Could we witness the formation of a United Ireland?

[mickkotlarski]

With Germany and Vietnam unifying and the two Korea's reopening communication. A question to be asked is if the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland could unite to become one nation. Could this lead to membership in the EU or would an independent Island nation follow the same policies as Switzerland, Iceland and Norway.

[Poolie]

No.

Not in our lifetime.

[Faraday]

As above.

[gummy]

An interesting topic by while religious bigotry exists as it does in Ireland it will never be unified. 

[mickkotlarski]

  On 10/27/2021 at 5:49 AM, Faraday said:

As above.

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Faraday what do you see as the primary reason? Is it religion,politics or historical bad blood?

[mickkotlarski]

  On 10/27/2021 at 5:50 AM, gummy said:

An interesting topic by while religious bigotry exists as it does in Ireland it will never be unified. 

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But is it purely religious? Nearly every nation in South East Asia or for that matter world wide has several religions residing together yet these are 2 Christian faiths on the same island in a democratic nation Gummy.

[Rookiescot]

As the fallout of Brexit continues there is growing support for unification from within both religious communities.

The only ones still dead set against it are the blood and soil Ulster Unionists.

In 2013 support for unification stood at around 17% according to polls.

Today it is over 40%.

However. It should not be underestimated the problems a united Ireland could bring. There is a strong chance of the troubles restarting should it happen.

[Chaimai]

So, even now 60% don't want want reunification.

I am slightly surprised by that.

[mickkotlarski]

  On 10/27/2021 at 8:48 AM, Chaimai said:

So, even now 60% don't want want reunification.

I am slightly surprised by that.

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Hence why I opened this topic. Ireland's history has seem atrocities, famine and prolonged military conflict yet so did Vietnam (although Communism can force unity), but still wonder why the opposition to one nation forming.

[gummy]

  On 10/27/2021 at 7:46 AM, mickkotlarski said:

But is it purely religious? Nearly every nation in South East Asia or for that matter world wide has several religions residing together yet these are 2 Christian faiths on the same island in a democratic nation Gummy.

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Well tell you what. If you think it is that simple then go to Shankill Road and have a discussion as to wether protestants and Catholics are part of the same Christian religion. Assuming you get out unscathed you may well hear some strong arguments to prove my point that it will never be united due to religious bigotry.

[mickkotlarski]

  On 10/27/2021 at 10:29 AM, gummy said:

Well tell you what. If you think it is that simple then go to Shankill Road and have a discussion as to wether protestants and Catholics are part of the same Christian religion. Assuming you get out unscathed you may well hear some strong arguments to prove my point that it will never be united due to religious bigotry.

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Wooow. Still that intense?

[anarchofarmer]

Not going to happen! And religious bigotry has very little to do with it - that's just a Brit oversimplification of a problem they caused over hundreds of years and, as  with all their ex-colonies, are incapable of understanding and have no will to do so! The nearest it ever came was with both parts of Ireland being in the EU, but even then was far far away! The people who live on the shankill and woodvale are not any different from those on the Falls or bogside, but the heritages are worlds apart! And before your "experts" start castigating me I've drunk with both IRA commanders and UVF commanders!

[mickkotlarski]

  On 10/27/2021 at 10:50 AM, anarchofarmer said:

Not going to happen! And religious bigotry has very little to do with it - that's just a Brit oversimplification of a problem they caused over hundreds of years and, as  with all their ex-colonies, are incapable of understanding and have no will to do so! The nearest it ever came was with both parts of Ireland being in the EU, but even then was far far away! The people who live on the shankill and woodvale are not any different from those on the Falls or bogside, but the heritages are worlds apart! And before your "experts" start castigating me I've drunk with both IRA commanders and UVF commanders!

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In terms of heritage how different are they? Could we really put it down to tribalism or clan rivalry? I imagine that these are districts in Belfast and/or it's surrounds.

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 5:19 AM, Poolie said:

No.

Not in our lifetime.

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Just curious: How old are you and @Faraday? Reason I ask is that I think it will happen within the next 15 years. For the best part of the last two years, opinion polls in Ulster have been showing support for re-unification at about 49-51%

A lot of this has to do with the DUP's stance on the EU. Ulster voted 56/44% to remain. In spite of this, the DUP decided to support the Tories who were predominantly a leave party. As a result, the Alliance party, a pro-remain party who take the LibDem whip in Westminster, doubled their vote. In addition, the DUP lost 50% of it's funding which was mainly from businesses who did not want to see Ulster out of the EU.

During the meantime, we have Bojo, who couldn't organise a screw-up in a brothel full of blind nymphomaniacs, doing his best to provoke the EU in order to deflect from his own shambolic leadership. Twice he has complained about the part of the agreement with the EU regarding Ulster that he signed up to. It appears that his reasons are that he did not foresee some of the consequences of his signing. 

Such leadership? What else might we have expected from a man who is incapable of linear thinking?

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 8:11 AM, Rookiescot said:

As the fallout of Brexit continues there is growing support for unification from within both religious communities.

The only ones still dead set against it are the blood and soil Ulster Unionists.

In 2013 support for unification stood at around 17% according to polls.

Today it is over 40%.

However. It should not be underestimated the problems a united Ireland could bring. There is a strong chance of the troubles restarting should it happen.

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WADR: I'd suggest those quoting figures need to google "ulster border polls" and it can be seen that the support is very evenly split, with some polls saying "yes" and others saying "no".

I am not sure how seriously we would need to concern ourselves about "the troubles" restarting. The vote would be on remaining or leaving the UK, and if it was to "leave", I believe the UK would honour the vote. In those circumstances, the are effectively expelled from the UK and lose the £10 BN subvention they receive from the UK. Those who were not prepared to be taken into a United Ireland would effectively have to fight a war of independence on an island where they are out numbered 6-1 by Catholics. 

And that's before you consider that there will be plenty of Protestants that don't want to see a return to the troubles. But let's presume for a minute that the actually fight a war and win it. What's the next move? How do they support themselves without that £10Bn subsidy. There are 26k civil servants who will lose their jobs unless they are subsumed into the Dublin bureaucracy. Then there is the Police. Including support staff, there are nearly 9k employed in this sector. They are more likely to be Unionists, but who is going to pay their wages? They face the same prob as the CS. Then there is the problem of them getting international recognition. 

Yes there will be a few crazies, but even if they win, the country will suffer such a collapse in living standards, that they will not be thanked for it by their fellow protestants. 

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 8:48 AM, Chaimai said:

So, even now 60% don't want want reunification.

I am slightly surprised by that.

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You are right to be surprised, polls have been showing it's near to 50/50 for the past couple of years now.

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 10:29 AM, gummy said:

Well tell you what. If you think it is that simple then go to Shankill Road and have a discussion as to wether protestants and Catholics are part of the same Christian religion. Assuming you get out unscathed you may well hear some strong arguments to prove my point that it will never be united due to religious bigotry.

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Fortunately, the vote is not limited to a few bigots on the Shankill Rd.

Of course one of the causes of such bigotry was the fear that "Catholics will murder us in our beds". This did happen, but it was mainly confined to the period between Cromwell and King Billy. In the 100 years since separation, Protestants have had their own churches south of the border, and remained pretty much unmolested on grounds of faith. Fewer protestants believe that claim nowadays.

But there is also the issue of the EU. A substantial minority of Protestants are in favour of EU membership and are prepared to live in a United Ireland for that reason. That's what the polls are showing, and it can be seen, that the anti-EU stance of the DUP is a vote loser for them.

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 11:16 AM, mickkotlarski said:

In terms of heritage how different are they? Could we really put it down to tribalism or clan rivalry? I imagine that these are districts in Belfast and/or it's surrounds.

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The Bogside is in Derry.

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 5:50 AM, gummy said:

An interesting topic by while religious bigotry exists as it does in Ireland it will never be unified. 

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Religious bigotry is on the wane in Ulster. People are more worried about their economic futures, with plenty of Protestants, though not a majority, favouring remaining in the EU.

[gummy]

  On 10/27/2021 at 12:32 PM, JohninDubin said:

Religious bigotry is on the wane in Ulster. People are more worried about their economic futures, with plenty of Protestants, though not a majority, favouring remaining in the EU.

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It maybe on the wane. I said it still exists and whilst it does they will never be unified

[mickkotlarski]

  On 10/27/2021 at 12:35 PM, gummy said:

It maybe on the wane. I said it still exists and whilst it does they will never be unified

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But enough to maintain such division is a strong statement. Maybe ignorance on my part however is the animosity so great that they would turn to violent conflict? If they are living in Belfast and Derry and not in open hostilities now would they really attack each other if the place became an Island nation?

[BigHewer]

I have loads of cousins in Ireland from my mother’s side, mostly down in Kerry and a few that have moved to Dublin. I also spent quite a bit of time in Ireland in my teens. I would say that reunification isn’t talked about Kerry way, and if it does come up, it’s more of a “roll the eyes” kind of reaction. 

When I walked the country roads back then with my cousins, great aunts and uncles, the ‘done thing’ was to wave a greeting at every car as it passed, except for the cars that had black and tan license plates. “No, don’t wave at them, they’re separate”. No animosity or bad words, just an acceptance of the status quo and no wish to change anything.

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 12:35 PM, gummy said:

It maybe on the wane. I said it still exists and whilst it does they will never be unified

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I can assure that there are sufficient Protestants who are more concerned about the opportunities that EU membership will give them, than whether they live in a country with a Catholic majority. That can be seen from the number of businesses who stopped contributing to the DUP in the last election. An election tomorrow would be a close run race. 

The religious demographics of Ulster is 48/45 in favour of Protestants with 7% nil or other religions. So Protestants no longer have the built in majority they used to enjoy and are now a large, but nonetheless, minority constituency. If only 4% of them decide that they would be better off in a United Ireland, then it's "a done deal". Quite apart from the EU, the social welfare system in the Republic is far superior to that of the UK. I find that many people, when push comes to shove, are inclined to vote with their pockets.

[mickkotlarski]

  On 10/27/2021 at 1:00 PM, BigHewer said:

I have loads of cousins in Ireland from my mother’s side, mostly down in Kerry and a few that have moved to Dublin. I also spent quite a bit of time in Ireland in my teens. I would say that reunification isn’t talked about Kerry way, and if it does come up, it’s more of a “roll the eyes” kind of reaction. 

When I walked the country roads back then with my cousins, great aunts and uncles, the ‘done thing’ was to wave a greeting at every car as it passed, except for the cars that had black and tan license plates. “No, don’t wave at them, they’re separate”. No animosity or bad words, just an acceptance of the status quo and no wish to change anything.

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BH have you kept in touch with folk in Kerry. If so is the attitude still the same as you mentioned or has it softened?

[JohninDublin]

  On 10/27/2021 at 12:51 PM, mickkotlarski said:

But enough to maintain such division is a strong statement. Maybe ignorance on my part however is the animosity so great that they would turn to violent conflict? If they are living in Belfast and Derry and not in open hostilities now would they really attack each other if the place became an Island nation?

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There will always be crackpots, especially as far as religion is concerned. But to what end will they fight? Independence? How will they expect to get recognition when they have fought against a democratic decision and maintain their new status quo, when to do so, they must oppress the substantial Catholic minority. I am sure the UK will be bound by the vote. In effect, even if they were to win a violent conflict, it would just be a victory on the road to nowhere. Effectively an independent Ulster with these origins would just become a Fascist state.