News Forum - Health experts weigh in on risks of re-opening Thailand without quarantine

[Bob20]

5 minutes ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

I'd bet if these high horse resident whiners against any opening and tourists coming in were to cut off their funding from abroad because of COVID they would demand opening all up by next month!

No friend. I can't speak for others, but there's such a thing as solidarity and I happily stay out of the way and tone things down until we all can start some form of normal life again.

Funny thing is that the Thais don't complain half as much as the foreigners here. Same for the Thai wives and families of foreigners.

We're all presented with a situation and there's nothing any individual can do about it. And those that don't care and try to find or exceed the limits, just prolong the misery for everyone.

[dmacarelli]

2 hours ago, Bob20 said:

Just need the vaccine supply first. Many jab locations closed despite the ridiculous 178.2m figure. They're even accepting donations, clear sign they haven't got what is needed, shown also by the low daily vaccination numbers which were promised to be 1m+ per day since 15 September but never happen.

Everyone wants to make progress, but it all stops with the vaccine availability...

It is quite pathetic that the one time "Tiger of SE Asia",  has been reduced to a rabid, anemic, skinny, alley cat, dependent on donations from nations who are showing the sickly animal some pity. 

And it mostly comes down to a stunning lack of planning and foresight, a heinous health minister who did not take Covid seriously, and really bad leadership. 

Woe is Thailand. 

[dmacarelli]

Weigh the risk of re-opening with the risk of 20-40% long term, sustained unemployment, dramatically rising suicide rates, and a crippled economy that might take 7 years to recover. 

Extreme cowardice comes at a very high price. The 1% are doing well. And the rest? 

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, dmacarelli said:

Weigh the risk of re-opening with the risk of 20-40% long term, sustained unemployment, dramatically rising suicide rates, and a crippled economy that might take 7 years to recover. 

Extreme cowardice comes at a very high price. The 1% are doing well. And the rest? 

Although I agree with the sentiment of many of your posts, I think October 2021 isn't the turning point for most people. We're way past that already.

The hardship has been prolonged and losing more friends or relatives to the virus is much worse. The difference between 19 or 21 months isn't all of a sudden going to tip many over the edge. Besides, from what I hear (but even on this forum there are no hard figures) suicide rates are not much higher and certainly not in the region of the number of victims the virus would claim if we let it rip. An extra two month with frantic vaccination isn't going to add 7 years to the recovery time and we won't have 3000-8000 avoidable deaths for the sake of a few baht. Because it will be like Phuket: huge financial and human cost for little benefit.

Let's open up when we can do it responsibly. Not just because some are fed-up with the situation.

[Stonker]

6 hours ago, Jayce said:

Way to completely not address any of the other points I've raised. Let me return the favour in kind...

Any decent arguments you care to raise other than your emotional diatribe?

Well. @Jayce, I'm happy to raise what I think are decent arguments as I did with you before, but it was you who chose not to address them.

You may recall that in another thread yesterday you wrote:

 

On 10/12/2021 at 7:35 AM, Jayce said:

Those people are more likely to be infected by a fellow thai then a tourist...

and I replied:

 

On 10/12/2021 at 10:14 AM, Stonker said:

Agreed, as I've said several times.

The problem, as I've tried to explain several times as have several others, isn't the individual foreign tourists spreading Covid (although obviously they're no less likely to than anyone else) but the TOURISM they bring with them and need: bars, nightlife, travel, relaxed rules on masks and social distancing, etc.

Everything that's directly responsible for the spread of Covid.

What part of that don't you agree with or understand?

That's not being argumentative but a genuine question, as you either don't understand or you don't accept it, and I genuinely can't understand why not.

You didn't reply, although you would have received a notification.

Maybe now, here, you could explain what part of that you don't agree with?

As for the "other points [you] raised", the only one I could really identify was:

8 hours ago, Jayce said:

And those domestic travel restrictions will be out the window at the same point in time as when international arrivals will start being allowed, so your point is???

Not my point, admittedly, but @Bob20's, but the point is that without international arrivals being encouraged as well as allowed, there would be far less incentive to remove those domestic travel restrictions. 

If domestic travel restrictions are still in place, along with restrictions on bars, nightlife, restaurants, etc, and mandatory mask wearing as well as social distancing, then international arrivals are less likely to come here so those rules have to be "out the window" to encourage international arrivals.

The international arrivals aren't spreading Covid themselves, at least no more than anyone else and arguably possibly less, but they're the catalyst for Covid beng spread by everyone else.  The tourists aren't to blame, but the advent of international tourism is.

 

 

[DiJoDavO]

11 hours ago, DoUKnowWhoIAm said:

Here we go again. Opimistic plan-> prominent doctors worry->u turn. 

Because since 2020, happiness is not allowed anymore. Everything needs to be scary and stay scary outside of everyone's house. 

[Stonker]

10 hours ago, Jayce said:

In short, vaccinated tourism isn't going to make matters worse for thailand while having substantial economical upside.

Well, yes it is for the reasons I've just explained as I explained them to you before - and I'm eagerly awaiting your explanation of why what I've said is wrong.

9 hours ago, Jayce said:

A little additional travel from vaccinated tourists isn't going to affect anything nearly as much as the Thais moving around themselves...

But the "vaccinated tourists" are the excuse for allowing Thais to move around - you can't allow the tourists to move around freely without allowing the Thais to do the same.  It's just not just discriminatory, but it's not possible to police a lockdown where the vaccinated can move around but the unvaccnated can't.

10 hours ago, Jayce said:

And yes, of course Thailand should step up their vaccination game pronto, but again, vaccinated tourism isn't going to be the thing that gets them into a greater pickle, lack of vaccination otoh surely will.

But while Thailand "should", it's asking the impossible. The government stuffed up the vaccine procurement, so it can't roll out what it doesn't have.  What's happened can't be undone.

The plan is to allow as many tourists as possible into Thailand for what's left of the high season at the end of the year.  That's eleven weeks away.

Take off a fortnight to try to get tourists here in numbers from mid-December and that's only nine weeks away.

Take off the fortnight needed after the second jab for the vaccine to be effective, and that's only seven weeks away.

Even overlooking that the third of Thais who have been fully vaccinated here have mainly been vaccinated with Sinovac or a combination of Sinovac and Astra Zeneca, and accepting that those aged 12-17 will only get one dose of Pfizer, that still leaves half the population who haven't even had a first dose of anything yet.

With the best will in the world, and all the vaccines in the world, it's going to be impossible to have most of the population here vaccinated in seven weeks - even if you only aim to get 70 or 80 percent vaccinated, not all, it's still impossible.

[Stonker]

3 hours ago, Soidog said:

Couldn’t agree more. If they get this wrong, it will be short term gain for long term pain. 
 

I guess the two week foreigners who come in December and have a great time  and go home to Europe won’t give a damn. If Thailand deaths rise in January and the country has to lockdown again in February why would they care. Back to a country with excellent health and social care. Hopefully it will all get sorted by December 2022 and they can come again and ask where the nice old lady in the shop next door is?  Oh she died in February due to breathing difficulties, she was old anyway! 

There's little for the vaccinated tourists to give a damn about.

As I said elsewhere, even if they catch Covid they're likely to be asymptomatic so unlikely to be tested and for it to affect their holiday and they always have the choice not to come here.

Half the Thais, on the other hand, are completely unvaccinated and of the third that are vaccinated most have been vaccintaed either partly or fully with Sinovac which is ineffective against the Delta variant which is predominant. If they catch Covid, whether from the tourists or more probably from Thais who are taking advantage of the more relaxed rules and encouragement to travel, they're likely to be symptomatic, quarantined, and lose time off work, unpaid, at best, or to be hospitalized and die at wost.

They have no choice about whether to be here or not, and most don't have a choice about working and trying to live as normal a life as possible or earning a living.

 

 

[DiJoDavO]

10 hours ago, Bob20 said:

You fail to see that there are still restrictions in place. As another member asked, do you even live here and see what is going on or do you get your knowledge from hearsay?

Since a few weeks some restrictions have been eased (like some interprovincial travel) which has made numbers in for instance Chiang Mai shoot up with area lockdowns.

And if you had seen my posts, I'm not only against international travel, but against all major movements.

We've had restrictions for 19 months. A couple more will make opening up a lot safer (if they get jabbing!). I don't care at all about the few baht from a few people that want to have a bit of sunshine and a party. You can delay that or do that elsewhere, where it's safe.

The dead that inevitably follow from your luxury holiday urges, don't get that choice.

Just wondering. How often do you go outside? Seeing your comments, you won't dare to go anywhere where they tell you on TV that there's Covid. And I've the feeling you kinda live in a bunker. Not meaning to insult, but you seem very protective. 

The thing is, there are people living in these areas which still go outside and don't notice anything. Like Me, for example. I still go outside, see many people and I really experience the things outside. Weirdly enough, never the horror stories from TV. If I have to believe those stories, I would have DEFINITELY noticed anything outside. 

Back to the begin, where I assume you probably go as far as your garage or something, you probably believe everything in the news. But you haven't experienced real life situation. So you probably think outside right now is a warzone full of people begging for vaccines and people dead in the streets. You only watch scary numbers in scary researches. Get out of your bunker and you'll see something whole different! 

About the last part:

The dead that inevitably follow from your luxury holiday urges, don't get that choice.

Don't be so dramatic

You and everyone who is scared of Covid, can all stay in your bunker, but people who are vaccinated and want to go out, should just be able to go out. You can't expect 100% of the people to stay inside until literally every human is vaccinated. (I do think though, that vaccines should be provided quicker instead of giving some people their 9th booster while some still have 0).

If someone is not vaccinated yet, they should decide for themselves whether to go out or not. But they should be careful with contacting others. 

People who are vaccinated should be able to just go back to normal. Should not try to be in contact with unvaccinated people, but this should be counted in as a risk unvaccinated people were willing to take when deciding to go out. 

[Bob20]

53 minutes ago, DiJoDavO said:

People who are vaccinated should be able to just go back to normal. Should not try to be in contact with unvaccinated people, but this should be counted in as a risk unvaccinated people were willing to take when deciding to go out. 

Thanks for writing in such detail.

I actually leave home early morning and am outside all day It's one of the reasons I'm in Thailand. And if there's time, I type or react. Mostly from a river or a mountain or an outdoor coffee shop. I haven't even been on the forum for too long as you can see from my joining date.

But being outside doesn't mean I search for crowds or behave irresponsibly.

We disagree though on the unvaccinated having to hide. I think we're all in this together and the lucky ones who got a vaccine early (and a good one) can't just carry on as normal and leave the others behind until perhaps they are lucky as well, if they don't catch the virus first. I'm not talking about the ones that refuse a vaccine, I'm talking about the ones that couldn't get one yet.

Besides, in interactions, you can't see on the outside whether you're dealing with someone vaccinated or unvaccinated, nor do you know whether you are perhaps a symptomless carrier.

The vaccine only protects the one in whose arm it's jabbed. And there haven't been enough vaccines for everyone who wants them in Thailand, plus quite a few have been ineffective against Delta.

Until the people who are still waiting have had their chance, we should take it easy. Mass tourism creates movement that spreads the virus, which we already notice with the southerners taking weekend breaks and case numbers shooting up. You don't readily see that, because the government now nicely hides it by doing ATK-tests and then not including the positives in the daily figures. Hence the doctors ringing the alarm-bell.

Whether this takes 19 or 21 months doesn't matter anymore. Today is not the tipping point for problems, that point is long gone. And talking about 3000-4000 deaths a month is only dramatic if none of those are known to you. It means thousands of families losing breadwinners (and not just temporarily!) and/or loved ones. 

When this started we said "nobody is safe until everybody is safe". That was the spirit, but many have conveniently forgotten it too quickly.

[DiJoDavO]

39 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Thanks for writing in such detail.

I actually leave home early morning and am outside all day It's one of the reasons I'm in Thailand. And if there's time, I type or react. Mostly from a river or a mountain or an outdoor coffee shop. I haven't even been on the forum for too long as you can see from my joining date.

But being outside doesn't mean I search for crowds or behave irresponsibly.

We disagree though on the unvaccinated having to hide. I think we're all in this together and the lucky ones who got a vaccine early (and a good one) can't just carry on as normal and leave the others behind until perhaps they are lucky as well, if they don't catch the virus first. I'm not talking about the ones that refuse a vaccine, I'm talking about the ones that couldn't get one yet.

Besides, in interactions, you can't see on the outside whether you're dealing with someone vaccinated or unvaccinated, nor do you know whether you are perhaps a symptomless carrier.

The vaccine only protects the one in whose arm it's jabbed. And there haven't been enough vaccines for everyone who wants them in Thailand, plus quite a few have been ineffective against Delta.

Until the people who are still waiting have had their chance, we should take it easy. Mass tourism creates movement that spreads the virus, which we already notice with the southerners taking weekend breaks and case numbers shooting up. You don't readily see that, because the government now nicely hides it by doing ATK-tests and then not including the positives in the daily figures. Hence the doctors ringing the alarm-bell.

Whether this takes 19 or 21 months doesn't matter anymore. Today is not the tipping point for problems, that point is long gone. And talking about 3000-4000 deaths a month is only dramatic if none of those are known to you. It means thousands of families losing breadwinners (and not just temporarily!) and/or loved ones. 

When this started we said "nobody is safe until everybody is safe". That was the spirit, but many have conveniently forgotten it too quickly.

Sorry for assuming you are living in a bunker but your comments sometimes make it difficult to think something else. 

Good that you are outside too, so you might notice what I meant. Only a bit strange your reactions are often in a way that makes me think you want people to stay inside while you are outside too.

Your point, that you made a difference here between people who had a chance and didn't take the vaccine vs people who can't get it yet:

I don't read 100% of your posts. To mine, I haven't seen this point yet. I agree with you here, but I still think we should open anyways. When I was not vaccinated yet, I was outside and careful too. When they think they can do it, they definitely should, but if there's a risk for them, it's one they take themselves. Ok, you can't see who is and who isn't vaccinated. So just try to avoid contact from people you are not sure of whether they got it or not. Maybe there are too many restrictions in that case (no bus, bts, mrt, etc) but life should continue at one point. 

One thing that has to stop is giving some people their, idk 9th(?) booster, while others haven't even got their 1st one yet. By now, maybe almost everyone could've got at least one vaccine if they didn't give others their 3rd or 4th boosters. 

About the deaths, the way you phrased it, I think it was a bit dramatic. It's not that if I go somewhere, death definitely follows or something. 

About amounts and cases I think we won't agree. But I still think some numbers are a bit worse than they actually are. 

[Stonker]

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

Like Me, for example. I still go outside, see many people and I really experience the things outside.

Just curious, @DiJoDavO, but where is "outside" for you?

While those around me are taking Covid more seriously and even in the villages those who wouldn't bother with a mask before are wearing masks, and more signs are going up saying "no tourists, closed due to Covid", the opposite seems to be happening in your "outside".

Also ...

26 minutes ago, DiJoDavO said:

When I was not vaccinated yet, I was outside and careful too.

Just to clarify, do you mean that now you're vaccinated you're not so "careful"?

[Soidog]

9 hours ago, Bob20 said:

Let's open up when we can do it responsibly. Not just because some are fed-up with the situation.

Agreed @Bob20  the feedback I’ve received from a number of Thais from across Thailand is that they don’t really want this. They tell me Thai social media is largely of the same opinion. They understand the economic impact this is having on the country, but feel it is worth waiting a little longer as much of the damage has already been done and vaccination is low. 
 

I still have a sneaky feeling the Thais will “get away” with this? I couldn’t possibly try to justify how and why, just years of  seeing them buck normal trends.  Hard plain logic says the country will be back in lockdown, or at least partial lockdowns, by mid to late January. Somehow I feel they will avoid it through a combination of “smoke & mirrors” and unadulterated lies. 

[DiJoDavO]

8 hours ago, Stonker said:

Just curious, @DiJoDavO, but where is "outside" for you?

While those around me are taking Covid more seriously and even in the villages those who wouldn't bother with a mask before are wearing masks, and more signs are going up saying "no tourists, closed due to Covid", the opposite seems to be happening in your "outside".

Also ...

Just to clarify, do you mean that now you're vaccinated you're not so "careful"?

It's funny how I keep saying it, but still no one gets the point. Compared to what is told on the TV, I don't notice anything outside. On the news they literally said every worst case scenario. If all those things were true, I'd have noticed it when I was outside. Or else maybe I happen to be at the right place at the right time for about 2 years. Which is really unlikely. Maybe you are in the wrong place at the wrong time. But now probably you will still not get the point. 

Nowadays I'm almost as careful as everyone else around me. Which is less careful than before but also with a bit of thoughtfulness. I would just go to a shop, restaurant, etc. even if it's almost full. But on a train, when there's one seat free (yes, only one seat, because nobody else actually cares here) I'd rather just stand, not to make them feel uncomfortable. 

You guys should learn that wherever you live is not where I live, and where I live, people are getting a bit more loose, and that's now perfectly fine. If people want to travel between those places, it should be possible too, because it is made possible, but just be careful not to bring anything in. 

If they don't want it, then just close the whole province and don't say, you can still come, but do this and that. But don't expect it to be like that in every place in Thailand. 

But I guess this was my last point about the whole Covid thing. In your messages I can almost feel you just don't want to understand my point and go nitpicking about those little sentences as if you're somekind of lawyer. I guess, if I say the sky is blue, but it's cloudy where you live, you would argue with me that in my place it is cloudy too. 

[Bob20]

19 minutes ago, DiJoDavO said:

It's funny how I keep saying it, but still no one gets the point. Compared to what is told on the TV, I don't notice anything outside. On the news they literally said every worst case scenario. If all those things were true, I'd have noticed it when I was outside. Or else maybe I happen to be at the right place at the right time for about 2 years. Which is really unlikely. Maybe you are in the wrong place at the wrong time. But now probably you will still not get the point. 

Nowadays I'm almost as careful as everyone else around me. Which is less careful than before but also with a bit of thoughtfulness. I would just go to a shop, restaurant, etc. even if it's almost full. But on a train, when there's one seat free (yes, only one seat, because nobody else actually cares here) I'd rather just stand, not to make them feel uncomfortable. 

You guys should learn that wherever you live is not where I live, and where I live, people are getting a bit more loose, and that's now perfectly fine. If people want to travel between those places, it should be possible too, because it is made possible, but just be careful not to bring anything in. 

If they don't want it, then just close the whole province and don't say, you can still come, but do this and that. But don't expect it to be like that in every place in Thailand. 

But I guess this was my last point about the whole Covid thing. In your messages I can almost feel you just don't want to understand my point and go nitpicking about those little sentences as if you're somekind of lawyer. I guess, if I say the sky is blue, but it's cloudy where you live, you would argue with me that in my place it is cloudy too. 

Your earlier message was quite composed, but you're going off the rails my friend.

Not only do you not answer the basic question, but you continue to fail to understand that you can not see who is vaccinated or unvaccinated. You also do not know if you are infected and symptomlessly transmit the virus to others.

Also, we don't live on an island (and even there it can't be contained), so that your area would be safer is another false sense of security. It only needs one infected local to visit a family member...

Like for many, your vaccination makes you feel safe, and you've clearly let your guard down regarding others as they don't matter to you so much.

Maybe you understand this: Did you selectively wear a mask also when you weren't vaccinated yet? Did you know back then also who you were dealing with? The answer is NO. 

And this behaviour is exactly why the country isn't ready to open, as the ones who were not offered a vaccine yet are at more risk because of the behaviour of others.

[DiJoDavO]

26 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Like for many, your vaccination makes you feel safe, and you've clearly let your guard down regarding others as they don't matter to you so much.

Again, you guys don't even bother to understand. 

 

26 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Not only do you not answer the basic question, but you continue to fail to understand that you can not see who is vaccinated or unvaccinated. You also do not know if you are infected and symptomlessly transmit the virus to others.

Again, you didn't read my post carefully so you're not trying to understand. And if by answering the basic questions mean answer it in the way you want, yeah then no, I didn't answer the question as you want it to be. 

 

26 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Also, we don't live on an island (and even there it can't be contained), so that your area would be safer is another false sense of security. It only needs one infected local to visit a family member..

I'm on an island now, but where did I say I am living on an island? Again, you're not even trying. As I said there is a bts and an mrt, well that narrows it down to about 1 place. 

 

26 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

 

 

 

10 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

I actually leave home early morning and am outside all day It's one of the reasons I'm in Thailand. And if there's time, I type or react. Mostly from a river or a mountain or an outdoor coffee shop. I haven't even been on the forum for too long as you can see from my joining date.

I still also haven't heard an answer on your hypocrisy where you keep telling everyone to lock down and stay home, but you can just be found outside all day just for recreation. Dead people don't have the choice to go out to a river, mountain or coffee shop

"And if there's time, I type or react." 

I guess you have plenty of time. There's no post of mine that you didn't reply to, not too long after I posted it. 

From now on, I really don't react to anything covid related anymore. Because it's as if nothing is understood and some are just twisting meanings of things I have said. 

[Stonker]

2 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

It's funny how I keep saying it (snip)

No, @DijoDavO, nothing you say is "funny" anymore as people here (on this forum and in Thailand) are trying to treat you with some courtesy, simply asking you where you are so your supposed current experience in Thailand can be put into perspective.

 

2 hours ago, DiJoDavO said:

 In your messages I can almost feel you just don't want to understand my point and go nitpicking about those little sentences as if you're somekind of lawyer.

No, I "want to understand" which is why I asked you, quite reasonably, where you were so your post can be put into perspective, but you refused to say except with riddles.

 

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

I'm on an island now, but where did I say I am living on an island? Again, you're not even trying. As I said there is a bts and an mrt, well that narrows it down to about 1 place.

Singapore is an island and has a "BTS", though not as it's usually understood here, as well as an MRT.

What is happening in Singapore is not happening in Thailand, so it's disingenuous (and I'm trying my best to be polite with that) to imagine or pretend that it is - it's simply wasting people's time which is what you appear to enjoy doing.

[Bob20]

1 hour ago, DiJoDavO said:

Again, you guys don't even bother to understand. 

Again, you didn't read my post carefully so you're not trying to understand. And if by answering the basic questions mean answer it in the way you want, yeah then no, I didn't answer the question as you want it to be. 

I'm on an island now, but where did I say I am living on an island? Again, you're not even trying. As I said there is a bts and an mrt, well that narrows it down to about 1 place. 

I still also haven't heard an answer on your hypocrisy where you keep telling everyone to lock down and stay home, but you can just be found outside all day just for recreation. Dead people don't have the choice to go out to a river, mountain or coffee shop

"And if there's time, I type or react." 

I guess you have plenty of time. There's no post of mine that you didn't reply to, not too long after I posted it. 

From now on, I really don't react to anything covid related anymore. Because it's as if nothing is understood and some are just twisting meanings of things I have said. 

Some people fail to understand the most simple matters. Some just argue for the sake of it. Some just can't read.

Outside is the safest place, but you forgot to quote that I said "But being outside doesn't mean I search for crowds or behave irresponsibly."

And I'm not telling anyone to "lock down". I'm asking for responsible behaviour. And that doesn't include mass tourism with lots of movement and nightlife and ignoring safety measures like wearing masks (which is already happening here through southerners on breaks) until people have had the chance to get jabbed.

For the rest I agree. So feel free not to respond to anything Covid related anymore as you say, as currently you're only looking for confirmation of your own views which scientifically you won't find, and as such you're not adding value to the discussion.