Poland - Is the EU starting to crumble

[JohninDublin]

7 hours ago, Smithydog said:

Hi All,

Interesting topic. Let's not spoil it by getting too focussed on the influence or otherwise of non-Europeans. I am sure that all Europeans have the capacity to act as adults and chose the paths they wish to believe is best for their country, group, bloc or whatever.

Some good questions off the top of my head to consider in line with the question posed may be "How strong is their influence as a trading bloc?", "Are they more committed to an European ideal than before or less?", "Which countries and leaders within Europe have the greatest impact and will that change with the retirement of the German Leader?", "How important is a European Parliament and should it exercise more control to maintain the bloc?".

Plenty to discuss outside other countries and Leaders!

Thanks

Moderator

You've got me biting on this line. 

As a trading bloc, the EU exercise immense power. Under the EU constitution, only the EU can negotiate a trade agreement for all member states. Clunky as it seems, there are good reasons for this. If for example, Poland were allowed to negotiate a deal with the US to buy bananas, that might impact on the Swedish banana crop. Thus all deals are scrutinised and the Commission decides through Qualified Majority Voting whether the deal is best for the U as a whole. If they vote for it, the deal is then put before the Parliament and voted on. So if Ruritania wants to do a trade deal with Romania, it has to be done through the EU. There are two obvious reasons why this system is chosen. The first is that the national interests of all member states are considered. The second is to prevent any member state taking advantage of a trade deal where they can freeze other members out.

I am not sure how most other trading blocs work, but I am aware that NAFTA is exclusive to Mexico, Canada and the US. Each country is allowed to negotiate their own deals with non-members, but a trade deal between Mexico and NZ, does not give the Kiwis access to NAFTA.

I am not sure who you are referring to regarding "committed to the European ideal" so I will pass on that one.

Regarding influence, I think it will still be France and Germany. Italy should be there but the political situation is too prone to populism. The UK should also have been there, had they not spent the best part of 30 years starting with Thatcher in being disruptive. Blair's honeymoon ended by siding with Dubya when he referred to France and Germany as "Old Europe" when they refused to get involved in Iraq II. History tells us that France and Germany were right. More to the point, the France and Germany of old Europe would have gone to war for a lot less than this. I can have a certain amount of sympathy for Thatcher on this issue. She was very pro-europe and even campaigned in the 1975 referendum to remain. However, being the only female leader, she often saw her fellow leaders as "patronising", in the same way that some men regard women talking about football. I think the EU made a big mistake in that regard.

The role of the Parliament is relatively limited and in the main, it consists of voting on legislation introduced by the Commission. They also have the power to investigate the Commission or Commissioners. In 1999, following an inquiry into corruption, they forced the entire Commission to resign. I think the power balance with the Parliament is just about right. Any less power, and it becomes easy for the Commissioners to avoid scrutiny. Any more, and there will be those screaming about sovereignty, even if all the MEP's from their country voted in favour of a measure that they didn't like.

As for Merkle, I am an admirer and it somehow seemed apt to me, that when Trump was picking fights with NATO Allies, there were those who referred to her as the "New leader of the free world". I am sure someone will replace her with a similar vision of the future of Europe but maybe it will take some time.

[Benroon]

12 hours ago, palooka said:

I thought that the EU would fall apart when they had the liquidity problem of the P.I.G.S., Portugal, Italy Greece and Spain some years ago.  It was suggested to me, by a corporate banker that I knew, that many of these countries cheated their way into the EU membership. Supposedly for membership you had to show so many billions of dollars or equivalent.  Apparently they all borrowed the money, showed it for membership and then repaid it, after qualifying, with huge interest.That banker retired on the commissions he made from this.

Glad the UK got out, may have short term pain but will come back stronger.

Then your corporate banker didn't know what he was talking about so I'm struggling to believe that story - was it Nick Leeson ? Who would they have borrowed it from ?

You don't need a single penny in the bank but you DO need to show any debt, inflation, and interest rates are under control, and I think you had to at least tie your currency to the Euro for a set period.

 

[JohninDublin]

17 minutes ago, Fester said:

When did the EU send tanks into Budapest to crush an uprising?

Sorry I'm so behind the times! 

You don't need to tell me that.

[Benroon]

11 hours ago, gummy said:

So do you think the EU will survive in the long term  ? 

It will survive but who knows in what format. The fact that no set of accounts has ever been signed off is a disgrace and the gravy train is at full steam (see the Kinnocks) but there is safety in numbers and your bargaining chip is much greater. The EU is the largest (richest) trading block on the planet so piss them off carefully.

The UK is now competing (and annoying) a competitor with a GDP 6 times bigger. If the EU chose to it could scupper numerous UK trade deals at will by simply using its clout to undercut them. (Hilariously when Bojo and the hapless Liz Truss is trying to put lipstick on a pig with their 58 new post brexit deals - 56 were rollovers !)

It was a silly move made by people who didn't have a clue what they were doing (the ones who weren't doing it from a xenophobic point of view that is), whipped up by quality publications like The Sun which has pulled the rug from under the UK youth, who didn't want it and will be left to pick up the pieces, grandad and grandma pissed on their chips !

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Rookiescot said:

Its nice that you are laughing. However you do not seem to be addressing the points I made.

Or points made by most others. I think he is on a Saturday afternoon stroll.

[Benroon]

8 hours ago, Fester said:

I usually find that nutjob best describes those that pull out the race card like a kiddies six-shooter.

What is a refugee and who qualifies as such? Poland and Hungary only want geuine refugees but the evidence so far is that many who have arrived in Europe are not in that category. 

The right to EU freedom of movement for its own member citizens does not apply to those from outside the EU.

Polish and Hungarian people just being in the UK was not a primary driver of the Brexit victory.  

To suggest racism didn't play a part in brexit is naive in the extreme. it was comfortably the No 1 driving force. There is nothing wrong in 'playing that card' when appropriate and in this case it is entirely appropriate. However you can't easily unearth people who will admit it, in public anyway due to the fact most racists are cowards!

The last sentence also shows more naivety IMO - how many times did you hear 'taking our jobs' ? usually espoused by overweight slobs from the sofa spending their handouts - but now no-one is doing those jobs, the brits can't get fuel, supermarket shelves are empty and even Tim Wetherspoon the arch brexit supporter is begging for the migrants to come back before his business goes under as he can't find brits to get out of bed to take their place. Migrants are being chartered in to pick veg and Bojo is personally begging HGV drivers to come from Europe. It's an entirely predictable clusterf*** but The Sun won the day !

Its backfiring but you're never going to get anyone to admit that.

Do I think the EU is a polished model ? Good god no it has serious issues - but the brits were lied to on a gigantic scale and they fell for it and are now currently paying for it. I challenge anyone to tell me why that is short term (with facts, not soundbites or wishful thinking - thats Bojo's job!)

[Benroon]

8 hours ago, mickkotlarski said:

When nations decide that they will handle their own affairs and seek independence from the totalitarian house of Babel. It is a victory for democracy. After years of Nazi and then Soviet shackles many nations are looking to govern themselves. The EU is collapsing. Dictatorships are not sustainable.

The ASEAN countries don't interfere in each others business. Yet have a zone in which discussions can he held in mutual cooperation.

Should Poland and others such as Italy, Hungary and lately France decide to become democratic again this would be a big loss for the globalist left and its woke mongering followers.  

Who is more prosperous ? The EU or ASEAN ?

(I am definitely not on the left).

[Benroon]

56 minutes ago, JohninDubin said:

Rather than try to campaign for the troll of the month award, if there is an error, why not enlighten us with your "wisdom".

To be fair I think young Fester is trying to push water uphill so soundbites and quips are so much easier to find than substance - go easy on him 

[JohninDublin]

3 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Thats the thing. Ask any Brexiteer WHICH laws the EU passed which directly effected them and they will all say freedom of movement.

Just to expand upon your point, Freedom of Movement is not an EU law. It's a treaty obligation.

And that takes me to a point that I have often made. In the run-up to the 2016 vote, I came across many people who complained that they didn't like foreigners upon them. Every time I came across this, I always asked the question: Which of these laws are you objecting to and how has it adversely impacted. A few said, "Free Movement". You can imagine their response when they discovered there was no such law.

I then went on to tell them about some of these laws, also pointing out that if we left the EU, these could be repealed. One such law which was introduced following Maastricht, was the right to Holiday Pay. Believe it or not, there was no statutory right to this until Maastricht. It was solely at your employers discretion. Even if you had a contract of employment stating "4 weeks paid hols", there was nothing to stop your employer sticking a new weaker offer under your nose, and if you refused to sign it, he could give you notice to quit. Naturally, when I asked did they want to see that law repealed, nobody ever did.

Some of the other laws that were introduced by the EU, included employers not being able to fire you if you refused to work more than 48 hours in a week. Health and Product Safety. Consumer Protection. Credit card protections etc. One particular piece of EU legislation that I am in awe of is European Community Whole Vehicle Type Approval. Since the early 50's when there 2 mill vehicles on UK roads, until we joined in 1973 by which time there were 20 mill, road deaths remained static at 6k a year. Once this was introduced road deaths fell sharply until it reached 2k by 1990. That one EU law has saved over 100k lives in the UK alone.

There have also been laws passed regarding passenger rights for flights that never existed before. This includes the right to compensation for delayed flights and baggage. One other area that is worth a mention, is that in the age of the internet, when you are likely to get involved in cross border consumer transactions, they have introduced a cross border Small Claims Court procedure which allows a complainant to have such matters heard in their own country and in their own language at a fixed fee of €25 and claims are limited to €25k. In the UK domestic small claims cases are limited to £5k. So you buy something online in France, and the vendor doesn't deliver, you can file online to get justice. Before that, it would have been a question of "Well I know I've lost £700, but It will probably cost me more than that to pay a French Lawyer, and I can't speak the lingo. Best to chalk it up to experience".

I think most of those who were misinformed about the evil lawmakers of Brussels, made the mistake of never noticing that when the media talked about this, they never noticed that the media actually never identified any of these laws, and relied on the ignorance of the public not to notice this.

Finally, as I said earlier, once we left the EU, these laws were subject to repeal. Did anyone notice how a couple weeks ago, the UK lifted the ban on UK mobile roaming charges? I am not sure who this benefits other than airtime providers.

[JohninDublin]

1 hour ago, Benroon said:

The UK is now competing (and annoying) a competitor with a GDP 6 times bigger. If the EU chose to it could scupper numerous UK trade deals at will by simply using its clout to undercut them. (Hilariously when Bojo and the hapless Liz Truss is trying to put lipstick on a pig with their 58 new post brexit deals - 56 were rollovers !)

Unfortunately, I can only vote once for your post.

I am reminded of Liam Fox, the Trade Sec under May who was tasked with getting new trade deals. He said, "This will be the easiest thing in history". Time being of the essence, he took the 100 largest deals that had been signed by the EU, modified the text to replace the EU with UK and did a "cut and paste job". He then went back to the original signatories and said, "Sign here please".

Of the 100, by the time Bojo had replaced May after three years, he had manage to rollover just 12 countries. Most took the attitude, "Just because we gave the EU such a deal, doesn't mean we will make you the same offer. You need us more than we need you".

Just one other point about the signing off of accounts: This gives a more accurate description: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36276175

[cowslip]

There are various countries at various stages of the process of joining the EU. So even if a couple of countries left the membership is still growing.

Oddly enough even amn=onst the hard right in many countries in the U there is little support for actually leaving.

 

I think Brexiteers tend to have a rather distorted view of other countries opinions on this, presumably because they are hoping that there are a few others in the EU as stupid as they are?

[PBS]

10 hours ago, mickkotlarski said:

Absolutely!!! Its called CNN.

Provide relevant links, otherwise one can only conclude you cannot backup your claims in your post #78834.

[palooka]

5 hours ago, Benroon said:

Then your corporate banker didn't know what he was talking about so I'm struggling to believe that story - was it Nick Leeson ? Who would they have borrowed it from ?

You don't need a single penny in the bank but you DO need to show any debt, inflation, and interest rates are under control, and I think you had to at least tie your currency to the Euro for a set period.

 

Countries wishing to join need to have:

• stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
• a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;
• the ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of...
• A functioning market economy cannot happen if the country is broke, so your stement that they do not need a penny in the bank is..... Leave that adjective to your imagination.            The money was borrowed from a group of corporate banks for a very high interest for a short period of time.
•  

 

[palooka]

5 hours ago, Benroon said:

Then your corporate banker didn't know what he was talking about so I'm struggling to believe that story - was it Nick Leeson ? Who would they have borrowed it from ?

You don't need a single penny in the bank but you DO need to show any debt, inflation, and interest rates are under control, and I think you had to at least tie your currency to the Euro for a set period.

 

Greece admits fudging euro entry
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40527000/jpg/_40527313_greeceafp203b.jpg Greece's finance minister has vowed to tackle the deficit Greece has admitted it joined the euro in 2001 on the basis of figures that showed its budget deficit to be much lower than it really was. Eurozone states are expected to have deficits below 3% of gross domestic product but revised data show Greece has exceeded that limit since 1999. The figures are being discussed at a meeting between EU finance ministers. Greece's membership of the single currency would not, however, be questioned, the EU has said. Greek press reports suggest the country's budget deficit in 1999 was 3.38%. 'Double standards' Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, visited Athens last week to examine Greece's budget figures. Greece had already said that its public deficit breached the European Union cap between 2000 and 2003, as the cost of hosting the 2004 summer Olympics reached 7bn euros (£4.8bn).   http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif [East European] countries will say the European Central Bank wants them to be holier than the Popehttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif Katinka Barysch Chief economist, Centre for European Reform But Greece's finance ministry had claimed that the country's 1999 deficit, on the basis of which Greece was allowed to join the euro in 2001, was below the limit. "It has been proven that Greece's budget deficit never fell below 3% since 1999," finance minister George Alogoskoufis admitted on Monday. Katinka Barysch, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said the announcement would not be a surprise for Brussels insiders. "Quite a few member states did something similar because of the political imperative to join the euro as soon as possible. Greece has just gone a bit further," she said. France and Germany have previously defied the 3% limit. With the European Central Bank (ECB) currently telling East European member states that want to join the euro that they must strictly adhere to the 3% rule, the EU risks being accused of double standards, Ms Barysch said. "These countries will say the ECB wants them to be holier than the Pope," she added. A decision on possible disciplinary action against Greece is not expected until December.   http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/email.gifE-mail this to a friend http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/print.gifPrintable version	http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif	SEE ALSO: Greece vows to cut budget deficit 05 Nov 04 |  Business Deficit woe for Greece post-games 02 Nov 04 |  Business Greek debt spirals after Olympics 12 Sep 04 |  Business Olympic costs hit Greek deficit 04 Aug 04 |  Business Olympics 'may cost Greece dear' 02 Jun 04 |  Business Greek budget mess earns EU rebuke 20 May 04 |  Business http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/line_seealso.gif http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif RELATED INTERNET LINKS: Greek Ministry of Finance European Central Bank Eurostat Centre for European Reform The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif TOP BUSINESS STORIES Strong demand boosts Intel profit Rio resumes Australia investment Unemployment dips to 2.47 million http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/v3/feed.gif| News feeds

 

[AussieBob]

8 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

What concerns me about Trump, is how he gets particularly friendly with those countries that are prepared to give the EU a hard time. As I've already said, the person who is going to benefit most from a fractured EU, is Putin, and Trump has been an enabler for him.

I've yet to hear anyone explain how our best interests and that of Putin converge.

Ditto my comment to someone else that you responded to - Trump is living rent free in your head - time to let it go. Trump is gone and may never return, so let it go. But the 2022 half-elections and the 2024 election is going to be very entertaining if Trump makes another run at things. So many things that would be fun to watch and then to see the reactions - not the least being the 'debates'.  If he does make another run and gets anywhere, then by all means let it rip against Trump, until then let it go.

[Soidog]

16 hours ago, PBS said:

I am voicing my POV. I will not accept right of centre politics and the evil that goes with it nor do I accept you and others efforts to censor. You and others obviously accept and in some cases support right of centre ideology, which I view as a gross error of judgement both morally and ethically - end of.

Why is right of centre any more unacceptable than left of centre? Or are you suggesting politics should only result in a totally centre ground government? Extreme right wing governments are just as dangerous as extreme left wing governments, but there is nothing wrong with right of centre.  

[AussieBob]

36 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Why is right of centre any more unacceptable than left of centre? Or are you suggesting politics should only result in a totally centre ground government? Extreme right wing governments are just as dangerous as extreme left wing governments, but there is nothing wrong with right of centre.  

Unfortunately soidog there are many people these days that do not understand that in politics it is a matter of opinion. They truly believe that their 'opinion' is fact, and that all other opinions are false and wrong and must be shut down. There is not a perfect form of Government - never has been and never will be - it is always a matter of compromise, but some people refuse to compromise.  Climate Change is a classic example - the opinion that we must 'save the planet or we are going to be extinct soon' very quickly hits against the opinion that 'nuclear fission generated electricity is evil/bad'.  So when countries like France and USA who make a lot of electricity using clean non-polluting nuclear fission say they are going to reduce carbon emissions (more nuclear etc.), the nutters demand countries like Australia (0% nuclear) do the same - now!! 

[Rookiescot]

9 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

I wish you were right about Poland being made to "toe the line", but there is nothing in the EU constitution that allows expulsion of a member state.

You are right. However article 7 allows sanctions against a member state. How severe those sanctions could be against a country or indeed individual is a matter of speculation though. 

[mickkotlarski]

2 hours ago, PBS said:

Provide relevant links, otherwise one can only conclude you cannot backup your claims in your post #78834.

I'm not in the habit of childish back and forth bickering. Nor do I keep linked articles to prove what is factual.

But Junckers appointment sums it up fully and his reaction to comments made by Nigel Farage exposing him in front of his own council. As I said nations have a right to govern themselves.

Good thing you're not a magistrate.

[mickkotlarski]

7 hours ago, Benroon said:

Who is more prosperous ? The EU or ASEAN ?

(I am definitely not on the left).

I think more over. Who was more prosperous before these blocs existed. Don't need to be on the left to figure it out.

[PBS]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

Why is right of centre any more unacceptable than left of centre? Or are you suggesting politics should only result in a totally centre ground government? Extreme right wing governments are just as dangerous as extreme left wing governments, but there is nothing wrong with right of centre.  

OP is in relation to the Polish government which is currently on course to 'right of centre' authoritarian governance; irrelevant to talk to left of centre etc.

[PBS]

2 minutes ago, mickkotlarski said:

I'm not in the habit of childish back and forth bickering. Nor do I keep linked articles to prove what is factual.

But Junckers appointment sums it up fully and his reaction to comments made by Nigel Farage exposing him in front of his own council. As I said nations have a right to govern themselves.

Good thing you're not a magistrate.

What's that to do with the OP? However, Farage's response to an authoritarian party in Poland is his usual vomit inducing support for right of centre politics.

[gummy]

2 hours ago, AussieBob said:

Ditto my comment to someone else that you responded to - Trump is living rent free in your head - time to let it go. Trump is gone and may never return, so let it go. But the 2022 half-elections and the 2024 election is going to be very entertaining if Trump makes another run at things. So many things that would be fun to watch and then to see the reactions - not the least being the 'debates'.  If he does make another run and gets anywhere, then by all means let it rip against Trump, until then let it go.

Trump has nothing to do with this thread. I will again ask everybody to stick to the thread and avoid introducing anything irrelevant  namely Trump, American politics, Bannon, etc etc or anything else that belongs in the rubbish bin. Many thanks guys for your cooperation as this thread with such a diverse amount of opinions is getting quite interesting and in some case informative. Many of the factual items, note I say factual, are  I am sure of interest to many.

[mickkotlarski]

2 minutes ago, PBS said:

What's that to do with the OP? However, Farage's response to an authoritarian party in Poland is his usual vomit inducing support for right of centre politics.

You sent links from far left wing websites that conveniently called out Trump while conveniently leaving out Obama's support to break down national borders. Poland has the balls to stand up to imperialism by not bowing down to EU pressure. Good on them. Figures from news sources with all kinds of political leanings are showing more support for Euro skepticism for good reason. 

On the subject of which Barack Obama himself has now openly criticized his own parties actions with regard to the US border.

Tell Thailand (or virtually any country) that they must now accept say 500000 Somalians or face penalties and then be branded as racist if they refuse to accept migrant/invaders. What you call vomit is people voicing   their want that  their homes  stay in tact.

The true authoritarian is the EU. Sorry old boy but nations should have the right to govern themselves.

[palooka]

9 hours ago, Benroon said:

Then your corporate banker didn't know what he was talking about so I'm struggling to believe that story - was it Nick Leeson ? Who would they have borrowed it from ?

You don't need a single penny in the bank but you DO need to show any debt, inflation, and interest rates are under control, and I think you had to at least tie your currency to the Euro for a set period.

Top EU banks guilty of multi-billion tax fraud (euobserver.com) https://euobserver.com/economic/143162

The EU banks aren't as squeeky clean as you seem to think, quite on the nose really. 

Edited October 10, 2021 by palooka
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