Collapse of China

[Andrew Reeve]

We are not interested if some of you do not get on and leave those conversations off this thread.

I have removed a lot of negative posts directed at members and if there is a continuation, warnings will be issued.

Topic of the Thread is:

Collapse of China

[Convert54]

2 hours ago, gummy said:

Oh dear, more predictions from US companies.  I think Enid Blyton would be just as accurate had she been alive.

I am trying to understand the almost hysterical and adamant convictions expressed  by some that the possible failure of Evergrande is somehow a more insidious and threatening example typical  of China when in reality it mimics the over extension by a company in speculative expectations in a capitalistic style market .

There are constant references to Chinese (CCP?)propaganda and fairy tales yet no examples provided in support yet "I know but you do not"  which I have come to assume is derived from commercial failure and the sour grapes it has invoked.

In contrast there is lot touted about concerns of China disrupting commercial shipping supply routes which to my knowledge they have never done, while quoting Chinese objections to constant military Naval excursions by nationalities directed by a specific nation remote to the region as if is a form of  aggression that requires subduing.

The majority of propaganda strikes me as a very western campaign to tame the beast it fed and raised while continuing to milk it as dry as long as remains feasible until such time as it is convenient to contrive a war.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gummy]

Just now, Convert54 said:

I am trying to understand the almost hysterical and adamant convictions expressed  by some that the possible failure of Evergrande is somehow a more insidious and threatening example typical  of China when in reality it mimics the over extension by a company in speculative expectations in a capitalistic style market .

There are constant references to Chinese (CCP?)propaganda and fairy tales yet no examples provided in support yet "I know but you do not"  which I have come to assume is derived from commercial failure and the sour grapes it has invoked.

In contrast there is lot touted about concerns of China disrupting commercial shipping supply routes which to my knowledge they have never done, while quoting Chinese objections to constant military Naval excursions by nationalities directed by a specific nation remote to the region as if is a form of  aggression that requires subduing.

The majority of propaganda strikes me as a very western campaign to tame the beast it fed and raised while continuing to milk it as dry as long as remains feasible until such time as it is convenient to contrive a war.

Yes  I have mentioned this before that the economic rise of Chine was due to the greed of the Western companies for cheaply produced goods to maximise their profits. Now of course that China is on the brink of becoming the worlds preeminent economy they suddenly don't like where their greed got them. Funny that.

[Poolie]

10 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

I am trying to understand the almost hysterical and adamant convictions expressed  by some that the possible failure of Evergrande is somehow a more insidious and threatening example typical  of China when in reality it mimics the over extension by a company in speculative expectations in a capitalistic style market .

There are constant references to Chinese (CCP?)propaganda and fairy tales yet no examples provided in support yet "I know but you do not"  which I have come to assume is derived from commercial failure and the sour grapes it has invoked.

In contrast there is lot touted about concerns of China disrupting commercial shipping supply routes which to my knowledge they have never done, while quoting Chinese objections to constant military Naval excursions by nationalities directed by a specific nation remote to the region as if is a form of  aggression that requires subduing.

The majority of propaganda strikes me as a very western campaign to tame the beast it fed and raised while continuing to milk it as dry as long as remains feasible until such time as it is convenient to contrive a war.

It's because there are no examples to be given. They're all in Mandarin which the western media is too idle or too incompetent to translate. At best they'll take a translation and cherry pick it to make it sound dire.

There's long been a push against China in the west but look who laughs last. Even in parts no too far from here we get the zero sum Chinese  tourists. Well guess what? The Thai government certainly want them. Ah but, they're all related. So you can respond but they've all got their answers ready, they're like a crowd of schoolboys pre-exam. Well drilled from the bar stool lecturers.

As to shipping, the western press always quote the South China Sea as the place where x miilion tons of shipping transverses annually. They omit to add that 85% of it is Chinese, convenient eh?

China will continue on it's serene  path and reap its rewards in due course and of course the Americans with their NED will continue to act aghast. They've had to drop the Xinjiang case as not only unproveable but also unlikely since China started playing them at their own game and sent them on their way with a flea in their ear and in HK America failed also. Their poster boy Joshua Wong is in clink and still has cases to answer. Keep an eye on the Bangkok situation because they're involved there but losing.

They daren't contrive a war with China, they'd get eaten. They couldn't handle the goat herders in Afghanistan so what chance have they got against a highly trained Army?

[Stardust]

2 minutes ago, Poolie said:

It's because there are no examples to be given. They're all in Mandarin which the western media is too idle or too incompetent to translate. At best they'll take a translation and cherry pick it to make it sound dire.

There's long been a push against China in the west but look who laughs last. Even in parts no too far from here we get the zero sum Chinese  tourists. Well guess what? The Thai government certainly want them. Ah but, they're all related. So you can respond but they've all got their answers ready, they're like a crowd of schoolboys pre-exam. Well drilled from the bar stool lecturers.

As to shipping, the western press always quote the South China Sea as the place where x miilion tons of shipping transverses annually. They omit to add that 85% of it is Chinese, convenient eh?

China will continue on it's serene  path and reap its rewards in due course and of course the Americans with their NED will continue to act aghast. They've had to drop the Xinjiang case as not only unproveable but also unlikely since China started playing them at their own game and sent them on their way with a flea in their ear and in HK America failed also. Their poster boy Joshua Wong is in clink and still has cases to answer. Keep an eye on the Bangkok situation because they're involved there but losing.

They daren't contrive a war with China, they'd get eaten. They couldn't handle the goat herders in Afghanistan so what chance have they got against a highly trained Army?

What a crap and because of the mighty chinese army it was so easy for the japanese and Germans to take China. Just look at the chinese aircraft carrier whst an joke. Chinese nit even have gps and their space navigation is over european companies. Chinese have no own tech or innovative. But to understand that what this means you need to understand a bit of tech and engineering. For every european engineer the chinese capacities are a loughing stock. There is no chinese tech not in any train or aircraft

 

 

[Stardust]

The iceberg getting bigger

 

 

 

[Stardust]

Loosing the sense of reality is a serious matter as it happened to some posters and not realizing knowing and knowledge is not the same as believing and to realuzing that millions in a daily basis have to deal with China in one way or another (for their companies) and know exactly whats going on in the reality and the standards and situation because its their job. Thats the difference between experience and fairy tale China propaganda.

[Fester]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

It's because there are no examples to be given. They're all in Mandarin which the western media is too idle or too incompetent to translate. At best they'll take a translation and cherry pick it to make it sound dire.

There's long been a push against China in the west but look who laughs last. Even in parts no too far from here we get the zero sum Chinese  tourists. Well guess what? The Thai government certainly want them. Ah but, they're all related. So you can respond but they've all got their answers ready, they're like a crowd of schoolboys pre-exam. Well drilled from the bar stool lecturers.

As to shipping, the western press always quote the South China Sea as the place where x miilion tons of shipping transverses annually. They omit to add that 85% of it is Chinese, convenient eh?

China will continue on it's serene  path and reap its rewards in due course and of course the Americans with their NED will continue to act aghast. They've had to drop the Xinjiang case as not only unproveable but also unlikely since China started playing them at their own game and sent them on their way with a flea in their ear and in HK America failed also. Their poster boy Joshua Wong is in clink and still has cases to answer. Keep an eye on the Bangkok situation because they're involved there but losing.

They daren't contrive a war with China, they'd get eaten. They couldn't handle the goat herders in Afghanistan so what chance have they got against a highly trained Army?

85%? Can you demonstrate that, or is that too inconvenient?

[Stardust]

6 minutes ago, Fester said:

85%? Can you demonstrate that, or is that too inconvenient?

For sure he cannot because it is all fantasy. Sure no Australia, USA, Japan, south Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Phillipines, Indonesia, India, Europe, Emirates, Africa, Canada, south America who is shipping there. He has lost any sense of reality. He really thinks the fairy tales are the reality of the world. 

[Fluke]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

 

There's long been a push against China in the west but look who laughs last. Even in parts no too far from here we get the zero sum Chinese  tourists. Well guess what? The Thai government certainly want them. . 

Did you miss the bit where the Thai Gov banned "Zero Baht" Chinese tourists and closed all the Chinese hotels and travel agents and convisgated their boats and told them not to come unless they pay into the local economy ?

[Stardust]

5 hours ago, Fluke said:

Did you miss the bit where the Thai Gov banned "Zero Baht" Chinese tourists and closed all the Chinese hotels and travel agents and convisgated their boats and told them not to come unless they pay into the local economy ?

Reminds of that content and their fantasies and absolutly lost of any sense of the reality 

 

[Poolie]

Too inconvenient. I did it for Uni years ago.

[Fester]

3 hours ago, Poolie said:

Too inconvenient. I did it for Uni years ago.

What. Cheerleader? 

[Poolie]

18 minutes ago, Fester said:

What. Cheerleader? 

Is that the best you can do? I'd give up if I was you.

[palooka]

Evergrande sale of its Hong Kong headquarters for $1.6 billion collapsed, so their problems still continue.

[AussieBob]

16 hours ago, palooka said:

Evergrande sale of its Hong Kong headquarters for $1.6 billion collapsed, so their problems still continue.

China's Central Bank has said everything is fine - move along people - nothing to see here   Remind you of anyone? 

[ThailandRyan]

Massive debt going to be moved off the books like they do here in Thailand for all of the NPL's and unsold houses.  Out of sight and out of mind, except for those on the hook and the neighbors of the vacant locations.  Hard to miss an entire Ghost city like China has.  Makes one wonder why they allowed those to be built and the towns that were built with them left vacant.  Actually quite eerie if I had to say so myself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie6zd3Rwu4c

Starts at 4:47 in the video where they show an entire empty ghost city.

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[AussieBob]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Massive debt going to be moved off the books like they do here in Thailand for all of the NPL's and unsold houses.  Out of sight and out of mind, except for those on the hook and the neighbors of the vacant locations.  Hard to miss an entire Ghost city like China has.  Makes one wonder why they allowed those to be built and the towns that were built with them left vacant.  Actually quite eerie if I had to say so myself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie6zd3Rwu4c

Starts at 4:47 in the video where they show an entire empty ghost city.

Yep - there are many of them too.  In 2018 the local ABC Govt channel did a show and claimed there were over 50 of them - no one knows the real numbers - visitors and journos are not allowed to freely roam anywhere in the country. Recent estimates say that over 65 million homes are unoccupied - mainly because they were mainly built and sold as an investment.  The biggest problem that has come to light is that the local authorities were on bonuses and payments to increase property construction, and they also took bribes and other incentives to build far more than were actually required.  The Central Authority had offered support and benefits to those Chinese buying property, and the whole thing skyrocketed and it all looked so good.  But the Central Authority has finally recognised the problem and has been cracking down and many local authorities have been sacked and some jailed. The net result is that property organisations like Evergrande were extremely highly leveraged and when the construction started to slow and the investment purchases started to stop, their businesses did not have enough money to pay debts.  

This is from a report yesterday - things are about to get very real: "International bond sales by Chinese developers have all but halted"     "Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its Financial Stability Review that vulnerabilities in China’s financial system remain elevated and authorities face a difficult balancing act."   

 https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/evergrandes-big-blow-to-china-developers-shut-out-of-global-debt-markets/news-story/768c9ebf9dea5d93ab4e4871f3b2a265

 

 

[palooka]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Massive debt going to be moved off the books like they do here in Thailand for all of the NPL's and unsold houses.  Out of sight and out of mind, except for those on the hook and the neighbors of the vacant locations.  Hard to miss an entire Ghost city like China has.  Makes one wonder why they allowed those to be built and the towns that were built with them left vacant.  Actually quite eerie if I had to say so myself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie6zd3Rwu4c

Starts at 4:47 in the video where they show an entire empty ghost city.

Reportedly there are 50 of these cities in China, many Billions (maybe trillions) of dollars of dead money.

Terrible waste of resources. 

[Stardust]

23 hours ago, palooka said:

Evergrande sale of its Hong Kong headquarters for $1.6 billion collapsed, so their problems still continue.

Yes an all deadlines for payments they failed.

[palooka]

22 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Yes an all deadlines for payments they failed.

Chinese state-owned Yuexiu Property was the company that pulled out. Not a good sign.

Evergrande are still trying to assess their off books debt, usually in cases like this they admit to about half of the real situation initially, with the truth coming out later. 

They need to sort out how many off-balance sheet debts the group has offshore, because many were underwritten at subsidiary levels who are going to try and hide as much as they can, and tricky dicky accounting has to be taken out of the equation to get to the truth.

By the end of the month China may just let them fail, too much to try and save.  Mind they have billions in Ghost cities  rotting away with no financial benefit to anyone, so maybe they'll throw a trillion dollars at this mess. Then they'll have the public trials for show and many will be thrown under the bus so to speak.

[palooka]

China faces challenges from 'mismanagement' at certain firms, says PBOC head (msn.com)

Maybe the PBOC is strongly hinting that there are also problems with small and mid size banks as a result of Evergrande mismanagement.

See a big clean out coming.

 

[palooka]

China plays down contagion fears as clock ticks on Evergrande (smh.com.au)

The actions of bond holders, particularly foreign holders of Chinese developers’ offshore bonds, would suggest that they believe they will be at the very tail end of the queued of creditors. The value of offshore bonds has been smashed in trading to fractions of their face value and yields have soared into the high teens.

The Chinese authorities will do what they can to blunt the fallout, particularly as it relates to individuals and the local government authorities reliant on property developments for large proportions of their income. Unfinished developments will be completed to avoid social stress and unrest ahead of next year’s Communist Party Congress, at which Xi will seek a third term.

Elections coming - look after the Chinese and the Offshore Bond Holders, well you have done your money.

[Stardust]

2 hours ago, palooka said:

China plays down contagion fears as clock ticks on Evergrande (smh.com.au)

The actions of bond holders, particularly foreign holders of Chinese developers’ offshore bonds, would suggest that they believe they will be at the very tail end of the queued of creditors. The value of offshore bonds has been smashed in trading to fractions of their face value and yields have soared into the high teens.

The Chinese authorities will do what they can to blunt the fallout, particularly as it relates to individuals and the local government authorities reliant on property developments for large proportions of their income. Unfinished developments will be completed to avoid social stress and unrest ahead of next year’s Communist Party Congress, at which Xi will seek a third term.

Elections coming - look after the Chinese and the Offshore Bond Holders, well you have done your money.

Thats why blackrock tried to convience investors to invest more in the chinese markets because their ass is burning and their invests lost. They realised this bubble is huge and will need trillions to handle it. 

[palooka]

15 minutes ago, Stardust said:

Thats why blackrock tried to convience investors to invest more in the chinese markets because their ass is burning and their invests lost. They realised this bubble is huge and will need trillions to handle it. 

Found over the years that when these guys (BLackrock etc) say buy, run like hell because they are selling out and need idiots to buy the stock they are dumping.