News Forum - If vaccinations continue as planned, Health Ministry says Covid could be “under control” by January

[Thaiger]

The Public Health Ministry has announced that if vaccinations continue at the expected rate, the Covid-19 crisis in Thailand could be essentially “under control” by January 1. As the number of vaccines available steadily increases, the hope is that higher rates of vaccination in the country will allow Thailand’s vital tourism industry to reopen further. The ministry’s permanent secretary, Kiattiphum Wongrajit, says people in Thailand might be able to resume their daily activities, under what’s considered “new normal” measures by the start of next year. “If the vaccination rate continues as planned, by January 1 the Covid-19 situation in Thailand […]

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[Stonker]

17 minutes ago, Thaiger said:

The Public Health Ministry has announced that if vaccinations continue at the expected rate, the Covid-19 crisis in Thailand could be essentially “under control” by January 1. 

So until at least January 1, the Covid-19 crisis in Thailand will essentially be out of control.

... I'm not sure that's the message the TAT want to hear .....

[Paco]

Alert, alert clown speaking...

 

Tired of hearing or reading this.... with condition they apply it will stay quiet.... 'tourism industry to reopen'

[Thommo]

I guess he could be right.  I am assuming he is referring to Janury 2023

[Bob20]

3 minutes ago, Thommo said:

I guess he could be right.  I am assuming he is referring to Janury 2023

Still an optimist then

[Guevara]

It's good news is if comes to fruition. My reservation is the use of the words 'could' and 'should'. If they really get their act together they might reach the required percentages by the end of 2021. It's wishful thinking on my part but I'd like to think they can reach their target before the end of this year.

[Malc-Thai]

51 minutes ago, Guevara said:

It's good news is if comes to fruition. My reservation is the use of the words 'could' and 'should'. If they really get their act together they might reach the required percentages by the end of 2021. It's wishful thinking on my part but I'd like to think they can reach their target before the end of this year.

Sadly they're still pumping sinovac into people then having to give an astra or alternative booster early.. albeit 20% experimental dose in phuket.. all these extra doses must take their toll on the rollout..

[Bob20]

January sounds possible.

Just not in Thailand.

[ThailandRyan]

Can't they just pick one spokesman who can speak on all matters Thailand instead of the many mouthpieces who open mouth and insert foot.....

2 hours ago, Thaiger said:

The ministry’s permanent secretary, Kiattiphum Wongrajit, says people in Thailand might be able to resume their daily activities, under what’s considered “new normal” measures by the start of next year. “If the vaccination rate continues as planned, by January 1 the Covid-19 situation in Thailand

If the vaccination rate continues, has the man been paying attention or is he just daft.

[Jason]

At last I have actually seen a vaccination report out of Thailand!!!!!!!!! I thought it was a national secret or something. But without a rate of vaccination of 80% (second dose) or better....it probably will be 2023 before ny sense of normality returns.

[sputnik]

2 hours ago, Thommo said:

I guess he could be right.  I am assuming he is referring to Janury 2023

with sinovac this will never happen...cause once they all vaccinated with the general first choice of making extra money they will discover that they all received covid

[Soidog]

It depends what they mean by “under control”. Many countries have fully vaccinated levels at 80%+ and still have large numbers of infections, although hospitalisations and deaths are relatively low compared to pre-vaccination. If Thailand are happy to live with 30,000 a day infected and 100 deaths a day, then I guess that’s “under control” if on the other hand they are expecting 10 or 20 cases and just a couple of deaths per day, then it’s never going to happen.  

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

26 minutes ago, Soidog said:

It depends what they mean by “under control”. Many countries have fully vaccinated levels at 80%+ and still have large numbers of infections, although hospitalisations and deaths are relatively low compared to pre-vaccination. If Thailand are happy to live with 30,000 a day infected and 100 deaths a day, then I guess that’s “under control” if on the other hand they are expecting 10 or 20 cases and just a couple of deaths per day, then it’s never going to happen.  

About 1500 Thais die every day so 100 extra, mostly elderly and already quite weak would not make much difference. This is overwhelmingly the pandemic of elderly, over 60 years olds.

[Soidog]

11 minutes ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

About 1500 Thais die every day so 100 extra, mostly elderly and already quite weak would not make much difference. This is overwhelmingly the pandemic of elderly, over 60 years olds.

Oh well, that’s all right then! As long as it’s not you or a loved one, then who cares right? 

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

9 minutes ago, Soidog said:

Oh well, that’s all right then! As long as it’s not you or a loved one, then who cares right? 

If we use the same "what about if it is somebody you know"-logic with traffic accidents nobody would be allowed to drive in Thailand. 22000 deaths per year.

Economies cannot shutdown like this without even worse consequences in the long term. A lot of Thais are already indebted heavily just to stay afloat. A lot of people are flat out broke and becoming more desperate each passing day. 

[Soidog]

30 minutes ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

If we use the same "what about if it is somebody you know"-logic with traffic accidents nobody would be allowed to drive in Thailand. 22000 deaths per year.

Economies cannot shutdown like this without even worse consequences in the long term. A lot of Thais are already indebted heavily just to stay afloat. A lot of people are flat out broke and becoming more desperate each passing day. 

No, if we use the same kind of logic about deaths on the roads in Thailand,  we should all be saying what a total disgrace it is and keeping pressure on authorise to fix it. Not simply accept the carnage anymore than we should accept 100 deaths a day from a virus. A virus by the way, that if you leave unchecked and rampant could mutate in to something that is much worse. A virus that if left unchecked could result in thousands of factories, schools and other sectors closing due to staff shortages. That’s what kills an economy. 90% of the Thai economy is functioning just fine. It’s the tourism and hospitality sector that’s crippled. If you don’t keep deadly diseases in check then you do have a major economic impact. 

[JohninDublin]

43 minutes ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

If we use the same "what about if it is somebody you know"-logic with traffic accidents nobody would be allowed to drive in Thailand. 22000 deaths per year.

Economies cannot shutdown like this without even worse consequences in the long term. A lot of Thais are already indebted heavily just to stay afloat. A lot of people are flat out broke and becoming more desperate each passing day. 

I can see where you are coming from, but isn't it a fact of life that in TH, so many of the people are just one unforeseen event away from disaster? So the powers that be may have to make a decision of, "Do we hurt individuals by having lockdowns, or do we hurt the rest of the population by not bringing this under control"?

This is a country that has 18% of it's GDP dependent on tourism, and next to nothing in the way of a welfare state. Covid makes these two factors irreconcilable. 

[JamesE]

9 hours ago, Thaiger said:

under what’s considered “new normal” measures by the start of next year.

The devil is in the details.

[JackIsAGoodBoy]

1 hour ago, Soidog said:

.A virus by the way, that if you leave unchecked and rampant could mutate in to something that is much worse.

That is pure BS, you have not really done your homework with this. Pandemic viruses always eventually progress towards milder versions because that way it wins the race against deadlier mutants that kill the hosts. Killed host means no more pathways forward for spreading while the milder version could infect 5-10 people more and so on. That milder version also provides immunity against the deadlier one.

But leaky vaccines could lead to deadlier mutants because it guides the virus evolution to a different pathway, instead of that of milder versions. Marek's vaccine with chickens for example.

Edited October 8, 2021 by JackIsAGoodBoy

[Lawyers_Guns_and_Money]

55 minutes ago, JamesE said:

The devil is in the details.

I heard the devil is in the jab too. That pesky bugger is everywhere!

[Lawyers_Guns_and_Money]

2 hours ago, JohninDubin said:

I can see where you are coming from, but isn't it a fact of life that in TH, so many of the people are just one unforeseen event away from disaster? So the powers that be may have to make a decision of, "Do we hurt individuals by having lockdowns, or do we hurt the rest of the population by not bringing this under control"?

This is a country that has 18% of it's GDP dependent on tourism, and next to nothing in the way of a welfare state. Covid makes these two factors irreconcilable. 

It's a fact of life that the entire population of the planet (flat or round) is one unforseen event away from disaster. I was not against lockdowns in the United States at the beginning of the pandemic, but they didn't work. I am not opposed to wearing a mask when indoors, but it only takes a few unmasked people to void any benefit. There are vaccinations now to help reduce serious illness. If a country or city's hospital system is functioning at normal capacity, then it is time to move forward. We are in constant "Analysis Paralysis". We know what the virus does, we know the early signs of symptoms, and we know who is vulnerable. We can either chose to stay in this spot or move forward and make informed decisions. 

Edited October 8, 2021 by Lawyers_Guns_and_Money
Typo

[Soidog]

1 hour ago, JackIsAGoodBoy said:

That is pure BS, you have not really done your homework with this. Pandemic viruses always eventually progress towards milder versions because that way it wins the race against deadlier mutants that kill the hosts. Killed host means no more pathways forward for spreading while the milder version could infect 5-10 people more and so on. That milder version also provides immunity against the deadlier one.

But leaky vaccines could lead to deadlier mutants because it guides the virus evolution to a different pathway, instead of that of milder versions. Marek's vaccine with chickens for example.

Oh well. Let it rip and let it kill another 4,8,12 million. You have the answer and yet all of the worlds scientists, economists, business leaders and politicians, and I, disagree. Good luck to you. Thankfully your view will not prevail. 

[Soidog]

31 minutes ago, Lawyers_Guns_and_Money said:

It's a fact of life that the entire population of the planet (flat or round) is one unforseen event away from disaster. I was not against lockdowns in the United States at the beginning of the pandemic, but they didn't work. I am not opposed to wearing a mask when indoors, but it only takes a few unmasked people to void any benefit. There are vaccinations now to help reduce serious illness. If a country or city's hospital system is functioning at normal capacity, then it is time to move forward. We are in constant "Analysis Paralysis". We know what the virus does, we know the early signs of symptoms, and we know who is vulnerable. We can either chose to stay in this spot or move forward and make informed decisions. 

But we are moving forward. In places where vaccination is high, they are moving forward. The countries are open and economies are moving forward. Thailand is some 6 months behind the curve but it’s getting there. 

[JohninDublin]

15 minutes ago, Lawyers_Guns_and_Money said:

It's a fact of life that the entire population of the planet (flat or round) is one unforseen event away from disaster. I was not against lockdowns in the United States at the beginning of the pandemic, but they didn't work. I am not opposed to wearing a mask when indoors, but it only takes a few unmasked people to void any benefit. There are vaccinations now to help reduce serious illness. If a country or city's hospital system is functioning at normal capacity, then it is time to move forward. We are in constant "Analysis Paralysis". We know what the virus does, we know the early signs of symptoms, and we know who is vulnerable. We can either chose to stay in this spot or move forward and make informed decisions. 

But there are degrees of unforeseen events. If the engine on my car blows up tomorrow, I can afford to replace it or the car. If you're a TH street vendor, how many could readily afford to replace the bike they use to move their wares around on? And so with Covid, I live in a state with a good safety net, though I have not had to resort to it. The same could not be said for most Thais. The reality is that the likelihood of myself and a Thai suffering the same unforeseen event such as Covid, and him being wiped out financially while I just shrug off such an event is very real.

As for the failure of the US lockdown, I think much of that can be laid at the door of Trump, with many of his supporters making non-wearing of masks, flouting social distancing and lockdown advice, a political statement. It is no coincidence that red states suffered greater harm per-capita than blue states. 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-has-hit-people-in-republican-led-states-hardest-study-finds

In my view, the problem is not of "analysis paralysis", but the failure of a large section of the US public failing to recognise that, "We are all in this together". I saw a news report concerning a school board meeting in Tennessee where teachers were advocating for a mask mandate for all pupils were being harangued and harassed by parents and made the butt of comments such as, "We know where you live". I don't think the Jehovah's Witnesses ever got that rabid when courts mandated that one of their kids were to have a blood transfusion.

There is a very well known military saying, "No plan survives first contact with the enemy". I think when it's the "enemy within", that goes double. 

 

[RickInRetirement]

Here in America, the majority of covid cases are now among the vaccinated. The vaccines are lessening the effects of covid, but not stopping the disease here. Don't be compacent when most are vaccinated or it will return again. Surviving covid provides the highest level of immunity. There are also alternative treatments once you get covid (like India is using) but we are not allowed to talk about those under the new regime.