high level data. It illustrates the conflicting numbers and shows differences which means you can’t take one country (U.K. for example) and look at infections compared to Thailand and jump to a quick conclusion. I see comments such as “I know where I would rather be. It’s much safer out in Thailand right now”. Or even more dangerous comments such as  “well look at the U.K. numbers compared to Thailand. It shows the vaccines don’t work”.
 

As @Bob20 commented today, you can say you are “testing” and do it in a totally different way to another country and then imply the situation is better.

Im almost certain the infections are down in Thailand. You would expect them to be given the restrictions in place (lockdowns work).  However, given the way they test, it would be dangerous to report 7,000 daily cases and compare it to the U.K. 40,000 and then make decisions on removing restrictions because there are 5 or 6 times less people infected in the population compared to the U.K. 

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I posted what I did simply to highlight the  many differences with even the high level data. It illustrates the conflicting numbers and shows differences which means you can’t take one country (U.K. for example) and look at infections compared to Thailand and jump to a quick conclusion. I see comments such as “I know where I would rather be. It’s much safer out in Thailand right now”. Or even more dangerous comments such as  “well look at the U.K. numbers compared to Thailand. It shows the vaccines don’t work”.
 

As @Bob20 commented today, you can say you are “testing” and do it in a totally different way to another country and then imply the situation is better.

Im almost certain the infections are down in Thailand. You would expect them to be given the restrictions in place (lockdowns work).  However, given the way they test, it would be dangerous to report 7,000 daily cases and compare it to the U.K. 40,000 and then make decisions on removing restrictions because there are 5 or 6 times less people infected in the population compared to the U.K. 

@Soidog couldn't agree more. Absolute numbers mean nothing in this scenario. You have to look at relative occurrence. And even then conclusions are probably impossible to draw as the different figures are not obtained by the same method. (Half way through a reply to John, more soon)

[Bob20]

36 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I'm not sure what your message is here? 

Europe, including the UK has now lifted most of the restrictions and is now reporting 16X the infections and 11X the deaths of Asia who have kept most of the restrictions. Does that mean that infections in TH can't possibly be down?

 

Sorry John, you didn't address me, but I have an issue with transposing these factors between countries.

What you should do is compare the increased factor of infections in the UK with the change in serious illness and death. That will give you vaccine effectiveness.

And similarly, you should compare the previous 60k tests in Thailand and 15k infections, with 30k tests and 7k infections, making no significant difference. That's not surprising in a country that's only starting to open up, but no reason to assume all is well here. Because especially case numbers are skewered while they're not adding ATK positives and hiding them away, although the government claim to use kits that give at most 2% false positives.

Then: Of course it is prudent that symptomless cases do not fill hospitals but are in some way otherwise isolated (home, hotel, field hospital). But again what they do doesn't make sense, as they send symptomless PCR positives to hospital and symptomless ATK positives to alternative places. It's for no other reason than to massage the figures to cleverly suit a narrative.

That one person sees the positive side and another is sceptic is precisely what they want while they drag matters out with some restrictions, difficult entry procedures and at the same time claiming that the country is open.

Time will tell who was right and I hope it's you. But I'm not betting on it. After the attempt to save face and make some money in the most popular time of year is over, things may well turn sour.

 

[Guevara]

9 hours ago, Soidog said:

7.5 million people over 50 have now had a third “Booster” shot since September 16th. It still doesn’t explain the differences in infections and deaths in Thailand which is around 40% less protected than the U.K., many with inferior Sinovac also. Difficult to know if it’s true or plain fiction….

Dishonesty or manipulation of figures is convenient, especially if you want to make the REAL situation not look so bad. Think of a number and divide by 4 or 6 or even 10. Some countries are open and honest with their figures, others choose otherwise.

[Soidog]

8 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

That one person sees the positive side and another is sceptic is precisely what they want while they drag matters out with some restrictions, difficult entry procedures and at the same time claiming that the country is open.

That sums up the Thai government approach to many things. Two faced and duplicitous to be polite. And crafty, sneaky SOB’s to be more direct.  

[JohninDublin]

15 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I posted what I did simply to highlight the  many differences with even the high level data. It illustrates the conflicting numbers and shows differences which means you can’t take one country (U.K. for example) and look at infections compared to Thailand and jump to a quick conclusion. I see comments such as “I know where I would rather be. It’s much safer out in Thailand right now”. Or even more dangerous comments such as  “well look at the U.K. numbers compared to Thailand. It shows the vaccines don’t work”.
 

As @Bob20 commented today, you can say you are “testing” and do it in a totally different way to another country and then imply the situation is better.

Im almost certain the infections are down in Thailand. You would expect them to be given the restrictions in place (lockdowns work).  However, given the way they test, it would be dangerous to report 7,000 daily cases and compare it to the U.K. 40,000 and then make decisions on removing restrictions because there are 5 or 6 times less people infected in the population compared to the U.K. 

Thanks for your reply, but I am still having trouble connecting it to the relevance of my posts. I seem to have attracted a lot of posts because I said I believe that the figures are going down in TH. Most of the responses I've had criticising that are "Don't believe the figures from TH". I don't. But, and this is not a question that I am pointing at you, does that mean that figures can't be going down?

In the past month, TH has increased the number of "fully vaxxed" by about 7 mill, while maintaining most of the restrictions that Europe has more or less abandoned. Infection figures from one month ago are 10600 compared to 6900 yesterday. In all the circumstances, should we not expect to see a fall in these numbers. Go back to two months ago, just about the time when AZ was being given as a 2nd/booster shot, and since then the number of fully vaxxed has increased by 18 mill while infections were 16k a day at that point. Most of us posting on this thread believe in vaxxing, yet somehow with TH administering 43 mill vaxxes in the past two months, which is enough to fully vax 30% of the population, there are those who insist that the numbers can't be falling on the statement of, "I don't know what the figures are but the TH figures can't be trusted". 

My position is that just because we mistrust the TH figures, that does not mean that the figures cannot be falling.

[JohninDublin]

37 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Sorry John, you didn't address me, but I have an issue with transposing these factors between countries.

What you should do is compare the increased factor of infections in the UK with the change in serious illness and death. That will give you vaccine effectiveness.

And similarly, you should compare the previous 60k tests in Thailand and 15k infections, with 30k tests and 7k infections, making no significant difference. That's not surprising in a country that's only starting to open up, but no reason to assume all is well here. Because especially case numbers are skewered while they're not adding ATK positives and hiding them away, although the government claim to use kits that give at most 2% false positives.

Then: Of course it is prudent that symptomless cases do not fill hospitals but are in some way otherwise isolated (home, hotel, field hospital). But again what they do doesn't make sense, as they send symptomless PCR positives to hospital and symptomless ATK positives to alternative places. It's for no other reason than to massage the figures to cleverly suit a narrative.

That one person sees the positive side and another is sceptic is precisely what they want while they drag matters out with some restrictions, difficult entry procedures and at the same time claiming that the country is open.

Time will tell who was right and I hope it's you. But I'm not betting on it. After the attempt to save face and make some money in the most popular time of year is over, things may well turn sour.

Feel free to join in. No need to apologise.

I don't say that I am right on this issue, but is it impossible that the TH gov have lied and the figures can't be falling? If I want to split hairs with you, I could point out that on Aug 11th, there were over 23k cases. So unless you believe that there over 23k cases today, then you have to conclude from that cherry-picked number cases are in decline.

During the meantime, if you compare the figures for Asia and Europe, the latter has 16x more infections and 11x more deaths per capita than Asia in the past 7 days, while the overall trend in Asia is down. One explanation for this is that most of Asia has retained many of the restrictions that were first used to counter the disease, whereas Europe has gone the opposite direction. So if the trend for Asia is down, why should it not be the same in TH, especially given that they have had a significant vax roll-out? 

[Soidog]

6 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Thanks for your reply, but I am still having trouble connecting it to the relevance of my posts. I seem to have attracted a lot of posts because I said I believe that the figures are going down in TH. Most of the responses I've had criticising that are "Don't believe the figures from TH". I don't. But, and this is not a question that I am pointing at you, does that mean that figures can't be going down?

In the past month, TH has increased the number of "fully vaxxed" by about 7 mill, while maintaining most of the restrictions that Europe has more or less abandoned. Infection figures from one month ago are 10600 compared to 6900 yesterday. In all the circumstances, should we not expect to see a fall in these numbers. Go back to two months ago, just about the time when AZ was being given as a 2nd/booster shot, and since then the number of fully vaxxed has increased by 18 mill while infections were 16k a day at that point. Most of us posting on this thread believe in vaxxing, yet somehow with TH administering 43 mill vaxxes in the past two months, which is enough to fully vax 30% of the population, there are those who insist that the numbers can't be falling on the statement of, "I don't know what the figures are but the TH figures can't be trusted". 

My position is that just because we mistrust the TH figures, that does not mean that the figures cannot be falling.

Hi John. My post wasn’t to agree or disagree that the Thai cases are coming down. I really don’t know if the “real” situation on the ground is improving in Thailand. The test and case numbers just mean nothing to me anymore. I could dismiss them by saying they have halved the tests and so will find half the cases; though that also doesn’t really give a true picture of what the infection rate is really like. 
 

I guess my main point was to say to ALL, not just you, that caution is needed when you see these daily case numbers going down down down.

I would hope the hospitalisation and death numbers are declining for the reason you identified of increased vaccinations, but that doesn’t mean there will be less cases. I would be surprised if the restrictions in place meant Thailand’s “peak” infections were around 25,000 a day (if memory serves me well).  I believe the number to have been far higher, maybe 50,00-70,000 a day and that number is now down to around 30,000-40,000. Still coming down, but is it at a sufficiently low enough level to make it safe to open up society fully?
 

To me, this is the key question all governments are trying to answer. When have we got infections under sufficient control to make it safe to ease off restrictions? Some will say “Well the U.K. did it when they had 7,000 a day, so Thailand should do the same and open up now”. Well yes, but in the U.K. the number probably was closer to the reported 7,000 a day. In Thailand the reported number is a sub-set of the real number. The case number trend is down, the hospitalisation trend is down and the death rate trend is down. Case numbers down because daily tests are down? Maybe. Hospitalisation numbers are down because a change of policy on who they hospitalise? Maybe. Deaths down because of vaccines or they have recategorised what is a Covid death is? Maybe. 
 

That’s my only point really John. Don’t be making decisions and conning the public on a subset of data or data derived in a culture where the government narrative must be shown to be working . 
 

[Bob20]

13 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Feel free to join in. No need to apologise.

I don't say that I am right on this issue, but is it impossible that the TH gov have lied and the figures can't be falling? If I want to split hairs with you, I could point out that on Aug 11th, there were over 23k cases. So unless you believe that there over 23k cases today, then you have to conclude from that cherry-picked number cases are in decline.

During the meantime, if you compare the figures for Asia and Europe, the latter has 16x more infections and 11x more deaths per capita than Asia in the past 7 days, while the overall trend in Asia is down. One explanation for this is that most of Asia has retained many of the restrictions that were first used to counter the disease, whereas Europe has gone the opposite direction. So if the trend for Asia is down, why should it not be the same in TH, especially given that they have had a significant vax roll-out? 

We hit on that in PM John.

The infection figures don't go down significantly purely due to vaccination as vaccination protects but doesn't prevent contracting or spreading the virus.

Also we see a congruent decline in absolute cases and test numbers, ignoring ATK positives, which (when added) should of course make case numbers increase.

And on top, there's the easing of restrictions that we have seen, especially Bangkok residents starting to travel all over the country, together with Covid tiredness and increasing defiance of the preventative rules.

So is it theoretically possible? Yes.

Do we see it? Yes, but only in the absolute infection number decreasing due to fewer PCR tests. But in the same way you could double the number of tests tomorrow and be shocked because of the double number of absolute infections. We don't see it in the ratio of positives found.

In my opinion the goalposts are constantly moved, making this a clever balancing act to gain something from the high season, while true comparisons are impossible. And you know my opinion as to who and why. Let's hope the spinning plates don't all come crashing down.

[Griff1315]

10 hours ago, Soidog said:

7.5 million people over 50 have now had a third “Booster” shot since September 16th. It still doesn’t explain the differences in infections and deaths in Thailand which is around 40% less protected than the U.K., many with inferior Sinovac also. Difficult to know if it’s true or plain fiction….

It's the Thailand Twilight Zone effect strange and definitely not true...

[JohninDublin]

10 hours ago, Manu said:

Perhaps cause there is no explanation that all no-experts like us can figure out...perhaps even real experts can either?

For no-experts like us, perhaps it would ne more interesting to compare with a neighbouring country, like Malaysia for example. The diagrams from June to now are very similar for both countries, which have had the arrival of the delta variant at the same time (as all SE Asia)

7th November - 4543 cases in Malaysia / 7593 cases in Thailand

7th November - 35 deaths in Malaysia / 53 deaths in Thailand

Malaysia has roughly half of the population of Thailand. Then those numbers seem to make sense. Just saying...

Actually, you've made a very good point here. It would seem that comparing TH and Malaysia makes good sense on the basis that the two countries profiles with regard to prevention would not be vastly dissimilar. 

They both reached peak infection rates within a fortnight of each other. The weekly trend for TH is is down 10% while it is 11% for Malaysia. The apparent contradiction is the declining death rates which are only 10% for TH, but 19% for Malaysia. However, this is probably due to the higher fully vaxxed rate of 75% in M, compared to 49% in TH.

[JohninDublin]

34 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Hi John. My post wasn’t to agree or disagree that the Thai cases are coming down. I really don’t know if the “real” situation on the ground is improving in Thailand. The test and case numbers just mean nothing to me anymore. 

I guess my main point was to say to ALL, not just you, that caution is needed when you see these daily case numbers going down down down.

I would hope the hospitalisation and death numbers are declining for the reason you identified of increased vaccinations, but that doesn’t mean there will be less cases. I would be surprised if the restrictions in place meant Thailand’s “peak” infections were around 25,000 a day (if memory serves me well).  I believe the number to have been far higher, maybe 50,00-70,000 a day and that number is now down to around 30,000-40,000. Still coming down, but is it at a sufficiently low enough level to make it safe to open up society fully?

Thanks for the reply and clarification. My post was never about when it would be safe to re-open.

But it appears you and I agree on the main thrust of my posts, which are not about the precision of the numbers, but that the figures are almost certainly really falling. 

What I have had problems getting my head around throughout this whole thread is the implication, "We can't trust the TH figures so they cannot possibly be in decline". Really? It is even more difficult to understand, because most who take the POV, are pro-vaxxers. We know the vax is far from 100% effective, but it is certainly reducing the infection rates elsewhere. This raises the question, if the vax is reducing the size of the pool of vulnerable people, how are more rather than less people in TH becoming infected? The only explanation I can come up for this contradiction, is there is a new, and as yet undeclared variant in TH, that has yet to be announced.

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

We hit on that in PM John.

The infection figures don't go down significantly purely due to vaccination as vaccination protects but doesn't prevent contracting or spreading the virus.

Also we see a congruent decline in absolute cases and test numbers, ignoring ATK positives, which (when added) should of course make case numbers increase.

And on top, there's the easing of restrictions that we have seen, especially Bangkok residents starting to travel all over the country, together with Covid tiredness and increasing defiance of the preventative rules.

So is it theoretically possible? Yes.

Do we see it? Yes, but only in the absolute infection number decreasing due to fewer PCR tests. But in the same way you could double the number of tests tomorrow and be shocked because of the double number of absolute infections. We don't see it in the ratio of positives found.

In my opinion the goalposts are constantly moved, making this a clever balancing act to gain something from the high season, while true comparisons are impossible. And you know my opinion as to who and why. Let's hope the spinning plates don't all come crashing down.

Let's get to the point and stop chasing our tails.  Do you have any conclusive proof that because we can't trust the TH gov figures, that they cannot possibly be in decline? How do you as a pro-vaxxer, explain the implication, that even though the pool of people likely to become infected is declining, infections are increasing? Why is it that the reported 7 day trends from TH, are not wildly out of step with the rest of Asia? 

You keep repeating that if TH tested to the same level as the UK, which I've never disputed, the figures might not be that much different. But how does that further your case? TH peaked at 23k cases per day. If (e.g.), TH was using the same testing regime as they are now and they are under-declaring by a factor of 10, compared to the UK then we might conclude that the real figure is 10X the reported figure (230k). But have testing protocols in TH compared to the UK changed that much in the interim? If they haven't, then I think it's fair to say that the real figures for TH if they are under-declaring by 10X  based on the different test criteria both have been using, may be 70K cases yesterday. Using the same standards, that is 160k cases less than the 230k case peak. 

[Bob20]

15 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Let's get to the point and stop chasing our tails.  Do you have any conclusive proof that because we can't trust the TH gov figures, that they cannot possibly be in decline? How do you as a pro-vaxxer, explain the implication, that even though the pool of people likely to become infected is declining, infections are increasing? Why is it that the reported 7 day trends from TH, are not wildly out of step with the rest of Asia? 

You keep repeating that if TH tested to the same level as the UK, which I've never disputed, the figures might not be that much different. But how does that further your case? TH peaked at 23k cases per day. If (e.g.), TH was using the same testing regime as they are now and they are under-declaring by a factor of 10, compared to the UK then we might conclude that the real figure is 10X the reported figure (230k). But have testing protocols in TH compared to the UK changed that much in the interim? If they haven't, then I think it's fair to say that the real figures for TH if they are under-declaring by 10X  based on the different test criteria both have been using, may be 70K cases yesterday. Using the same standards, that is 160k cases less than the 230k case peak. 

John, again, vaccination doesn't bring down the number of infections. It brings down the hospitalisation and death rate. As far as the latest research goes, the vaccinated can catch the virus just the same and their viral load and transmission rate isn't significantly different either.

The number of infections will come down by preventing transmission through masks/distancing/hygiene etc , but not by vaccination.

Now, if TH would do the same number of tests every day and/or at least would count all positive tests of each type and extrapolate to the same sample size, then we would get closer to something that can be compared. 

But I am not at all sure that we can deduce anything from a comparison between two countries with only similar population size, but a totally different situation with many different variables.

[JohninDublin]

3 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

John, again, vaccination doesn't bring down the number of infections. It brings down the hospitalisation and death rate. As far as the latest research goes, the vaccinated can catch the virus just the same and their viral load and transmission rate isn't significantly different either.

The number of infections will come down by preventing transmission through masks/distancing/hygiene etc , but not by vaccination.

Now, if TH would do the same number of tests every day and/or at least would count all positive tests of each type and extrapolate to the same sample size, then we would get closer to something that can be compared. 

But I am not at all sure that we can deduce anything from a comparison between two countries with only similar population size, but a totally different situation with many different variables.

I've already dealt with your theories on testing, and I am not really talking about comparisons with other countries, though this does give some clues. My position is that the infections are falling in TH from all the evidence I've seen.

If you want to keep going on about differences in testing standards, then it must be applied to all the data. We know that TH reported a peak infection of 23k one day. They are currently reporting 7k. You talk about extrapolation. If you want to do that to the 7k figure, then you must also do it with the 23k. So I will ask again, how does that further your claim that cases are not in decline in TH?

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

Thanks for the reply and clarification. My post was never about when it would be safe to re-open.

But it appears you and I agree on the main thrust of my posts, which are not about the precision of the numbers, but that the figures are almost certainly really falling. 

What I have had problems getting my head around throughout this whole thread is the implication, "We can't trust the TH figures so they cannot possibly be in decline". Really? It is even more difficult to understand, because most who take the POV, are pro-vaxxers. We know the vax is far from 100% effective, but it is certainly reducing the infection rates elsewhere. This raises the question, if the vax is reducing the size of the pool of vulnerable people, how are more rather than less people in TH becoming infected? The only explanation I can come up for this contradiction, is there is a new, and as yet undeclared variant in TH, that has yet to be announced.

Well I’m not sure by how much the vaccinations do reduce case numbers? There is some evidence to suggest a patient with Covid who has been vaccinated is carrying a lower “viral load” which may in turn reduce their ability to infect others. I’ve yet to see clear evidence of this? 
 

As we have seen in the U.K., once restrictions are lifted case numbers go right back up to levels seen before vaccination began. I think cases and deaths in the U.K. are now around the same as we would get in a very bad flu season. The problem is winter is just about to begin and so likely cases will push up again to 50,60,80 thousand a day and deaths possibly hitting 300. It’s certainly far more deadly than flu and without the vaccines many more would die. 
 

On the topic of trusting the Thai numbers.
I started my association with Thailand over 25 years ago. I arrived with no preconceived views of how things work there. Very quickly I started to see high levels of corruption. Figures changing on an almost daily basis. One minister saying one number and the following day another minister adjusting them. No apparent independent oversight or audit office for any official numbers, and patently ridiculous numbers that anyone can see for themselves, such as less than 1% unemployment. I think at one point they claimed 0.25% in 2013! Anyone can drive around towns and villages and see plenty of working age men and women simply hanging around. Similarly, look at the “Tourist” arrivals they have claimed since July. Almost all the pictures you see at airports show at least half are Thais and not tourists. Another 25% are just foreign expats and not tourists. So my distrust of Thailand’s data on almost everything is out of first hand knowledge of them manipulating figures to suit their agenda with little in the way of independent oversight or audits. Why would Covid numbers be any different? To me, the numbers could be going up just as likely as they are going down based on “official” numbers. I do think numbers are falling but that is mainly due to restrictions and the logic that follows. I don’t believe they are falling because the Thai government say they are. If they told me the sun rose in the East I’d set my alarm to check! 

[Stonker]

4 hours ago, Soidog said:

They also look at other countries where they are doing high volume randomised testing and imply a better situation

I'd be very interested to know of any countries beyond a few with populations in six figures, that are doing "high volume randomised testing", as I can't think of any.

Anyone know of any?