Could we witness the formation of a United Ireland?

[BigHewer]

9 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

BH have you kept in touch with folk in Kerry. If so is the attitude still the same as you mentioned or has it softened?

Well let’s see. The older generation (grandfather and great-grandparents’ numerous siblings all passed on in the 90s and 2000s. I maintain contact with a few in Cork, Kenmare down in Kerry and one cousin in Dublin. 

I would say the younger generation are more Euro-centric and reunification would have to be framed around integration into the EU.  But I (and they) have no connection to the north and that’s where the political will would have to come from.

I’m not sure if the “waving at certain cars” policy of the 80s and 90s still persists in Kenmare, but I’ll ask

[JohninDublin]

11 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

BH have you kept in touch with folk in Kerry. If so is the attitude still the same as you mentioned or has it softened?

FWIW, I think the reunification issue is not too paramount in most peoples minds in the Republic. I think the overwhelming view is that it will happen when it happens and they won't lose any sleep over it in the meantime. 

For anybody unaware, for reunification to take place, it needs simultaneous referenda on both sides of the border, with each side having a majority in favour.

[mickkotlarski]

1 minute ago, JohninDubin said:

There will always be crackpots, especially as far as religion is concerned. But to what end will they fight? Independence? How will they expect to get recognition when they have fought against a democratic decision and maintain their new status quo, when to do so, they must oppress the substantial Catholic minority. I am sure the UK will be bound by the vote. In effect, even if they were to win a violent conflict, it would just be a victory on the road to nowhere. Effectively an independent Ulster with these origins would just become a Fascist state.

That is exactly the logic I'm thinking of. Would there not be enough rational folk within the Protestant ranks that would see the futility against open conflict especially as much of the world would not support it. I could not see either Britain nor the EU wanting this. Yet alone the bulk of the Irish population be they Catholic or Protestant.

As for the English themselves, should the attitude be the same as let the people of that nation decide their own fate which it definitely seems to be with my homeland down under then the only drama remains Ulster.

But as you said John it would be seen as a fascist state. I find this both difficult to grasp and foolish should they follow this path.   

[mickkotlarski]

6 minutes ago, BigHewer said:

Well let’s see. The older generation (grandfather and great-grandparents’ numerous siblings all passed on in the 90s and 2000s. I maintain contact with a few in Cork, Kenmare down in Kerry and one cousin in Dublin. 

I would say the younger generation are more Euro-centric and reunification would have to be framed around integration into the EU.  But I (and they) have no connection to the north and that’s where the political will would have to come from.

I’m not sure if the “waving at certain cars” policy of the 80s and 90s still persists in Kenmare, but I’ll ask

Thank you BH. I would imagine that things may have softened since the 1980's towards the black and tan but be interesting to know anyway. Time often heals. 

[mickkotlarski]

8 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

FWIW, I think the reunification issue is not too paramount in most peoples minds in the Republic. I think the overwhelming view is that it will happen when it happens and they won't lose any sleep over it in the meantime. 

For anybody unaware, for reunification to take place, it needs simultaneous referenda on both sides of the border, with each side having a majority in favour.

Exactly. In short if neither want it then it won't happen. But still interested as the aggression seems to be dissipating.

[yselmike]

2 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

FWIW, I think the reunification issue is not too paramount in most peoples minds in the Republic. I think the overwhelming view is that it will happen when it happens and they won't lose any sleep over it in the meantime. 

For anybody unaware, for reunification to take place, it needs simultaneous referenda on both sides of the border, with each side having a majority in favour.

The change in the demographics are expected to change in NI over the coming years.The Catholics are going to be in the majority within a decade.Not sure that would mean a yes vote for reunification,I wouldn't want the hard core protestants in my country.I would vote to build a wall to keep them behind it.

[JohninDublin]

3 minutes ago, BigHewer said:

I would say the younger generation are more Euro-centric and reunification would have to be framed around integration into the EU.  But I (and they) have no connection to the north and that’s where the political will would have to come from.

EU Integration will not be a prob, as NI effectively remains as part of the EU.

And you are right, it does have to start with the North. The thing that concerns me most is that if there is a small majority not to unite, it will be seen as unfinished business by the Nationalists and they will want regular referendums until they get the result they want. I am not opposed to the democratic decision, but I think that if there are regular referenda, the Loyalist gunmen will see that it's only a matter of time before they will lose, and do whatever it takes to stop the voting.

If thee is to be a vote, I'd rather that there is nor repeat vote for say, 5 years.

[JohninDublin]

11 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

That is exactly the logic I'm thinking of. Would there not be enough rational folk within the Protestant ranks that would see the futility against open conflict especially as much of the world would not support it. I could not see either Britain nor the EU wanting this. Yet alone the bulk of the Irish population be they Catholic or Protestant.

As for the English themselves, should the attitude be the same as let the people of that nation decide their own fate which it definitely seems to be with my homeland down under then the only drama remains Ulster.

But as you said John it would be seen as a fascist state. I find this both difficult to grasp and foolish should they follow this path.   

I really don't see that the bulk of Protestants would be too supportive of the gunmen. Especially as all the gunmen could achieve to stop unification, is independence into a hostile world.

 

[RobMuir]

3 hours ago, gummy said:

Assuming you get out unscathed you may well hear some strong arguments to prove my point that it will never be united due to religious bigotry.

That is sad that in this day and age a country is divided by some imaginary invisible big bloke in the sky.

Someone should tell them.

Pretty sure Mary was no virgin either.

Noah's Ark? Nah.

The Easter Bunny? Santa Claus?

The Irish I know like fighting.

[mickkotlarski]

7 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I really don't see that the bulk of Protestants would be too supportive of the gunmen. Especially as all the gunmen could achieve to stop unification, is independence into a hostile world.

Yet another reason I lean towards not so much if Ireland will unite but when will it unite. I could think of several dozen instances where peoples have been in die hard bull headed violent conflict yet th enew contemporary generation have an attitude of let the hatred die with the end of conflict. 

[BigHewer]

22 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

EU Integration will not be a prob, as NI effectively remains as part of the EU.

And you are right, it does have to start with the North. The thing that concerns me most is that if there is a small majority not to unite, it will be seen as unfinished business by the Nationalists and they will want regular referendums until they get the result they want. I am not opposed to the democratic decision, but I think that if there are regular referenda, the Loyalist gunmen will see that it's only a matter of time before they will lose, and do whatever it takes to stop the voting.

If thee is to be a vote, I'd rather that there is nor repeat vote for say, 5 years.

Understood John and we’re on the same page, but I’ve no idea what the minority view will be and what the reaction will be if the reunification train  actually gains momentum. I would think there are just too many naysayers and too many vocal stakeholders invested in maintaining the status quo (for better or worse). I hope otherwise, but I’m still in the “not in my lifetime” camp.

[JohninDublin]

3 hours ago, BigHewer said:

Understood John and we’re on the same page, but I’ve no idea what the minority view will be and what the reaction will be if the reunification train  actually gains momentum. I would think there are just too many naysayers and too many vocal stakeholders invested in maintaining the status quo (for better or worse). I hope otherwise, but I’m still in the “not in my lifetime” camp.

I'd ask you the same question as the others who have said "Not in my lifetime": How old are you, Personally, I've predicted 15 years, but I'd be surprised if it takes even that long.

And for those people who want invoke the bigots and men of violence, does it not occur to them that thos prob will be decided by ballots, not bullets.

[BigHewer]

19 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

I'd ask you the same question as the others who have said "Not in my lifetime": How old are you, Personally, I've predicted 15 years, but I'd be surprised if it takes even that long.

And for those people who want invoke the bigots and men of violence, does it not occur to them that thos prob will be decided by ballots, not bullets.

Point taken John and although I’m confident of being around in 15 years, I’m not sold on the idea of unification. But I hope I’m wrong.

This is a nice debate, disagreeing with someone I really want to believe but just can’t. One of my fellow Toon supporters I converse with is convinced we will turn over Chelsea on Saturday. How wonderful that would be! But I just can’t see it happening.

[gummy]

Just now, BigHewer said:

One of my fellow Toon supporters I converse with is convinced we will turn over Chelsea on Saturday. How wonderful that would be! But I just can’t see it happening.

You think you have problems and living in hope, I'm a Norwich supporter  And them winning is as remote  I suspect as Ireland being one nation again.

[BigHewer]

2 minutes ago, gummy said:

You think you have problems and living in hope, I'm a Norwich supporter  And them winning is as remote  I suspect as Ireland being one nation again.

I wonder if Ladbroke’s or Paddy Power have odds on Ireland unification… would be interesting to find a bookmaker’s sporting equivalent.

Ireland unification by 2036 vs. Norwich staying up this season?

[BigHewer]

Ok folks, I’ve had a look:

Irish Unification to pass before 2030: 7/2

Norwich to stay up: 9/2

Bad news @gummy

 

[gummy]

9 minutes ago, BigHewer said:

I wonder if Ladbroke’s or Paddy Power have odds on Ireland unification… would be interesting to find a bookmaker’s sporting equivalent.

Ireland unification by 2036 vs. Norwich staying up this season?

My money would go on the former,  In this article further down it puts the odds of  reunification vote before 2024 as +200, no odds though for actual reunification

https://www.gamblingsites.com/blog/odds-analysis-betting-irish-reunification-will-there-be-united-ireland/

But according to this Ladbrokes are quoting 2/1 which must be worth a punt

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/06/17/news/bookmakers-slash-the-odds-on-a-united-ireland-2357722/

 

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our replies passed in cyberspace, go for ladbrokes2/1

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, gummy said:

My money would go on the former,  In this article further down it puts the odds of  reunification vote before 2024 as +200, no odds though for actual reunification

https://www.gamblingsites.com/blog/odds-analysis-betting-irish-reunification-will-there-be-united-ireland/

But according to this Ladbrokes are quoting 2/1 which must be worth a punt

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/06/17/news/bookmakers-slash-the-odds-on-a-united-ireland-2357722/

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our replies passed in cyberspace, go for ladbrokes2/1

I found the Betfair odds interesting. "Will there be a vote on Irish reunification passed before 2024" 2/1

To me, the real issue is when there may be a referendum. "The Good Friday Agreement states that "the Secretary of State" should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

Most of the newspaper polls are showing a 50/50 split. I have seen polls for both sides of the case showing 53/47. So for me, the real question is what will it take to persuade the SoS to hold a poll and when? As gfar as Betfair is concerned, I wouldn't even take 2/1 that there will be a referendum in that time.

I can't see Bojo allowing a referendum for fear that it will be his legacy that he was at the helm when the UK broke up and this was the effects of his ambition to be PM. But I think that within the next 15 years, the UK will be just England and Wales.

[BigHewer]

11 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

I can't see Bojo allowing a referendum for fear that it will be his legacy that he was at the helm when the UK broke up and this was the effects of his ambition to be PM. But I think that within the next 15 years, the UK will be just England and Wales.

I think you’re right. It will take another election cycle and then if there is a discernible difference in party platforms that is validated in the election, I think we might see some progress.

Ladbroke’s don’t give money away for the fun of it, so the probability must be much higher than I’ve been thinking.

[NorfolkandChance]

Meanwhile the walls are still up, dividing the 2 communities in Belfast. Never happen.

[mickkotlarski]

3 minutes ago, NorfolkandChance said:

Meanwhile the walls are still up, dividing the 2 communities in Belfast. Never happen.

So are these walls between die hards enough to keep the 2 nations separate?

 

[gummy]

2 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

So are these walls between die hards enough to keep the 2 nations separate?

Suspect it will require a further generation for common sense to prevail  putting an end finally to religious and nationalistic bigotry.

[NorfolkandChance]

15 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

So are these walls between die hards enough to keep the 2 nations separate?

 

10 minutes ago, gummy said:

Suspect it will require a further generation for common sense to prevail  putting an end finally to religious and nationalistic bigotry.

Rangers and Celtic will be bosom pals then.

[gummy]

1 minute ago, NorfolkandChance said:

Rangers and Celtic will be bosom pals then.

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

[NorfolkandChance]

8 minutes ago, gummy said:

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

A bit like Norwich and Ipswich.