News Forum - Covid-19 Wednesday: 79 deaths, infections below 9,000

[Thaiger]

Today, the CCSA reported 8,918 new Covid-19 infections, down 204 since yesterday, the first times the new infections dipped under 9,000 in months. There were 79 Coronavirus-related deaths, up 8 from yesterday. Since April 1, in the latest wave of the virus in Thailand, a total of 1,782,989 confirmed Covid-19 infections have been reported. In the 24 hour period since the last count, the CCSA has reported 10,878 recoveries, up 147 from yesterday. There are now 103,507 people currently receiving treatment for Covid-19, down 2,039 from yesterday, including 2,728 in the ICU and 619 on ventilators. Of the new Covid-19 […]

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[mickkotlarski]

Slow as it may be but good to see numbers dropping.

[AussieBob]

Lets hope that the numbers continue to drop and that by mid-November they are below a few thousand.  But I get the feeling the numbers will be going up as more and more Thais currently in the Provinces come back to Bangkok looking for work that will generate from all the promised tourists coming. 

[pascal]

This trend is very encouraging, i really hope the number keep going down. Certainly not fast enough for November but we ll go there Thailand, keep up the good job.

[JohninDublin]

2 hours ago, mickkotlarski said:

Slow as it may be but good to see numbers dropping.

Agreed. That's the lowest it's been in 99 days.

The Vax rate still leaves a lot to be desired. I was surprised to see that Cam is 74% fully vaxxed with another 6% partials. TH is 36% and 17%

[mickkotlarski]

5 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Agreed. That's the lowest it's been in 99 days.

The Vax rate still leaves a lot to be desired. I was surprised to see that Cam is 74% fully vaxxed with another 6% partials. TH is 36% and 17%

If you mean Cambodia John then don't be praising the numbers too much as most of it is the Chinese vaccines.

[JohninDublin]

5 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

If you mean Cambodia John then don't be praising the numbers too much as most of it is the Chinese vaccines.

I suspected that might be the case, but I think it's likely that most of the stuff so far ingested in TH is the same. I am not aware that Cam has any plans to offer booster Western shots, so they may yet pay the price for that.

Still, make of them what you will, but the Cam stats for infection and mortality are impressive when compared to the TH.

[Griff1315]

The story of Santa Clause has more credibility to it than Thailand's daily covid figures.

What about all the ATK tests that get brushed under the rug. Start publishing the amount of test carried out and the number of ATK positives then we might see a true picture....

[mickkotlarski]

30 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I suspected that might be the case, but I think it's likely that most of the stuff so far ingested in TH is the same. I am not aware that Cam has any plans to offer booster Western shots, so they may yet pay the price for that.

Still, make of them what you will, but the Cam stats for infection and mortality are impressive when compared to the TH.

This is where your last comment about this topic really nailed it. Simply looking at daily cases is meaningless.

So many other factors must be considered to truly understand the extent of a nations position and how effected it is.

[Poolie]

1 hour ago, mickkotlarski said:

If you mean Cambodia John then don't be praising the numbers too much as most of it is the Chinese vaccines.

Oddly enough, so is China.

[mickkotlarski]

23 minutes ago, Poolie said:

Oddly enough, so is China.

But China has an ironclad lockdown. They could be handing its citizens aspirin and still keep the spread of the virus under control. 

[Rookiescot]

35 minutes ago, Poolie said:

Oddly enough, so is China.

If China has the virus so under control why has the country not opened up its borders?

Oh yeah, the figures are total lies and the CCP who know the real stats dont want others to see whats going on.

[mickkotlarski]

9 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

If China has the virus so under control why has the country not opened up its borders?

Oh yeah, the figures are total lies and the CCP who know the real stats dont want others to see whats going on.

It is strange when China talks of new break outs of Covid19 yet the worldometer shows that less than 100 people contracted  the virus from a population of 1.4 billion.

John Hopkins numbers reported are only as reliable as the source and some nations such as India and China seem to underestimate while others like the US and Mexico seem to overestimate.  

[mickkotlarski]

10 minutes ago, whitesnake said:

you're in  Cloud Cuckoo Land if you believe this BS!!

If you can come up with a bullet proof source do tell. Agreed that these numbers are BB's at the best of times but at least its an indication.

Just because there are pictures of Santa doesn't mean he's real. But Christmas is.

Edited October 20, 2021 by mickkotlarski

[Rookiescot]

5 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

It is strange when China talks of new break outs of Covid19 yet the worldometer shows that less than 100 people contracted  the virus from a population of 1.4 billion.

John Hopkins numbers reported are only as reliable as the source and some nations such as India and China seem to underestimate while others like the US and Mexico seem to overestimate.  

Hmmmm tis a quandary for sure.

Oh no wait.

They are lying. 

[Poolie]

59 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

But China has an ironclad lockdown. They could be handing its citizens aspirin and still keep the spread of the virus under control. 

I would say they are just very careful as they have been since day one of their outbreak. Everyone walks around very carefree but can produce a mask at the drop of a hat. No-one gives anyone anything but its all available.

It's not a competition, as some seem to think.

[mickkotlarski]

2 minutes ago, Poolie said:

I would say they are just very careful as they have been since day one of their outbreak. Everyone walks around very carefree but can produce a mask at the drop of a hat. No-one gives anyone anything but its all available.

It's not a competition, as some seem to think.

Unfortunately your comment is sad but true. So many take the pandemic stats as some kind of competition.

Asian nations handled the pandemic better than the West apart from the Anzac nations. Nobody wants to wear a mask or carry alcoholic gel but some responded better than others.

 If there is something to keep after covid is controlled is lessons learnt. Taiwan and Hong Kong learned theirs after SARS. The results speak for themselves.

 

[Rookiescot]

30 minutes ago, Poolie said:

I would say they are just very careful as they have been since day one of their outbreak. Everyone walks around very carefree but can produce a mask at the drop of a hat. No-one gives anyone anything but its all available.

It's not a competition, as some seem to think.

Is that why they were welding the doors shut on some people?

[Soidog]

6 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Lets hope that the numbers continue to drop and that by mid-November they are below a few thousand.  But I get the feeling the numbers will be going up as more and more Thais currently in the Provinces come back to Bangkok looking for work that will generate from all the promised tourists coming. 

I know I’m preaching to the converted @AussieBob  but until they start testing more, then the numbers are literally worthless. Look at the number of test per day profile over recent week. We know cases follow tests…

 

The second photo shows positive rates. Still a major issue for Thailand  

[mickkotlarski]

6 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I know I’m preaching to the converted @AussieBob  but until they start testing more, then the numbers are literally worthless. Look at the number of test per day profile over recent week. We know cases follow tests…

The second photo shows positive rates. Still a major issue for Thailand  

Every picture tells a story.

[JohninDublin]

5 hours ago, Soidog said:

I know I’m preaching to the converted @AussieBob  but until they start testing more, then the numbers are literally worthless. Look at the number of test per day profile over recent week. We know cases follow tests…

The second photo shows positive rates. Still a major issue for Thailand  

I know that there are plenty on here who look upon testing as gold standard. It clearly has it's place for number-crunchers like myself, but I don't necessarily believe that the TH figures can be extrapolated to suggest that if the tests are returning 22% in TH, then the infection rate must be in that range. My guess, and it is only guess, is that the Thais are more likely to seek a test when they feel unwell. But in the UK, many tests are precautionary. For example, you might be using the phone-app that advises you that you have been in close contact with an infected person, and though you are experiencing no symptoms, you are likely to go for a test. And if you get the message today and you test tomorrow negative, are you going to perhaps seek another test in a few days time to allow for incubation periods? 

I suspect that if people were told to wait until they show symptoms from these alerts, there would be a lot fewer tests, but that the positive rates would be a lot higher. During the meantime I am sure that those who follow UK news will be aware of "Pingdemic". This was because so many people were getting close contact alerts, the gov modified it's advice suggesting that just because they got a ping, they did not necessarily need to self-isolate.

The reason I mention this is because the UK gov have today announced that it's possible that infections might soon reach 100K a day. On that basis, if you think that the UK/TH figures in the graph can be shown to expose huge under-reporting by TH, if the UK does hit 100K, then TH with a rate of about 22% to the UK's 4% in terms of positives, might see over 500k infections a day.

 

[Soidog]

26 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

I know that there are plenty on here who look upon testing as gold standard. It clearly has it's place for number-crunchers like myself, but I don't necessarily believe that the TH figures can be extrapolated to suggest that if the tests are returning 22% in TH, then the infection rate must be in that range. My guess, and it is only guess, is that the Thais are more likely to seek a test when they feel unwell. But in the UK, many tests are precautionary. For example, you might be using the phone-app that advises you that you have been in close contact with an infected person, and though you are experiencing no symptoms, you are likely to go for a test. And if you get the message today and you test tomorrow negative, are you going to perhaps seek another test in a few days time to allow for incubation periods? 

I suspect that if people were told to wait until they show symptoms from these alerts, there would be a lot fewer tests, but that the positive rates would be a lot higher. During the meantime I am sure that those who follow UK news will be aware of "Pingdemic". This was because so many people were getting close contact alerts, the gov modified it's advice suggesting that just because they got a ping, they did not necessarily need to self-isolate.

The reason I mention this is because the UK gov have today announced that it's possible that infections might soon reach 100K a day. On that basis, if you think that the UK/TH figures in the graph can be shown to expose huge under-reporting by TH, if the UK does hit 100K, then TH with a rate of about 22% to the UK's 4% in terms of positives, might see over 500k infections a day.

I totally agree. The testing policy of the two countries is different and I’m not suggesting for a second that you can extrapolate the Thai cases in that way. I would however think it’s perfectly reasonable to assume a 3-5 times increase in cases if they adopted similar testing policy to the U.K. Perhaps 30,000-50,000 a day is more likely for Thailand?  The high end would place them closer to U.K. numbers. Thailand is not fully open for business but they are also less vaccinated.
 

In terms of blocking the U.K. from visiting Thailand as Morocco has done today, I think that’s also a mistake. Everyone travelling must show a negative PCR Test prior to flying, and one on arrival. In theory, none, or very few should slip through that net. My only reservation being if you contract something on the flight over then you won’t show positive just 12-24 hours later. A flow test on arrival and again on day 3 would have been better screening I think?  
 

Whatever any country does, you won’t stop this virus. Even hard lockdown countries like Thailand, Australia and New Zealand have realised that. It remains a probability of risk and numbers challenge. I won’t use the word game, as it’s hardly that. 

[JohninDublin]

24 minutes ago, Soidog said:

I totally agree. The testing policy of the two countries is different and I’m not suggesting for a second that you can extrapolate the Thai cases in that way. I would however think it’s perfectly reasonable to assume a 3-5 times increase in cases if they adopted similar testing policy to the U.K. Perhaps 30,000-50,000 a day is more likely for Thailand?  The high end would place them closer to U.K. numbers. Thailand is not fully open for business but they are also less vaccinated.
 

In terms of blocking the U.K. from visiting Thailand as Morocco has done today, I think that’s also a mistake. Everyone travelling must show a negative PCR Test prior to flying, and one on arrival. In theory, none, or very few should slip through that net. My only reservation being if you contract something on the flight over then you won’t show positive just 12-24 hours later. A flow test on arrival and again on day 3 would have been better screening I think?  
 

Whatever any country does, you won’t stop this virus. Even hard lockdown countries like Thailand, Australia and New Zealand have realised that. It remains a probability of risk and numbers challenge. I won’t use the word game, as it’s hardly that. 

I am inclined to give the TH figures, credit for a lot more accuracy that many others do on this forum. As I've suggested on several occasions, I suspect that most of the testing of Thais has been on the basis of people not feeling well, and this is reflected in the high percentages for infections. On the UK side most of the recent testing has (again I suspect), been on the back of the "pingdemic". But imagine if the approach from the UK was to wait until they feel unwell after being pinged. There would be much fewer tests done, but the positives would have increased significantly.

But another factor that I think needs consideration is the fact that both country's recent surges coincide with the arrival of the Delta Variant. But TH did not have a large Indian community rushing to get home to avoid hotel quarantine, whereas the UK did. They did this on the back of PCR tests obtained in a country that is famed for medical corruption with little or no screening on their arrival back in the UK. And if you look at the pattern of large outbreaks of Delta in the UK, they were all occurring in towns with large Indian Communities. And if you construct your own graph from https://ourworldindata.org/search?q=delta+variant you will see that not exactly the same, the expansion of Delta Variants in both countries have a fairly similar trajectory barring a couple of glitches.

The key factor is that Delta is less likely to be asymptomatic than previous versions and thus it is more likely that Thais will look for a test because they are more likely to feel ill.

But take a look at this chart here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=GBR~THA and you will see that it mirrors what each country was doing at various times. TH remained in lockdown throughout most of this time and infections remained below 10 per 100k until nearly mid-April. The UK has it's lockdown but fails to close it's borders until July 2020. Eventually the first wave reaches it's peak of 370 per 100k on Nov 16th. TH is showing 0.07 per 100k. Three weeks later, it looks like we've turned the corner and infections have dropped to just over 200 in the UK and TH are up to 0.2 at that stage the UK infection is 1000X that of TH. Sure the UK is carrying out more testing, but could the TH figures be out by a factor 1000X.

Then Bojo decides to play Santa and lifts many of the restrictions for Xmas/NY, Big mistake. By Jan 10th, allowing for incubation, the UK rate  is at 876 while TH is at 4.3, Still a difference of over 200X. The UK reinstates the pre-Xmas lockdown, Then the vax starts to take effect. By April 1st the UK is 66 and TH 0.91, though TH has done virtually no vaxxing at this time On that date, TH has double jabbed just 0.05% of it's people and a further 0.19% have received one shot. The figures from the UK are 7.25% and 38.65% respectively. By May 14, Delta is starting to take a serious hold and for the first time TH is reporting higher infection rates than the UK, though not by much. By that time, TH has given 1% a

one jab, and a similar number, 2 shots. The UK has managed 24 and 29% respectively.

By June 3rd, the UK resumes its position as reporting higher infection rates but there is no significant gap, However by this time TH have vaxxed 1.8% twice, and a further 2.1% once. But this is also the time when Delta is showing of the Vax' frailties. From there on in, it is pretty much the UK who is being shown as sickest in this debate.

But my point is that if you allow or time lags just about everyone of these numbers. were in retrospect, predictable based on what each country was doing at any given time. On that basis, I'd say that there is no real evidence that the figures were significantly distorted because of under-testing by TH. In fact, I would say quite the opposite. The figures were distorted by over-testing in the UK, with 97.5 cases being negative. TH's rate for negative tests were 80%. 

But just to make it clear, I do not claim that more testing would not have found more cases, if the UK carried out 37 X more test per capita and that "logic" was applied, then you have to start thinking. "37X? Hmmm?  Maybe they've only found 10% of the actual cases"? We will never know  with any certainty, but I'd be inclined to the reason for the huge discrepancy was indeed over-testing, much of which was linked to the pingdemic.

[HiuMak]

10 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

If China has the virus so under control why has the country not opened up its borders?

Oh yeah, the figures are total lies and the CCP who know the real stats dont want others to see whats going on.

You must understand that China knows its virus best.

only fools rush in.

[AussieBob]

10 hours ago, Soidog said:

I know I’m preaching to the converted @AussieBob  but until they start testing more, then the numbers are literally worthless. Look at the number of test per day profile over recent week. We know cases follow tests…

The second photo shows positive rates. Still a major issue for Thailand  

WOW !!  I knew the numbers were a bit dubious because CCS stopped advising the number of daily tests conducted. But clearly as part of their required reporting to WHO, they do give the number of daily tests.  Thanks for that mate - adds even more to the argument we both share that case numbers could easily blow up in their face - just like is happening in Russia.  There is no 'official' reason for the massive jump in numbers in Russia, but there are pundits who are claiming it is due to the Govt allowing people to travel and return - under a system of corrupted and dubious vaccination certificates/tests.  I also note that the vast majority of the new cases in Russia entering hospital are unvaccinated.  I think we will soon see these numbers coming out worldwide - the ratio between vaccinated and unvaccinated both entering hospitals and those dying.