News Forum - COVID-19 SATURDAY: 88 deaths, provincial data, vaccination update

[Thaiger]

Today, the CCSA reported 9,224 new Covid-19 infections, up 256 since yesterday, and 88 Coronavirus-related deaths, up 24 from yesterday. Since April 1, in the latest wave of the virus in Thailand, a total of 1,874,292 confirmed Covid-19 infections have been reported. In the 24 hour period since the last count, the CCSA has reported 8,305 recoveries, up 442 from yesterday. There are now 100,132 people currently receiving treatment for Covid-19, up 831 from yesterday, including 2,217 in the ICU and 496 on ventilators.   Of the new Covid-19 infections, 126 were found in correctional facilities, 259 were identified by […]

The story COVID-19 SATURDAY: 88 deaths, provincial data, vaccination update as seen on Thaiger News.

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[Jason]

I don't believe it! For the first time on Thaiger we actually have vaccination stats!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing Thailand! After having asked for these stats for months now, we finally have some vaccination stats to see. I'm not surprised by the reluctance to share them! It is a statement about what the Thai Government, has actually done to protect it's people. It's not a good sign....but it can be changed. Give the Thai people a target to reach and they will do so!! 

[Poolie]

Why do you believe them?

[Soidog]

I’m still confused by the numbers and the basic arithmetic involved. While it’s great to see vaccination data, the comments about percentages don’t make sense. They claim “ 42 million have had at least one dose, meaning 58% have had one injection”. The Thai population is approximately 67 million.  (42/67)*100=62.7%. So is it the percentage calculation that’s wrong or the number of first shots? 
 

 

[Bob20]

19 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I’m still confused by the numbers and the basic arithmetic involved. While it’s great to see vaccination data, the comments about percentages don’t make sense. They claim “ 42 million have had at least one dose, meaning 58% have had one injection”. The Thai population is approximately 67 million.  (42/67)*100=62.7%. So is it the percentage calculation that’s wrong or the number of first shots? 
 

Don't worry, someone probably took the government calculator home for the weekend, or is getting new batteries for it as TAT used it

On a more serious note, how they calculate the population isn't consistent. Sometimes they take adults, sometimes over 12's, sometimes all Thais. I think the population is 70m now, so that total number gives you 60%.

But officially, foreigners like Myanmar workers etc, are not counted in the Thai population, yet they are being vaccinated. So, doses given to non-Thai population should be deducted from the total doses given. Then that number can be worked into a percentage and likely comes close to 58%.

It would be so much easier if they were open and transparent about things, but we know why they're not.

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

Why do you believe them?

I believe them because they are corroborated elsewhere. 

Why do you disbelieve them.

[JohninDublin]

54 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I’m still confused by the numbers and the basic arithmetic involved. While it’s great to see vaccination data, the comments about percentages don’t make sense. They claim “ 42 million have had at least one dose, meaning 58% have had one injection”. The Thai population is approximately 67 million.  (42/67)*100=62.7%. So is it the percentage calculation that’s wrong or the number of first shots? 
 

The figure I most use for TH pop is 70 mil. I rely on two sites https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/thailand-population and worldometers.com Both show the figure as just over 70 mill. Thus I make 42 mill, 60%

 

30 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

But officially, foreigners like Myanmar workers etc, are not counted in the Thai population, yet they are being vaccinated. So, doses given to non-Thai population should be deducted from the total doses given. Then that number can be worked into a percentage and likely comes close to 58%.

That's a good point, but in a population of 70 mill, it would take 700K Burmese to account for 1%. Are there that many Burmese in TH? There is also the issue that if they are not illegals, those that were there during the last census, as well as Farangs etc, will have been enumerated. The census is not about how many Thais there are, but how many people are resident there at a specific moment in time.

[Soidog]

Just now, JohninDubin said:

The figure I most use for TH pop is 70 mil. I rely on two sites https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/thailand-population and worldometers.com Both show the figure as just over 70 mill. Thus I make 42 mill, 60%

That's a good point, but in a population of 70 mill, it would take 700K Burmese to account for 1%. Are there that many Burmese in TH? There is also the issue that if they are not illegals, those that were there during the last census, as well as Farangs etc, will have been enumerated. The census is not about how many Thais there are, but how many people are resident there at a specific moment in time.

What Thailand needs is an Office of National Statistics. Maybe they have one?

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

The figure I most use for TH pop is 70 mil. I rely on two sites https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/thailand-population and worldometers.com Both show the figure as just over 70 mill. Thus I make 42 mill, 60%

That's a good point, but in a population of 70 mill, it would take 700K Burmese to account for 1%. Are there that many Burmese in TH? There is also the issue that if they are not illegals, those that were there during the last census, as well as Farangs etc, will have been enumerated. The census is not about how many Thais there are, but how many people are resident there at a specific moment in time.

Yes, they easy make up 2%, probably even more. Majority seasonal workers and illegals that both escape a census.

But really, we can work towards the given figure, but they should tell us how they reached the number!

 

[JohninDublin]

9 minutes ago, Soidog said:

What Thailand needs is an Office of National Statistics. Maybe they have one?

They clearly must have one because they are posting excess mortality stats etc (hahaha).

Seriously though, Statisticians have been around since biblical times, and without someone collating the numbers, it is impossible to run a country.

[Bob20]

2 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

They clearly must have one because they are posting excess mortality stats etc (hahaha).

Seriously though, Statisticians have been around since biblical times, and without someone collating the numbers, it is impossible to run a country.

Ah, okay. So you're saying they don't have one then

[JohninDublin]

17 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Yes, they easy make up 2%, probably even more. Majority seasonal workers and illegals that both escape a census.

But really, we can work towards the given figure, but they should tell us how they reached the number!

I don't know about TH specifically, but most countries work on the basis of 10 yearly census, and then estimate population in the meantime based on past trends including births and deaths. So if for example X has 60 mill in 2015, and has been having 400k births and 200k deaths on average for the past ten years, that's an annual increase of 200k for six years so the population is estimated at currently 61.2 mill. Corrections are then made in the 2025 census.

[Bob20]

4 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I don't know about TH specifically, but most countries work on the basis of 10 yearly census, and then estimate population in the meantime based on past trends including births and deaths. So if for example X has 60 mill in 2015, and has been having 400k births and 200k deaths on average for the past ten years, that's an annual increase of 200k for six years so the population is estimated at currently 61.2 mill. Corrections are then made in the 2025 census.

Yes, true.

But here we have the situation with high numbers of seasonal workers that would not even on a regular day want to be seen by officials. And lots of straight out illegals as well. And not really a well organised address structure as in the west to account for most everyone.

Don't forget that they have only come forward for vaccination on the promise that it won't be held against them if they are here illegally. So quite a number of doses have been spent on people unaccounted for in the "population".

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, JohninDubin said:

They clearly must have one because they are posting excess mortality stats etc (hahaha).

Seriously though, Statisticians have been around since biblical times, and without someone collating the numbers, it is impossible to run a country.

I just wonder if it is a central body responsible for working with various government departments and industries to collect an audited set of national statistics on everything from Tourist numbers, to population, to tonnes of rice produced? If these are industry figures with vested interests to present a particular picture, then it’s hard to put too much trust in it.  I’m not aware of Thailand having such a central government department? 

[Bob20]

10 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I just wonder if it is a central body responsible for working with various government departments and industries to collect an audited set of national statistics on everything from Tourist numbers, to population, to tonnes of rice produced? If these are industry figures with vested interests to present a particular picture, then it’s hard to put too much trust in it.  I’m not aware of Thailand having such a central government department? 

The National Statistical Office of Thailand (NSO), with departmental status, directly under the Office of the PM (no joke).

The central administration oversees 11 smaller administrative units: Local administration is composed of 76 Provincial Statistical Offices.

The NSO has two other administrative bodies: an Administrative Development Group and an Internal Audit Group.

[Soidog]

7 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

The National Statistical Office of Thailand (NSO), with departmental status, directly under the Office of the PM (no joke).

The central administration oversees 11 smaller administrative units: Local administration is composed of 76 Provincial Statistical Offices.

The NSO has two other administrative bodies: an Administrative Development Group and an Internal Audit Group.

Well apart from the lack of political independence (surely they wouldn’t interfere would they), then this does sound like what I was describing? 
 

Thanks

[Griff1315]

1 minute ago, Soidog said:

Well apart from the lack of political independence (surely they wouldn’t interfere would they), then this does sound like what I was describing? 
 

Thanks

When one man has all the power numbers mean nothing and can easily be altered to suit.

 

It is said that power corrupts, but actually it's more true that power attracts the corruptible....

 

[Bob20]

6 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Well apart from the lack of political independence (surely they wouldn’t interfere would they), then this does sound like what I was describing? 
 

Thanks

 

Similar to what I said a few hours ago about TAT

https://thethaiger.com/talk/topic/7421-news-forum-reopening-monday-aot-ready-for-30k-at-suvarnabhumi-airport/?do=findComment&comment=94363

[NeillF]

4 hours ago, Jason said:

I don't believe it! For the first time on Thaiger we actually have vaccination stats!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing Thailand! After having asked for these stats for months now, we finally have some vaccination stats to see. I'm not surprised by the reluctance to share them! It is a statement about what the Thai Government, has actually done to protect it's people. It's not a good sign....but it can be changed. Give the Thai people a target to reach and they will do so!! 

 

4 hours ago, Soidog said:

I’m still confused by the numbers and the basic arithmetic involved. While it’s great to see vaccination data, the comments about percentages don’t make sense. They claim “ 42 million have had at least one dose, meaning 58% have had one injection”. The Thai population is approximately 67 million.  (42/67)*100=62.7%. So is it the percentage calculation that’s wrong or the number of first shots? 
 

I'm happy to address all this because I'm the nerd attempting to database and calculate all this information from what the DDC (which has seemed to be the most consistent source, at least better than the CCSA, TAT, etc.) releases each day.

The reason we don't do vax statistics more often is because the government changes them constantly. I've noted several times in my reporting where certain dates (September 18 off the top of my head) saw impossible statistics like 152,000 people somehow had their vaccines removed, or first being report as 72,000 1st jabs then later revised to 441,000.

I worked late into the night last night to get the most current stats from October 15th to today and then woke to find that the last week's worth of figures had all been changed this morning. The figures and charts I posted were accurate today according to the DDC, but may change again tomorrow!

As for the percentages, that was my best extrapolation, again based on the DDC data. I've seen sources cite between 69 million and 73 million people in Thailand, depending on how you qualify it. I believe the government is including expats and migrant workers as they attempt to vaccinated them all.

I took their figures over the course of a few weeks and calculated them from their declaration that XX,000,000 people were vaccinated and that xx.xx%, then averaged out the numbers that gave me and came up with the number 72,034,400 which seems to be about what the government is calculating its percentages off of. So the percentages of vaccinations I mentioned in today's report is based off of that.

Hope that clarifies it a bit! :)

[Guevara]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

I’m still confused by the numbers and the basic arithmetic involved. While it’s great to see vaccination data, the comments about percentages don’t make sense. They claim “ 42 million have had at least one dose, meaning 58% have had one injection”. The Thai population is approximately 67 million.  (42/67)*100=62.7%. So is it the percentage calculation that’s wrong or the number of first shots? 
 

Whoever produced (manipulated) these figures and percentages, mathematics is/wasn't their strong point. I find it interesting that over 2million have had a booster (3rd jab) whilst others haven't had a whiff of any vaccine. The UK Government have instructed to be pragmatic about administering the boosters to the most vulnerable. Originally they were instructed to have 190 days gap between 2nd jab and the booster. They have now lowered it to 4-5 months.

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, NeillF said:

I'm happy to address all this because I'm the nerd attempting to database and calculate all this information from what the DDC (which has seemed to be the most consistent source, at least better than the CCSA, TAT, etc.) releases each day.

The reason we don't do vax statistics more often is because the government changes them constantly. I've noted several times in my reporting where certain dates (September 18 off the top of my head) saw impossible statistics like 152,000 people somehow had their vaccines removed, or first being report as 72,000 1st jabs then later revised to 441,000.

I worked late into the night last night to get the most current stats from October 15th to today and then woke to find that the last week's worth of figures had all been changed this morning. The figures and charts I posted were accurate today according to the DDC, but may change again tomorrow!

As for the percentages, that was my best extrapolation, again based on the DDC data. I've seen sources cite between 69 million and 73 million people in Thailand, depending on how you qualify it. I believe the government is including expats and migrant workers as they attempt to vaccinated them all.

I took their figures over the course of a few weeks and calculated them from their declaration that XX,000,000 people were vaccinated and that xx.xx%, then averaged out the numbers that gave me and came up with the number 72,034,400 which seems to be about what the government is calculating its percentages off of. So the percentages of vaccinations I mentioned in today's report is based off of that.

Hope that clarifies it a bit! :)

Great explanation. Thanks for taking the time to explain. I don’t envy you trying to keep up with this data. Good luck

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, Guevara said:

They have now lowered it to 4-5 months.

I’ve heard a lot of talk about doing this, but yet to see any change to formal policy. I’m due my booster on the 20th of November and tried to book it early (5 months) on the booster booking system but it won’t let me. Unless this has changed in the past 24 hours? 

[Jason]

Boosters....yes there's a whole other topic. People who are receiving vaccination will need boosters within 6 months to keep up the level of immunity. I believe for AZ the effects last longer than the others although the protection given by AZ isn't as high as Moderna and Pfizer. In any case, the sands are shifting. Sandbox places got first dibs at vaccines, but their effectiveness is at the outer edge now. I know I have to get a booster before coming to Thailand and there will be plenty of others in and outside of Thailand, who will need to do the same.

[ozvenision]

23 hours ago, Jason said:

I don't believe it! For the first time on Thaiger we actually have vaccination stats!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing Thailand! After having asked for these stats for months now, we finally have some vaccination stats to see. I'm not surprised by the reluctance to share them! It is a statement about what the Thai Government, has actually done to protect it's people. It's not a good sign....but it can be changed. Give the Thai people a target to reach and they will do so!! 

The numbers DONT include ATK tests AND results, only govt hospital tests.. My wife works for BMA and confirms this.. beads in the abacus missing to make look good  

[palooka]

19 hours ago, Guevara said:

Whoever produced (manipulated) these figures and percentages, mathematics is/wasn't their strong point. I find it interesting that over 2million have had a booster (3rd jab) whilst others haven't had a whiff of any vaccine. The UK Government have instructed to be pragmatic about administering the boosters to the most vulnerable. Originally they were instructed to have 190 days gap between 2nd jab and the booster. They have now lowered it to 4-5 months.

A lot of those 2 million booster were for hospital staff and other frontline  workers who were given the useless Sinovac for their first and in some cases second jab.