News Forum - Health experts weigh in on risks of re-opening Thailand without quarantine

[Thaiger]

Following Monday night’s announcement by PM Prayut Chan-o-cha that Thailand will re-open quarantine-free for select vaccinated tourists from November, health experts have voiced concern. The Bangkok Post reports that some prominent medics are worried re-opening without quarantine will provoke a surge in Covid-19 infections. Thira Woratanarat from the Faculty of Medicine at Chulalongkorn University has warned that daily case numbers could end up doubling – and continue doubling every 3 weeks – as a result of the move. Thiravat Hemachudha from the Thai Red Cross says he supports the re-opening, but does have concerns about it triggering another wave of […]

The story Health experts weigh in on risks of re-opening Thailand without quarantine as seen on Thaiger News.

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[DoUKnowWhoIAm]

18 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

some prominent medics are worried

Here we go again. Opimistic plan-> prominent doctors worry->u turn. 

[Tvermoes]

I can't see this if this goes for fully vaccinated tourists and they also make a rest before leaving the home country and again upon arrival! 

Seriously?! 

[Bob20]

Ah, they've copied the BP now. I referred to it here

https://thethaiger.com/talk/topic/6474-news-forum-november-reopening-to-international-tourists-predicts-15-trillion-baht/?do=findComment&comment=81711

It doesn't take much to understand why it'll all go pear-shaped if done too early. It's the same reason why we have 100.000+ people in hospitals and 3000-4000 deaths each month!

Because movement transports the virus to the vulnerable. Vaccination is protection, and that needs to be done first.

(and yes, vaccinated people can pick up and carry the virus and spread it too!)

[palooka]

“If 100,000 tourists visit, how will we do PCR tests because we have never done so many before?”

So more resources get pumped into tourism and the vax and test numbers for Thais be damned.

The next wave will be huge.

[Malc-Thai]

“If 100,000 tourists visit, how will we do PCR tests because we have never done so many before?"

This says it all really!

not many more will come within the first month due to no entertainment really open.. can see the last few expat returnees coming back without quarantine .  Then little covid infections and Prat announcing it's a great success so open the nightlife in December, albeit probably until 10pm sharp! 

that's when covid infections will start again from mass movement looking for work

Edited October 13, 2021 by Malc-Thai

[Bob20]

Just now, palooka said:

“If 100,000 tourists visit, how will we do PCR tests because we have never done so many before?”

So more resources get pumped into tourism and the vax and test numbers for Thais be damned.

The next wave will be huge.

Don't worry about the resources. They have 8.5m unreliable ATK's. They'll find a way to use those at the airports

If they open too early, the next wave will come regardless. They haven't learned anything from previous dumb decisions.

Then again, the decision makers had good vaccines and boosters. The misery and death elsewhere in the country are just numbers in reports.

[Malc-Thai]

2 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Don't worry about the resources. They have 8.5m unreliable ATK's. They'll find a way to use those at the airports

If they open too early, the next wave will come regardless. They haven't learned anything from previous dumb decisions.

Then again, the decision makers had good vaccines and boosters. The misery and death elsewhere in the country are just numbers in reports.

8.5 million unrecorded positives to come ?

[Bob20]

2 minutes ago, Malc-Thai said:

8.5 million unrecorded positives to come ?

I hear they have a big carpet and brush...

[Bob20]

Thaiger could create a thread of the UK politicians today calling for new restrictions, as opening up (even with their high level of vaccinations and good effective vaccines) is now putting them at the bottom of the European list of Covid performance.

More than 180 deaths yesterday and hospitals all full again...

Thailand hasn't got half the vaccination level (and mostly Sinovac).

Anyone still not seeing what could go wrong?

[Jayce]

I can't believe what I'm reading from these 'medical experts' or some of the comments here for that matter...

Who cares if 100.000 vaccinated travellers come in. Chances of them being infected or infectious are slim and the small percentage of people who will be positive will just be a blip compared to the tens of thousands of daily thai cases....

In short, vaccinated tourism isn't going to make matters worse for thailand while having substantial economical upside. Clearly those medical experts don't care about the excess deaths (short, mid and long term) from poverty, only those related to covid.

Should be a no brainer imho...

And yes, of course Thailand should step up their vaccination game pronto, but again, vaccinated tourism isn't going to be the thing that gets them into a greater pickle, lack of vaccination otoh surely will.

Edited October 13, 2021 by Jayce

[Desmondo69]

1 hour ago, Bob20 said:

Don't worry about the resources. They have 8.5m unreliable ATK's. They'll find a way to use those at the airports

If they open too early, the next wave will come regardless. They haven't learned anything from previous dumb decisions.

Then again, the decision makers had good vaccines and boosters. The misery and death elsewhere in the country are just numbers in reports.

And of course someone else to blame for the inevitable increased (unreported) cases

[Bob20]

24 minutes ago, Jayce said:

I can't believe what I'm reading from these 'medical experts' or some of the comments here for that matter...

Who cares if 100.000 vaccinated travellers come in. Chances of them being infected or infectious are slim and the small percentage of people who will be positive will just be a blip compared to the tens of thousands of daily thai cases....

In short, vaccinated tourism isn't going to make matters worse for thailand while having substantial economical upside. Clearly those medical experts don't care about the excess deaths (short, mid and long term) from poverty, only those related to covid.

Should be a no brainer imho...

And yes, of course Thailand should step up their vaccination game pronto, but again, vaccinated tourism isn't going to be the thing that gets them into a greater pickle, lack of vaccination otoh surely will.

No brainer is a correct description for your post.

As has been explained to you before, it is not the foreigners that bring Covid.

It is the movement from anyone that spreads the already present virus around the country. 

At Songkran the country was locked and the movement from only Thais spread the virus with 17.000+ deaths since.

Now, add the movement from foreign tourists, who pick up the virus anywhere, stay symptomless because they had a decent vaccine and travel all around the country passing on the virus while Thai vaccination levels are low with mainly an ineffective vaccine...

Starting to understand yet?

[Malc-Thai]

47 minutes ago, Jayce said:

I can't believe what I'm reading from these 'medical experts' or some of the comments here for that matter...

Who cares if 100.000 vaccinated travellers come in. Chances of them being infected or infectious are slim and the small percentage of people who will be positive will just be a blip compared to the tens of thousands of daily thai cases....

In short, vaccinated tourism isn't going to make matters worse for thailand while having substantial economical upside. Clearly those medical experts don't care about the excess deaths (short, mid and long term) from poverty, only those related to covid.

Should be a no brainer imho...

And yes, of course Thailand should step up their vaccination game pronto, but again, vaccinated tourism isn't going to be the thing that gets them into a greater pickle, lack of vaccination otoh surely will.

The sandbox has had around 140 people found infected on arrival after a negative test to fly.. the daily covid infections now originated from the sandbox opening and mass movement to phuket looking for work and weekends away.. the daily covid count here is below 200 from pcr testing, but there are around 2300 in covid care centres that tested positive with ATK's for many week's, they stay for 14 days then released..  now that number has stood still so it averages out at 165 un recorded covid infections a day . already there is proof that opening up spread covid here just on a little island.. if the rest of the country opens up then mass movement looking for work and to party will do the same..

just a question do you live here ?

Edited October 13, 2021 by Malc-Thai

[Jayce]

16 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

No brainer is a correct description for your post.

As has been explained to you before, it is not the foreigners that bring Covid.

It is the movement from anyone that spreads the already present virus around the country. 

At Songkran the country was locked and the movement from only Thais spread the virus with 17.000+ deaths since.

Now, add the movement from foreign tourists, who pick up the virus anywhere, stay symptomless because they had a decent vaccine and travel all around the country passing on the virus while Thai vaccination levels are low with mainly an ineffective vaccine...

Starting to understand yet?

Oh wow, we haven't even been properly introduced yet Bob and straight in with the insults, congrats on that one. Feel free to point out where you've already explained it to me before btw, because you must have been far from memorable in doing so.

 

You fail to see my point while you actually make it for me at the same time, how's that for irony: people move around, that's what happens, as you rightfully point out that Thais have been moving around during Songkran and have spread Covid as a result. That situation, regardless of Songkran, is still happening on a daily basis. A little additional travel from vaccinated tourists isn't going to affect anything nearly as much as the Thais moving around themselves...

 

Still blinded by the your own smugness enough or are you starting to understand??

[Jayce]

7 minutes ago, Malc-Thai said:

The sandbox has had around 140 people found infected on arrival after a negative test to fly.. the daily covid infections now originated from the sandbox opening and mass movement to phuket looking for work and weekends away.. the daily covid count here is below 200 from pcr testing, but there are around 2300 in covid care centres that tested positive with ATK's for many week's, they stay for 14 days then released..  now that number has stood still so it averages out at 165 un recorded covid infections a day . already there is proof that opening up spread covid here just on a little island.. if the rest of the country opens up then mass movement looking for work and to party will do the same..

just a question do you live here ?

oh wow, 140 daily cases of people infected with the same virus that has been circulating in the (underreported) tens of thousands of Thai on a daily basis. Yeah, that's definitely the cause of a cataclysmic event there, surely not the 10 of thousands of infected Thai moving around, it's all of those 140 tourists that are doing all the damage and are somehow more dangerous to Thai than the Thai themselves. 

In trying to make your point, you have done the exact opposite in reinforcing what I have said...

[Malc-Thai]

2 minutes ago, Jayce said:

oh wow, 140 daily cases of people infected with the same virus that has been circulating in the (underreported) tens of thousands of Thai on a daily basis. Yeah, that's definitely the cause of a cataclysmic event there, surely not the 10 of thousands of infected Thai moving around, it's all of those 140 tourists that are doing all the damage and are somehow more dangerous to Thai than the Thai themselves. 

In trying to make your point, you have done the exact opposite in reinforcing what I have said...

Think you better read my comment again! It's not the tourists they are getting found it's the mass movement on just 1 small island of thais..

[Bob20]

16 minutes ago, Jayce said:

Oh wow, we haven't even been properly introduced yet Bob and straight in with the insults, congrats on that one. Feel free to point out where you've already explained it to me before btw, because you must have been far from memorable in doing so.

You fail to see my point while you actually make it for me at the same time, how's that for irony: people move around, that's what happens, as you rightfully point out that Thais have been moving around during Songkran and have spread Covid as a result. That situation, regardless of Songkran, is still happening on a daily basis. A little additional travel from vaccinated tourists isn't going to affect anything nearly as much as the Thais moving around themselves...

Still blinded by the your own smugness enough or are you starting to understand??

You fail to see that there are still restrictions in place. As another member asked, do you even live here and see what is going on or do you get your knowledge from hearsay?

Since a few weeks some restrictions have been eased (like some interprovincial travel) which has made numbers in for instance Chiang Mai shoot up with area lockdowns.

And if you had seen my posts, I'm not only against international travel, but against all major movements.

We've had restrictions for 19 months. A couple more will make opening up a lot safer (if they get jabbing!). I don't care at all about the few baht from a few people that want to have a bit of sunshine and a party. You can delay that or do that elsewhere, where it's safe.

The dead that inevitably follow from your luxury holiday urges, don't get that choice.

[gummy]

There will of course be a risk, the outcome of which is not known. Taking several steps back then many businesses are now ruined around the world, not just Thsiland so should all countries just open up ?

With the benefit of hindsight consider this. The world is overcrowded so a population reduction is overdue. Is this natures way of acheiving this and humans are interupting an evolutionary process ?

How much this has actual cost the world I suspect is incalcuable in terms of money. But apart from the emotional upset, how much would have disposing of 1.7 billion bodies have cost ? Far far less I suspect. The vunerable would have departed this life with those remaining in accord with natures principles of the survival of the fittest. Now I don't suggest for one moment that is my perdonal view of what should have happened but it is an interesting discussion point, given that Thailand and other places seem to have accepted that opening up at any cost is now the way to go with those decisions purely driven by money. Of course there is still one country not opening up at any cost for money reasons, China.

[Bob20]

9 minutes ago, gummy said:

There will of course be a risk, the outcome of which is not known. Taking several steps back then many businesses are now ruined around the world, not just Thsiland so should all countries just open up ?

With the benefit of hindsight consider this. The world is overcrowded so a population reduction is overdue. Is this natures way of acheiving this and humans are interupting an evolutionary process ?

How much this has actual cost the world I suspect is incalcuable in terms of money. But apart from the emotional upset, how much would have disposing of 1.7 billion bodies have cost ? Far far less I suspect. The vunerable would have departed this life with those remaining in accord with natures principles of the survival of the fittest. Now I don't suggest for one moment that is my perdonal view of what should have happened but it is an interesting discussion point, given that Thailand and other places seem to have accepted that opening up at any cost is now the way to go with those decisions purely driven by money. Of course there is still one country not opening up at any cost for money reasons, China.

Interesting... Or maybe we had too many similar businesses and the human survival response has weeded those out?

Re: China, with 1.4b people, huge land mass and varying ecosystems, they don't rely on much from outside the country in the short or medium term. After decades of double digit growth, they have more than a small nest-egg. Besides, what choice do people have there?

[Jayce]

56 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

You fail to see that there are still restrictions in place.

And those domestic travel restrictions will be out the window at the same point in time as when international arrivals will start being allowed, so your point is???

I'm happy for you to argue reduction in movement, but not in a discriminatory way against vaccinated international travel as at this point of the pandemic that is absolutely unwarranted.

 

56 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

 As another member asked, do you even live here and see what is going on or do you get your knowledge from hearsay?

I don't need to tell you where I live, nor do I feel I need to explain to you my situation or reasons for my argumentation. All I'm happy to say is that it has nothing to do with your default assumption that everyone who wants to visit Thailand is there for a party which is a dramatic oversimplification you seem to enjoy since that's the one that suits your argumentation best.

 

56 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

And if you had seen my posts, I'm not only against international travel, but against all major movements.

As you seem to assume that everyone reads your posts all the time, maybe look for mine instead and you might even find out where I live. I may have disclosed it voluntarily at some point rather than when some random people were trying to coerce me to disclose it. It's great that you've got time to post 2.2k posts here and basically spend your life on this forum but rather than expect everyone else to know who your are and what points you have made in the past, maybe you do the research instead of who you are responding to if you've got so much time to burn.

I myself was just trying to comment on a news article...

Edited October 13, 2021 by Jayce

[gummy]

14 minutes ago, Bob20 said:

Interesting... Or maybe we had too many similar businesses and the human survival response has weeded those out?

Re: China, with 1.4b people, huge land mass and varying ecosystems, they don't rely on much from outside the country in the short or medium term. After decades of double digit growth, they have more than a small nest-egg. Besides, what choice do people have there?

Guess there are still a lot of them around into their 70's and 80's who can remember having only 1 bowl of rice to eat a day until Mao came along and 20 years later they could have 2 bowls. So even today those elderly are possibly grateful so hence to them their system is far better now .

[Bob20]

1 minute ago, gummy said:

Guess there are still a lot of them around into their 70's and 80's who can remember having only 1 bowl of rice to eat a day until Mao came along and 20 years later they could have 2 bowls. So even today those elderly are possibly grateful so hence to them their system is far better now .

Don't you think that's one reason why Xi and Putin have and keep control? Population there is much tougher, know how dire it was before and will happily "take one for their country".

Off topic, but it reminds me of when I was in Shanghai in 2011/2012 and saw how officials painted a cross on houses, meaning the residents were to move within 3 months as the area had been designated for something else. People would move as it was an honour to benefit and further the country.

Wanna try that in Europe?

[El_Trauco]

1 hour ago, gummy said:

There will of course be a risk, the outcome of which is not known.

There actually is data on outcomes after reductions in mitigating measures. It's not pretty. Citations below for those interested.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240877

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7985930/

[gummy]

1 minute ago, El_Trauco said:

There actually is data on outcomes after reductions in mitigating measures. It's not pretty. Citations below for those interested.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240877

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7985930/

There can only be a prediction if outcomes unless you have a crystal ball which is why I said the outcome is not known