News Forum - Banking on a Shinawatra revival – Pheu Thai kicks off their 2023 election campaign

November 7, 2021

No surprise, despite some conservative media painting it as a shock political move. The official announcement of Paethongtan Shinawatra’s role at in the Pheu Thai election machine as “chief adviser in participation and innovation” has been spoken about for the past month. The return of a ‘Shinawatra’ – the former fugitive PM’s youngest daughter no less – will re-focus additional attention on the leading opposition party. Whilst it will garner additional support from their loyal party base, in the north east along with agricultural and working communities around the country, the announcement will give the conservative forces a larger target […]

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November 7, 2021

Yes it will be interesting how the little crooks in power now will devise a strategy to attempt to disallow the Pheu Thai party with another Shinawatra involved.

Of course members of the Election Committee must be rubbing their hands together already at the prospect of yet another huge pay day to announce what they are told to. But prior to that it should be interesting what this government and its puppet master will think of next to protect their trough.

November 7, 2021

If an opposition party wins whose to say the military won't do what the Burmese military did and declare the election illegal and have another coup

November 7, 2021

37 minutes ago, MikeW said:

If an opposition party wins whose to say the military won't do what the Burmese military did and declare the election illegal and have another coup

That unfortunately is a possibility. The one advantage that the Thai people have over the Burmese is that the Burmese army, unlike the Thai military, are not a bunch of gutless cowards so hence followed orders.

November 7, 2021

Oh Dear...what a mess!! Those who want to see a real democracy in Thailand, will have to present a united front and not squabble as the junta will seize on it as an example of weakness.

November 7, 2021

Interesting article; if you haven't read through the whole thing, I'd recommend doing so.

Speculation now ain't worth a great deal for an election in either 2022 or 2023 (BTW- it's 2022; you heard it here first), but political junkies are like sharks; if they don't keep speculating, they die.

There is a truism in Political Science circles that regimes (I use the word 'Regime" on purpose as no one could say that the Prayut Regime attained power fairly; see the International Community's Assessment of the last election and recall the Shenanigans of the EC post-election, not to mention a coup) tend to rot and fall apart from within rather than be beaten from outside. It isn't a hard and fast rule, but it is quite common if you look around the globe for the last 50 years or so.

My guess is that the Prayut Regime won't last much beyond 2022, if that. Start with modern history; few regimes have lasted more than 8 years; Prem served that amount of time and then stopped. The Bangkok Elite won't really want one individual person or group in the PM's chair longer than that as they would amass too much independent power (can't have the help thinking above their station, can we?). There are others waiting patiently in the wings and Thai-style power sharing dictates frequent comings and goings to share top positions. No one can really say that they handled Covid well and someone has to take blame.

What's going to happen? Someone quite powerful snuck the No More Than Eight-Year in the PMs Chair Rule into the current constitution; it is illogical to think Prayut or his cronies did that voluntarily. That rule will be used next year by the Judiciary to clear out Prayut. Could another person from PPRP take over? Yes, but I don't think so unless they really, really cheat (and yes, they might). Simply put, they are a tired old bunch; governing is hard and there needs to be constant turn over and replenishment, but that hasn't happened in the political sphere for the last 8 years. It's overdue and voters will see that; there is a reason that "It's Time For A Change" is a powerful political slogan.

I am not sure what will occur in the next year or so; the best guess is that each party will mostly be building their internal machines for the next election season, but with Covid being a 'Wildcard', a serious prediction is a waste of time.

That said, there are some questions...