News Forum - Foreign airlines give up 80% of their slots at Thailand’s airports amid uncertainty of next 5 months

[AussieBob]

When will we be visiting Thailand again?  When there are:  No PCR tests after arriving, No quarantine, No curfews, No closed restaurants, No alcohol restrictions, No COE application process (Paperwork or On-line), No Mandatory MorChana tracking App,  No restrictions on movements inside Thailand, etc etc etc. Happy to require Vaccination Certificate, and Travel/Medical Insurance (including Covid), but not all the other stuff.  So I guess than means mid/late 2022?   

I just cannot see the Thai Govt backing down and dropping all their new Tourist rules and regulations - despite the fact that the Phuket Sandbox has not delivered anywhere near the number of 'tourists' that TAT claimed it would. If I recall TAT claimed 130K in the first 3 months, and over 1 million by end December.  The PM has pushed for the re-opening and has got what he wanted - but the numbers of tourists will just not return to Thailand while there are easier cheaper and less risky options. Those airline slots are not going to be taken back up by anyone else, and unless demand jumps a lot suddenly, then they will remain closed. 

     

[BBY]

Is it really any wonder.
 

With Thailand being labelled as the most complicated country to enter.
 

During this pandemic airlines have enough to do checking the Pre flight PCR credentials of their passengers without the added requirements Thailand are imposing such as COE or The Thailand Pass. Ultimately, if the airline brings a passenger that they should not have brought it’s their responsibility and in some cases will even be fined for doing so. Either way it’s a really big headache for them. 
 

looks like a show of solidarity from the airlines to me. Of course it’s just my opinion…..
 

 

[yselmike]

1 hour ago, longwood50 said:

Honestly, what are the odds that a foreigner who has been fully inoculated has Covid.  The vaccines such as Pfizer are reportedly 96% effective in preventing contracting Covid.  So you have only 4% of the tourists who can even contract the disease.  Then what are the odds that of that 4% that they happen to contract Covid just before flying to Thailand.  

Next to Zero.  That 4% who potentially could catch Covid is far far far more likely to contact Covid from an unvaccinated Thai than the Thai from the foreigner. 

If you want tourists you make it easy and convenient to travel to your country.  If you don't want them you put up hoops for them to jump through.  One thing is for sure, if their intent is to try and encourage families traveling rather than single men, the burden of the multiple tests, and insurance will be such a high percentage of the cost of the vacation that they will be the one group who will not come. 

What are the odds? How much do they shorten when you have had your shots 10 months ago? I had my shots end of April end of may,I arrive end of February do I have any immunity?

[Dancbmac]

9 minutes ago, yselmike said:

What are the odds? How much do they shorten when you have had your shots 10 months ago? I had my shots end of April end of may,I arrive end of February do I have any immunity?

Probably not !  By February will probably require a 3rd booster shot.

[KaptainRob]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

So what percentage of the available slots are booked then?

If it's not an impertinent question?

Around 20%.  Most will be preferred time slots which cost big $$$'s to acquire and major airlines such as SIA, Emirates, Etihad, Malaysian, Qantas have to ensure availability to suit their network scheduling.  SIA has even been running ghost flights into some major airports to 'hold' their preferred slot.  LHR being one.

Considering the costs involved, one can easily understand why 80% of slots have been forfeited ... it's not just this end at BKK, but all other destinations within a network.  And BKK being a hub for International carriers it shows the desperate lack of liquidity and shaky future most airlines face.

[Soidog]

19 minutes ago, yselmike said:

What are the odds? How much do they shorten when you have had your shots 10 months ago? I had my shots end of April end of may,I arrive end of February do I have any immunity?

Some, but you should get a booster shot in the next few months. Covid vaccination will become like the flu shot. It may even become a part of the same shot in years to come. 
 

When this pandemic really started going back in late March 2020, I read an interesting article from some historian. He said this pandemic like many others will take 3-5 years before life will return to a normality people recall. We are nearly 2 years in to this pandemic and I think his prediction will be about right. 

[Poolie]

5 minutes ago, KaptainRob said:

Around 20%.  Most will be preferred time slots which cost big $$$'s to acquire and major airlines such as SIA, Emirates, Etihad, Malaysian, Qantas have to ensure availability to suit their network scheduling.  SIA has even been running ghost flights into some major airports to 'hold' their preferred slot.  LHR being one.

Considering the costs involved, one can easily understand why 80% of slots have been forfeited ... it's not just this end at BKK, but all other destinations within a network.  And BKK being a hub for International carriers it shows the desperate lack of liquidity and shaky future most airlines face.

Understood, and appreciated.

I was more interested in how many of the 'redundant' slots had been snapped up by others.

[Stardust]

3 hours ago, Poolie said:

Because they'll come at different times that they used to? New flight, new time. Note that there's no mention of new bookings. Typical press trick.

It seams you not know what a slot at airports is.

[Stardust]

40 minutes ago, Poolie said:

Understood, and appreciated.

I was more interested in how many of the 'redundant' slots had been snapped up by others.

Zero but it seams you does not understand that because you not understand what a slot is and what it means foreign carriers canceled 80% of their slots til end of March. Domestic slots are also canceled.

[Stardust]

3 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Zero but it seams you does not understand that because you not understand what a slot is and what it means foreign carriers canceled 80% of their slots til end of March. Domestic slots are also canceled.

Ok for this also is the need to know that 100% - 80% = 20%

[TelD]

There are more than 6 international airports - what about Krabi?

[Changnam43]

I think the airlines just took a look at all the red tape, expense and BS involved in gaining admission to Thailand and decided it was not worth putting their money behind Thailand's 'opening up'.

[LoongFred]

18 hours ago, longwood50 said:

Honestly, what are the odds that a foreigner who has been fully inoculated has Covid.  The vaccines such as Pfizer are reportedly 96% effective in preventing contracting Covid.  So you have only 4% of the tourists who can even contract the disease.  Then what are the odds that of that 4% that they happen to contract Covid just before flying to Thailand.  

Next to Zero.  That 4% who potentially could catch Covid is far far far more likely to contact Covid from an unvaccinated Thai than the Thai from the foreigner. 

If you want tourists you make it easy and convenient to travel to your country.  If you don't want them you put up hoops for them to jump through.  One thing is for sure, if their intent is to try and encourage families traveling rather than single men, the burden of the multiple tests, and insurance will be such a high percentage of the cost of the vacation that they will be the one group who will not come. 

Are you suggesting a family plan,where up to 6 get the same price? Works for me. 

[Changnam43]

Meanwhile in today's news the USA opens to tourists who are vaccinated or provide a negative covid test.

That's it.  No hotel and insurance scams.

[Stonker]

17 hours ago, KaptainRob said:

Around 20%.  Most will be preferred time slots which cost big $$$'s to acquire and major airlines such as SIA, Emirates, Etihad, Malaysian, Qantas have to ensure availability to suit their network scheduling.  SIA has even been running ghost flights into some major airports to 'hold' their preferred slot.  LHR being one.

Considering the costs involved, one can easily understand why 80% of slots have been forfeited ... it's not just this end at BKK, but all other destinations within a network.  And BKK being a hub for International carriers it shows the desperate lack of liquidity and shaky future most airlines face.

Exactly.

Why on earth would any airline that's strapped for cash, as all now are, continue to pay big bucks for something they don't need?

A quick Google, and this is reflected across ASEAN and the entire region, including Aus and NZ, and it's been the case for over a year.

The only 'news' is that Thai PBS has had another 'no news' day.

 

[Fester]

15 hours ago, Jamey27 said:

That’s more of a regional airport like the one in Pattaya UtaPao

 

International mate. International. Well sometimes. 

 

[Fester]

7 hours ago, Jamey27 said:

It’s international in name only. It’s a regional airport lol 

Before C19 there were international flights and they will resume. lol.

[Cathat]

A lot of european airlines we're finding it difficult to make money on the bangkok run prior to the crisis.

The yield has been very thin for years.

The landing and handling  fees charged from the mid 90's by don muang were pretty high and went to extortionate with the move to swampy.

Heaps of negotiations by major carriers had been going on for years with the airports authority thailand to reduce fees with zero success.

Many of the world's long range wide body aircraft have been decommissioned never to fly agin.

far fewer flights with smaller narrow body aircraft will be the norm when services recomence.

It is likely that buissness travel will not return to anything like pre crisis levels again.

The amount of buissness class tickets sold on a long haul flight is extremely important.

Long haul economy class only flying has a very long history of failure even in good times.

The future for long haul mass tourism is looking very bleak at this point.

Even the deep pocketed middle eastern carriers have been sending there wide body's back to the leasor's early.

10 years minimum for air traffic levels to return to 2019 levels on long haul routes is the figure many international airlines that fly to thailand are working towards.

 

 

 

 

 

[yselmike]

2 hours ago, Cathat said:

A lot of european airlines we're finding it difficult to make money on the bangkok run prior to the crisis.

The yield has been very thin for years.

The landing and handling  fees charged from the mid 90's by don muang were pretty high and went to extortionate with the move to swampy.

Heaps of negotiations by major carriers had been going on for years with the airports authority thailand to reduce fees with zero success.

Many of the world's long range wide body aircraft have been decommissioned never to fly agin.

far fewer flights with smaller narrow body aircraft will be the norm when services recomence.

It is likely that buissness travel will not return to anything like pre crisis levels again.

The amount of buissness class tickets sold on a long haul flight is extremely important.

Long haul economy class only flying has a very long history of failure even in good times.

The future for long haul mass tourism is looking very bleak at this point.

Even the deep pocketed middle eastern carriers have been sending there wide body's back to the leasor's early.

10 years minimum for air traffic levels to return to 2019 levels on long haul routes is the figure many international airlines that fly to thailand are working towards.

The airports such as Schiphol and Heathrow are saying 2026 to return to pre 2019 levels.

[Cathat]

On 10/25/2021 at 8:23 AM, Bob20 said:

As @KaptainRob said, most are missing the point.

Slots are sold (sometimes preferential or by tender) because there are a limited number of planes that can land at an airport (operating hours, noise- & airpollution, passenger capacity etc.)

The contracts have slowly expired over the Covid period. Airlines will still pay the landing fees and charges, but there is now no point to enter into expensive guaranteed reservations for slots while airports are nowhere close to their maximum capacity. 

The buissness of slots is pretty complicated.

An airline does not own the slot as such,it's a grandfather rights type of thing.

Say you have a slot at a major airport at a good time of day,you only retain it by using it.if you do not utslise it regularly and punctually you will lose it.

At the start of the crisis airlines we're hiring light twin engine aircraft to fly into London Heathrow and sit on the stand at the slot time then depart. the game was quickly stopped given the unprecedented circumstances and the potential for negative publicity due to environmental concerns.

Airlines do sell slots to competitors but it is rare and is normally done when the carrier is going bangkrupt,it's generally a last role of the dice,if a carrier fails and has valuable slots the liquidators will often get good money for them.the whole thing is normally done very quickly so the new carrier retains the right to use the slot.

Fair value of such rights is a topic of much debate.

It's more the right to operate into the airport at that time then anything else.

In normal times I think the utilisation rate is normally about 95 percent at major airports but that figure varies qui a bit with location.

 

[Cathat]

11 minutes ago, yselmike said:

The airports such as Schiphol and Heathrow are saying 2026 to return to pre 2019 levels.

Does that include short haul?

Most people are predicting a must faster recovery in that sector of the market.

My figure is from q1 2020 long haul only.

Ultimately nobody knows at this time but it it is not looking good using your figure or mine.

[Soidog]

19 minutes ago, Cathat said:

The buissness of slots is pretty complicated.

An airline does not own the slot as such,it's a grandfather rights type of thing.

Say you have a slot at a major airport at a good time of day,you only retain it by using it.if you do not utslise it regularly and punctually you will lose it.

At the start of the crisis airlines we're hiring light twin engine aircraft to fly into London Heathrow and sit on the stand at the slot time then depart. the game was quickly stopped given the unprecedented circumstances and the potential for negative publicity due to environmental concerns.

Airlines do sell slots to competitors but it is rare and is normally done when the carrier is going bangkrupt,it's generally a last role of the dice,if a carrier fails and has valuable slots the liquidators will often get good money for them.the whole thing is normally done very quickly so the new carrier retains the right to use the slot.

Fair value of such rights is a topic of much debate.

It's more the right to operate into the airport at that time then anything else.

In normal times I think the utilisation rate is normally about 95 percent at major airports but that figure varies qui a bit with location.

Good post @Cathat  sounds like you may have first hand experience of this kind of thing. Is the aviation industry something you are involved/have been involved in? 

[Cathat]

14 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Good post @Cathat  sounds like you may have first hand experience of this kind of thing. Is the aviation industry something you are involved/have been involved in? 

Yes,I worked in the aviation industry previously but I  fortunately retired some years ago but still maintain an interest in it.

[Soidog]

43 minutes ago, Cathat said:

Yes,I worked in the aviation industry previously but I  fortunately retired some years ago but still maintain an interest in it.

Ok, good to know. A few people on here with PPL’s and so good to have someone who can clarify a few issues. Fascinating business, both in terms of airline manufacture and operations

[yselmike]

17 hours ago, Cathat said:

Does that include short haul?

Most people are predicting a must faster recovery in that sector of the market.

My figure is from q1 2020 long haul only.

Ultimately nobody knows at this time but it it is not looking good using your figure or mine.

As I understand it's across the board but I don't really know.Just read that every ticket from Schiphol are going up by at least €25 because the airport is raising it's airline fee's.