Collapse of China

[Stardust]

9 minutes ago, Poolie said:

On 27 July 2009, Chinese Ministry deputy chief engineer Zhang Shuguang stated that the United States, Saudi Arabia and Brazil are interested in Chinese high-speed railway technology. July 28. The Federal Railroad Administration and the US government are negotiating on the introduction of Chinese railway technology. On 14 October 2009, Prime minister of Russia Vladimir Putin and the Russian Railroad Administration signed an Organizing and developing railway in Russia memo with Ministry of Railways of China, planning to build a high-speed railway from Vladivostok to Khabarovsk.

Dont see anyone signing agreements with anyone else. Why is that?

A cooperation doesnt mean the tech inside is from any of these cooperations! Mercedes had to made cooperations ,too because of the Chinese regulators. And now the brainwashed think a mercedes produced in China is chinese tech or from chinese engineers. You guys are really brainwashed and show us all how far to the top they brainwash them these nationalistic ccp fanatics.

[Stardust]

19 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

You  really should have a shot at Japan's Toyota too then. Research how they reverse engineered several imported cars to become arguably the worlds best motor company.

By the way...patents expire.

I didn't say China or Japan in the early years never copied something but I said they would never agree in a contract that they can copy ir re engineering their tech. And sure for patents that are expired is something different. But outsourcing a production and tech transfer doesn't mean it is a Chinese invention or cooperations they have to do because of the chinese regulator that is the engineered by chinese! What do you think how many european companies are inside that or send their staff to build up productions in China?! Or where goes a big part of the tech export and components to from Germany. Everybody who work for such company in germany, europe or german companies who operating international or Asia is really loughing about such nonsense and fairy tales about China. And I can tell you that are a lot!

[Poolie]

1 hour ago, Convert54 said:

Maybe its propaganda and fairy tales? lmao

It all is, apparently.

[ThailandRyan]

Found this article very interesting, and I am sure the Politburo plants will be along to say its just more western propaganda and Chinas economy is just red hot right now.....

https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/10/04/evergrande-has-collapsed-the-next-is-bri/

China’s economy is going down quickly, even as the Evergrande collapse, and China’s real estate crisis unfolds. And now, the Evergrande collapse is also expected to hit the Chinese foreign policy. The Chinese foreign policy is presently dictated by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which involves large-scale debt financing by Chinese financial institutions, Chinese State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and local government financing vehicles.

 

Much of the Chinese housing sector activity is superficial, as 87 per cent of the new home sales have gone to existing property-owners and 90 percent of China’s households already own a housing property which makes the further expansion of the sector improbable.

Yet, Chinese real estate behemoths like Evergrande have financed most of their construction activity through loans from Chinese financial institutions and tightening of finance rules ends up exposing giants like Evergrande to China’s bursting real estate bubble.

Why China can’t bail out Evergrande:

China had earlier bailed out the state-owned Huarong Asset Management with total liabilities estimated at $238 billion. However, the Chinese government cannot bail out Evergrande. The reason is simple- Evergrande is a small part of China’s real estate problem.

The fact remains that the Chinese government is itself infested with piles of hidden debt. As per economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., China’s hidden local government debt has risen to over half the size of China’s economy. The total debt of Chinese local government financing vehicles or the LGFVs stands at a whopping $8.2 trillion.

 

[Convert54]

1 hour ago, Stardust said:

I didn't say China or Japan in the early years never copied something but I said they would never agree in a contract that they can copy ir re engineering their tech. And sure for patents that are expired is something different. But outsourcing a production and tech transfer doesn't mean it is a Chinese invention or cooperations they have to do because of the chinese regulator that is the engineered by chinese! What do you think how many european companies are inside that or send their staff to build up productions in China?! Or where goes a big part of the tech export and components to from Germany. Everybody who work for such company in germany, europe or german companies who operating international or Asia is really loughing about such nonsense and fairy tales about China. And I can tell you that are a lot!

So multinational corporations rushed to China with plant and tech so that their prize  products  could be produced cheaper and at apparently all rubbish quality .......why?

China has progressively developed it's own capacity to the point where it has been challenging foreign owned businesses. And naturally enough as with international enterprises anywhere by adopting and adapting technologies. Why re-invent the wheel ?

China's biggest problem is that the economic success that was basically thrust upon it is that it has not only raised the quality of life but also the cost of labor which in turn has resulted in a number of multinationals relocating to cheaper areas to maintain the extractable  profitability. I seriously doubt it will demonstrate any difference in quality because the production specifications are dictated in first instance by the business owners.

China on the other hand has developed enough to continue with an established industrial infrastructure and retain a greater percentage of the profit which to date has mostly been ripped out by the multinationals. At reduced volume it can also mean introduction of real quality but still in market competition.

A current limitation for China is the imposition of US sanctions aimed at preventing China any access to advanced microchip production machinery/tech on the alleged basis of? Despite that China is committed to develop the capacity anyway supplementary to the 30 billion of lower capacity microchips they already produce. In the meanwhile they are at similar disadvantage to other industrial nations due to a current shortage of advanced capable chips but it will also promote their development of alternative capacity.

Despite what presents to me as some indoctrinated hatred for China and presumption of any counter to your rightful but alternative opinions I am not any sympathizer of the CCP . I simply acknowledge that in spite of its draconian style of governance it has risen in the current world as a major influence and is not likely to simply subside in the interests of the  jaded West that clings to the idea of having cake and eating it too !

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Convert54]

18 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Found this article very interesting, and I am sure the Politburo plants will be along to say its just more western propaganda and Chinas economy is just red hot right now.....

https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/10/04/evergrande-has-collapsed-the-next-is-bri/

China’s economy is going down quickly, even as the Evergrande collapse, and China’s real estate crisis unfolds. And now, the Evergrande collapse is also expected to hit the Chinese foreign policy. The Chinese foreign policy is presently dictated by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which involves large-scale debt financing by Chinese financial institutions, Chinese State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and local government financing vehicles.

Much of the Chinese housing sector activity is superficial, as 87 per cent of the new home sales have gone to existing property-owners and 90 percent of China’s households already own a housing property which makes the further expansion of the sector improbable.

Yet, Chinese real estate behemoths like Evergrande have financed most of their construction activity through loans from Chinese financial institutions and tightening of finance rules ends up exposing giants like Evergrande to China’s bursting real estate bubble.

Why China can’t bail out Evergrande:

China had earlier bailed out the state-owned Huarong Asset Management with total liabilities estimated at $238 billion. However, the Chinese government cannot bail out Evergrande. The reason is simple- Evergrande is a small part of China’s real estate problem.

The fact remains that the Chinese government is itself infested with piles of hidden debt. As per economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., China’s hidden local government debt has risen to over half the size of China’s economy. The total debt of Chinese local government financing vehicles or the LGFVs stands at a whopping $8.2 trillion.

Can Goldman Sachs provide proof of that ? Or is it  just a speculative "nail in the coffin" attempt to obfuscate the reality of the global situation? Or more pointedly a specific Western nation?

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

Can Goldman Sachs provide proof of that ? Or is it  just a speculative "nail in the coffin" attempt to obfuscate the reality of the global situation? Or more pointedly a specific Western nation?

Where does Goldman Sachs come into the article I posted

Then there is this which aligns with the energy related issues reported in this thread earlier.

https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/09/27/china-is-shutting-down-aluminum-textile-and-many-more-industries/

 

China is losing the most basic necessity of human civilisation- electricity. Till now, we only knew how the Chinese steel mills, aluminum manufacturing and power sector may be suffering in lack of thermal coal. However, China’s power woes could be much bigger and brutal than what we imagined.

Javier Blas, Chief Energy Correspondent at Bloomberg News, tweeted, “CHINA ENERGY CRUNCH: The electricity shortages in China are worsening, and widening geographically. It’s getting so bad Beijing is now asking some food processors (like soybean crushing plants) to shut down.” A report says, “from aluminum smelters to textiles producers and soybean processing plants, factories are being ordered to curb activity or — in some instances — shut altogether.

 

China is the biggest coal consumer in the world. The Communist nation still consumes over 56 per cent coal as a part of its total energy consumption. The fossil fuel is the most vital part of China’s energy security.

Such a high concentration of thermal power in China means that any decline in coal supply hurts its ability to generate sufficient electricity. Presently, China is facing a serious shortfall of Australian coal. Last year, Beijing imposed an unofficial ban on Australian coal that immediately led to Southern provinces in the Communist country going dark.

Also, Chinese thermal power plants are accustomed to working on Australian coal and it is not possible for such power plants to replace all their equipment and start operating on non-Australian coal.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 14, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Convert54]

34 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

"As per economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., China’s hidden local government debt has risen to over half the size of China’s economy."

Was this not part of your post?

But yes undeniably China has a problem with electrical supply sufficiency. I have read various "explanations" as to cause but non seem to be as conclusive as to say it is due specifically to the CCP's ban on Australian coal.

 

[Poolie]

15 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

Was this not part of your post?

But yes undeniably China has a problem with electrical supply sufficiency. I have read various "explanations" as to cause but non seem to be as conclusive as to say it is due specifically to the CCP's ban on Australian coal.

It isnt.

Their own coal supply got mucked up during the golden week holidays, sorted within two days.

Sorry the truth hasnt caused the sky to fall but thats the case.

[Convert54]

1 minute ago, Poolie said:

It isnt.

Their own coal supply got mucked up during the golden week holidays, sorted within two days.

Sorry the truth hasnt caused the sky to fall but thats the case.

I was sort of aware of that but did not want to inhibit protracted expressions of "but but but what about...".

All in the interest of humanity and all that ! lol

 

[Poolie]

12 minutes ago, Convert54 said:

I was sort of aware of that but did not want to inhibit protracted expressions of "but but but what about...".

All in the interest of humanity and all that ! lol

You will always get the whatabouters. Lack of reality makes them itchy.

Like the local government debt. Which council doesnt owe its central government money? Will they pay it back? Of course not.

[Stardust]

2 hours ago, Convert54 said:

So multinational corporations rushed to China with plant and tech so that their prize  products  could be produced cheaper and at apparently all rubbish quality .......why?

China has progressively developed it's own capacity to the point where it has been challenging foreign owned businesses. And naturally enough as with international enterprises anywhere by adopting and adapting technologies. Why re-invent the wheel ?

China's biggest problem is that the economic success that was basically thrust upon it is that it has not only raised the quality of life but also the cost of labor which in turn has resulted in a number of multinationals relocating to cheaper areas to maintain the extractable  profitability. I seriously doubt it will demonstrate any difference in quality because the production specifications are dictated in first instance by the business owners.

China on the other hand has developed enough to continue with an established industrial infrastructure and retain a greater percentage of the profit which to date has mostly been ripped out by the multinationals. At reduced volume it can also mean introduction of real quality but still in market competition.

A current limitation for China is the imposition of US sanctions aimed at preventing China any access to advanced microchip production machinery/tech on the alleged basis of? Despite that China is committed to develop the capacity anyway supplementary to the 30 billion of lower capacity microchips they already produce. In the meanwhile they are at similar disadvantage to other industrial nations due to a current shortage of advanced capable chips but it will also promote their development of alternative capacity.

Despite what presents to me as some indoctrinated hatred for China and presumption of any counter to your rightful but alternative opinions I am not any sympathizer of the CCP . I simply acknowledge that in spite of its draconian style of governance it has risen in the current world as a major influence and is not likely to simply subside in the interests of the  jaded West that clings to the idea of having cake and eating it too !

First of all I said chinese engineering and standards and not from the multinational companies who outsourced productions to China because of lower of the costs and strategies at that time. Second is I am talking about what I personaly know and knowledge and you are talking about what you believe. Do you know how much people are working or involved in multinational companies or european companies in China, Asia and worldwide? They know exactly what is going on in China or to who they deliver what or building up productions make their service etc etc. They know and you talking about what you believe. Ask them what they think about the fairy tales from the chinese nationalists. All this companies who deliver the compenents, software, robot technic for production, machine builders and developper for production lines from Germany or any tech supplier they know it exactly and not by what they believe or ccp ideology propaganda. Thats the difference! 

[Stardust]

Just now, Stardust said:

First of all I said chinese engineering and standards and not from the multinational companies who outsourced productions to China because of lower of the costs and strategies at that time. Second is I am talking about what I personaly know and knowledge and you are talking about what you believe. Do you know how much people are working or involved in multinational companies or european companies in China, Asia and worldwide? They know exactly what is going on in China or to who they deliver what or building up productions make their service etc etc. They know and you talking about what you believe. Ask them what they think about the fairy tales from the chinese nationalists. All this companies who deliver the compenents, software, robot technic for production, machine builders and developper for production lines from Germany or any tech supplier they know it exactly and not by what they believe or ccp ideology propaganda. Thats the difference! 

By the way they can outsource any time to another country including their supply chain and they not need any Chinese for that!

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, Poolie said:

It isnt.

Their own coal supply got mucked up during the golden week holidays, sorted within two days.

Sorry the truth hasnt caused the sky to fall but thats the case.

So why are the blackouts still continuing? You claim Chinas coal supply was sorted out within two days yet industry, commercial and domestic users are still facing blackouts.

Let me add that many coal powerstations in China cannot use its domestic supply and have been specifically designed to burn Australian coal.

Now where are you getting Australian coal from? You cant get it from Aus, India has stopped selling it to you all so where exactly are you sourcing low Sulphur coal?

[AussieBob]

On 10/12/2021 at 9:02 PM, Rookiescot said:

I do not intrinsically disagree with you. However Thatcher and Reagan were the ones who removed the legislation/controls which resulted, ultimately, in the 2008 crash. 

Totally wrong - some cognitive bias there.  Bill Clinton removed many of the regulations controlling banking (and other financial things) in USA, especially the Glass–Steagall Legislation, which directly resulted in banks being 'allowed' to invest in speculative markets.  Clinton also created a 'Housing Program' that allowed poor Blacks and Hispanics (Dem voters) special rules and privileges and financial support when it came to buying housing.  The net result of that there was a massive growth of property speculation and liquidity that the banks were directly invested in and therefore supported. The end result of all that, because of the housing loans ownership laws in USA (one being people can just hand back the keys and walk away), meant that the inevitable 'property bubble' was going to bust one day.  With the removal of the Glass–Steagall Legislation, the USA banks used those property 'asset values' to underpin their speculative hedge fund trading with derivatives based on those property values. Banks then encouraged property speculators to get more mortgages to support the profitable sale of these derivatives. There were a few other factors, but those Legislative changes and the Poor Housing 'program' by Clinton caused the GFC directly.  The same thing is starting to happen in China - different but the same - massive over valuation of property has been used for decades to underpin GDP growth based on Government projects and spending.  Unlike the GHF it wont spread worldwide because banks after GFC became more 'regulated' and conservative - investing in China was not a wise thing and never will be.  Payback time is coming to China - slowly but surely it will come. 

PS - If the world banks and IMF had invested in China, like some of those rich bistirds wanted to, there would be soon coming an economic collapse worldwide that would make Covid look like a stormy rainy weekend. But luckily it wont be as bad.

[AussieBob]

8 hours ago, Stardust said:

First of all I said chinese engineering and standards and not from the multinational companies who outsourced productions to China because of lower of the costs and strategies at that time. Second is I am talking about what I personaly know and knowledge and you are talking about what you believe. Do you know how much people are working or involved in multinational companies or european companies in China, Asia and worldwide? They know exactly what is going on in China or to who they deliver what or building up productions make their service etc etc. They know and you talking about what you believe. Ask them what they think about the fairy tales from the chinese nationalists. All this companies who deliver the compenents, software, robot technic for production, machine builders and developper for production lines from Germany or any tech supplier they know it exactly and not by what they believe or ccp ideology propaganda. Thats the difference! 

Very true. I was involved in IT business or over 30 years - absolutely true.

 

[Rookiescot]

15 minutes ago, AussieBob said:

Totally wrong - some cognitive bias there.  Bill Clinton removed many of the regulations controlling banking (and other financial things) in USA, especially the Glass–Steagall Legislation, which directly resulted in banks being 'allowed' to invest in speculative markets.  Clinton also created a 'Housing Program' that allowed poor Blacks and Hispanics (Dem voters) special rules and privileges and financial support when it came to buying housing.  The net result of that there was a massive growth of property speculation and liquidity that the banks were directly invested in and therefore supported. The end result of all that, because of the housing loans ownership laws in USA (one being people can just hand back the keys and walk away), meant that the inevitable 'property bubble' was going to bust one day.  With the removal of the Glass–Steagall Legislation, the USA banks used those property 'asset values' to underpin their speculative hedge fund trading with derivatives based on those property values. Banks then encouraged property speculators to get more mortgages to support the profitable sale of these derivatives. There were a few other factors, but those Legislative changes and the Poor Housing 'program' by Clinton caused the GFC directly.  The same thing is starting to happen in China - different but the same - massive over valuation of property has been used for decades to underpin GDP growth based on Government projects and spending.  Unlike the GHF it wont spread worldwide because banks after GFC became more 'regulated' and conservative - investing in China was not a wise thing and never will be.  Payback time is coming to China - slowly but surely it will come. 

PS - If the world banks and IMF had invested in China, like some of those rich bistirds wanted to, there would be soon coming an economic collapse worldwide that would make Covid look like a stormy rainy weekend. But luckily it wont be as bad.

Cognitive bias? Physician heal thyself.

The Glass–Steagall act was hugely changed by Reagan in the 80's. You could argue that by the time Clinton got rid of it most of it was so watered down as to be totally useless.

Blame Ronald Reagan For Our Current Economic Crisis | History News Network 

[AussieBob]

18 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Cognitive bias? Physician heal thyself.

The Glass–Steagall act was hugely changed by Reagan in the 80's. You could argue that by the time Clinton got rid of it most of it was so watered down as to be totally useless.

Blame Ronald Reagan For Our Current Economic Crisis | History News Network 

Cognitive Bias - Lefties always blame Thatcher and Reagan for everything bad that happened in the past, but refuse to ever consider that 'their side' could ever be wrong. 

If you read my post again (properly) - you will see that I did not state that Reagan and Thatcher did not contribute to the GFC.  In response to your statement that Reagan and Thatcher alone caused the GFC - I stated that Clinton was the single biggest contributor, but not the only one.  You missed that point didn't you?  That is cognitive bias mate.  They were all to blame - Clinton more than the others.

I could throw some right wing links blaming Clinton, but I wont bother - read up on the Glass–Steagall Legislation - removal of that by Clinton was the key causal factor, which he did so that he could implement his 'Poor Housing Program' (for Dem votes). Banking Act of 1933 (Glass-Steagall) | Federal Reserve History

 

[gummy]

Perhaps this thread should be renamed "Collapse of the American Dream" rather than the "Collapse of China" as it appears that is what some people prefer to discuss.

Meanwhile, on the topic of China, yes I know that is boring for some of you on this Chinese thread,  it is good to note that the doom mongers of 2+  weeks ago have so far been proven wrong regarding Evergrande's collapse. Still there.

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, AussieBob said:

Cognitive Bias - Lefties always blame Thatcher and Reagan for everything bad that happened in the past, but refuse to ever consider that 'their side' could ever be wrong. 

If you read my post again (properly) - you will see that I did not state that Reagan and Thatcher did not contribute to the GFC.  In response to your statement that Reagan and Thatcher alone caused the GFC - I stated that Clinton was the single biggest contributor, but not the only one.  You missed that point didn't you?  That is cognitive bias mate.  They were all to blame - Clinton more than the others.

I could throw some right wing links blaming Clinton, but I wont bother - read up on the Glass–Steagall Legislation - removal of that by Clinton was the key causal factor, which he did so that he could implement his 'Poor Housing Program' (for Dem votes). Banking Act of 1933 (Glass-Steagall) | Federal Reserve History

The problem with the right wing desperately trying to rewrite history is that to do that you need to wait till everyone who was around at the time is dead. Otherwise its a pointless exercise and simply makes people look silly.

Thatcher and Reagan introduced neoliberalism. They deregulated the banking and financial institutions. Selling it as "They will regulate themselves". They let the genie out of the bottle. The right wing own it.

Clinton did indeed put the final nail in the coffin but it was the right wing governments of Thatcher and Reagan who did most of the damage.

[Rookiescot]

1 hour ago, gummy said:

Perhaps this thread should be renamed "Collapse of the American Dream" rather than the "Collapse of China" as it appears that is what some people prefer to discuss.

Meanwhile, on the topic of China, yes I know that is boring for some of you on this Chinese thread,  it is good to note that the doom mongers of 2+  weeks ago have so far been proven wrong regarding Evergrande's collapse. Still there.

You are fully aware they still have another two weeks to find the cash.

Tik tok.

[Fluke]

9 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

The problem with the right wing desperately trying to rewrite history is that to do that you need to wait till everyone who was around at the time is dead. Otherwise its a pointless exercise and simply makes people look silly.

Thatcher and Reagan introduced neoliberalism. They deregulated the banking and financial institutions. Selling it as "They will regulate themselves". They let the genie out of the bottle. The right wing own it.

Clinton did indeed put the final nail in the coffin but it was the right wing governments of Thatcher and Reagan who did most of the damage.

It would be nice if discussions didnt revert to the usual ; Left Wingers and Right wingers stand in opposing corners and yelling at each other "Its all your fault, we never do anything wrong"

[Rookiescot]

7 minutes ago, Fluke said:

It would be nice if discussions didnt revert to the usual ; Left Wingers and Right wingers stand in opposing corners and yelling at each other "Its all your fault, we never do anything wrong"

You will be hard pressed to find me ever saying that the left never do anything wrong.

[Fluke]

1 minute ago, Rookiescot said:

You will be hard pressed to find me ever saying that the left never do anything wrong.

OK, go ahead, do state what the Left have done wrong . 

[gummy]

24 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

You are fully aware they still have another two weeks to find the cash.

Tik tok.

At the beginning of this thread some claimed that Evergrande had collapsed. I questioned the actuality of that and I was correct, it had not collapsed hence those posters claims were false unsurprisingly.  That was on the 5th Oct and further comments suggested it would happen "shortly" ,if you care to go back and read the thread. Well shortly is a relative term so now you are extending the original "shortly" from the 5th by a further 2 weeks ?  What happens then when you are proven wrong, will shortly become maybe ? or will it be recognition that China is not on the verge of collapse and simply that the US has had their time and a new economy is becoming more dominant ?